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Thread: Here's my plea

  1. #176
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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    EDIT: I think Peyton may have us at 4-2, not at 5-1. Luck has us at 3-3 and is 13 years younger than Peyton. So holy crap our rookie is so bad, he has the team at a record that is one whole game worse than I think one of the greatest of all time might have this team at.
    Which is where we would be right now if not for a fluke blown defensive play.....
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  2. #177

    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    I think Manning will be better than Luck for as long as he decides to play the game. John Elway was winning superbowls at the age Manning will be in three to four years and he certainly thinks Peyton can do the same and so do I. I am just not sold on Luck at all. I see a QB who is about a 50% passer with a terrible QB rating. I see three or four better rookie QBs than Luck this year. The one he played today outplayed him and will probably pass him in QB rating. There is always a good QB available. As many number one picks fail miserably as make it. I don't think Luck will fail but I don't see him every being a star who carry a team on his back. He tried every way he could to give this game today to the Browns just like he did the Vikings. I am not impressed. RGIII on the on the other hand, I'm very impressed with him. He can carry a team on his back. He can make everyone around him better and he almost beat the Super Bowl champions today. I see him so far ahead of Luck that Andy Pandy will never make up the difference. RGIII is a superstar right now and only people in Indianapolis deny it...... Seattle's rookie is also better, Tannehill in Miami is better and today, I think that Weeden showed that he is better right now than Andrew Luck.....
    You're posts are so full of bull crap and lies, that it is sickening. I enjoyed your devil's advocate role at first, but now you are just proving how factually incorrect your assumptions are. Check out that "terrible QB rating" for Luck you speak of. He is 6th overall for this season so far. And not one rookie above him, let alone 3 or 4.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

    And he was 9th this week with a bad game for him, 2 spots higher than Weeden.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/type/player-week/week/7

    So yea the "27th best QB" in the league according to you is rated 6th overall to this point in total QB rating. So "terrible." Only the Manning brothers, Brady, Ryan, and Roethlisberger are above him. Such bad company to be in for a rookie huh?

    Just stop. You look like a complete fool now. LMFAO.
    Last edited by Midcoasted; 10-22-2012 at 12:47 AM.

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  4. #178
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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by Midcoasted View Post
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    You're posts are so full of bull crap and lies, that it is sickening. I enjoyed your devil's advocate role at first, but now you are just proving how factually incorrect your assumptions are. Check out that "terrible QB rating" for Luck you speak of. He is 6th overall for this season so far. And not one rookie above him, let alone 3 or 4.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

    And he was 9th this week with a bad game for him, 2 spots higher than Weeden.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/type/player-week/week/7

    So yea the "27th best QB" in the league according to you is rated 6th overall to this point in total QB rating. So "terrible." Only the Manning brothers, Brady, Ryan, and Roethlisberger are above him. Such bad company to be in for a rookie huh?

    Just stop. You look like a complete fool now. LMFAO.
    I am not the fool. The "official" QB rating shows that Luck is 30th. Weeden will pass him this week so he will be 31st. That rating you give just pays off for total yards and doesn't take into consideration completion percentage and sacks. It is NOT the stat that everyone talks about when evaluating QBs. But, it is certainly a good way to inflate the value if a very mediocre QB. Luck is the fifth rated QB in his rookie class. Not quite the most NFL ready QB ever is he?

  5. #179
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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I'm talking about this year.
    I know. You said he couldn't make this garbage team look good this year. I was pointing out that the a contending team with Peyton is garbage without Peyton, meaning Peyton makes a garbage team good, which is what you're saying he can't do.

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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    I am not the fool. The "official" QB rating shows that Luck is 30th. Weeden will pass him this week so he will be 31st. That rating you give just pays off for total yards and doesn't take into consideration completion percentage and sacks. It is NOT the stat that everyone talks about when evaluating QBs. But, it is certainly a good way to inflate the value if a very mediocre QB. Luck is the fifth rated QB in his rookie class. Not quite the most NFL ready QB ever is he?
    Dude, you're just completely wrong. Total QBR punishes more for sacks than regular QBR. Do you ever research anything before you spout off?

    According to ESPN, QBR was developed to measure the degree to which a quarterback contributed to scoring points for the team, and also to a win by the team. For example, completing a pass to earn a first down at the quarterback's own 20-yard-line with 30 seconds left in the game is unlikely to lead to any points for his team, but if they are already leading it increases the probability of winning, as it usually enables the leading team to run out the clock. This second criterion is quantified using a "win probability" function which ESPN developed by analyzing data for each play of NFL games over the previous decade.
    The computation requires an examination of each play in which the quarterback was involved. For each play, the change in the expected value of the points scored by the two teams is determined along with the maximum possible change in points for each team. The net points gained by the offense on the play are divided between the players involved in the play based on how much each contributed to the points gained or lost. For example, on a play where the quarterback immediately hands the ball off to a running back after the snap, the quarterback's contribution is negligible. On passing plays the quarterback is likely to have a major contribution, along with the blockers and the receiver. The resulting value is compared the maximum possible net point gain, and this comparison leads to a "net points percentage" value between 0 and 100 for the quarterback on each play which roughly represents the percentage of the possible point gain that the quarterback produced. This value is transformed so that a value of 50 represents the average net point gain of an NFL quarterback on the play.
    The win probability function is then used to compute a "clutch index" for each play ranging from 0.3 to 3.0, with higher values corresponding to plays that have a greater influence on winning or losing the game. The QBR is obtained by taking the weighted average of the "points gained percentage" for each play, with each play having a weight equal to its clutch index. Thus the QBR has a range from 0 to 100 with 50 being considered average.[1]
    [edit]Comparison to NFL Passer Rating

    The calculation of the NFL passer rating is much simpler than the QBR, as it depends only on aggregate statistics rather than an analysis of each play a quarterback is involved in. Passer rating is calculated using each quarterback's completion percentage, passing yardage,touchdowns and interceptions, and has a maximum value of 158.3 and minimum value 0, with 80 being considered average.


    So the stat you are using to pump up RGIII is the one that rewards passing yards and doesn't punish that much for sacks.

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  7. #181

    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Since a certain poster is so wrong so often I hate to even point this out, but I think the argument with respect to quarterback rating boils down to whether you are looking at the official "passer rating" stats linked here:

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/pl...rterbackRating

    or at the ESPN QBR scores linked two posts above. For whatever reasons the two rating systems give vastly different numbers.

    Each system has its limitations: QBR gives a QB credit for making plays with his feet, which makes some sense, but then it docks him for receivers gaining yards after the catch, apparently assuming that the QB has nothing to do with such yards being possible because of an accurate/well-timed throw.
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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    If you wanted to attack Total QBR, and actually understood what you are talking about (this is directed at Blu btw), you'd realize that the big knock on it right now is that it is too complicated and no one really understands it other than it tries to account for each QB's play within the flow of the game. Regular passer rating however does not do that. So an 80 yard pass for a TD where the QB throws it about 5 yards and then the receivers does the rest gives a huge boost to regular passer rating where as it would not mean as much to total QBR. Regular passer rating is the one that rewards raw yards without taking anything else into account.

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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
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    Since a certain poster is so wrong so often I hate to even point this out, but I think the argument with respect to quarterback rating boils down to whether you are looking at the official "passer rating" stats linked here:

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/pl...rterbackRating

    or at the ESPN QBR scores linked two posts above. For whatever reasons the two rating systems give vastly different numbers.

    Each system has its limitations: QBR gives a QB credit for making plays with his feet, which makes some sense, but then it docks him for receivers gaining yards after the catch, apparently assuming that the QB has nothing to do with such yards being possible because of an accurate/well-timed throw.
    Understood, but Blu is arguing that Luck is rated well in total QBR because of yards and the fact that it doesn't punish for sacks, which is just 100% incorrect.

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  11. #184

    Default Re: Here's my plea

    gotcha

    to be honest I rarely read his posts even when they're quoted, since by reading them I don't expect to be enlightened in any way.

    We all have the crazy uncle or cousin that you just want to avoid at Thanksgiving. We have a forum crazy uncle.
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  13. #185

    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    I am not the fool. The "official" QB rating shows that Luck is 30th. Weeden will pass him this week so he will be 31st. That rating you give just pays off for total yards and doesn't take into consideration completion percentage and sacks. It is NOT the stat that everyone talks about when evaluating QBs. But, it is certainly a good way to inflate the value if a very mediocre QB. Luck is the fifth rated QB in his rookie class. Not quite the most NFL ready QB ever is he?
    Oh you mean "passer rating," which is an even less effective tool to show how a QB performs than ESPN's QB rating. The QB rating was devised by professionals to gauge how good a Quarterback really is. A great team can make an average QB have a great passer rating, but not so much for QB rating.

    You said QB rating, not passer rating. Two completely different things. So you really think that Luck doesn't deserve any credit for those two rushing touchdowns yesterday? If you believe that the passer rating is tell all, then obviously you don't.

    I've researched this a lot. The game to game ratings are not as telling as the season ratings. The season ratings are always spot on, and have been since the formula's inception in 2008. Football experts who analyze these things for a living developed this rating to determine how good a QB really is without their team padding their stats. While neither formula is perfect, from my extended research on the subject, ESPN's formula is more accurate because actual football experts developed it to do just that. Luck is middle of pack in passing efficiency, but the least penalized, and the best scrambling QB in the NFL this year so far. Not at designed QB runs, but at scrambles, which hold more weight in the formula.

    So do your research Ol Blu and get schooled by real experts. Luck is not the 31st best QB like you would like to believe. He is among the leaders, if not the leader, in pass completions over 20 yards. Meaning the ball was in the air for 20 yards. RGIII does not even come close to him in completions over 20 yards. Sure his dudes might take a 10 yard pass and take it the distance, but RGIII is not very good at all while actually throwing it over 20 yards in the air.

    Understand the formula and what it really tells us before you start spitting lies again. "Doesn't account for completion percentage or sacks." LMFAO you are really a clueless nitwit. RESEARCH IT!

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/68...terback-rating

    At least do your research before spitting out lies again. Like the other posters have said, it does account for sacks, and how a QB performs under pressure, so do your research then talk. Doesn't account for completion percentage? Ummm yes it does, it just does not weigh it as heavily as the passer rating does. Which makes sense because 5 yard routes are not as hard to throw as 25 yard routes. So again another lie by Ol Blu. You just keep digging your hole deeper huh buddy?

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  15. #186
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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    The best part is that he says it doesn't penalize QBs for sacks. QBs take a huge hit for sacks under QBR, but they are also awarded when they escape a collapsing pocket.

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  16. #187
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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Stats are only stats without context. That's what all the RG3 supporters use. Stats. No context. No reason or even an attempt to understand the offensive systems and other factors that determine *why* the stats are the way they are. They don't want to recognize taht RG3's system is simpler, that he makes shorter throws, that the skins have a productive running game which makes it way easier for RG3 to get passes off downfield, that he has to make less reads, that he's faced way less talented defensive opposition in the passing game than Luck, that because he throws shorter throws designed to get receivers a lot of YAC, it boosts his stats, while reducing tremendously his chances for interceptions, which is why he has so few interceptions.

    Yep, RG3 has less interceptions and a higher completion percentage. There's a reason for that. Imagine what Luck could do if he had the NFL's #1 running attack with which to work with. Imagine if Luck had faced Bottom 15 pass defenses in 6 of his 7 games. Imagine if Luck was only asked to make short passes with a lot of yards after the catch.

    The few times RG3 has to make a difficult throw during a game, he's aided by the fact that pass defenders have sagged off their man so much in an attempt to help in run support. Lanes are wide open. One read, maybe two, hit a guy with little pressure, let the guy get a ton of YAC and maybe even a touchdown, and then lay down on your back and hold your arms up to the sky --- otherwise known as Griffining.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
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    Stats are only stats without context. That's what all the RG3 supporters use. Stats. No context. No reason or even an attempt to understand the offensive systems and other factors that determine *why* the stats are the way they are. They don't want to recognize taht RG3's system is simpler, that he makes shorter throws, that the skins have a productive running game which makes it way easier for RG3 to get passes off downfield, that he has to make less reads, that he's faced way less talented defensive opposition in the passing game than Luck, that because he throws shorter throws designed to get receivers a lot of YAC, it boosts his stats, while reducing tremendously his chances for interceptions, which is why he has so few interceptions.

    Yep, RG3 has less interceptions and a higher completion percentage. There's a reason for that. Imagine what Luck could do if he had the NFL's #1 running attack with which to work with. Imagine if Luck had faced Bottom 15 pass defenses in 6 of his 7 games. Imagine if Luck was only asked to make short passes with a lot of yards after the catch.

    The few times RG3 has to make a difficult throw during a game, he's aided by the fact that pass defenders have sagged off their man so much in an attempt to help in run support. Lanes are wide open. One read, maybe two, hit a guy with little pressure, let the guy get a ton of YAC and maybe even a touchdown, and then lay down on your back and hold your arms up to the sky.
    Well, then he should do what the Redskins did to have that running game. They gave the ball to RGIII and let him run. Let's see Luck do that if no running game is the problem. Put Luck on the Redskins and they won't be as good as they are. Put RGIII on the Colts and they will be much improved immediately. RGIII makes the players around him better. Luck doesn't do that....

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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    How is RGIII making Alfred Morris better?

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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Understood, but Blu is arguing that Luck is rated well in total QBR because of yards and the fact that it doesn't punish for sacks, which is just 100% incorrect.
    I don't think I said anything about sacks, Joe. I said that system pays off for volume passing and a bad completion percentage means nothing there. That is what I believe because it is a big move to come from near last in QB rating to almost leading in that system. I have watched him play and he is nothing special. No special arm, he is just running for his life and throwing at every opportunity..... It will catch up with him soon.....

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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    How is RGIII making Alfred Morris better?
    Everyone on that team is better with the threats that RGIII brings to the table....

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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    I don't think I said anything about sacks, Joe. I said that system pays off for volume passing and a bad completion percentage means nothing there. That is what I believe because it is a big move to come from near last in QB rating to almost leading in that system. I have watched him play and he is nothing special. No special arm, he is just running for his life and throwing at every opportunity..... It will catch up with him soon.....
    Oh really? Perhaps you should try to remember what you said just a few posts above on this same page.

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    I am not the fool. The "official" QB rating shows that Luck is 30th. Weeden will pass him this week so he will be 31st. That rating you give just pays off for total yards and doesn't take into consideration completion percentage and sacks. It is NOT the stat that everyone talks about when evaluating QBs. But, it is certainly a good way to inflate the value if a very mediocre QB. Luck is the fifth rated QB in his rookie class. Not quite the most NFL ready QB ever is he?

    And for your information Total QBR does look at completion percentage, but it digs a little deeper than just the raw number you see at face value. It looks at how far the ball traveled in the air, it also accounts for drops (What up TY Hiltion?). Educate yourself on the stat a little bit and you might find it makes some really solid tweeks to the passer rating system.

    Here's the thing Olblu, we get you don't like Luck and that you like Peyton, and I've accepted that. What does tick me off is when you spout off blatantly wrong things to try and support yourself. It is clear you know pretty much zero about the total QBR stat so how about you just admit that and we move on? I really don't care if you don't like Luck, that's fine and there are certainly criticisms to his season so far (as there could be for every rookie QB), but what I don't like is when you act like you are some kind of expert on a stat and say "It doesn't take into consideration completion percentage and sacks." When that is just flat out wrong. That is just annoying and adds nothing to the conversation. You want to argue that Luck isn't any good, fine be my guest, but at least understand the things you are talking about.
    Last edited by Trader Joe; 10-22-2012 at 04:32 PM.

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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    Well, then he should do what the Redskins did to have that running game. They gave the ball to RGIII and let him run. Let's see Luck do that if no running game is the problem. Put Luck on the Redskins and they won't be as good as they are. Put RGIII on the Colts and they will be much improved immediately. RGIII makes the players around him better. Luck doesn't do that....
    Opposite. How on earth does RG3 get 3 wins with the team the Colts have in place?
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
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    Opposite. How on earth does RG3 get 3 wins with the team the Colts have in place?
    Well, by now Luck would no longer be the starter in Washington with those stats. Rex Grossman would be the starter while Luck watched.....

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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Oh really? Perhaps you should try to remember what you said just a few posts above on this same page.




    And for your information Total QBR does look at completion percentage, but it digs a little deeper than just the raw number you see at face value. It looks at how far the ball traveled in the air, it also accounts for drops (What up TY Hiltion?). Educate yourself on the stat a little bit and you might find it makes some really solid tweeks to the passer rating system.

    Here's the thing Olblu, we get you don't like Luck and that you like Peyton, and I've accepted that. What does tick me off is when you spout off blatantly wrong things to try and support yourself. It is clear you know pretty much zero about the total QBR stat so how about you just admit that and we move on? I really don't care if you don't like Luck, that's fine and there are certainly criticisms to his season so far (as there could be for every rookie QB), but what I don't like is when you act like you are some kind of expert on a stat and say "It doesn't take into consideration completion percentage and sacks." When that is just flat out wrong. That is just annoying and adds nothing to the conversation. You want to argue that Luck isn't any good, fine be my guest, but at least understand the things you are talking about.
    Thank you, I didn't know that it did and I forgot that I said that. I know that I made an example that a QB who chucked it 70 times per game at 45% would probably rate well in that system. I'll take the system that has been the standard since the days of Joe Montana.....

  25. #196

    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Come on OlBlu, I like you so be a man and don't just ignore this:

    "Both Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III have been excellent this year, but only Griffin looks great when examining traditional metrics. The above analysis isn’t intended to denigrate Griffin; if anything, it should raise questions about why the coaches in Indianapolis are making things so difficult for Luck. He has being asked to throw more deep passes and has made fewer checkdowns than just about any quarterback in the league, despite an extremely inexperienced set of targets after Reggie Wayne. He has also being asked to throw the ball frequently — he ranks third in pass attempts per game, the cost of doing business when paired with a below-average defense and an anemic running game. As a result, his completion percentage and yards per attempt averages are underwhelming, but it’s tough to say how well Griffin would do if the players switched teams. Griffin may have the highlight reel runs and the showy statistics, but Luck has arguably been even more impressive under considerably more challenging circumstances."

    From the NY Times, the "National Media" you love so much. We're not saying Luck has been outplaying RG3 or anything, we're just saying conventional metrics aren't giving you the full picture.

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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by Pace Maker View Post
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    Come on OlBlu, I like you so be a man and don't just ignore this:

    "Both Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III have been excellent this year, but only Griffin looks great when examining traditional metrics. The above analysis isn’t intended to denigrate Griffin; if anything, it should raise questions about why the coaches in Indianapolis are making things so difficult for Luck. He has being asked to throw more deep passes and has made fewer checkdowns than just about any quarterback in the league, despite an extremely inexperienced set of targets after Reggie Wayne. He has also being asked to throw the ball frequently — he ranks third in pass attempts per game, the cost of doing business when paired with a below-average defense and an anemic running game. As a result, his completion percentage and yards per attempt averages are underwhelming, but it’s tough to say how well Griffin would do if the players switched teams. Griffin may have the highlight reel runs and the showy statistics, but Luck has arguably been even more impressive under considerably more challenging circumstances."

    From the NY Times, the "National Media" you love so much. We're not saying Luck has been outplaying RG3 or anything, we're just saying conventional metrics aren't giving you the full picture.
    Then the coaching staff needs to be replaced at the end of the season......

  28. #198
    Danny Granger PowerRanger DGPR's Avatar
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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    Then the coaching staff needs to be replaced at the end of the season......
    It's honorable that you are willing to go down with your ship captain blu.
    "I've got an idea--an idea so smart that my head would explode if I even began to know what I'm talking about." - Peter Griffin

  29. #199
    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Blu is full of more excuses than anyone i've ever seen.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

  30. #200
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    Default Re: Here's my plea

    Quote Originally Posted by DGPR View Post
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    It's honorable that you are willing to go down with your ship captain blu.
    I was only kidding. I just thought that blaming Luck's bad stats on the coaching staff was a stretch but he leads the NFL in excuse makers....

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