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Thread: Keeping David West

  1. #126
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    But this is where you have to look at more than just raw numbers to understand WHY.

    We have a guy with a good per-36 number. OK, that isn't unusual, a scrub playing 5 minutes of garbage time can have a great per-36.

    In this case, though, you have two things that make West's per-36 worth considering. First is that he's a starter. He's not playing garbage time nor is he matched up against scrubs. Second is that when he has games where he place close to 36 minutes his scoring actually approaches the per-36 number. That is pretty important because it means the per-36 isn't somehow due to a burst of production in short minutes.

    So, you point out, his OVERALL average was MUCH lower than his per-36, and a guy with similar numbers is considered to be a much better player.

    This is where you have to start looking around to explain WHY that is instead of just saying that somehow the statistics are wrong. Is it that West commonly played far fewer minutes and therefore didn't have the opportunity to hit the scoring he could hit when playing over 30 minutes? If so, WHY was he playing fewer minutes? Were his shooting percentages bad in the games he played fewer minutes (in other words, he is inconsistent offensively)? Is it that he was pulled for defensive reasons (which I know you would focus on)?

    Fitting a team together isn't about picking a statistic and finding everyone who is best at that statistic - all single statistics are flawed because they only show part of the picture. It is about figuring out WHY guys have certain statistics and whether another player can help overcome the weaknesses that are shown in this player's statistics while allowing him to use his strengths.
    You are making some good points but there is a reason why I go with the raw numbers of 12.8ppg and 6.6rpg, there are too many variables, by looking at West's games last year he played more than 36 minutes only 5 times, are people really expecting him to play 36+ minutes a game this year when he was only able to play 36+ minutes 5 times? the odds are against it.

    There is also the age issue, I don't think he is going to be able to play that many minutes anymore, his defense is also going to affect his ability to stay on the floor, I expect West to put good numbers in the beginning of the year by the way and I know I'm going to get crap for it but at the end of the year I expect him to stay right were he was last year, not bad but not top 10 or top 15 as many think here.

  2. #127
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    You are making some good points but there is a reason why I go with the raw numbers of 12.8ppg and 6.6rpg, there are too many variables, by looking at West's games last year he played more than 36 minutes only 5 times, are people really expecting him to play 36+ minutes a game this year when he was only able to play 36+ minutes 5 times? the odds are against it.
    That is not the argument and you know it. It is clear that you think he is a below average scorer. They used 36per stats to show that is not the case. You rightfully said that 36per can be skewed. And BillS pointed out that sometimes it is. But in West's situation it isn't. You said he makes good points.

    And then you said that we can't expect him to play 36 mpg. Come on dude. The point was that West is a good enough scorer, a below average overall defender, and average rebounder who plays 30 to 33 mpg and can healthily put up 14 to 16 ppg with 46 to 52 % from the field.

    You aren't getting crap from me and others. There may be a few out there but don't lump all of us with them. You clearly don't like West, we understand. You have every right to not like him. But to say that he is below average as a scorer is flat wrong.

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  4. #128
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    FWIW, I say after the season we look for a PF that has the tools and personality to get us over the hump. And he is not available, or that man is West so be it. I do not want to sign anyone, any more because he is "our" guy. It is blind loyalty in a business that burns you for it. The goal is to win, not to be loyal to everyone who has benefited us.......*cough Artest *cough Croshere

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  6. #129
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    You are making some good points but there is a reason why I go with the raw numbers of 12.8ppg and 6.6rpg, there are too many variables, by looking at West's games last year he played more than 36 minutes only 5 times, are people really expecting him to play 36+ minutes a game this year when he was only able to play 36+ minutes 5 times? the odds are against it.

    There is also the age issue, I don't think he is going to be able to play that many minutes anymore, his defense is also going to affect his ability to stay on the floor, I expect West to put good numbers in the beginning of the year by the way and I know I'm going to get crap for it but at the end of the year I expect him to stay right were he was last year, not bad but not top 10 or top 15 as many think here.
    Noone on the Pacers played more than 30 mpg last season except for Granger that is currently on the roster. Obviously some of the players are capable of doing so, but we chose to limit minutes last year, West played a ton of minutes in the playoffs, and has throughout his career. Roy Hibbert played the second most minutes per game of any current Pacer last season, think about that. It seems unfair to just look at the raw totals and not take that into consideration. By that metric none of our players are very good, which obviously isn't true, they had the 5th best record in the NBA.

  7. #130
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Also in fairness to West, even though I don't like his defense & his rebounding could be better, he did play quite a bit of his time on the floor last year as a 5. Remember whenever he & Tyler were on together it was West picking up & being guarded by the other teams Center.


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  8. #131

    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Everybody needs to remember that Vnzla81 thinks CP3 could get Hans David West type numbers and that Carl Landry would have been a better signing than David West last year.

    In fairness that was in 2011 when David West recovery was in question but why all the hate now I have no clue.
    Last edited by Gamble1; 10-10-2012 at 04:46 PM.

  9. #132
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Major Cold;1508308]That is not the argument and you know it. It is clear that you think he is a below average scorer. They used 36per stats to show that is not the case. You rightfully said that 36per can be skewed. And BillS pointed out that sometimes it is. But in West's situation it isn't. You said he makes good points.
    I don't think he is an average scorer go back and read my reply's, I expect him to average a bit more than he did last year(maybe 13/14ppg), but not 20/21 as some has suggested, my issues is that many here love to talk about his offense while ignoring the other parts of his game, I brought up the NaphtownSeth's example in how he tell us how great West is while ignoring his D but when he talks about Tyler he craps all over the guy and also talks about Tyler's DEFENSE, people in this blog overate the crap out of the guy call him the "Pacers MPV" and the "most important player on the team" while also overrating the crap out of his leadership ability.

    And then you said that we can't expect him to play 36 mpg. Come on dude. The point was that West is a good enough scorer, a below average overall defender, and average rebounder who plays 30 to 33 mpg and can healthily put up 14 to 16 ppg with 46 to 52 % from the field.
    West is a good scorer, a pretty bad defender and a decent rebounder.

    You aren't getting crap from me and others. There may be a few out there but don't lump all of us with them. You clearly don't like West, we understand. You have every right to not like him. But to say that he is below average as a scorer is flat wrong.
    Like I said before is not that I don't like West, the part that grind my gears is the constant overrating of him in this blog, yes overrate him a bit I understand, but overrating him to the point that you think they are talking about Lebron, Howard or some superstar? No.

    Edit: And also my other issue is that I hope the Pacers aim higher next year and don't sign West for the next 3 or 4 years to be the STARTER, if they were to sign him for 3mil a year to be the backup power forward I'm fine with that, but for him to be the starter for the next 2/3/4 years? No, if the Pacers want to compete for a championship they need to do better than West in my opinion.
    Last edited by vnzla81; 10-10-2012 at 04:52 PM.

  10. #133

    Default Re: Keeping David West

    This is interesting. IIRC, Granger was an excellent post up player in college and for at least part of his first year with the Pacers. The Ps needed his ability to play the 2 and 3 defensively more than the post play. Danny may have been a little adverse to the banging after his knee injury. All that to say, if we can't keep DWest for whatever reason, or if Paul George should be a more natural SF, then Danny as our PF would not e a bad option. He can guard most of the 4s in the league and get his shot while being checked over almost all of them. The stretch option with Danny could cause less crowding in the paint if that would help Roy's offense. Just another option if we can't or don't want to keep West and none of the pieces available can replace him.

  11. #134
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I don't think he is an average scorer go back and read my reply's, I expect him to average a bit more than he did last year(maybe 13/14ppg), but not 20/21 as some has suggested, my issues is that many here love to talk about his offense while ignoring the other parts of his game, I brought up the NaphtownSeth's example in how he tell us how great West is while ignoring his D but when he talks about Tyler he craps all over the guy and also talks about Tyler's DEFENSE, people in this blog overate the crap out of the guy call him the "Pacers MPV" and the "most important player on the team" while also overrating the crap out of his leadership ability.



    West is a good scorer, a pretty bad defender and a decent rebounder.



    Like I said before is not that I don't like West, the part that grind my gears is the constant overrating of him in this blog, yes overrate him a bit I understand, but overrating him to the point that you think they are talking about Lebron, Howard or some superstar? No.
    Who predicted that he would score 20/21? I think you misunderstood, some people brought up the fact that he was recently scoring that much in support of the argument that he'll likely score more than he did last season next year due to health. Noone has even predicted an All-Star appearance for West next season, let alone compared him currently, or in his prime to Lebron or Howard, misrepresenting the arguments of the other side by using gross exaggerations is no way to discuss anything...

    I would argue his leadership has been huge, you need to do no more than listen to his teammates talk about how big it has been to understand where that idea comes from. You are the one that said straight up, that West is in the bottom part of starting PF's offensively due to raw ppg. Who has argued that he's a great defender? You keep changing your argument friend. It's valid to do what Seth did because Tyler is horrible on offense and on defense. West is maybe a bit below average defensively, good offensively (worlds better than Tyler on that end) and brings his fundamentals and intangibles. Tyler is an even worse defender than West, neither are quick enough laterally to be very good there, but at least West understands team defensive concepts and doesn't hurt everyone else, Tyler on the other hand is constantly out of position and fouls way more.

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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by Cousy47 View Post
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    This is interesting. IIRC, Granger was an excellent post up player in college and for at least part of his first year with the Pacers. The Ps needed his ability to play the 2 and 3 defensively more than the post play. Danny may have been a little adverse to the banging after his knee injury. All that to say, if we can't keep DWest for whatever reason, or if Paul George should be a more natural SF, then Danny as our PF would not e a bad option. He can guard most of the 4s in the league and get his shot while being checked over almost all of them. The stretch option with Danny could cause less crowding in the paint if that would help Roy's offense. Just another option if we can't or don't want to keep West and none of the pieces available can replace him.
    i don't love the idea of Granger as a full time 4. we don't really become fast with that lineup, we just get vulnerable vs. big teams. Now at least we are as big/strong/tough as anyone.

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  15. #136

    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Edit: And also my other issue is that I hope the Pacers aim higher next year and don't sign West for the next 3 or 4 years to be the STARTER, if they were to sign him for 3mil a year to be the backup power forward I'm fine with that, but for him to be the starter for the next 2/3/4 years? No, if the Pacers want to compete for a championship they need to do better than West in my opinion.
    The two bolded comments I can agree with but there is no PF that will be on the market that makes the Pacers compete for a championship in 2013. Josh Smith is the closest and I doubt the Pacers have the cash to pay for him. Milsap has my vote for the right price (he had it last year when the Pacers signed West for 2 years ending the same time West contract ended) but thats a slight upgrade that I wouldn't call a championship move.

    The real problem is that the PF positon is not the issue. The Pacers still need a star that can take over the game and most Pacer fans know they won't get one via FA because they hope Paul George is that guy. Like it or not thats where we are at.
    Last edited by Gamble1; 10-10-2012 at 05:08 PM.

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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    daschysta;1508319]Who predicted that he would score 20/21? I think you misunderstood, some people brought up the fact that he was recently scoring that much in support of the argument that he'll likely score more than he did last season next year due to health. Noone has even predicted an All-Star appearance for West next season, let alone compared him currently, or in his prime to Lebron or Howard, misrepresenting the arguments of the other side by using gross exaggerations is no way to discuss anything...
    Exaggerations are the ones that people use to tell us how much the Pacers need West and yes I have seen people still predicting what you predicted last year, that West is going to average 20 and 10.

    I would argue his leadership has been huge, you need to do no more than listen to his teammates talk about how big it has been to understand where that idea comes from. You are the one that said straight up, that West is in the bottom part of starting PF's offensively due to raw ppg. Who has argued that he's a great defender? You keep changing your argument friend. It's valid to do what Seth did because Tyler is horrible on offense and on defense. West is maybe a bit below average defensively, good offensively (worlds better than Tyler on that end) and brings his fundamentals and intangibles. Tyler is an even worse defender than West, neither are quick enough laterally to be very good there, but at least West understands team defensive concepts and doesn't hurt everyone else, Tyler on the other hand is constantly out of position and fouls way more.
    Yes his leadership is great but is overrated the same way people overrated the crap out of DJ's leadership and nope I'm not changing my argument, I used PPG's RPG's and his DEFENSE to compare him to other power forwards and he is on the bottom.

    edit: I also forgot to mention that Tyler is a better defender than West, Tyler is better at moving his feet and staying in front of people so if Seth is going to crap on Tyler for his bad D(according to him) he needs to also crap on West.
    Last edited by vnzla81; 10-10-2012 at 05:29 PM.

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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    We have early Bird rights we can resign him to pretty much whatever he likes we can sign him 175% of his previous salary(10 million). If we want him back and he wants to be back there wont be an issue. That is why I loved his deal at the time I just wish we would of done the same with DJ and gave him a 2 year deal so we had some type of bird rights he will likely be a rental but West will be back IMO depending on how the season goes.

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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by Gamble1 View Post
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    The two bolded comments I can agree with but there is no PF that will be on the market that makes the Pacers compete for a championship in 2013. Josh Smith is the closest and I doubt the Pacers have the cash to pay for him. Milsap has my vote for the right price (he had it last year when the Pacers signed West for 2 years ending the same time West contract ended) but thats a slight upgrade that I wouldn't call a championship move.

    The real problem is that the PF positon is not the issue. The Pacers still need a star that can take over the game and most Pacer fans know they won't get one via FA because they hope Paul George is that guy. Like it or not thats where we are at.
    Not sure we have to neccesarily have a "take over" star meaning someone who is going to be scoring just garrish numbers. We do need Paul to take a big step forward consistent with his potential and for Roy to take one more step forward similar to the one he took last season. If Paul turns into a guy who can put up 18-20 points a night (doesn't have to actually do it, since the team is so balanced, but he needs to be capable of it) and Roy gets to where he can play 32-33 mpg instead of 29-30 and can post 15-16 ppg 10-11 rpg, and they do it while West and Danny are still playing at a high level then we'll be in good shape to play against any team in the league.

    I think that George Hill has some potential as a "closing" type player too, he can slash and put the ball on the floor better than any of our other starters. Granger actually consistently posts some of the highest 4th quarter numbers in the league too, and West isn't bad at closing either, since he can put the ball on the floor better than most power forwards and is so reliable with the mid ranged J.

    We just need to have an offense that knows where it wants to go, and knows what to do if that first option is cut off. That is our "closing problem" so much as it actually exists. Too often I got the feeling that we would be dead set on doing one thing, but if the other team anticipated it and cut off the option we just went into a broken offense. It happened at the end of lots of games, and it definitely happened against Miami quite a bit, remember, games 1 and 4 were really close even in the closing minutes, I think we were within 2 with 5 minutes in game 1 and within 5 with 2 minutes in game 4. However, at the end of games Miami would either double team Hibbert or West or aggressively front, and we didn't know what to do in response. Hopefully Frank has been thinking about it long and hard all offseason long and has drawn up some plays that are more varied, and contain contingencies in case the first option is cut off, and he does a better job explaining the contingencies to the players. The offense needs more nuance, especially late in games and doubly so late in games in the playoffs.

    If we do that we don't have to have one huge offensive star, 5 players capable of 15+ every night would be more than enough. Hopefully Granger plays like he did post ASB all year long next year, because that Granger could potentially be a great closer for us himself, even last season Granger was extremely clutch, and scored the 6th most pp48 minutes of "crunch time" averaging 38.4 (crunch time defined as portions of 4th quarters or overtimes with less than 5 minutes to go, with neither team up by more than 5 points) better than every one else in the NBA other than Kyrie Irving, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul and Russel Westbrook, not bad company to be in if you're looking for a clutch scorer. Additionally he shot .475/.400/.920. Compare that to his per 48 minute per game numbers for the year, which were 27 ppg on .416/.381/.873, meaning that he not just marginally, but substantially upped his production late in close games when we needed him most, scoring 11.4 more ppg than his average per48 ppg total, shot 47.5 % vs. 41.6% from the field, 40% vs. 38.1% from 3 and 92% vs. 87.3% from the line.

    Now Granger didn't come through vs. Miami, but i'm interested in when he got hurt, because to me, it seemed like after that Philly game just before the season ended, where he had to get leave after tweaking something he was never the same, which stuck out, since up until that point post ASB he had been playing arguably the best ball of his career and was looking like a real first option. I wonder, because he played very well vs. Chicago the year before in the playoffs, and they were an even better defensive team than last year's Miami Heat. If he was hurt during the series I guess I can't blame him much, but some of the games were close enough that it could have made a difference. I really hope that the injection of platelet rich plasma in his knee puts some spring in his step, because last year, just like all seasons since his breakout year, Danny's performance correlated with the Pacers winning or losing more than any other single player except perhaps Hibbert.

    In Pacer Wins

    20.5 ppg
    5.1 rpg
    2 apg
    .8 bpg
    1 spg

    33.1 mpg

    .436/.439/.880

    In Pacer Losses

    15.2 ppg
    4.6 rpg
    1.4 apg
    .4 bpg
    .9 spg

    33.5 mpg

    .372/.270/.854

    Danny is still our bellwether, when he plays well it tends to result in wins, when he doesn't the Pacers lose the vast majority of the time, the sharp difference between each scenario suggests great variance in the dispersal of outcomes, in other words a strong positive correlation between Danny's statistical output and the team winning or losing.

    Our fate lies with Granger being more consistent offensively as much as anything else. Results suggest he can be a very nice closer if the team can run their offense late effectively and keep it close enough for Granger to pull us through in the clutch.

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  20. #140
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Exaggerations are the ones that people use to tell us how much the Pacers need West and yes I have seen people still predicting what you predicted last year, that West is going to average 20 and 10.



    Yes his leadership is great but is overrated the same way people overrated the crap out of DJ's leadership and nope I'm not changing my argument, I used PPG's RPG's and his DEFENSE to compare him to other power forwards and he is on the bottom.

    edit: I also forgot to mention that Tyler is a better defender than West, Tyler is better at moving his feet and staying in front of people so if Seth is going to crap on Tyler for his bad D(according to him) he needs to also crap on West.


    Find a single post that actually predicted that West would be 20-10 ON THIS TEAM last season coming off of an ACL injury as severe as the one he was coming off of. I doubt you find more than maybe one radical outlyer. Most were arguing that West has proven to be capable of big numbers, but realized, given the make up of this team, he was unlikely to post them, and that isn't even taking the ACL injury into consideration.

    Now, and notice the disclaimer IF reports are accurate that physically, he is back to 100 percent of where he was before he got injured, then there is no reason to believe that he wouldn't be capable of numbers roughly on par with what he was putting up in NO at the age of 29 or 30 just because he's 32 now. West never really relied on athleticism at all, and his skills don't seem to have declined so I don't see why on some other team he wouldn't be able to put up 17-19 ppg 7-8 rpg in his traditional minutes.

    I mean, even in April of last season, as he was finally starting to feel like his old self according to him, he put up 15.2 ppg 6.1 rpg 1.9 apg .7 bpg .9 spg in 28.9 mpg on 54.2 percent from the field, translate those numbers to per36, which he's proven he can play multiple times in his career and he was putting up
    18.9 ppg 7.6 rpg 2.4 apg and around a block and a steal Which LO AND BEHOLD, are almost exactly what he was putting up in New Orleans with comparable minutes.

    If you want a bigger sample size take post ASB as a whole, which includes games from before he admitted to finally feeling back to himself, but whatever.

    Over the final 33 games per 36 he averaged

    16.36 ppg
    7.93 rpg
    2.6 apg
    and around 1 block and 1 steal

    51 percent from the field


    I don't see why the argument that on a team that leaned on him more, if reports are true that he's physically back to as good or better than where he was his final season in NO, he could put up comparable numbers to then. It isn't like his skills have declined, or he's lost much athleticism since then, which his game never relied on anyhow.

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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by pacer4ever View Post
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    We have early Bird rights we can resign him to pretty much whatever he likes we can sign him 175% of his previous salary(10 million). If we want him back and he wants to be back there wont be an issue. That is why I loved his deal at the time I just wish we would of done the same with DJ and gave him a 2 year deal so we had some type of bird rights he will likely be a rental but West will be back IMO depending on how the season goes.
    Ah, good catch on West's status as an Early Bird FA. I thought he only qualified for non-Bird. But non-Bird does allow for 120% of previous salary, which IMO should have been more than enough anyway.

    On DJ, non-Bird applies, so we can re-sign him to up to 120% of $3.5m ($4.2m), or simply use the non-taxpayer MLE ($5m) on him. It's not a lot, but then do we really want to pay more for a backup PG? Depends I guess on whether you see him as a future starter.

    OR, we could renounce the rights to both players, and re-enter the FA market with $8-9m in cap space as some posters here want. This seems unlikely to me, but who knows.

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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Well you are not going to get a lot with 8-9mln and I'm rather fond of West, so IF this is the room we have it's a total no-brainer to me.

    I agree with Pacers4ever that it really is a shame that proposed trade to Charlotte didn't come through. There was a second year for DJ in that deal. I would have liked it also if we would have offered a second year to him when we tried to sign him as a FA, but I think it's likely he turned it down himself and they apparantly really wanted him so here we are. I hope it doesn't completely bites us in the ***, but we'll see.
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I also forgot to mention that Tyler is a better defender than West, Tyler is better at moving his feet and staying in front of people so if Seth is going to crap on Tyler for his bad D(according to him) he needs to also crap on West.
    If it was a one-on-one game, Tyler would probably be a slightly better defender than West. Unfortunately for Tebrough, both offensively and defensively, there are 9 other guys on floor with him.

    As it is, he's a drastically worse offensive player and a moderately worse defensive player West.
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  26. #144
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    I'd rather keep West then have the cap space if DW is still in charge. We'd end up overpaying 2 role players 4-5 mil for 4 year contracts. If Bird really does return I'd have to see who's available in free agency but I'd still lean toward keeping West. I think the market is going to be tighter for free agents next summer with the new LT rules kicking in and West will have to take a pay cut, it's just a matter of how much.

  27. #145
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by BRushWithDeath View Post
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    If it was a one-on-one game, Tyler would probably be a slightly better defender than West. Unfortunately for Tebrough, both offensively and defensively, there are 9 other guys on floor with him.

    As it is, he's a drastically worse offensive player and a moderately worse defensive player West.
    Of course you would say that.

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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Of course you would say that.
    I would also say that the sun generally rises in the East and water is typically wet. But I didn't want to overload one post with so many obvious things.
    "I had to take her down like Chris Brown."

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  29. #147
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Of course you would say that.
    Some could say the exact same thing to you about David West, and then you would flip out.

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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Of course you would say that.
    Almost everyone would say that. I use the word almost because, at this time, I only know of one individual who would not.

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  32. #149
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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Some could say the exact same thing to you about David West, and then you would flip out.
    I don't hate Dwest and I don't have a nickname for West to show how much "I hate him", BWD is known for hating Tyler so of course anybody(including Mcbob) is better than Tyler at anything.

    I remember people saying the same thing last year and they got shut down game after game, pacers4ever was one that was laughing at this theory in the beginning of the year and at the end of the year he didn't know what to say about it anymore(I expect him the deny it again).

    By the way don't go all crazy in thinking that I'm saying that Tyler is such a great defender all I'm saying is that he is a bit better than West, both are average defenders.

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    Default Re: Keeping David West

    Quote Originally Posted by beast23 View Post
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    Almost everyone would say that. I use the word almost because, at this time, I only know of one individual who would not.
    Ask me if I care : I remember the time I was DC's hater and I got similar comments as this one, can you remind me who was right again? ...........

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