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Thread: Playoff Push

  1. #26
    Member Sollozzo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Playoff Push

    The playoffs are going to be nuts. I honestly cannot wait.

    I think the Falcons are a great candidate to pull an 05 Colts and lose the divisional game at home after a phenomenal regular season.

    I just hope the Colts stay matched up against Baltimore. It will be extremely tough to get a playoff win there, but I'd sure as hell rather go there than Foxboro.

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  3. #27

    Default Re: Playoff Push

    I want the Ravens to lose their two remaining games, Cincinnati winning their last two, and then Baltimore drop to #6. The Ravens are imploding big time, and would love to see them on the road at #3 (presumably, the Patriots). Plus Cincinnati seems a fraud to me too.

    I think the Ravens are a bottom 10 team at this point, even if Ray Lewis returns. And yes, they talk too much, so it would be glorious to see them smacked down.

    That trip to Denver in round 2 doesn't appeal though(Pats perspective). Too bad they finish with the Browns and Chiefs, both in Mile High. They seem to be locked in for a bye.
    The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!)

  4. #28
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    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Yeah I'd be absolutely stunned if Denver blew those games. Manning won't allow that now that he is sniffing a bye and home field advantage in a potential New England matchup.

  5. #29
    BoilerUpMan Really?'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
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    The Texans having the highest odds of winning the Super Bowl, Falcons #2, and Ravens #7 are three things that are wrong with it. Seahawks are too low.

    If you had to choose between two groups to have your SB winner, which would you pick:
    1) Texans, Falcons (they say 45%)
    2) Broncos, 49ers, Packers, Patriots (they say combined 43%).

    I'd take group 2 easily.

    The stats seem to be weighting the whole season's play equally. It needs a recent performance bias, like Sagarin uses in his models
    OK, I mean, I don't thnk that is too far fetched, the Texans had a bad game against the Pats, and Schaub was off, but they should have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, and wouldn't have to face the Pats or Broncos until the AFC championship. Falcons, I mean even through their losses they have been the most consistent team in the NFC, SF has a good chance, but if Kap is off then they might as well consider it a lose.

    I can say I don't think it is ridiculous but I can see your argument, I think that the Texans and Falcons have the inside track, but I say the Superbowl will be Texans, Falcons, Broncos, 49ers, Packers or Patriots, just like you.

    Just wondering if you had a mouse(an actual mouse I mean, lol) to your head who would you choose to win the championship at this point in time?
    Why so SERIOUS

  6. #30

    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Really? View Post
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    Just wondering if you had a mouse(an actual mouse I mean, lol) to your head who would you choose to win the championship at this point in time?
    49ers, I think. They showed last night that since they do not rest their D starters, they can get gassed. But I don't see another team except maybe Green Bay that can exploit that in the NFC. And D travels on the road well
    The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!)

  7. #31
    The New Gold Swagger travmil's Avatar
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    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Wow....Sanchez just threw away his career with the Jets...

    Jets lose, the Colts are virtually in, even if they lose out. Cincy would need to lose to Pitt and beat Balt in week 17, Pitt win out, and then both teams would need like 4 different (and seemingly unrelated and irrelevant) games to break their way each week to get SOV tiebreaker over the Colts. If even one of those 8 games goes the wrong way for Cincy and Pitt, the Colts are in. If the Colts beat KC they are in regardless.
    Last edited by travmil; 12-17-2012 at 11:59 PM.

  8. #32

    Default Re: Playoff Push

    This is what it would take for the Colts to miss the playoffs.

    1. Colts lose against both KC and HOU AND
    2. PIT beats CIN AND
    3. CIN beats BAL AND
    4. SD beats NYJ AND
    5. OAK beats CAR AND
    6. MIN beats HOU AND
    7. NYJ beats BUF AND
    8. KC beats DEN (!!!) AND
    9. CHI beats DET AND
    10. JAC beats TEN AND
    11. NE beats MIA AND
    12. PIT beats CLE

  9. #33
    BoilerUpMan Really?'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by PacersHomer View Post
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    This is what it would take for the Colts to miss the playoffs.

    1. Colts lose against both KC and HOU AND
    2. PIT beats CIN AND
    3. CIN beats BAL AND
    4. SD beats NYJ AND
    5. OAK beats CAR AND
    6. MIN beats HOU AND
    7. NYJ beats BUF AND
    8. KC beats DEN (!!!) AND
    9. CHI beats DET AND
    10. JAC beats TEN AND
    11. NE beats MIA AND
    12. PIT beats CLE
    Dude Colts already mad the Playoffs, since the Jets lost....
    Why so SERIOUS

  10. #34

    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Really? View Post
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    Dude Colts already mad the Playoffs, since the Jets lost....
    Not true. The Colts could lose on strength of victory to the Bengals in a tie-breaker.

  11. #35
    BoilerUpMan Really?'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by PacersHomer View Post
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    Not true. The Colts could lose on strength of victory to the Bengals in a tie-breaker.
    if 12 things happen, 1,2,3,4,5,6 things seem pretty unlikely to happen... so ok, we will say no they have not, but there is lile a 99.9% chance they will, and if it doesn't then I will be extremellllllllllllllllllllllllllllly shocked
    Why so SERIOUS

  12. #36

    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Pretty sure those 12 things don't have to happen.

    If somehow we lose out, and the Steelers win out, and the Bengals win in week 17 we are out,

    The yahoo scenario thing says we would be in. But we would have the same record as the Steelers and Bengals, and unless I am mistaken we would have the same record against common opponents with both of them.

    Wait, maybe I'm wrong on that. Actually I think I am. Seems like Steelers and Bengals would go up against each other since the first step of the rules use head to head matchups. Steelers would have won 2-0, so that eliminates the Bengals. Then its just us and the Steelers. Steelers would have the tie breaker and we would be a sixth seed.

    So yeah it seems like we are in the playoffs.

  13. #37

    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad-Mad-Mario View Post
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    Pretty sure those 12 things don't have to happen.

    If somehow we lose out, and the Steelers win out, and the Bengals win in week 17 we are out,

    The yahoo scenario thing says we would be in. But we would have the same record as the Steelers and Bengals, and unless I am mistaken we would have the same record against common opponents with both of them.

    Wait, maybe I'm wrong on that. Actually I think I am. Seems like Steelers and Bengals would go up against each other since the first step of the rules use head to head matchups. Steelers would have won 2-0, so that eliminates the Bengals. Then its just us and the Steelers. Steelers would have the tie breaker and we would be a sixth seed.

    So yeah it seems like we are in the playoffs.
    Yes literally everything up there has to happen for the Bengals to have a better strength of victory than us.

  14. #38
    Member Sollozzo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Let's just beat the Chiefs on Sunday so we don't have to worry about 38 different scenarios. I almost don't want them in the playoffs if they can't beat the pathetic Chiefs. Gotta win that game. If we win that game, then we will be an extremely respectable 4-4 on the road. That would be incredible for this young team. I remember at the beginning of the season I was worried about us getting just one road win.
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 12-18-2012 at 09:09 AM.

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  16. #39

    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by PacersHomer View Post
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    Yes literally everything up there has to happen for the Bengals to have a better strength of victory than us.
    That doesnt even matter though. A three way tie breaker eliminates teams based on head to head matchups. Which would eliminate the bengals. Then it would be between us and the steelers and they would get the 5th seed

  17. #40

    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Head-to-head only matters in a three way tie when one team owns the head-to-head advantage over both of the other teams.

    odds are 99%, so yes there is one awfully convoluted freaky scenario where the Colts don't make it, and another where the Dolphins (1% chance) do make it. Neither will happen.
    The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!)

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  19. #41
    BoilerUpMan Really?'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    Let's just beat the Chiefs on Sunday so we don't have to worry about 38 different scenarios. I almost don't want them in the playoffs if they can't beat the pathetic Chiefs. Gotta win that game. If we win that game, then we will be an extremely respectable 4-4 on the road. That would be incredible for this young team. I remember at the beginning of the season I was worried about us getting just one road win.
    It is only one scenario, and that is all of those things happen, but I agree a win would be good for more than one reason, playoffs are all about momentum, beat KC and then beat the Texans, then Baltimore and put up a good game verse the Broncos, or Texans again.
    Why so SERIOUS

  20. #42
    THE WITCH IS DEAD!!! Coopdog23's Avatar
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    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
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    Head-to-head only matters in a three way tie when one team owns the head-to-head advantage over both of the other teams.

    odds are 99%, so yes there is one awfully convoluted freaky scenario where the Colts don't make it, and another where the Dolphins (1% chance) do make it. Neither will happen.
    We won't have to worry about it because we'll beat KC.
    "We want Miami"

  21. #43

    Default Re: Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by PacersHomer View Post
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    This is what it would take for the Colts to miss the playoffs.

    1. Colts lose against both KC and HOU AND
    2. PIT beats CIN AND
    3. CIN beats BAL AND
    4. SD beats NYJ AND
    5. OAK beats CAR AND
    6. MIN beats HOU AND
    7. NYJ beats BUF AND
    8. KC beats DEN (!!!) AND
    9. CHI beats DET AND
    10. JAC beats TEN AND
    11. NE beats MIA AND
    12. PIT beats CLE
    The Yahoo playoff scenario confirms this with one exception- Minnesota vs. Houston doesn't matter.

    So 12 things have to line up:
    1. Colts lose against KC
    2. Colts lose against HOU
    AND
    3. PIT beats CIN AND
    4. CIN beats BAL AND
    5. SD beats NYJ AND
    6. OAK beats CAR AND
    7. NYJ beats BUF AND
    8. KC beats DEN (!!!) AND
    9. CHI beats DET AND
    10. JAC beats TEN AND
    11. NE beats MIA AND
    12. PIT beats CLE

    so many because strength of victory tiebreakers get involved.

    If you considered each game a 50-50 coin toss, (0.5)^12 = 0.000244,

    thus a 0.0244% chance the Colts don't make it.


    http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffs...01&16=00005584
    The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!)

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