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Thread: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ace E.Anderson View Post
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    Who Is the Offensive Rookie of the Year?
    By Bill Barnwell on November 28, 2012 11:43 AM ET

    The arrival of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III into the National Football League could not have gone much more swimmingly. In fact, while expectations were high for the top two picks in the 2012 draft, it's arguable that they've both exceeded whatever lofty expectations they rode in on over the summer. Luck is leading a team that went 2-14 last season on an improbable playoff run in the AFC South, while RG3 has become the league's most exciting player and might even be the best player in the NFC East this year. Fans of the Colts and Redskins and good football have to be ecstatic at what their respective organizations are set up to do over the next 15 years.

    Which one is the Offensive Rookie of the Year? Since they're about to spend the next 15 years being compared with each other to figure out which player from the Class of 2012 is the more dominant quarterback, there's no reason for that to start any later than now.

    I think the best way to figure that out is to make a case for each player from the perspective of his campaign, see whose case makes more sense and is easier to argue, and put that player in the lead with five games to go. Since I've spent the week hearing from just about every Giants fan I know that they're terrified to play RG3 this Monday night, let's start with him.
    The Case for RG3

    1. The Numbers To an extent that I don't think people realize, Robert Griffin's numbers as a quarterback of any vintage are ridiculous. Compared to Luck statistically, Griffin looks like an entirely different player.

    Player Cmp % Yds/Att TD-to-INT Ratio
    RG3 67.5% 8.2 4:1
    Luck 56.8% 7.1 1:1


    Those are truly staggering differences. Luck looks like your typical above-average rookie quarterback, a talented player prone to mental mistakes and forcing throws at the wrong times. His rookie year is not much different from that of the franchise quarterback he succeeded in Indianapolis; in 1998, Peyton Manning led the league in interceptions (28) in his up-and-down rookie campaign.

    Griffin's performance is basically unprecedented for a rookie quarterback. Pro-football-reference.com uses index statistics that compare a player's performance to the league averages for a quarterback during the season(s) in questions to see how they performed in the context of their day; by those measures, Griffin has the second-best era-adjusted completion percentage for a rookie quarterback with 200 attempts or more, narrowly trailing Ben Roethlisberger. He's fourth in yards per attempt, with only Roethlisberger, Marc Bulger, and Mark Rypien ahead of him (and the latter two were playing after a year or more of sitting on the bench).

    The only rookie quarterback since the merger to throw interceptions less frequently or have a better quarterback rating than Griffin, again adjusted for era, is Dan Marino. So, basically, RG3 is right up there with Marino and Roethlisberger as the most statistically impressive rookie quarterback in NFL history and that doesn't even take into account his impact as a rusher.

    Not bad, right?

    2. He's Had No Receivers Despite Washington's best efforts to spend money this offseason and procure RG3 some weapons to throw to, their receiving corps has fallen apart this year. After shelling out big bucks for Pierre Garcon and seeing him catch that long touchdown pass from RG3 against the Saints in Week 1, Garcon's been injured virtually all season. Josh Morgan has been more notable for costing Washington their game against the Rams than for anything else, and Fred Davis tore his Achilles and is done for the year.

    Washington's leading receivers are 33-year-old backup Santana Moss, 2011 third-rounder Leonard Hankerson, Morgan, and 2011 sixth-rounder Aldrick Robinson. Backup tight end Logan Paulsen has taken over for Davis. If Griffin were really struggling this year, we'd be looking at his receiving corps and saying that he didn't have anything to work with, just like we did with Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville. Instead, he's been brilliant with these very same players.

    3. He's Captured the Cultural Zeitgeist We would be naive to ignore that RG3 has become a phenomenon in a way that few young quarterbacks have, especially during their rookie seasons. Washington has a way of turning their star athletes (or their Nick Youngs) into larger-than-life figures, but Griffin would be a superstar in any market. Without a truly dominant team or a player running away with the MVP this year, Griffin's arguably become the biggest story in football. That shouldn't be enough for him to win the award on its own, but it absolutely means something in terms of his case.
    The Case for Andrew Luck

    1. He's the Big Winner Luck's statistics don't compare to Griffin's, but he's been part of a revolutionized organization that looks to be headed to the playoffs. After going 2-14 a year ago, the Colts are now 7-4 and almost surely on their way to a stunning wild-card berth. The Colts made other changes in their lineup and brought in a new coaching staff this offseason, but it's clear that the biggest difference between last year's team and this year's model is the gap between Curtis Painter and Andrew Luck. While Griffin's Redskins have as many wins now (five) as they did all of last season, they have just a one-in-five shot of making the playoffs.

    2. Luck Has Won With Less While Griffin's receiving corps is a group of nobodies, Luck has virtually nothing to work with short of Reggie Wayne. Outside of Wayne, Luck's targets have been rookie third-rounders T.Y. Hilton and Dwayne Allen, along with Rams castoff Donnie Avery and injured second-rounder Coby Fleener. His running game has been virtually nonexistent; while Griffin has enjoyed the services of breakout star Alfred Morris on the ground, Luck has been saddled with the combination of Vick Ballard and Donald Brown. In fact, while Griffin has done far more cumulative work as a runner, Luck has been incredibly efficient in his scrambles. He has five rushing touchdowns, which is more than the rest of his team combined.

    Furthermore, while their schedule masks the pain, Indianapolis's defense is truly bad. They're 22nd in points allowed, and the only teams they've been able to hold under 20 points are the Jaguars, Bills, Titans, and Browns. In terms of advanced metrics, the Indianapolis defense is last in the league in defensive DVOA, and they're not good at anything, since they're 31st against the pass and 32nd against the run. You can argue that there's certainly talent there, since Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney are on the roster, but virtually every impact name on Indianapolis's defense has missed their fair share of time this season, and Luck has been forced to lead the team to victories without them.

    3. He's the Leader Had he struggled, it would have been extremely easy to give Luck a writeoff for this 2012 season. Turning around a 2-14 team is hard enough, but once Colts head coach Chuck Pagano was forced to leave the team to undergo leukemia treatment, it would have been totally understandable if a young, talent-poor team treaded water or regressed in his absence. Instead, the team has rallied around their coach, and Luck has become the team's de facto leader in the process.

    There's absolutely no reason to criticize Griffin for taking on several endorsement campaigns before and during his rookie season, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Luck left endorsement money on the table so he could shave his head in support of his coach. He's not just the face of the franchise; he's its unquestioned leader in a time of serious adversity, too.
    And the Winner Is

    I certainly don't think that this is a finished race for Rookie of the Year, and I think there are extenuating circumstances that make the case less cut-and-dried on either side, but if the question is simply "Which of these two players has performed better this year?" I think the evidence pretty clearly points to Robert Griffin III. I'm not a slave to statistics when it comes to measuring an individual player's performance the individual stats in football just aren't good enough to trust them that implicitly, whether they're old-school stats or advanced ones but the difference between the two players in that table above is pretty stark. If there were plenty of soft factors pointing toward Luck that Griffin didn't have any reply to, I think it would be fair to call it a toss-up, but Griffin has spent the year throwing to backups and has the lowly Redskins in sight of .500, even if they fall short of the playoffs. I suspect that people who are more wowed with quarterback wins as a stat will see Luck earning a likely playoff appearance and punch him in as Rookie of the Year without giving the idea much further thought, but given each player's contributions to their team, a wild-card berth just isn't enough for me to ignore the chasm in performance between the two players. Barring a notable collapse from Griffin and a five-game stretch of brilliance from Luck, I think RG3 is going to be the deserving Offensive Rookie of the Year.


    So this is what the NFL has become, fantasy football is dictating who is having the better year. This is a hack job if I have ever seen one. RGIII's stats are impressive, but I'm more concerned with wins. Luck taking a 2-14 team on his back and taking them to the playoffs should end the debate. Barnwell conveniently omitted RG3's suspect chin and toughness, which I believe is a huge factor for QB's
    David "And One" West

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  3. #1527
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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Serious question: what does chin and toughness mean? Never heard that phrase used before.

    I am glad I dont have a vote because this decision is going to be tough as hell. Unless one of them wins out, Luck has the advantage IMO because he has really produced and pulled out some great wins (and now the team is playing for Coach, PS saw a bunch of Chuckstrong shirts for sale the other day. Very cool) which is really an improvement from last year. But the Redskins have improved greatly on offense, and RG3 is a player who you literally cant blink when he is on the field.

    I would not be surprised to see a tie, but either way both have had outstanding years.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Not a very thorough analysis of the 2 QBs.

    Not a mention of difficulty level of the offense and the type of throws the QBs are asked to make or the fact that most of RG3s passes are short with most of his yardage being yards after carry.

    Guess mentioning that would have made it harder for him to come to the conclusion that RG3 is better.

    Granted RG3 is good but he's not being asked to make the type of throws Luck is making.

  5. #1529

    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Unless RG3 screws up royally, he's going to win OROY.

    But who cares? They're both good. The important point is when will they win titles? I'd love to see a Colts vs Redskins SB.
    Don't ask Marvin Harrison what he did during the bye week. "Batman never told where the Bat Cave is," he explained.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Luck is overrated and the Colts will be lucky to win more than 3 games this year. Wayne is old, and the defense does not fit the personnel.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Anyone who still thinks RGIII should be ROY needs to have their head examined. RGIII already had a game almost identical to Luck's game today against the Giants, where he made mistakes. Luck did in this game too. Both guys had a late game surge to put their team in position to win. But only ONE of them came out with the W. RGIII lost that game to the Giants and afterwards the press acted like he didn't do as much to lose that game as he did to win it. Luck had the same experience here. He did enough to lose the game that's for sure, but he didn't lose it. RGIII is a nice player but you can have him. If I had it to do over knowing what I know about both guys today, I'd pick Luck hands down 100 times out of 100. I'm not saying RGIII is bad, I'm saying is that I think Luck is better.
    Last edited by travmil; 12-02-2012 at 05:01 PM.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    huh? Isn't the washington vs giants game tomorrow?

    Edit: nevermind, guess you meant the week 7 matchup

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Guess i need m head examined.

    RG3 made plentybof mistajes that tame, but he didnt lose the gam. Our secondary and lack of psss rush did

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    Quote Originally Posted by vapacersfan View Post
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    Guess i need m head examined.

    RG3 made plentybof mistajes that tame, but he didnt lose the gam. Our secondary and lack of psss rush did
    Your whole team did, rg3 included. He didn't blame RG3.

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  12. #1535

    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    If QB ratings took away Yards after catch and drops. Lucks stats would trump RGIIIs, let along the smell test.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by vapacersfan View Post
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    Guess i need m head examined.

    RG3 made plentybof mistajes that tame, but he didnt lose the gam. Our secondary and lack of psss rush did
    I see you're conveniently forgetting, in much the same way the media did, that Griffin had a pick and lost a fumble. The pick led to points and his defense rescued him on the fumble by taking it back on the very next play. Both were crucial turnovers at crucial times. The point is that they have both had games where mistakes were made. Only one has an 8-4 record despite this fact. As I said above, I'm not saying RGIII is bad, I'm only saying I think Luck's better.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad-Mad-Mario View Post
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    If QB ratings took away Yards after catch and drops. Lucks stats would trump RGIIIs, let along the smell test.
    Right, because ale o RG3 receivers have veen reliable. No dropped passes by our receicers or tes all season

    I agree about YAC, but e has proven all season he can air it out

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    I neet said i forgot abything. Rg3 mase mistakes. He Still had a position to win if the defense doesn't get out of Long pass for a td. On a double move no less

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Manning threw that 77 yard TD into double coverage. If there was a double move, the 'Skins recovered and had two guys there all over Cruz. Cruz just beat them on that play. I have no idea what you're talking about, I don't see a double move. Manning and Cruz are great players. Great players make great plays, and sometimes you get beat because of it. Did RGIII put them in a position to win? Yes, I never said he didn't and in fact said that he did. Were the mistakes he made bad ones that can be pointed to as part of the reason his team lost? Sorry, but no matter which way you try to paint it, that answer is also yes. If The Colts had lost this game today all anyone would be talking about is how Luck threw 3 picks and threw them right out of the game. But the Colts didn't lose.



    Yeah, that's a go route out of the slot right into the heart of the defense. Manning and Cruz just beat them on that play. No double move whatsoever.
    Last edited by travmil; 12-02-2012 at 06:18 PM.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by vapacersfan View Post
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    Right, because ale o RG3 receivers have veen reliable. No dropped passes by our receicers or tes all season

    I agree about YAC, but e has proven all season he can air it out
    You don't prove you can air it out, by only doing it when the guy is wide open

    11 completions all year of more than 20 yards. And how many of those were only 20 yards because of YAC
    Last edited by Mad-Mad-Mario; 12-02-2012 at 06:08 PM.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    My bad. I have gotten used to us getting burned on the double move all season.

    Bottom line our secondary got shredeed, liek usual.

    And yes, RG3 made mistakes.

    I guess using your logic if both had won it would have been a tie for who is the better player. Sorry, I cant base who is the better player on how well both did against the super bowl champs.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    I'm impressed by both of these guys. Two of the best QB's to enter the league in a long time. I consider both of them exciting. I've only seen RGIII a couple times, so I am not in the best situation to judge. But Luck has "it". He is aggressive down the stretch along the same lines as Peyton and he may actually be more talented. Just an amazing thought and it might be true.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    I'm impressed by both of these guys. Two of the best QB's to enter the league in a long time. I consider both of them exciting. I've only seen RGIII a couple times, so I am not in the best situation to judge. But Luck has "it". He is aggressive down the stretch along the same lines as Peyton and he may actually be more talented. Just an amazing thought and it might be true.
    Hes much more mobile, as you saw on that final drive. He ran 9 yards, might have been 10 who knows. Then he had another run for a first down. Then on the TD the threat of the run messed with the Defense. Manning couldn't have done that. Not saying hes destined to be in that category. But good signs.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    I really dont understand why these guys are gonna be compared to each other there entire career's.

    They will both probably go down as GOAT QB's when its all said and done
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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Griffin had 2 good games against the Cowboys and Eagles. Before that Griffin had 8 TDs in 9 games. The collective football world makes fun of those teams. But then its supposed to be impressive when somebody balls all over them.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Luck is clutch RG3 isn't.
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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    RG3 is impressive stat-wise and excitement wise... but I don't think it's even close when comparing the two's clutchness and 4th-quarter performances. RG3 does most of his damage over the entire course of the game and hasn't been faced with many late-game situations that he's had to put the team on his shoulder, and Luck is doing it almost every single game. How many 4th quarter comebacks does he have now? 6? It's ridiculous.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopdog23 View Post
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    Luck is clutch RG3 isn't.
    I love blanket statements that have little thought and no merit.

    I can play as well. RG3 has skill, Luck doesnt.

    Bam. Added a whole lot..

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
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    RG3 is impressive stat-wise and excitement wise... but I don't think it's even close when comparing the two's clutchness and 4th-quarter performances. RG3 does most of his damage over the entire course of the game and hasn't been faced with many late-game situations that he's had to put the team on his shoulder, and Luck is doing it almost every single game. How many 4th quarter comebacks does he have now? 6? It's ridiculous.
    Luck is definitly winning in that category.

    Of course, if you break it down (and correct me if I am wrong) with the exception of the Steelers game where we got our asses handed to us, RG3 has not had many chances to be clutch late in the game or on the last drive.

    I can remember of two games in perticular. The Giants game, which we obviously lost (though he did have an amazing play that was very clutch, which many people seem to have forgotten before Eli went all Eli) and then the Cowboys game. Again, where he was clutch on several drives late in the game.

    Obviously I cant argue RG3 could have came up with one more big play to end the NYG game, but I would have to go back and see how much time was on the clock (I remember thinking enough time, but not a whole lot)

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    Default Re: Luck vs Griffin - let it begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad-Mad-Mario View Post
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    Griffin had 2 good games against the Cowboys and Eagles. Before that Griffin had 8 TDs in 9 games. The collective football world makes fun of those teams. But then its supposed to be impressive when somebody balls all over them.
    He also wasnt making mistakes many people expected (or wanted him to make in some cases)

    Not to mention he came out strong in New Orleans.

    I would agree with your point, but the whole free word seems to anoint the Eagles and Cowboys the dream team year after year...

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