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Thread: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

  1. #701
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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    Uh, I hate to bring shocking news but that dude "Maddow" is a woman. Her name is Rachel.....
    I heard she really likes that Weems guy. Sees him doing big things for Cleveland. Go Indians!

    EDIT: Side note, I got your joke BWD.
    Last edited by Trader Joe; 10-23-2012 at 01:03 PM.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Says the guy who apparently can't figure out how to post a new thread
    You were being sarcastic. I was making a little joke. But, yes, I haven't found out how to post a new thread and neither could the poster you will see on the site. I was ashamed to bring it up until he noted that he couldn't start a thread either. He actually is a very respecful fellow who happens to think that both young QBs are very good.... The people who posted on what he saw here, well, not so much....

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    I heard she really likes that Weems guy. Sees him doing big things for Cleveland. Go Indians!

    EDIT: Side note, I got your joke BWD.
    Good one!! But, I was right, Weeden outplayed Luck and now is tied with him with QB rating and I am sure he will soon pass Luck and leave him in the dust like all of the other starting rookie QBs already have.....

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Hey if you can find me one post where I say RGIII won't be a great QB then go for it.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Hey if you can find me one post where I say RGIII won't be a great QB then go for it.
    Nope, not you Joe and that is why I respect you as a poster.... Others here, well, no so much.....

  6. #706

    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    In case OB happened to miss this on the last page. I'm very interested in how this will be spun...

    Quote Originally Posted by BRushWithDeath View Post
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    Check this out from the New York Times.

    http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2...al-comparison/

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by bunt View Post
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    In case OB happened to miss this on the last page. I'm very interested in how this will be spun...


    There is no need for spin. It talks about RGIII's astounding stats and accomplishments and it makes a host of excuse for Luck and his miserable stats that are mirrored here every day.
    I have said that Luck certainly leads the league in excuse makers and this is just another one of them. But, as he points out, Luck is tied for next to last in QB rating and his pass completion percentage is low. He even points out that RGIIII leads in yards per pass attempt because of his high completion percentage. High completion percentage is one of the marks of a great QB. People here once told me it didn't matter that Luck couldn't deliver the long ball because he was so accurate on the short passes. Well, RGIII is much more accurate than Luck is and Luck keep trying to throw the long ball with a lousy percentage of success.....

  8. #708
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    Quote Originally Posted by bunt View Post
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    In case OB happened to miss this on the last page. I'm very interested in how this will be spun...
    Excellent article. Almost exactly what I've been saying.

    Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    There is no need for spin. It talks about RGIII's astounding stats and accomplishments and it makes a host of excuse for Luck and his miserable stats that are mirrored here every day.
    I have said that Luck certainly leads the league in excuse makers and this is just another one of them. But, as he points out, Luck is tied for next to last in QB rating and his pass completion percentage is low. He even points out that RGIIII leads in yards per pass attempt because of his high completion percentage. High completion percentage is one of the marks of a great QB. People here once told me it didn't matter that Luck couldn't deliver the long ball because he was so accurate on the short passes. Well, RGIII is much more accurate than Luck is and Luck keep trying to throw the long ball with a lousy percentage of success.....
    Are you sure you can read?

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  10. #710

    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    There is no need for spin. It talks about RGIII's astounding stats and accomplishments and it makes a host of excuse for Luck and his miserable stats that are mirrored here every day.
    I have said that Luck certainly leads the league in excuse makers and this is just another one of them. But, as he points out, Luck is tied for next to last in QB rating and his pass completion percentage is low. He even points out that RGIIII leads in yards per pass attempt because of his high completion percentage. High completion percentage is one of the marks of a great QB. People here once told me it didn't matter that Luck couldn't deliver the long ball because he was so accurate on the short passes. Well, RGIII is much more accurate than Luck is and Luck keep trying to throw the long ball with a lousy percentage of success.....
    Lol, we couldn't really have expected any different of a response.

    I think OB must have skipped all the bolded parts...

    Luck vs. Griffin, a Statistical Comparison
    By CHASE STUART
    Chase Stuart writes about the historical and statistical side of football at his site, FootballPerspective.com

    After seven weeks, Robert Griffin III of the Redskins has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. He leads the N.F.L. with a 70.4 completion percentage, and could become the first rookie to lead the league in that category since Parker Hall with the Rams in 1939.

    Griffin also ranks first in yards per attempt with an 8.5 average, and could become the first rookie since another Ram, Bob Waterfield in 1945, to lead the N.F.L. in that statistic. Only two rookies in professional football history have ever led the league in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. The first was another Redskin, Sammy Baugh, in 1937; the last was Greg Cook, in the American Football League in 1969 (his career was ruined by a shoulder injury that year).

    Griffin’s statistical domination of the record book has been astounding. And that’s before we get to the fact that he has 468 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns in seven games, putting Cam Newton’s rookie rushing records in both categories (706 and 14) in jeopardy.

    Griffin will always be compared to the man selected one spot before him in the 2012 draft, Andrew Luck. And on the surface, there’s no comparison. Luck ranks 32nd in completion percentage (53.6) and 25th in yards per attempt (6.7). Whereas Griffin ranks third in traditional passer rating (101.8) behind Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning, Luck is tied with Brandon Weeden (72.3) and ahead of only Matt Cassel for last place.

    But traditional statistics don’t always tell the full story, especially when we’re dealing with a sample size that’s smaller than half a season. Those watching Luck have usually come away thinking that he’s the next great quarterback, despite the raw numbers. Fortunately, there’s a way to fill in the rather large gap between perception and statistical production. One of those tools is ESPN’s Total QBR, which ranks Luck as the sixth-best quarterback in the N.F.L. this season. That’s even ahead of Griffin, who is eighth in QBR.

    Jeff Bennett of ESPN Stats & Information, in a telephone interview, was able to help explain why Luck was not only the best rookie quarterback this season, but also perhaps the most underrated quarterback in the N.F.L.

    Difficulty of Throws

    It’s a gross generalization, but Luck plays in a vertical offense while Griffin plays in a horizontal one. Griffin ranks first in completion percentage while Luck ranks 32nd, but that has as much to do with the throws they’re asked to make as each quarterback’s accuracy. Luck‘s average pass attempt has traveled 10.2 yards past the line of scrimmage, the longest average pass distance in the league (this was before “Monday Night Football”; Jay Cutler was second at 9.9 entering the game). Griffin averages 7.9 yards downfield per pass attempt, slightly below the league average of 8.2.

    And Luck’s long average pass distance isn’t simply a product of throwing lots of incomplete passes down the field. His average pass distance on completions is 8.6 yards past the line of scrimmage, also highest in the N.F.L. (Cutler was fourth at 8.3 entering Monday night). Griffin’s completions come an average of 5.8 yards from the line of scrimmage, well below the league average of 6.6.

    Those numbers agree with Brian Burke’s data at Advanced NFL Stats, which show that Griffin has thrown only 14 percent of his passes 15-plus yards past the line of scrimmage, the lowest rate in the league. Luck has thrown only 11 percent of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, while Griffin is in an offense that has let him throw 44 passes at or behind the line, accounting for 23 percent of his attempts. Coach Mike Shanahan and his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, deserve credit for molding an offense that fits Griffin’s strengths. Unfortunately for Luck, nothing is being made easy for him in Indianapolis.

    Yards After the Catch

    Casting Luck as a downfield thrower is true, but only half the story. Unlike many rookie quarterbacks, whether through design or lack of talent, Luck rarely has a running back as a checkdown option. According to Footballguys.com, Colts running backs have been targeted on just 7 percent of all Indianapolis passes, the lowest mark in the league. Conversely, Colts receivers have been targeted on 72 percent of Indianapolis attempts, the highest mark in the N.F.L.

    In the same vein, much of Griffin’s production has come via yards after the catch. On average, passers in 2012 have gained 56 percent of their yards through the air and 44 percent on yards after the catch by their receivers. For Griffin, 51.4 percent of his yards have come via his receivers after the catch, the fifth-highest mark in the league. Luck, in large part because of his downfield passing, has gained 68.9 percent of his yards through the air, the highest percentage in the league, and therefore has been helped the least in terms of yards after the catch.

    However, simply putting the stats in this context does not mean that Luck has been a better passer than Griffin; rather, it is to simply close the extraordinary gap created by traditional statistics. Griffin’s completion percentage and yards per attempt average are still more impressive even after adjusting for the difficulty of his throws. If we looked simply at their passing numbers, even ESPN’s Total QBR would rank Griffin ahead of Luck, by a score of 68.7 to 60.7. And while you know there is more to being a quarterback than just passing, you might be surprised to learn that looking at those things actually vaults Luck ahead of Griffin.

    Running for Purpose

    Griffin has rushed for 468 yards, averaged 7.6 yards per carry and scored six touchdowns, while Luck has rushed for only 115 yards on 5.8 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns. But according to ESPN, Luck has been the more valuable runner this year. How can that be?

    Luck has only 18 true carries this season, with 2 of his 20 carries coming on kneel-downs. Luck doesn’t run very often, choosing his spots carefully. Despite only 18 true rushes, Luck has 10 first-down runs on scrambles, most in the league (Griffin and Michael Vick each have nine). Seven of those 10 have come on third down; no other quarterback more than 4 scrambles for 1st downs on 3rd down this year. Over all, 12 of his 18 runs have gone for first downs, while Griffin has gained first downs on only 41 percent of his 61 runs (excluding kneel-downs).

    Another reason Griffin’s rushing value is depressed in ESPN’s system is that he has five fumbles this season and has only recovered one (his teammates have recovered two). Luck has yet to fumble on a running play this year. Add it all up, and Luck has a near-perfect rating of 99.8 on runs this season, while Griffin has an impressive but less stellar 62.0 rating.

    Still, because rushing isn’t a large component of Luck’s game, that wasn’t enough to vault him over Griffin. What was?

    Clutch performances

    According to Bennett, even accounting for rushing, Griffin still edges Luck in QBR, 75.7 to 65.8. However, ESPN also adds an element to its calculation that gives quarterbacks more credit (or blame) for their performance in high-leverage plays. This is designed to quantify a player’s performance in the clutch. As a general rule, statisticians agree that clutch performance is not predictable or repeatable, but no one doubts its impact in explaining what happened. So while Luck may not continue to be a particularly clutch quarterback, he certainly has played well in crucial situations so far in his early career. By applying this clutch weight, Griffin’s QBR dips slightly to 71.8 while Luck’s rating improves to 73.0.

    Luck led a memorable fourth-quarter comeback against the Green Bay Packers, and he also led a game-winning drive against the Vikings in the final 31 seconds. He nearly had a third memorable performance: against the Jaguars, He led a fourth-quarter comeback, giving the Colts a the lead with one minute to go. After a quick Jacksonville touchdown, he nearly led Indianapolis back to victory.

    Hidden Factors

    Another metric that traditional individual stats ignore is penalties. Luck has added more value to his team on called penalties, like defensive pass interference and defensive holding, than any other quarterback in the league. Griffin has also been drawing key flags — he ranks third in value added via penalty — a sign that both quarterbacks are putting stress on defenses.

    Technically, ESPN does not take into account the strength of opposing defenses, but Bennett and his team have come up with a “defense-adjusted” QBR. Luck has faced tougher defenses this season (Chicago in particular, along with Green Bay and the Jets), and his opponent-adjusted Total QBR is 76.1. While Griffin’s schedule hasn’t been full of cupcakes, it has been below average, and the opponent-adjustment brings him down to 67.2.

    Conclusion

    Both Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III have been excellent this year, but only Griffin looks great when examining traditional metrics. The above analysis isn’t intended to denigrate Griffin; if anything, it should raise questions about why the coaches in Indianapolis are making things so difficult for Luck. He has being asked to throw more deep passes and has made fewer checkdowns than just about any quarterback in the league, despite an extremely inexperienced set of targets after Reggie Wayne. He has also being asked to throw the ball frequently — he ranks third in pass attempts per game, the cost of doing business when paired with a below-average defense and an anemic running game. As a result, his completion percentage and yards per attempt averages are underwhelming, but it’s tough to say how well Griffin would do if the players switched teams. Griffin may have the highlight reel runs and the showy statistics, but Luck has arguably been even more impressive under considerably more challenging circumstances.
    Man, it's fun cherry picking stats, facts, and opinions!

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Are you sure you can read?
    That is very funny because I was wondering the same thing about you

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    That is very funny because I was wondering the same thing about you
    I can't read. I am not even a real person.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    I can't read. I am not even a real person.
    Now that would be very disturbing. I just went to look in a mirror. Wow!! Not pretty but I am a real person!!

  14. #714

    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Guys, I just heard on the radio a Colts coach say that Andrew Luck hasn't been playing as well as RGIII on purpose because Luck doesn't want to win the rookie of the year. He's actually purposefully throwing incompletions to drive down his percentage and passer rating. He doesn't want to get caught up in individual accolades and wants the focus to be on the team. As I said, I heard this on the radio so I don't have any way to back this up. But if you give me some time I'll find some anonymous posters on another forum that will back me up here.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    I also checked in on the Redskins forum and they have a member who has posted here once (he can't find a way to start a new thread and neither can I although I have asked for information a few times) and he is posting comments from folks here about Luck and RGIII. They find you all most amusing...... and a bit crazy..... feel free to check it out.....
    They're not even talking about THIS forum, so they aren't finding 'us' amusing at all. Also, 99% of the entire thread is from March anyway. Of the very few posts in October only one was saying Griffin was clearly better. The others understand the situation he's been put in.

    Learn to read.
    Last edited by xBulletproof; 10-23-2012 at 02:07 PM.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by xBulletproof View Post
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    They're not even talking about THIS forum, so they aren't finding 'us' amusing at all. Also, 99% of the entire thread is from March anyway.

    Learn to read.
    Well, it is not me who can't read. I can't help it if you cannot find it. They one whole thread devoted to this forum and the posters here....

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by xBulletproof View Post
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    They're not even talking about THIS forum, so they aren't finding 'us' amusing at all. Also, 99% of the entire thread is from March anyway. Of the very few posts in October only one was saying Griffin was clearly better. The others understand the situation he's been put in.

    Learn to read.
    Reading is fundamental.
    Last edited by Trader Joe; 10-23-2012 at 02:13 PM.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by bunt View Post
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    Guys, I just heard on the radio a Colts coach say that Andrew Luck hasn't been playing as well as RGIII on purpose because Luck doesn't want to win the rookie of the year. He's actually purposefully throwing incompletions to drive down his percentage and passer rating. He doesn't want to get caught up in individual accolades and wants the focus to be on the team. As I said, I heard this on the radio so I don't have any way to back this up. But if you give me some time I'll find some anonymous posters on another forum that will back me up here.
    Man if you heard it then it has to be true!
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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    Well, it is not me who can't read. I can't help it if you cannot find it. They one whole thread devoted to this forum and the posters here....
    I know what thread you're talking about. He even talks about not being able to start a thread like you claimed, but he wasn't talking about here. He went to a Colts specific forum. And yes, 99% of the posts are from March.

    So no, you can't read and I can find it.

    **EDIT**Just for fun, here is his post he talks about in the Redskins forum thread and look, it's NOT on Pacers Digest. I just cut and pasted the Redskins forum message into google to find it's other place on the internet, took 5 seconds.

    Oh, oh, and look. It's from MARCH.

    http://forums.colts.com/index.php?/t...n/#entry185640

    God damn, you can't get ANYTHING right. It's down right disgraceful to be wrong so much and think you aren't. This is purposely lying about things to help your argument. This wasn't an accident. He couldn't prove his **** so he made things up hoping nobody would look. God damn, somebody ban this joker.
    Last edited by xBulletproof; 10-23-2012 at 02:27 PM.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by OlBlu View Post
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    I know you are jaded listening to Irsay's lies over the years but Washington always finds a way to sign anyone they want to sign. They will do it again next year... King knows their situation and he knows Washington will find ways around it.....
    Since your in the area you should look up some articles on the Redskins FA wr target for 2012. I give you a hint it wasn't Garcon.

    The Redskins are screwed on the cap in 2013. They have a ton of dead money still on the books and a 10 million dollar cap penality from signing "those" great players of the past (Haynworth and Hall).

    Either way we will see how the redskins fare under these restrictions of having no first round pick for another 2 years and very little money to spend on FA's.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gamble1 View Post
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    Since your in the area you should look up some articles on the Redskins FA wr target for 2012. I give you a hint it wasn't Garcon.

    The Redskins are screwed on the cap in 2013. They have a ton of dead money still on the books and a 10 million dollar cap penality from signing "those" great players of the past (Haynworth and Hall).

    Either way we will see how the redskins fare under these restrictions of having no first round pick for another 2 years and very little money to spend on FA's.

    I believe you will see that they find a way to do something spectacular in free agency. Who cares what their first choice was in 2012? Garcon has been hurt with something like turf toe that can only get better by staying off of it. I think they made a great choice in Garcon and he will pay off for them when healthy..... They got RGIII, they don't need those first round picks when they have him. There is great optimism here as the article I linked suggested. The press here believes they will find a way to be a player in free agency.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by xBulletproof View Post
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    I know what thread you're talking about. He even talks about not being able to start a thread like you claimed, but he wasn't talking about here. He went to a Colts specific forum. And yes, 99% of the posts are from March.

    So no, you can't read and I can find it.

    **EDIT**Just for fun, here is his post he talks about in the Redskins forum thread and look, it's NOT on Pacers Digest. I just cut and pasted the Redskins forum message into google to find it's other place on the internet, took 5 seconds.

    Oh, oh, and look. It's from MARCH.

    http://forums.colts.com/index.php?/t...n/#entry185640

    God damn, you can't get ANYTHING right. It's down right disgraceful to be wrong so much and think you aren't. This is purposely lying about things to help your argument. This wasn't an accident. He couldn't prove his **** so he made things up hoping nobody would look. God damn, somebody ban this joker.
    You could be right about this.... I never even thought about it being to another forum. I thought he was talking about this site. I was out looking for links and sources as some of you demanded. I gave the link so why did I think no one would look.... One can be wrong and not be lying. If I was wrong, then so be it and I apologize. What do you want, a blood sacrifice?

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Didn't you just say yesterday that free agency was not a good way to build a team?

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by DGPR View Post
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    Man if you heard it then it has to be true!
    I did hear it and I can't find anywhere that does a transcript of the show. I have even tried to call in to get one but one can't get through because of the show traffic..... I'm open to suggestions.... They even played some country song that said something about thanking God for getting what you got instead of what you wanted. Sorry, not a country music fan so I didn't recognize the singer

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Didn't you just say yesterday that free agency was not a good way to build a team?
    I did and I believe that. Washington is a good example isn't it........ I thought Mario Williams was a good pick up for the Bills. It doesn't look like it now....

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