ZAP THE ZARDS!
-VS-
Game Time Start: 7:00 PM EST
Where: Verizon Center, Washington, DC
Officials: R. Garretson, K. Fehr, G. Zielinski
Media Notes: Indiana Notes, Washington Notes
Television: FOX Sports Indiana / Comcast Sports Net
Radio: WFNI 1070 AM / WJFK 106.7 FM, WFED 1500 AM
NBA Feeds:
*NBA Audio League Pass (available free to NBA All-Access members)
*NBA League Pass Broadband (subscription req'd)
*NBA League Pass Broadband (subscription req'd)
REMINDER: Per PD policy, please do not share a link to, describe how to search for, request a link to, or request a PM about streaming video of a NBA game that is not coming directly through the NBA. Not even in a "wink-wink, nudge-nudge, know-what-I-mean" round-about sort of way. Thank you
|
|
PACERS Danny Granger - left knee tendinosis (out) WIZARDS John Wall - left patella stress injury (out) Nene - left foot Plantar Fasciitis (out) |
Tim Donahue: Brick by Brick - How the Pacers Can Repair Their Offense After nine games, Indiana has the second-worst offense in the league. Scoring only 92 points per 100 possessions, the Pacers are only bested in impotence by the winless Washington Wizards. Things went from bad to worse this week, when the Pacers lost on their home floor despite holding the Toronto Raptors to five fourth-quarter points, then completely mailed in a game in Milwaukee. Losers of six of their first nine, Indiana Coach Frank Vogel and his squad are searching for answers, and so are a lot of Pacer observers. It’s one thing to lose some games; it’s another altogether to do so looking like they have — especially after billing yourself as an Eastern Conference contender for the past six months. The Four Factors of Success There are so many aspects that go into scoring points. The general offensive scheme, ball movement, setting precise screens, cutting, execution, individual playmaking, transition, exploiting mismatches, simply making shots. All are undeniably important. But when we talk about offense from a statistical standpoint, we mostly look at the Four Factors of Basketball Success, a concept identified by Dean Oliver in his attempt to understand how teams win basketball games. All the less-tangible stuff matters, but we can analyze effectiveness pretty well by just looking at shooting percentage (eFG%), offensive rebounding (ORB%), turnovers (TO%) and getting to the line (FT/FGA). Throughout the years, good NBA offenses have most often been those that shoot well. Meaning, eFG% (effective field goal percentage) has had the highest correlation with offensive rating. The following chart shows the historical correlation each of the Four Factors has with overall offensive rating. For the less-mathematically inclined, the chart shows one basic truth: eFG% has a very high connection to overall offense while the other three factors do not. In short, you can much more easily create good offense by shooting the ball well than you can by not turning the ball over, drawing fouls and grabbing offensive boards. Those three (in that order) have an increasingly low correlation to creating good offense in today’s NBA. Knowing this, it should come as no surprise that the Pacers’ rank of 29th in offensive rating has a lot to do with its dead-last ranking in eFG%. At 43.6%, they are 5 full percentage points below the league average of 48.8%. Ugly, ugly stuff. Interestingly, however, the Pacers were not a good shooting team last year. Despite finishing with the league’s 5th best record and its 7th best offense, they shot just 47.4 eFG%, which put them 23rd in the league (and 1.3% below league average). So what gives? How were they able to score so well last year while shooting poorly? And why aren’t they doing the same this season? Pulling the Right Levers It comes down to what I call the ”levers” that coaches can pull in order to guide their teams to victory. Essentially, last season Indiana, at the direction of Frank Vogel, was pulling the right levers in the non-shooting areas of offense to make up for missing so many shots. And this year, the team is not. Last year, as noted, the Pacers ranked 23rd in shooting. But they made up for it by being the 7th best at protecting the ball (TOV%), 2nd best at geting to the line (FT/FGA), and 5th best at rebounding their own misses (ORB%). Essentially, they were elite at everything we measure in terms of team offense other than making shots. And that was enough to make them one of the league’s best offenses — and arguably its best when its starters were on the floor. This year, however, they have declined when it comes to shooting — and in terms of almost everywhere else. Though just as strong on the offensive glass (currently 5th in the NBA), the Pacers have been bad at scoring from the line (21st – affected both by lack of opportunities and the fact they’re only shooting 73.7% when they get there) and atrocious at taking care of the ball (27th). While there are lots of ways to have success, the easiest, most consistent way is to say, “Get good shots.” But the Pacers’ offense does not focus on that, the strongest lever. It is not designed to consistently “get good shots,” at least by certain measures. Frank Vogel has built game plans to get certain shots, but not necessarily what most people today consider “good” shots. Getting Good Shots One way to get a general gauge of the quality of an offense’s shots is to look at their distribution by zone. There are five basic zones where players can shoot from: “Restricted Area,” “In the Paint (non-Restricted Area),” “Mid-Range,” “Corner 3,” and “Above the Break 3.” The chart above shows the NBA’s average eFG% for each zone since the 2001 season (including the first two weeks of 2013). Unsurprisingly, the Restricted Area — which is basically everything within 5 feet — has the highest rate of success, at over 59%. From there, the next best locations are the Corner 3 and then the Above the Break 3. Then comes everything else...CONTINUE READING AT 8p9s |
Mike Prada: Consistency, confidence is clearly lacking The Washington Wizards lack consistency and confidence, and while their problems go much deeper, these issues are most fundamental. Two buzzwords dominated the Washington Wizards' locker room following yet another loss, this time to the Utah Jazz: "confidence," and "consistency." They are just buzzwords, of course, used as shorthand to define a problem that takes many more words to accurately portray. From the outside looking in, it'd be foolish to suggest that the 0-8 Wizards would be cured with a little more confidence and a little more consistency. That conveniently ignores important things like "lack of talent" and "lack of offensive threats." But inside a locker room, those buzzwords are fundamental concepts. If you don't believe you can fix a problem, you're never going to figure out what elements actually need to be fixed. If you're not always mentally prepared to make the contribution you are expected to make, you're never going to actually make that contribution. And so, here the Wizards are, a battered team that cannot lose the very reason to keep fighting. "You got to play relaxed, you got to play confident. We've got to keep at it," Randy Wittman said, seemingly out of easy answers. For Wittman in particular, the issue of consistency is especially vexing. He can't point to a single player that gives him the same contributions every night. Sometimes, Kevin Seraphin looks like the league's next dominant post scorer, and sometimes, like last night, he looks completely lost. Sometimes, Bradley Beal is making shots; sometimes, he's not and nothing else happens. Sometimes, Trevor Ariza is the open- court dynamo that Ernie Grunfeld thought he was getting when he traded for him last June; sometimes, he's a shot-clanker that stops giving a good enough defensive effort and doesn't help a team anywhere. Sometimes, Chris Singleton is aggressive; sometimes, he stands back and lets himself get pushed around. "In a perfect world, I'd have eight or nine guys and I'd play them every night. They know when they're coming in, who's starting, who's coming off the bench," Wittman said. "I'm sometimes right now not knowing who's going to play tonight. Who's up, who's down. We just don't have the consistency of, really, anybody." This, of course, begs several questions. Are the players not taking enough steps to be mentally ready to play? Are they letting outside forces dictate their effort? Does Wittman need to do more to promote consistency by setting a rotation instead of waiting for players to really earn their spots? A.J. Price thinks the issue may be the players' ability to accept criticism. The Wizards' starting point guard has certainly been around the block in this area, having to deal with head coaches that yo-yoed his minutes and threatened his confidence. Last night, he took an interesting stand on the mental state of some of his teammates. "We've got young guys on the team who kind of get caught up in what's said or how the coach says it. You can't do that," he said. "You just have to be confident in yourself and what's gotten you here. It's gotten you here for a reason. Just do what you know how to do." It's impossible to know who Price is talking about, but it's also not especially surprising. Young players lose confidence easily, and it's on everyone associated with the team to do their best to maintain it. Wittman admitted the same in his press conference, emphatically stating...CONTINUE READING AT BULLETS FOREVER |
Pacers Mike Wells @MikeWellsNBA Jared Wade @8pts9secs Tim Donahue @TimDonahue8p9s Tom Lewis @indycornrows |
Wizards Michael Lee @MrMichaelLee Mike Prada @MikePradaSBN Kyle Weidie @Truth_About_It WizzNutzz @wzzntzz |
Comment