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Thread: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Thanks god for the Pacers free throw defense ...............
    OK, so shooting 53% FT instead of 67% FT accounts for 6 of the 22 fewer points they scored this game. Granting for the sake of argument that those misses can't be attributed to the Pacers defense (it could be argued that good defense forces you to work harder thus making you tired, but we'll accept "no effect" for now), what lucky circumstances explain the other 16 points differential?

    What effect on an opponent's offense do you expect from an "average" or "good" defense? What improvement do you expect to an opponent's offense from a "bad" defense? What special effects would you expect from a "great" or even "elite" defense?

    You have always seemed to really focus on defense in your player evaluations, so I'm asking you to explain what it is you see that says that a defense that remains #1 in opponent FG%, second in opponent 3pt%, and third in opponent points per game is merely "good"?
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    OK, so shooting 53% FT instead of 67% FT accounts for 6 of the 22 fewer points they scored this game. Granting for the sake of argument that those misses can't be attributed to the Pacers defense (it could be argued that good defense forces you to work harder thus making you tired, but we'll accept "no effect" for now), what lucky circumstances explain the other 16 points differential?

    What effect on an opponent's offense do you expect from an "average" or "good" defense? What improvement do you expect to an opponent's offense from a "bad" defense? What special effects would you expect from a "great" or even "elite" defense?

    You have always seemed to really focus on defense in your player evaluations, so I'm asking you to explain what it is you see that says that a defense that remains #1 in opponent FG%, second in opponent 3pt%, and third in opponent points per game is merely "good"?
    I still don't understand why you keep thinking that someway somehow I'm trashing the Pacers defense, all I'm saying is that the Pacers defense was not the only issue with the Lakers in that game, there is a lot s*** going on with the Lakers, yes you can show me all the stats to prove one point or another but the fact is that the Lakers missed a lot of free throws, they had a bunch of guy missing open shots after open shots and for some reason they had that Morris player in the game jacking up shots too.

    Again I'm not saying that the Pacers don't have an elite defense, all I'm saying is that before coming out with the celebration and before acting like the Pacers are the new era "bad boys Detroit Pistons" you need to look at the whole picture in why the Pacers beat the Lakers that's all.

    Another thing people keep missing is that the Lakers are also missing Nash and Blake, those two guys are a huge part of their offense, replacing those two with scrubs like Morris and Duhon is as bad as replacing DC/Hill with AJ Price maybe worse.

    For the sake of argument and to stop with this argument I'm going to say that the Pacers defense had about 60% to do with the Lakers loss with a huge percentage going to them missing Nash/Blake, missing open easy shots, missing free throws, Gasol dissapearing and the new coach with a new system.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Again I'm not saying that the Pacers don't have an elite defense, all I'm saying is that before coming out with the celebration and before acting like the Pacers are the new era "bad boys Detroit Pistons" you need to look at the whole picture in why the Pacers beat the Lakers that's all.

    No one has said anything close to it, nor implied it. You always fall back on the defense that you're just fighting extremism, but the only extremist things being said are the ones that you make up.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    No one has said anything close to it, nor implied it. You always fall back on the defense that you're just fighting extremism, but the only extremist things being said are the ones that you make up.
    I'm not the one celebrating that the Pacers defense kept a team like the Los Angeles Lakers under 77% shooting while not providing other facts, you like to use numbers to prove points while forgetting other points you are the master of doing that.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I'm not the one celebrating that the Pacers defense kept a team like the Los Angeles Lakers under 77% shooting while not providing other facts, you like to use numbers to prove points while forgetting other points you are the master of doing that.
    You are in your own little world. Everytime someone brings up facts to dispute your claims, you tell people that you don't need data because you watch the game, and now you're criticizing me for supposedly not providing facts, when that's pretty much all I've done.

    I've provided the Lakers season FT%, their season FG%, the number of games they've shot below the NBA FG% median, the Pacers defensive fg%, and mutliple other stats, and here you are complaining that I don't use any.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Again I'm not saying that the Pacers don't have an elite defense, all I'm saying is that before coming out with the celebration and before acting like the Pacers are the new era "bad boys Detroit Pistons" you need to look at the whole picture in why the Pacers beat the Lakers that's all.
    And I'm saying that even AFTER looking at everything else the Pacers defense remains outstanding, so why NOT celebrate it? "Not the only thing" doesn't mean "not worth getting excited about".
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Hey guys you know how we would really win a bunch of games, go sign or trade for every under 6'3" scoring combo guard who becomes available and doesn't play a lick of defense.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    And I'm saying that even AFTER looking at everything else the Pacers defense remains outstanding, so why NOT celebrate it? "Not the only thing" doesn't mean "not worth getting excited about".
    Yes you can get excited about it but when somebody else brings another point of view to the table you shouldn't just automatically go into "Pacers defensive mode" and forget that we are all here to have open arguments.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Yes you can get excited about it but when somebody else brings another point of view to the table you shouldn't just automatically go into "Pacers defensive mode" and forget that we are all here to have open arguments.
    Umm, did I not provide a whole BUNCH of data to support the position?

    No one was arguing that you were wrong for bringing up the Lakers offense, just that the Pacers defense was still terrific. The data bears that out. How is that not having an "open argument"?
    BillS

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Umm, did I not provide a whole BUNCH of data to support the position?

    No one was arguing that you were wrong for bringing up the Lakers offense, just that the Pacers defense was still terrific. The data bears that out. How is that not having an "open argument"?
    Oh yes, some people think I'm trashing the Pacers defense or that I live in "my own little world" so I'm wrong for bringing up the Lakers offense issues.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Oh yes, some people think I'm trashing the Pacers defense or that I live in "my own little world" so I'm wrong for bringing up the Lakers offense issues.
    What was the point of bringing up the Lakers offense though? It wasn't like our defense didn't do a great job. It isn't like the Lakers offense was just slightly worse than usual.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    No one said you're wrong for merely brining it up. It's a logical conclusion. You're wrong because you dismiss factual data and try to stranglehold your opinion that directly contradicts the data being brought up to you.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    OK, so shooting 53% FT instead of 67% FT accounts for 6 of the 22 fewer points they scored this game. Granting for the sake of argument that those misses can't be attributed to the Pacers defense (it could be argued that good defense forces you to work harder thus making you tired, but we'll accept "no effect" for now), what lucky circumstances explain the other 16 points differential?
    I would imagine the snail's pace that that we play at would factor into some of those points.

    Still, pace adjusted, we're currently an elite defensive team despite being the worst team at forcing turnovers in the NBA.
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Oh yes, some people think I'm trashing the Pacers defense or that I live in "my own little world" so I'm wrong for bringing up the Lakers offense issues.
    That's because the WAY you brought it up really did sound like you were saying the Pacers defense had little or nothing to do with the Lakers scoring 77 points.

    For example, this quote in reply to defensive statistics from the postgame thread:

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Both teams shot a horrible percentage last night, both teams missed a lot of open uncontested shots, both teams missed a lot of free throws, lets look a this numbers you are posting with a truck load of salt
    "a truck load of salt" really is a way of saying "pretty close to worthless". There are ways of saying "look at the other factors" without saying "the factors you are already looking at aren't valid" - just saying "a GRAIN of salt" would get the point across without slamming the opposing point of view.

    It's a turn of phrase or a habit or just your way of poking people whose glasses are a little rosier, but it seems like any time anybody brings up anything that is good about the team you contradict it. Which is fine in its way, but you can't then blame people for taking every comment you make as being one meant to argue with any good things they said - 90 out of 100 times they would be right.
    BillS

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Ok Bills sorry for not letting you all celebrate, I promise I'll let you do it next time my bad, I'm done with this conversation because this is not going anywhere, once again sorry.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    I mean saying the Pacers are an elite defensive team doesn't mean, woohoo we are one of the best teams in the NBA. If anything it just emphasizes how putrid and pathetic the offense has been and still was in the Lakers game.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Both teams shot a horrible percentage last night, both teams missed a lot of open uncontested shots



    The Pacers shooting a low percentage is normal for them against almost every team they play. For the Lakers that
    is not normal and I think the Pacers defense is a very likely cause for it. The defense actually could be better
    especially where creating turnovers is concerned.
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Ok Bills sorry for not letting you all celebrate, I promise I'll let you do it next time my bad, I'm done with this conversation because this is not going anywhere, once again sorry.
    Did you read what I said or did it just not make sense? I really am trying to explain why your statements get people's backs up more than you clearly think they should have.
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Hey guys you know how we would really win a bunch of games, go sign or trade for every under 6'3" scoring combo guard who becomes available and doesn't play a lick of defense.
    Sounds good to me. Monta Ellis anybody?

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    I mean saying the Pacers are an elite defensive team doesn't mean, woohoo we are one of the best teams in the NBA. If anything it just emphasizes how putrid and pathetic the offense has been and still was in the Lakers game.
    No question. We're the 2nd best defensive team in the league. And we are actually worse offensively than we are good defensively if that makes any sense.
    Last edited by BRushWithDeath; 11-29-2012 at 10:54 PM.
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Considering the current state of our defense/offense, all I can say is get well soon, Danny. He probably bumps us offensively from terrible to average, and that's enough.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Super quick L.A. thoughts....

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    So far the average ranking for the teams the Pacers have faced in both FG% and PPG is 16th. The Pacers have played 6 games against teams ranked in the top 10 for FG% and 4 games against teams in the top 10 of PPG. However this includes the Spurs twice.

    On the other hand they also only have 6 games against teams in the bottom 10 in FG% and 4 in the bottom 10 of PPG.

    So an average distribution of opponents, not too hard nor too easy.


    BUT...only 4 times out of 15 have teams scored above their average PPG. The Spurs by 2 the other night, the Hornets by 13 in OT, the TWolves by 4 and the Kings by 4 in 2OT. SIX times they've held opponents to at least 5 points below their average, contrasted with only 1 team going for more than 5 points over their average...and that's in an OT game. They've held 4 opponents to more than 10 below their average PPG and 3 of those teams are top 11 FG% teams (Dallas, New York, LAL)


    This suggests a non-normalized random distribution. We should expect an average set of opponents to yield about a 50/50 split of above/below their scoring average. Instead we have clear weighting toward many teams scoring far below their norm and only a few getting above their norm even a small amount.
    Sample size simply too small to reject the null hypothesis of an average defense. But I appreciate the attempt. In fact, what I don't understand with this sabermetrics stuff is how, in any sport but baseball, you ever get small enough standard errors to make any inferences?

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