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Thread: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    So you really don't think Hibbert will make any major improvements? Even if an offense is in place that can get him the ball more often?

    Barring injuries, 5th in the East is very low, and 8th makes no sense at all.
    Hibbert has made improvements, how much room can there be left. Same with every starter but Paul George. I see Miami, Boston, NY, Brooklyn and Philly at least equal to or better than the Pacers and a couple of others made improvements too. I don't look for 8th either unless a starter is injured for some length of time....

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    and the Pacers still have the same starters
    And that's exactly what is keeping our hopes up. Those starters were good enough to be the best 5 man unit in the league last season

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    And that's exactly what is keeping our hopes up. Those starters were good enough to be the best 5 man unit in the league last season
    What? First of all, your five men have to be better than Miami's two men and they aren't. They aren't as good as Boston's best three players. Where do people get this crap that the Pacers have the best five man unit in the League? They one won playoff series against Orlando and they would not have won that if Howard had played. It is great to be optimistic. It is just silly to make such absurd statements....

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    Hibbert has made improvements, how much room can there be left. Same with every starter but Paul George. I see Miami, Boston, NY, Brooklyn and Philly at least equal to or better than the Pacers and a couple of others made improvements too. I don't look for 8th either unless a starter is injured for some length of time....
    I only really disagree with you about Philly.

    Collins is a great coach (he wears on players like Brown & Skiles do but he's still knew enough there that this isn't an issue yet) but I think Bynum is a crap shoot. Yes when he plays he's very very good but Andrew has both injury issues & frankly some dedication issues & I wonder how he will do when he is not on one of the top teams in the league. Now he could very well rise to the challenge & excell but there is also the chance he could just lose interest & stagnate or even possibly fade.

    I don't think they made enough other improvements to stay in the group. But time will tell.

    I know a lot of people are going to disagree about N.Y. but I tend to think that with Woodson on board for the full season they will have a far better record than what they had last season.

    Boston I think you over rate but I don't disagree that they are in the conversation as well.

    Miami is a given.

    The Nets are riddle so far. On paper they look to be either our equal or our superior but we do have to see how the talent meshes together. Just can't say for sure here.

    I think people are writing the Bulls off to soon. Sure they aren't going to be top3 or even top 5 but all they have to do is be top 8 and then Rose comes back & they can spoil a lot of plans.

    But the main thing is none of this matters till they tip off the season.


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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    What? First of all, your five men have to be better than Miami's two men and they aren't. They aren't as good as Boston's best three players. Where do people get this crap that the Pacers have the best five man unit in the League? They one won playoff series against Orlando and they would not have won that if Howard had played. It is great to be optimistic. It is just silly to make such absurd statements....
    Our starting unit was better than Miami's starting 5... Our issues mainly came out when Roy was on the bench... Danny's injury was another turning point in the series...

    I know you hate statistics... But they proved this point several times in the offseason discussions...

    I will give you that Miami's starters were often better than ours in the 4th Qs where it really counts... But the other three Qs routinely belonged to our starters when they were on the floor together...

    And I agree that Miami, New York, Brooklyn, Boston, and Philly COULD all be at our level or better next year... But they COULD also all end up worse too (sans Miami barring a severe injury to LeBron...) And you tend to leave that 2nd part out...
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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by J7F View Post
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    Our starting unit was better than Miami's starting 5
    At a certain level I disagree with this.

    As a unit our starting 5 scored better than Miami's starting 5 when everyone was fresh. However, our starting 5 was not capable of keeping up with Miami's top 2 starters in the extended minutes of a playoff series. Because of this, I would give the nod to Miami even given the head-to-head statistics - Miami's starters were better because they had the stamina to be able to take advantage of the mismatches when our starters had to rest.

    That said, if we have improved the bench to where they can hold the line or even lose only 50% of the ground they lost last year, it means our starters are in position to get the rest they need and come out stronger at the end of the game.

    Basically, for LBJ and DWade to put the team on their shoulders they have to be within reach. If the Pacers' bench can keep them at the ragged edge of "in the game", we have a chance.

    Overall, though, we do NOT have to be better than Miami in order to be a top-3 in the East. Why we keep focusing on Miami during the discussion of anything other than actually winning the East is beyond me. We could be 1 in the Central and 3rd in the East by just being better than Philly, NY, and NJ - none of which is guaranteed but neither are they somehow out of the question.
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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by J7F View Post
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    Our starting unit was better than Miami's starting 5... Our issues mainly came out when Roy was on the bench... Danny's injury was another turning point in the series...

    I know you hate statistics... But they proved this point several times in the offseason discussions...

    I will give you that Miami's starters were often better than ours in the 4th Qs where it really counts... But the other three Qs routinely belonged to our starters when they were on the floor together...

    And I agree that Miami, New York, Brooklyn, Boston, and Philly COULD all be at our level or better next year... But they COULD also all end up worse too (sans Miami barring a severe injury to LeBron...) And you tend to leave that 2nd part out...
    When have one, two or three players better than your entire starting five, you do not have a great starting unit. I don't care what the stats say. As soon as playoff time comes around and the superstars start logging heavy minutes, the Pacers will bite the dust with this team quickly. The team is designed for a long regular season, not the playoffs....

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Peck View Post
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    I only really disagree with you about Philly.

    Collins is a great coach (he wears on players like Brown & Skiles do but he's still knew enough there that this isn't an issue yet) but I think Bynum is a crap shoot. Yes when he plays he's very very good but Andrew has both injury issues & frankly some dedication issues & I wonder how he will do when he is not on one of the top teams in the league. Now he could very well rise to the challenge & excell but there is also the chance he could just lose interest & stagnate or even possibly fade.

    I don't think they made enough other improvements to stay in the group. But time will tell.

    I know a lot of people are going to disagree about N.Y. but I tend to think that with Woodson on board for the full season they will have a far better record than what they had last season.

    Boston I think you over rate but I don't disagree that they are in the conversation as well.

    Miami is a given.

    The Nets are riddle so far. On paper they look to be either our equal or our superior but we do have to see how the talent meshes together. Just can't say for sure here.

    I think people are writing the Bulls off to soon. Sure they aren't going to be top3 or even top 5 but all they have to do is be top 8 and then Rose comes back & they can spoil a lot of plans.

    But the main thing is none of this matters till they tip off the season.
    Bynum is easily the best center in the east by a long way. I agree with you about Chicago and that could move the Pacers even further down the list.....

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    When have one, two or three players better than your entire starting five, you do not have a great starting unit. I don't care what the stats say. As soon as playoff time comes around and the superstars start logging heavy minutes, the Pacers will bite the dust with this team quickly. The team is designed for a long regular season, not the playoffs....
    And I disagree somewhat with this. Yeah, when you get up to 3 players better then you are pretty close to being a better starting 5 without any other adjustments needing to be made, but when you only have one or even 2 superstars it doesn't automatically follow it is a better starting 5. If your starting 5 can make up for what those 2 superstars can do, then you have a better starting 5. It isn't about head-to-head comparisons, it's about how well the team does together. If it was about head-to-head then Miami would be working on their third ring this year and everyone else might as well take the season off.

    I submit that the ability of superstars to log additional minutes varies by the superstar and by how much they have to work against the opponent's bench. Even superstars get fatigued, and I think the ability of LBJ and DWade to take over was as much to our offense failing to make them work off the ball as it was due to them being so superior that no one could ever hope to stop them.

    In other words, there's more to the game than just talent. It's harder to overcome an opponent with that talent, but it can be done.
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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    I'm in the middle between Bill and Nuntius. Bill is right to say they couldn't run the minutes with Miami, but on the other hand there is something to be said about the starting 5 being better than the starting 5 of other teams (minus the minutes limits). It's not like the starting 5 barely plays, just not as much as guys like James and Wade.

    And Miami's bench was and remains vulnerable which only forces more minutes onto James and Wade.


    I'm cool on the Pacers chances to improve to the team to beat level, but I do love the assembly of balanced pieces because if you have that and have them working well as a unit it's unstoppable. Clicking as a 5 could really make a difference, and I don't think they really did that last year. It was more like a rotation of which of the 5 would be doing something next.

    More 3-4 man interactive plays this year could really change the East landscape. That's why I look to Vogel as the #1 "needs to improve" element, more than any other player. I like him, but hopefully he's bringing more development than anyone to the table. That would work wonders.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Plus with our deep stock of talent, it does open our trading doors pretty wide, let's say we're sitting around the 4 seed come Feb and insert Superstar X becomes available (it happens every year), we do have a pretty good collection of pieces to make a run at that type of person now, IMO.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    What? First of all, your five men have to be better than Miami's two men and they aren't. They aren't as good as Boston's best three players. Where do people get this crap that the Pacers have the best five man unit in the League? They one won playoff series against Orlando and they would not have won that if Howard had played. It is great to be optimistic. It is just silly to make such absurd statements....
    Advanced statistics say so:

    http://basketballvalue.com/index.php

    Also:

    Last edited by Nuntius; 09-26-2012 at 01:42 PM.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    [QUOTE=Nuntius;1503808]Advanced statistics say so:

    Then you have an example to show just how silly statistics can be. Your statistical top starting five can't play with many teams in the league. That is the power of superstars, they trump balanced teams just about every time..... If you have watching the NBA for a number of years you should already know this.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Plus with our deep stock of talent, it does open our trading doors pretty wide, let's say we're sitting around the 4 seed come Feb and insert Superstar X becomes available (it happens every year), we do have a pretty good collection of pieces to make a run at that type of person now, IMO.
    How often does a superstar really become available in a trade for the Pacers?

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    Then you have an example to show just how silly statistics can be. Your statistical top starting five can't play with many teams in the league. That is the power of superstars, they trump balanced teams just about every time..... If you have watching the NBA for a number of years you should already know this.
    You have every right to disagree with the statistics. Personally, I certainly believe that statistics don't tell the whole story.

    But don't act surprised when people express an opinion that is backed up by statistics. It's not a matter of optimism, homerism or whatever. It's just people stating the facts. Cause statistics are facts. Opinions are not facts

    I'm not trying to say that we're better than the Heat. What I'm trying to say is that this starting 5 that you seem to consider a minus since "it's still the same" is actually one of the best in the league. That's all.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    You have every right to disagree with the statistics. Personally, I certainly believe that statistics don't tell the whole story.

    But don't act surprised when people express an opinion that is backed up by statistics. It's not a matter of optimism, homerism or whatever. It's just people stating the facts. Cause statistics are facts. Opinions are not facts

    I'm not trying to say that we're better than the Heat. What I'm trying to say is that this starting 5 that you seem to consider a minus since "it's still the same" is actually one of the best in the league. That's all.
    Don't even bother with him, all he does is look at names on a piece of paper and compares it to how often ESPN says those names to decide who is better. Sometimes I doubt he even watches the games.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    You have every right to disagree with the statistics. Personally, I certainly believe that statistics don't tell the whole story.

    But don't act surprised when people express an opinion that is backed up by statistics. It's not a matter of optimism, homerism or whatever. It's just people stating the facts. Cause statistics are facts. Opinions are not facts

    I'm not trying to say that we're better than the Heat. What I'm trying to say is that this starting 5 that you seem to consider a minus since "it's still the same" is actually one of the best in the league. That's all.
    When your starting five gets abused the way Miami did to the Pacers in the playoffs, improvements need to be made. We didn't make any on that starting unit. We have no superstars and, in fact, we have no stars at all. NBA history says that is a recipe for an early exit and, no, in spite of the stats you quote, I don't think the Pacers starters are in the top ten in the NBA......

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Eleazar View Post
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    Don't even bother with him, all he does is look at names on a piece of paper and compares it to how often ESPN says those names to decide who is better. Sometimes I doubt he even watches the games.
    Actually, I think that treatment more describes a stat monkey that me. I do watch and I do pay attention to everything. I don't care what ESPN says about anything other than when they rate teams.... I don't think you will see the Pacers at the top of their list..... Nor do I think you will ever hear them say the Pacers have the best starting five in the NBA.....

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    You have every right to disagree with the statistics. Personally, I certainly believe that statistics don't tell the whole story.

    But don't act surprised when people express an opinion that is backed up by statistics. It's not a matter of optimism, homerism or whatever. It's just people stating the facts. Cause statistics are facts. Opinions are not facts

    I'm not trying to say that we're better than the Heat. What I'm trying to say is that this starting 5 that you seem to consider a minus since "it's still the same" is actually one of the best in the league. That's all.

    While this is true interpretation and application of stats often times is opinionated.


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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    When your starting five gets abused the way Miami did to the Pacers in the playoffs, improvements need to be made. We didn't make any on that starting unit. We have no superstars and, in fact, we have no stars at all. NBA history says that is a recipe for an early exit and, no, in spite of the stats you quote, I don't think the Pacers starters are in the top ten in the NBA......
    Our starting five never got abused by Miami. Our bench got abused.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Peck View Post
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    While this is true interpretation and application of stats often times is opinionated.
    That's exactly the reason that I generally do not try to interpret the stats

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    We also haven't seen what type of offense Vogel is really looking to implement. For two years now, he's only been able to implement a really simple one (which meant easy to defend). That in itself is likely to be a huge improvement on the team.

    Then this starting five will have another year's worth of experience and playing together.

    And hopefully we'll have PG making the 3rd year jump, and Roy improving where he can. David will be two years away from his ACL injury (actually a pretty big deal), Danny's still go the ability to get better (stop taking bad shots and play defense all the time) and an improved bench. I think this team is capable of being better.

    I disagree completely with the idea that Miami, Boston, NY, Brooklyn and Philly will all be better.

    Miami - okay, obviously.

    Boston - too old. The core of that team is still Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo. Rondo is apparently a disaster as a teammate and Garnett (also likely a disaster as a teammate) and Pierce are just getting too old. I won't lie though, it wouldn't surprise me if they do end up being better than NY, Brooklyn, and Philly.

    Philly - yea, good luck running a team through Bynum. He can be great, he can also be incredibly inconsistent. And he's injury prone. And he's immature.

    New York - Why on earth would anyone think New York would be better than the Pacers? Their "improvement" this season was trading Lin for Kidd and Felton. At the end of the day, Melo and Amare are a bad fit. And they play a style that just doesn't win.

    Brooklyn - They do have some talent. And I'd say they are probably likely to be better than Philly and New York. But I don't see them being better than us this season.

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Sookie View Post
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    Boston - too old. The core of that team is still Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo. Rondo is apparently a disaster as a teammate and Garnett (also likely a disaster as a teammate) and Pierce are just getting too old. I won't lie though, it wouldn't surprise me if they do end up being better than NY, Brooklyn, and Philly.
    While I generally disagree with most of the post, the highlighted portion stands out.

    I despise Kevin Garnett and everything about him. But I think one thing he most certainly is not, is a bad teammate.
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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    The bench was in the game when Miami (James) took over"? I don't think so. Our starters could do nothing with Miami in crunch time. That is why we lost so badly to that team. We would have lost to Orlando for the same reason if Howard had not been out....

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    Default Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    The bench was in the game when Miami (James) took over"? I don't think so. Our starters could do nothing with Miami in crunch time. That is why we lost so badly to that team. We would have lost to Orlando for the same reason if Howard had not been out....
    Pacers lead at the end of the 1st quarter 3 games, Miami lead the other 3. Pacers lead at half 3 games. Miami lead at half twice. And one game was tied. (Oddly enough both games we won we trailed at end of 1st quarter and were tied and behind at half.)

    Miami won 4 of the third quarters. Every game they won. The team that won the 3rd quarter won every game in the series.

    I don't know what this means. Generally I think our general success in the first half, is a good indication that our starters did well on a skill to skill basis versus the Miami starters. What does the drop in second half suggest? To me it could be a couple of things.

    1.) The bench didn't give us a whole lot. (While Lebron played nearly entire games without flinching, thus Miami's bench was sort of unimportant)
    2.) The starters ran out of gas.
    3.) Vogel got his *** beat at half time adjustments in 3 of the 5 games by Spoelstra. (Throwing out the Miami blow out in game 5 because that game was just DOA for the P's)

    Personally, if I'm being completely honest, as much as I love Frank, I think 3 was a much bigger factor than anyone here wants to admit.

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