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Thread: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

  1. #101
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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Pacers lead at the end of the 1st quarter 3 games, Miami lead the other 3. Pacers lead at half 3 games. Miami lead at half twice. And one game was tied. (Oddly enough both games we won we trailed at end of 1st quarter and were tied and behind at half.)

    Miami won 4 of the third quarters. Every game they won. The team that won the 3rd quarter won every game in the series.

    I don't know what this means. Generally I think our general success in the first half, is a good indication that our starters did well on a skill to skill basis versus the Miami starters. What does the drop in second half suggest? To me it could be a couple of things.

    1.) The bench didn't give us a whole lot. (While Lebron played nearly entire games without flinching, thus Miami's bench was sort of unimportant)
    2.) The starters ran out of gas.
    3.) Vogel got his *** beat at half time adjustments in 3 of the 5 games by Spoelstra. (Throwing out the Miami blow out in game 5 because that game was just DOA for the P's)

    Personally, if I'm being completely honest, as much as I love Frank, I think 3 was a much bigger factor than anyone here wants to admit.
    I think you are right. Mostly a superstar stepped up and beat the Pacers with only a little support from his teammates. Perhaps a great coach would have found a way to keep this from happening....

  2. #102
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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    I'm going through game-by-game using the play-by-play to analyze when games were lost or went out of control. For purposes of this discussion, I'm going to define "starters" as requiring at least 3 starters on the floor, so LBJ+DWade "abusing" Danny + bench doesn't count.

    Here's game 1, won by Miami 95-86

    Starters PG, DG, GH, RH, DW. Led 13-6 until Barbosa came in, then still leading 19-14 when Lou in for Roy and Tyler in for West. In next 3 minutes Miami takes lead and ends first quarter down by 3.

    Start second quarter with Pacers bench, Pacers lead 36-30 when starters come back in. Pacers lead 46-38 when Hill goes back out, 47-39 when DG and PG go out (1:15 left in half). Pacers lead at half 48-42.

    Second half starts with starters. Miami ties 52-52. Hill goes out with 5 fouls, Roy goes out with 4 fouls. Pacers regain lead but go back down 62-61 with 4:29 left in the 3rd. Pacers leading 70-68 when West and PG go out with 42 seconds left in 3rd (OK, 69-68 but DG at the FT line so I'll count the next point as starters). Miami ties it at end of 3rd.

    Fourth quarter starts with bench (Collison/Hans/Barbosa plus DG & West). Miami goes up 78-72 in first 3:10 of the quarter. PG & Roy back in for DG & Tyler, so call this now the starters (West, PG, Roy plus DC & Barbosa). Hill & DG back in by 7:28 (score Miami 82-75). Starters get it to within 1 at 4:51 remaining (86-85) but fall back to down 4 by 2 minutes left. PG fouls out, giving LBJ FTs, and the rest is missing shots down the stretch while Miami adds unneeded points on FTs and a jumper.

    VERDICT: The bench lost the lead at the beginning of the 4th, and the starters were unable to get it back. The lead was not lost to LBJ "abusing" anyone. The game stays even except for that one run by Miami that the starters weren't able to overcome. I'd be willing to call this one a toss-up since the starters failed to hit their shots in the last 2 minutes, but there was certainly no "abuse" of the starters by LBJ involved, and if the bench doesn't let the Heat go on that run then the starters may come out fine. In this case, the bench is on the floor because of foul trouble, so here is a game where an improved bench would have helped a lot.

    Next game in a later response.
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  4. #103
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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    I'm going to skip over the Pacer wins, since this discussion is about how we could have prevented the losses.

    Game 3, Heat win 101-93

    Starters GH, RH, DG, DW, PG. Pacers up 9-2 when West picks up a second foul and goes out. Battier and Chalmers keep Miami in it by hitting 3 point shots. Pacers lead 21-13 with 3:19 in the quarter when PG and GH go out (now bench). Pacers lead at end of first, 25-18.
    Second quarter starts with total bench (Amundson, Jones, Barbosa, Hans, Collison). DG & DW come back in with 8:49 left with score 29-26 (Haslem, Wade, LBJ + FTs from LBJ). Miami takes lead briefly, Pacers up 32-30 when Hibbert comes back in (now starters). West and Hill will go out before half but using the 3 rule starters are still in when half ends with Pacers up 54-46.

    Second half begins with all 5 starters. By 6:50 to go Miami has tied, due to 8 pts from LBJ and 4 from DWade. Roy goes out at 5:03 remaining, DW & GH go out at 2:58, score is Miami 69-65. With bench in, quarter ends Miami 76-70.

    Fourth quarter starts with bench (GH & PG plus Lou, Barbosa, DC). DG swaps out for GH at 9:37 left, score Miami 82-79. West and Hibbert come back in at 06:12 (score Miami 86-81). Starters in the rest of the game but can't get it any closer. Final 101-93.

    VERDICT: I think this is the game that folks on the "it was all LBJ against the starters" are using as their main ammunition. The run that changed the game was LBJ and DWade with the starters on the floor, and while everyone played even from that point on it was too late.
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  6. #104
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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Game 5: Everyone sucked. VERDICT: Everyone sucked. No points are awarded to either side, and I need a stiff drink for being forced to even look at it again.

    Game 6: Starters DW, DG, RH, PG, GH. Barbosa in for PG at 03:44 left in 1st, Pacers up 21-12 when DC and Tyler come in for GH and DW. Quarter ends with bench still in, Miller hits a 3 for the Heat to bring them within 28-21.

    Second quarter starts with bench, Wade hits for 4 points (PG back in at this point) and Miller hits another 3 to tie the game 28-28. DW back in, Wade hits 4 more and LBJ hits one to put Miami up 34-30 with 9:00 left and Roy comes back in (now starters on the floor). Pacers get back to within 1, DWade hits one, DG and GH come back in. DWade hits another and Miller hits another 3, Miami up 41-35. Pacers take the lead back with 5:14 left in the half, score wobbles back and forth but half ends with Pacers on top 53-51.

    Second half begins with starters in. Score wobbles more, Miami up 64-63 when DC comes in for DG (4 fouls). Miami up 68-66 when Barbosa comes in for GH. (still 3 starters on the floor). Miami up 71-69 (after West's technical) when Tyler comes in for Roy with 1:16 left in the 3rd (now bench is on the floor). Anthony, Miller, Chalmers hit (Miller & Chalmers for 3) to give Miami 79-69 lead.

    Fourth quarter DG comes in for Barbosa after 22 seconds, now starters on the floor. All starters back in by 9:53 to go during Roy FTs that bring Pacers to within 83-75. Pacers get within 5 but shots from Battier & Anthony keep Miami well ahead. Pacers cut it to 6 with 2:31 left, LBJ sends it back to 10 with 2 makes up to 1:37. Final scores are an LBJ jumper and DWade FTs to make the final score 105-93.

    VERDICT: This one is the poster child for the bench making it go belly-up. Arguably if the bench doesn't let Miami go on the unanswered run at the end of the 3rd, the Pacers have a shot because mundane scores by Anthony and Battier aren't going to keep Miami up by 10 points. The main point here is that this was NOT an LBJ or even DWade heroics game in terms of the effect on the run that gave Miami their big lead, so even if you blame the starters for not being able to get it done "in the clutch" you CAN'T claim they were abused by LBJ.
    BillS

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  8. #105

    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by BRushWithDeath View Post
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    While I generally disagree with most of the post, the highlighted portion stands out.

    I despise Kevin Garnett and everything about him. But I think one thing he most certainly is not, is a bad teammate.
    I've read stories from a few local papers that suggest he is. You never know with newspapers and such, because they tend to have their own agenda, especially when it comes to Boston sports. But I really don't find the idea too hard to believe.

    edit: Trader, I agree. And I love Frank too. And I was quick to compliment Frank because the Pacers were generally a great third quarter team. But I think he got out adjusted/coached in those final two games.

    I do think it's easier to make adjustments when you have Wade and Lebron. And really, the reason Miami won that series was because both Lebron and Wade went into "mvp mode." I also think that Spoelstra figured out stuff that we really couldn't adjust to because of the players we have. (I don't quite remember what it was, might have been PnR with Lebron or Wade that we couldn't stop. Well, that and that they figured out that PG's a great defender, but struggles the second you run his man off of screens. Which Wade did a lot of in the last two games. )
    Last edited by Sookie; 09-26-2012 at 06:33 PM.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    I mean there's not a whole lot you can do when LBJ and Wade are hitting 15 foot contested runners every time down the court. You just have tip your hat and say GG. That's what changed the series in a big way on the court. Wade and Lebron added that move to their arsenal basically between game 2 and 4 (using game 3 as an adjustment period where it went horribly wrong for them)

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    What seems to be being missed here, and I admit I didn't read every post, is that our starters only play 28-32 minutes a game. Superstars tend to play 38-42. That's 10 minutes a game more. It doesn't really matter if for 30 minutes our starting crew is the best 5 in the world, which I don't think they are - but for the sake of argument let's say it's true, when other team's best players play 10 more minutes than ours.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    What seems to be being missed here, and I admit I didn't read every post, is that our starters only play 28-32 minutes a game. Superstars tend to play 38-42. That's 10 minutes a game more. It doesn't really matter if for 30 minutes our starting crew is the best 5 in the world, which I don't think they are - but for the sake of argument let's say it's true, when other team's best players play 10 more minutes than ours.
    They played more in that series. DG and DW played around 38-40.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    I mean there's not a whole lot you can do when LBJ and Wade are hitting 15 foot contested runners every time down the court. You just have tip your hat and say GG. That's what changed the series in a big way on the court. Wade and Lebron added that move to their arsenal basically between game 2 and 4 (using game 3 as an adjustment period where it went horribly wrong for them)
    Well, yes, you can answer with points on your own next possession. Where the bench fell down was in not being able to at least answer part of the time during a run, and where the starters fell down was in not being able to do more than keep up with the scoring when they were in.

    Ultimately, it doesn't matter who gets the points, it's team points per possession that counts. DW and LBJ can be point machines, but if the Pacers can manufacture points through aggressive play (drawing fouls), and taking advantage of mismatches away from the superstars when such are available, they have a chance. Would it be easier if there was a matching DW and LBJ on our team? Of course, but it doesn't mean that the lack of same creates an impossible situation, only a very tough one.
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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    [QUOTE=OlBlu;1503817]
    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    Advanced statistics say so:

    Then you have an example to show just how silly statistics can be. Your statistical top starting five can't play with many teams in the league. That is the power of superstars, they trump balanced teams just about every time..... If you have watching the NBA for a number of years you should already know this.

    It can be done. The Pacers can beat any team in the league. They have to be able to put 4 games of that together.
    "We want Miami"

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Game 1: 3 starters played less than 30 minutes.
    Game 2: 33 minutes Roy Hibbert, Paul George, 35 minutes George Hill to 43 minutes Lebron James
    Game 3: 33 minutes Hibbert, Hill, George to 40 minutes Lebron James
    Game 4: 28 minutes West, 30 Hill, 32 Hibbert to 44 minutes Lebron, 41 minutes Wade
    Game 5: 4 starters under 30 minutes, West at 32.
    Game 6: Win or go home, the only game our starters played near the minutes of their big guns, we still lose.

    So no, our starters aren't on the floor enough, not even in the playoffs. Over half of our starting unit almost never goes over 33 minutes, we frequently have starters clock in under 30. Even in the playoffs. That's not gonna get it done unless you truly do have the best bench, reality is, I'd rather my best players on the floor longer, we need more endurance out of Hibbert and more trust in (and less fouling from) PG/GH so they can stay out there longer.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    And the champion the Pacers are trying to emulate, the 2004 Detroit Pistons, all had their starters play significant minutes in the playoffs. Hamilton and Ben Wallace averaged 40, Billups 38, and Sheed and Prince 35 (including 4 overtime periods in 23 games). That's higher than the regular season averages of 38 (Ben), 35 (Hamilton and Billups), 33 (Prince), and 31 (Sheed).

    For the Pacers, Granger and West averaged significantly more during the playoffs (especially West). George did as well, as did Hill, although his stats are skewed because he didn't start until the end of the season. The biggest concern should be, and I think is, Hibbert, who went up 1 minute per game in the playoffs (30 to 31). He needs to be able to effectively play 35 minutes a night in the playoffs. If he can't, that really hurts, because it's a good downgrade from him to Mahinmi.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by shags View Post
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    And the champion the Pacers are trying to emulate, the 2004 Detroit Pistons, all had their starters play significant minutes in the playoffs. Hamilton and Ben Wallace averaged 40, Billups 38, and Sheed and Prince 35 (including 4 overtime periods in 23 games). That's higher than the regular season averages of 38 (Ben), 35 (Hamilton and Billups), 33 (Prince), and 31 (Sheed).

    For the Pacers, Granger and West averaged significantly more during the playoffs (especially West). George did as well, as did Hill, although his stats are skewed because he didn't start until the end of the season. The biggest concern should be, and I think is, Hibbert, who went up 1 minute per game in the playoffs (30 to 31). He needs to be able to effectively play 35 minutes a night in the playoffs. If he can't, that really hurts, because it's a good downgrade from him to Mahinmi.
    Hibberts problem is because Granger and George kept getting burned he kept getting put in bad positions when the guys penetrated. Hopefully better team defense can keep Hibbert in the game. Because as we all know. We won the game when Hibbert was on the court.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    LeBron could also play all of those minutes because they almost never called him for any fouls...

    He was called for 5 fouls in six games played against us! Playing over 40 MPG! I know he's a great defender... But he ain't that good...
    Last edited by J7F; 09-28-2012 at 01:05 AM.
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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad-Mad-Mario View Post
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    Hibberts problem is because Granger and George kept getting burned he kept getting put in bad positions when the guys penetrated. Hopefully better team defense can keep Hibbert in the game. Because as we all know. We won the game when Hibbert was on the court.
    NOBODY is keeping Wade and Lebron from getting drawing fouls and getting to the line, idc how good of a defender you are. Yes Roy had some foul trouble from time to time, but he also has a well documented cardiovascular issue where he can't play extended mins all the time. Obviously Roy puts in the work to battle that as much as he can, but nobody knows if he'll ever be able to play 33-35 mins a game in a series.

    And this isn't to say that Granger and Paul played great D on those guys, but to expect them to shut those guys down is almost out of the question. The best thing you can do is play them tough and hope the refs allow physical play on both ends. You also can't let the other guys (Haslem, Battier) hit shots on you

  24. #116

    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Ace E.Anderson View Post
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    NOBODY is keeping Wade and Lebron from getting drawing fouls and getting to the line, idc how good of a defender you are. Yes Roy had some foul trouble from time to time, but he also has a well documented cardiovascular issue where he can't play extended mins all the time. Obviously Roy puts in the work to battle that as much as he can, but nobody knows if he'll ever be able to play 33-35 mins a game in a series.

    And this isn't to say that Granger and Paul played great D on those guys, but to expect them to shut those guys down is almost out of the question. The best thing you can do is play them tough and hope the refs allow physical play on both ends. You also can't let the other guys (Haslem, Battier) hit shots on you
    Wow cool your jets. I never said you had to shut down Lebron or Wade. We just need to play better defense on them, so that they can't just penetrate at will.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad-Mad-Mario View Post
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    Wow cool your jets. I never said you had to shut down Lebron or Wade. We just need to play better defense on them, so that they can't just penetrate at will.
    Add to that forcing them to work harder on defense by bricking fewer shots...
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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by J7F View Post
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    LeBron could also play all of those minutes because they almost never called him for any fouls...

    He was called for 5 fouls in six games played against us! Playing over 40 MPG! I know he's a great defender... But he ain't that good...
    Danny jacking up shots didn't put any pressure on Lebron to draw fouls.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by J7F View Post
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    LeBron could also play all of those minutes because they almost never called him for any fouls...

    He was called for 5 fouls in six games played against us! Playing over 40 MPG! I know he's a great defender... But he ain't that good...
    He is when he is playing against a team that does not penetrate but only forces long jump shots... He could defend them for a week without fouling.... If you want to get fouls on him, take him inside. We don't have anyone who can do that...... ...

  29. #120

    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by GrangeRusHibbert View Post
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    Just one of Wade or LeBron suffering a season-ending injury would make Miami beatable. We can take Boston Senior Citizens with relative ease, so we're one lucky injury away from being the front-runners in the East. We'd then have to pull the upset in the Finals.

    The Lakers look like monsters on paper, but the games aren't played on paper. Detroit proved superstarless teams can beat on-paper champions back in '04. It would take great chemistry and caching, but it can be done.
    And we're one injury away from not even going to the playoffs. I don't see how we could use this as a beacon of hope let alone even mentioning lebron getting a season ending injury which is most likely not going to hapen since he's the complete opposite of injury prone.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Good points by Blu and VNZLA... He received marginally more fouls in the other series...

    I still felt while watching the series that there were some aggressive defensive plays he made with no calls when there could have been... But it was the Playoffs... So I somewhat understand the refs just letting them play...
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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by J7F View Post
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    Good points by Blu and VNZLA... He received marginally more fouls in the other series...

    I still felt while watching the series that there were some aggressive defensive plays he made with no calls when there could have been... But it was the Playoffs... So I somewhat understand the refs just letting them play...
    Remember when Danny called himself a "decoid"? Many times Danny was on a corner playing "decoid" not putting any pressure on Lebron, not only that but it also helped Lebron to save energy.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Hibbert's main fault is his endurance and I don't think that's going to change honestly. He'll never be the 35-40 mpg player unless he mails it in on defense for a lot of that time. I hope Mahinmi is a solid find and can try to cover the rest of those minutes decently, cause Lou and Tyler were awful in the playoffs.
    "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

    ----------------- Reggie Miller

  34. #124

    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Did anyone see the bleaher report article saying the Pacers won't even "sniff" the postseason. Wow, what a joke. I think the post stupid things just to get hits.
    Here
    If games are won and lost on a calculator and piece of paper, then why do we bother to play them?

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by PD GameBattles 2k13 View Post
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    Did anyone see the bleaher report article saying the Pacers won't even "sniff" the postseason. Wow, what a joke. I think the post stupid things just to get hits.
    Here
    I don't agree with that but a case could be made that the Pacers will be in a battle for the eighth spot...... ...

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  5. Can the Pacers win the NBA championship this year?
    By Shade in forum Indiana Pacers
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