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Thread: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

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    Default 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    ZAP THE ZARDS!



    -VS-



    Game Time Start: 7:00 PM EST
    Where: Verizon Center, Washington, DC
    Officials: R. Garretson, K. Fehr, G. Zielinski

    Media Notes: Indiana Notes, Washington Notes
    Television: FOX Sports Indiana / Comcast Sports Net
    Radio: WFNI 1070 AM / WJFK 106.7 FM, WFED 1500 AM
    NBA Feeds:

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    Season Records: (W-L)
    4-7
    Away: 1-6
    East: 2-5
    0-8
    Home: 0-3
    East: 0-6
    Upcoming Games:
    Nov 21
    Nov 23
    Nov 27
    Nov 30
    vs
    vs
    at
    at
    7:00pm
    8:00pm
    10:00pm
    10:00pm

    Projected Starting Lineup:
    HIBBERT
    WEST
    GEORGE
    STEPHENSON
    HILL
    Projected Starting Lineup:
    OKAFOR
    VESELY
    ARIZA
    CRAWFORD
    PRICE



    PACERS
    Danny Granger - left knee tendinosis (out)




    WIZARDS
    John Wall - left patella stress injury (out)
    Nene - left foot Plantar Fasciitis (out)


    Minimally Relevant Video:


    Semi-Relevant Video:


    Eight Points, Nine Seconds Review:
    Tim Donahue: Brick by Brick - How the Pacers Can Repair Their Offense

    After nine games, Indiana has the second-worst offense in the league. Scoring only 92
    points per 100 possessions, the Pacers are only bested in impotence by the winless
    Washington Wizards. Things went from bad to worse this week, when the Pacers lost
    on their home floor despite holding the Toronto Raptors to five fourth-quarter points,
    then completely mailed in a game in Milwaukee.

    Losers of six of their first nine, Indiana Coach Frank Vogel and his squad are searching
    for answers, and so are a lot of Pacer observers. It’s one thing to lose some games; it’s
    another altogether to do so looking like they have — especially after billing yourself as
    an Eastern Conference contender for the past six months.

    The Four Factors of Success

    There are so many aspects that go into scoring points. The general offensive scheme,
    ball movement, setting precise screens, cutting, execution, individual playmaking,
    transition, exploiting mismatches, simply making shots. All are undeniably important.
    But when we talk about offense from a statistical standpoint, we mostly look at the
    Four Factors of Basketball Success, a concept identified by Dean Oliver in his attempt
    to understand how teams win basketball games.

    All the less-tangible stuff matters, but we can analyze effectiveness pretty well by just
    looking at shooting percentage (eFG%), offensive rebounding (ORB%), turnovers (TO%)
    and getting to the line (FT/FGA). Throughout the years, good NBA offenses have most
    often been those that shoot well. Meaning, eFG% (effective field goal percentage) has
    had the highest correlation with offensive rating.

    The following chart shows the historical correlation each of the Four Factors has with
    overall offensive rating.

    Correlation of The Four Factors to Offensive Rating

    For the less-mathematically inclined, the chart shows one basic truth: eFG% has a very
    high connection to overall offense while the other three factors do not. In short, you can
    much more easily create good offense by shooting the ball well than you can by not
    turning the ball over, drawing fouls and grabbing offensive boards. Those three (in that
    order) have an increasingly low correlation to creating good offense in today’s NBA.
    Knowing this, it should come as no surprise that the Pacers’ rank of 29th in offensive
    rating has a lot to do with its dead-last ranking in eFG%. At 43.6%, they are 5 full
    percentage points below the league average of 48.8%. Ugly, ugly stuff.

    Interestingly, however, the Pacers were not a good shooting team last year. Despite
    finishing with the league’s 5th best record and its 7th best offense, they shot just 47.4
    eFG%, which put them 23rd in the league (and 1.3% below league average). So what
    gives? How were they able to score so well last year while shooting poorly? And why
    aren’t they doing the same this season?

    Pulling the Right Levers

    It comes down to what I call the ”levers” that coaches can pull in order to guide their
    teams to victory. Essentially, last season Indiana, at the direction of Frank Vogel, was
    pulling the right levers in the non-shooting areas of offense to make up for missing so
    many shots. And this year, the team is not.

    Last year, as noted, the Pacers ranked 23rd in shooting. But they made up for it by
    being the 7th best at protecting the ball (TOV%), 2nd best at geting to the line (FT/FGA),
    and 5th best at rebounding their own misses (ORB%). Essentially, they were elite at
    everything we measure in terms of team offense other than making shots. And that was
    enough to make them one of the league’s best offenses — and arguably its best when its
    starters were on the floor
    .

    This year, however, they have declined when it comes to shooting — and in terms of
    almost everywhere else. Though just as strong on the offensive glass (currently 5th in the
    NBA), the Pacers have been bad at scoring from the line (21st – affected both by lack of
    opportunities and the fact they’re only shooting 73.7% when they get there) and atrocious
    at taking care of the ball (27th).

    While there are lots of ways to have success, the easiest, most consistent way is to say,
    “Get good shots.” But the Pacers’ offense does not focus on that, the strongest lever. It is
    not designed to consistently “get good shots,” at least by certain measures. Frank Vogel
    has built game plans to get certain shots, but not necessarily what most people today
    consider “good” shots.

    Getting Good Shots

    One way to get a general gauge of the quality of an offense’s shots is to look at their
    distribution by zone. There are five basic zones where players can shoot from: “Restricted
    Area,” “In the Paint (non-Restricted Area),” “Mid-Range,” “Corner 3,” and “Above the Break
    3.”

    The chart above shows the NBA’s average eFG% for each zone since the 2001 season
    (including the first two weeks of 2013). Unsurprisingly, the Restricted Area — which is
    basically everything within 5 feet — has the highest rate of success, at over 59%. From
    there, the next best locations are the Corner 3 and then the Above the Break 3.

    Then comes everything else...CONTINUE READING AT 8p9s



    Bullets Forever:
    Mike Prada: Consistency, confidence is clearly lacking

    The Washington Wizards lack consistency and confidence, and while their problems go
    much deeper, these issues are most fundamental.


    Two buzzwords dominated the Washington Wizards' locker room following yet another
    loss, this time to the Utah Jazz: "confidence," and "consistency."

    They are just buzzwords, of course, used as shorthand to define a problem that takes
    many more words to accurately portray. From the outside looking in, it'd be foolish to
    suggest that the 0-8 Wizards would be cured with a little more confidence and a little
    more consistency. That conveniently ignores important things like "lack of talent" and
    "lack of offensive threats."

    But inside a locker room, those buzzwords are fundamental concepts. If you don't
    believe you can fix a problem, you're never going to figure out what elements actually
    need to be fixed. If you're not always mentally prepared to make the contribution you
    are expected to make, you're never going to actually make that contribution. And so,
    here the Wizards are, a battered team that cannot lose the very reason to keep
    fighting.

    "You got to play relaxed, you got to play confident. We've got to keep at it," Randy
    Wittman said, seemingly out of easy answers.

    For Wittman in particular, the issue of consistency is especially vexing. He can't point
    to a single player that gives him the same contributions every night. Sometimes,
    Kevin Seraphin looks like the league's next dominant post scorer, and sometimes,
    like last night, he looks completely lost. Sometimes, Bradley Beal is making shots;
    sometimes, he's not and nothing else happens. Sometimes, Trevor Ariza is the open-
    court dynamo that Ernie Grunfeld thought he was getting when he traded for him last
    June; sometimes, he's a shot-clanker that stops giving a good enough defensive effort
    and doesn't help a team anywhere. Sometimes, Chris Singleton is aggressive;
    sometimes, he stands back and lets himself get pushed around.

    "In a perfect world, I'd have eight or nine guys and I'd play them every night. They
    know when they're coming in, who's starting, who's coming off the bench," Wittman
    said. "I'm sometimes right now not knowing who's going to play tonight. Who's up,
    who's down. We just don't have the consistency of, really, anybody."

    This, of course, begs several questions. Are the players not taking enough steps to
    be mentally ready to play? Are they letting outside forces dictate their effort? Does
    Wittman need to do more to promote consistency by setting a rotation instead of
    waiting for players to really earn their spots?

    A.J. Price thinks the issue may be the players' ability to accept criticism. The Wizards'
    starting point guard has certainly been around the block in this area, having to deal
    with head coaches that yo-yoed his minutes and threatened his confidence. Last night,
    he took an interesting stand on the mental state of some of his teammates.

    "We've got young guys on the team who kind of get caught up in what's said or how
    the coach says it. You can't do that," he said. "You just have to be confident in yourself
    and what's gotten you here. It's gotten you here for a reason. Just do what you know
    how to do."

    It's impossible to know who Price is talking about, but it's also not especially surprising.
    Young players lose confidence easily, and it's on everyone associated with the team to
    do their best to maintain it. Wittman admitted the same in his press conference,
    emphatically stating...CONTINUE READING AT BULLETS FOREVER



    140 Characters of (Non-PD) Coverage


    Pacers
    Mike Wells @MikeWellsNBA
    Jared Wade @8pts9secs
    Tim Donahue @TimDonahue8p9s
    Tom Lewis @indycornrows


    Wizards
    Michael Lee @MrMichaelLee
    Mike Prada @MikePradaSBN
    Kyle Weidie @Truth_About_It
    WizzNutzz @wzzntzz
    Last edited by avoidingtheclowns; 11-19-2012 at 06:40 PM.
    This is the darkest timeline.

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    future dragon trainer Heisenberg's Avatar
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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Please let this be the game for Roy. Nothing huge, like 20/10 on 8-12 shooting. Please?

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    J7F

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Quote Originally Posted by Heisenberg View Post
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    Please let this be the game for Roy. Nothing huge, like 20/10 on 8-12 shooting. Please?
    I'll take 12 and 9. 20 pts for Roy this year is almost like a 40 pt game
    David "And One" West

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Quote Originally Posted by Heisenberg View Post
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    Please let this be the game for Roy. Nothing huge, like 20/10 on 8-12 shooting. Please?
    Honestly, he tends to really struggle against Okafor.

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Does he struggle against everyone but Troy Murphy?
    I'd rather die standing up than live on my knees.

    -Emiliano Zapata

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    I still can't believe Okafor lost all that weight, I liked him when he was all muscle, I don't think he is as effective now with his new body.

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Washigton 6-1? LOOL

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    yep, definitely taped these interviews during training camp

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Wizards winless so far?Well their time has come.

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    huge crowd you could hear a pin drop in there
    Counting down the days untill DJ Augustin's contract expires.

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    strong 2 minutes from Roy. I'll take it.

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    The Pacers are blowing this people out today they suck bad.

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Damn really impressed with Lance

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    let's go Sammy!

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Great start, we need a win definitely tonight.

    PACERS

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Man the atmosphere at the Verizon Center and terrible and always has been. How this franchise stays in DC, who knows. 99.9% of people in DC/MD/VA don't get a **** about the Wizards.

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Why is PG out the game?

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Quote Originally Posted by Magic P View Post
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    Why is PG out the game?
    2 fouls

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Quote Originally Posted by Magic P View Post
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    Why is PG out the game?
    2 fouls

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Wow this Wizards team sucks, horrible.

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    D-West having a nice defensive game so far.

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Jan Vesely's an underrated bust. He's still real young and all, but man is that dude terrible.

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Sam Young has really turned it around...
    "We've got to be very clear about this. We don't want our players hanging around with murderers," said Larry Bird, Pacers president.

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Quote Originally Posted by idioteque View Post
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    Man the atmosphere at the Verizon Center and terrible and always has been. How this franchise stays in DC, who knows. 99.9% of people in DC/MD/VA don't get a **** about the Wizards.
    If the number of Caps jerseys on WMATA is any indication, the hockey games are much better attended. The Wizards games I attended when I lived there (and worked on G street) were all devoid of any energy however.

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    Default Re: 11/19/2012 Game Thread #12: Pacers Vs. Wizards

    Strip was a shame but nice dish by Lance

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