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Thread: Picking Luck in fantasy football

  1. #26
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    TE's have been rare fantasy monsters pretty much since the year 2000. I had Gronkowski last year as well. No one is saying that TE's don't have high upside. A top end TE is worth more than top end kicker because of the difference between the number 1 TE and the number 10 TE.
    Last edited by Trader Joe; 09-04-2012 at 01:16 PM.

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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Well I can tell you it's certainly not because of your kicker. The year before Akers record breaking year, the leading kicker scored 158 points, the year before that 158 again, the year before that 159. And almost everyone of those years the difference between that number 1 kicker and the number 10 kicker was roughly 25-30 points.

    Compare that to the number 1 wide receiver and the number 10 wide receiver for example, the difference is usually about 50 points over the course of a season and has been as much as 100 points different.

    Sure kickers are nice reliable scorers, but specificlaly going after one like David Akers, just isn't a very sound strategy. It's unlikely he repeats last season ever again.
    There's four times the number of receivers than kickers. In a typical 3 WR fantasy team, by the time you get to the 3rd WR and you have 9-11 other teams drafting in your league, the pickens is slim. Point differentials and all that absolutely have zero bearing on this subject at all --- a top-flight K will outscore almost every 3rd receiver, and yet if you select a K before your 3rd receiver the entire room will snicker at you. It's silly. And those same dopes who snicker whine and complain all season long as I run up the score on them. There's common perceptions and then there's actuality. You can't just say "it's the f'n kicker, they suck, you don't even need to draft 'em" if you want to have a serious attempt at winning your league, unless you are relying on just pure blind luck and some monster fantasy stud... which..... is completely feasible. Had a guy one year not even show up to the draft or set his roster --- and won the damn championship. We had to inform him that he won after the fact, and he was like "oh... sweet."
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

  3. #28
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Dude, you're making it sound like a kicker has a David Akers 2011 season every year. Which just isn't even close to being true.

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  4. #29
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    I don't do ESPN fantasy, so maybe that's the disconnect we're having.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Dude, you're making it sound like a kicker has a David Akers 2011 season every year. Which just isn't even close to being true.
    Have I even mentioned Akers in my past 10 posts? My thoughts aren't just around Akers, they are what I go by every year in fantasy, been doing it for over a decade now. Even a non-Akers top-3 kicker will generally outscore a #3 WR or TE.

    Let me put it this way. Let's play out a draft:

    It's round 8. I've drafted 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 1 TE, 2 WRs for example. What are left are a bunch of 3rd rate receivers and then all three top kickers are available. The best WR available scored maybe 90 points last year. The best kicker scored 150. You're saying it's not wise for me to select the guy who scored 150 points last year, rather than picking up a defense or backup RB who will get maybe 1-2 starts or the best WR available last year who is a slot receiver that scored about 80 points last year?

    If you don't see sense in that, then I can't help ya.
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 09-04-2012 at 01:32 PM.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Yes, but you can always get a kicker like that in the last round is the point. Their scoring is very bunched up because of how they score.

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  7. #32
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    The point is, kickers generally score in the same range. Akers season last year was an outlier. After him, John Kasay (No. 2 fantasy kicker) and Nick Novak (No. 12 fantasy kicker) last season were separated by a whopping 18 points.
    This is exactly the point. Akers' 2011 was completely out of line with everything he's ever done before. Hell, it was out of line with everything any kicker has ever done before. And still, the difference between the best fantasy producer and the worst fantasy producer was almost entirely neglible. Kickers can occassionally win you a game. They can occassionally lose you a game. But over the course of a season, they're essentially all the same.

    If a standard league has 12 teams and plays 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K, and 1 D/ST, the kicker is unquestionably the least important. Because there isn't a significant divide between the best and worst.

    We've already gone over the 2011 points gap for QB's because that was the quickest for me to pull up.

    The best WR? Calvin Johnson 277 pts. The 24th WR? Pierre Garcon with 134. 9 points per game.

    The best RB? Ray Rice 311 pts. The 24th RB? BenJarvus Green-Ellis with 150. 10 points per game.

    Add in the flex position and WR/RB is even more valuable.

    The best TE? Rob Gronkowski 244 pts. The 12th TE? Fred Davis with 96. 9 points per game.

    The best D/ST? San Francisco 196 pts. The 12th D/ST? Cincinnati with 139. 4 points per game.

    There is a reason that all the people who get paid to do this sort of thing say to never draft a kicker before the last round. This reason is that the kicker you take in the 6th or 7th round (now 8th or 9th I guess) is going to be statisically the same as the kicker who is taken with the last overall pick. You can and should take what the so called fantasy football "experts" say with a grain of salt. But not on this issue.
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    Play McRoberts and Price! BRushWithDeath's Avatar
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
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    Have I even mentioned Akers in my past 10 posts? My thoughts aren't just around Akers, they are what I go by every year in fantasy, been doing it for over a decade now. Even a non-Akers top-3 kicker will generally outscore a #3 WR or TE.
    It's not a matter of total points. It's a matter of relative points. An elite kicker will score relatively the same as the absolute worst kicker.

    You aren't comparing a kicker to a WR. You're comparing kickers to kickers.
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  10. #34
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    I was just about to post what Brush did. This is about comparing kickers to kickers. Not kickers to 3rd wideouts.

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  11. #35
    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    The point differential from 1 to 18 doesn't matter. What matters is who is scoring points for you. You only get around 8 roster spots to start. If I've filled 6-7 starters, and I'm down to choosing between a backup RB who may never play or at best will play 1-2 times, a 3rd WR or a TE and a kicker, and there is all 3 top kickers available, you go with the option that will score the most points even if it's only 2-3 extra points/game.

    There's no sense in drafting the best available #3 WR who is projected to score 80 points this year, when there is a kicker sitting there who is projected to score 150.

    In fact, that's a pretty good way to sum up my strategy. I almost always draft the guy available who is projected (by either the pros, or by my own gut feeling) to score the most points.

    You can disagree with it if you want, I don't care, but been doing it a long time, I typically tear it up in my leagues (until I hit the playoffs, I've got some sort of curse).
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 09-04-2012 at 01:40 PM.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    I wish my league's participants all felt the same way.
    "I had to take her down like Chris Brown."

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  13. #37
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Quote Originally Posted by BRushWithDeath View Post
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    I wish my league's participants all felt the same way.
    I'm glad mine don't, if they did, I've have a lot more competition. /shrug In fact, you wanna join mine?
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Last year you said you had Gronk? How did you get Gronk? No one expected him to dominate. The WR, TE, RB, QB you pick in RD. 7-9 has a much higher ceiling than picking a kicker there. Stats over the past few years seem to suggest pretty reliably that the top kicker is going to score somewhere between 155-160 points and the 10th best kicker is going to be right around 130-135. Why reach on a kicker when you can get someone in the last round who is going to be in the same sort of ball park? I mean maybe if you had a guarantee Akers was going to repeat his previous season I could see it, but the odds on that are pretty much zero based on everything we've seen from kickers in fantasy in the past. There is a risk/reward to consider here, maybe you pick Akers in the 7th round and he probably gets you 160 this year, but maybe (like I did a few years ago) you pick a guy named Jamaal Charles in the 7th round and he ends up becoming the best fantasy back in football for that year.

    What we're saying is that on any given week, your kicker and the other teams kicker are probably just going to cancel each other out. However, your 3rd WR or your second RB might be able to be a real difference between you and the other team.
    Last edited by Trader Joe; 09-04-2012 at 01:43 PM.

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  15. #39
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    I picked him up as a free agent believe it or not, in like week 1 or week 2, as a backup. I ended up benching my starter (can't remember who it was), and going with Gronk the rest of the way and then he just caught fire down the stretch. I monitor the waiver wire and free agents almost every week, and if there's a guy out there that isn't claimed that appears to be having a better season than someone I've got, I'll make the switch. Pretty common in the first few weeks as the cream of the crop starts to shake out.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

  16. #40
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Again, that's not the case in Yahoo, the top kickers will get you 140-150 pts pretty reliably (Akers was a freak last year), and the available #3 WRs might break 100 if you're lucky. Probly not.

    The reason I compare a K to a #3 WR is that's about the same area you draft... usually 8th-9th round. We got 10 guys in both leagues, once we get to the 8th round the quality of receivers left is not very good at all, and typically not a single kicker has been picked yet because, everyone has the same silly mentality of kickers as you guys. By that time most people already have 1-2 Qbs, 2-3 RBS or 2-3 WRs and a TE... so you're generaly down to a 3rd WR or a TE or defense or backup RB. It's a no-brainer for me.. in the 8th, if the best WR is projected to score 80-90 and Mason Crosby is sitting there projected at 140 --- I'm goin' Crosby. I'll get my #3 later, maybe next round. I also will rarely draft a backup over a starter, unless someone out there is just too damn talented to pass up. A guy on your bench is getting you no points.

    What you're talking about in this situation is going ceiling vs consistency. You're betting that the guy projected to score 80 is going to exceed expectations, whereas I'm betting the guy projected to score 140 is probly going to be around there and I'm fine with that. The WR would have to exceed his expectations by 60 just to even up with the kicker.

    My scoring M.O. in fantasy is usually one of just brute force, across-the-lineup consistency. I'll get minimum 10-15 from almost every guy down the line, 20+ from my best RB, and 20-30 from the QB. But everyone gets 20+ from their RB and 25-30 from the QB... it's the teams where the manager actually placed some attention on the other slots and gets an extra 1 to 4 points from the other slots that will typically get the win.
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 09-04-2012 at 01:56 PM.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    I'll put in my two cents. Although I typically pick my kicker in the last round, I see nothing wrong with picking a kicker earlier. Typically, in a 14 round draft, any pick after round 9 is bench/waiver wire fodder. If you see a kicker in round 10 you like, you might as well draft him. Chances are your tenth round pick will go to the waiver wire eventually
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacergeek View Post
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    I'm in two leagues, and I drafted Luck as my only qb in both leagues.

    I'm very high on Luck, but that's pretty gutsy.

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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Compare that to the number 1 wide receiver and the number 10 wide receiver for example, the difference is usually about 50 points over the course of a season and has been as much as 100 points different.
    The 1 through 10 WRs are gone by the time that you start selecting kickers. That's the point.

    You don't select a KR over a WR if you think that WR is going to give you some major boost. But when trying to decide between a pool of 4th string WR, that's not going to get you many points, it might be a better idea to try and get one of the more elite kickers to set yourself apart. A big portion of that pool of WRs will be there the next round, and most likely the round after.
    Last edited by Since86; 09-04-2012 at 04:13 PM.

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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
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    I have Stevan Ridley and Moss. It would be great for my team if Ridley busts out in New England now that the starting job is his. He should certainly get his fair share of red zone opportunities.

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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    The 1 through 10 WRs are gone by the time that you start selecting kickers. That's the point.

    You don't select a KR over a WR if you think that WR is going to give you some major boost. But when trying to decide between a pool of 4th string WR, that's not going to get you many points, it might be a better idea to try and get one of the more elite kickers to set yourself apart.
    The problem is even the elite of the elite don't set you apart. David Akers had the best season a kicker has ever had in 2011. And that was 3 points a game better than the worst kicker in fantasy. Not to mention, Akers was mostly undrafted a season ago. ESPN had him as the 20th ranked kicker before the season. Yahoo had him at 22. Trying to pick an "elite" kicker is a total crapshoot. And the worst part is that it is without any real payoff. You're rolling the dice and needing snake eyes to double up. It's just not smart no matter the justification attempt.

    Huge risk. No reward.
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    I usually release my kicker when he hits his bye week.

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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Quote Originally Posted by BRushWithDeath View Post
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    The problem is even the elite of the elite don't set you apart. David Akers had the best season a kicker has ever had in 2011. And that was 3 points a game better than the worst kicker in fantasy. Not to mention, Akers was mostly undrafted a season ago. ESPN had him as the 20th ranked kicker before the season. Yahoo had him at 22. Trying to pick an "elite" kicker is a total crapshoot. And the worst part is that it is without any real payoff. You're rolling the dice and needing snake eyes to double up. It's just not smart no matter the justification attempt.

    Huge risk. No reward.

    I'd rather get 3points more a game, than have my 4th WR sitting on the bench getting zero points. Especially when I can pick up a WR that gets similiar results in the next round.

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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    I was going to nab him, but someone took him with the pick just before mine. Ended up settling for Rothlisberger.

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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Got him as my backup. He was available so why not
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    Default Re: Picking Luck in fantasy football

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    The 1 through 10 WRs are gone by the time that you start selecting kickers. That's the point.

    You don't select a KR over a WR if you think that WR is going to give you some major boost. But when trying to decide between a pool of 4th string WR, that's not going to get you many points, it might be a better idea to try and get one of the more elite kickers to set yourself apart. A big portion of that pool of WRs will be there the next round, and most likely the round after.
    A-men.
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