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Thread: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

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    Default 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    The 2012 Olympics and Team USA are in full swing, but that doesn't mean it isn't time to look forward four years to ponder who might be on the roster for the 2016 games in Rio. That's exactly what Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference.com did for ESPN Insider.

    While doing research, he found some interesting stats and trends.

    "As a general rule of thumb, for every year older that a player is four seasons before the Olympics, he's 8 percent less likely to be on the next Olympic team, even after holding performance equal," he said. "This is because older players are at a much greater risk to decline, or suffer an injury that prevents them from being a world-class player in the future.

    "Another key factor in predicting whether a player will be on the Olympic roster is his minutes per game in the NBA season four years prior. ... Since 1992, the average member of Team USA had logged 36.4 mpg four seasons prior to the Olympics, a number that has grown to 37.5 for veteran members of the current team."

    Not surprisingly, Paine expects studs who will be in their prime to be on the roster, but he projects some interesting players who are "somewhat likely" to make the team: Kawhi Leonard SF (24), Greg Monroe C (25) and Paul George SG (25).

    Savvy fantasy owners already are aware of the upside that Monroe, Leonard and George will have over the next few years. All three could be poised for major stat increases in the NBA this coming season.
    -----------------------------------------------------------

    Aww Yeea, of course we'd all love to see Paul at the top of his game or close to it by this time. If he does in fact step up another level in the coming years it'd be awesome to watch him be a big contributor on an Olympic team. Something the Pacers have never had. Miller was there in 96 but, Barkley and Shaq we're the main guys. Either way I'd love to have a PG olympic jersey. Too bad Chicago lost out on 2016 or I would have made the trip.
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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    actually...it is too soon, considering at least one of the 2016 team is still in high school, and we don't even know if we will still have NBA players on the 2016 team at all.

    Paul George's chances of making it are about %1.

    It's not zero, because he does have some talent, but he's not even an above-average NBA starter right now. He remains a wing that can't dribble, shoot off the dribble, or fight through a solid screen.

    I really do like Paul George. I just think there's a far too much expected of him right now and the next Olympic team as of now is not a realistic goal.
    Last edited by Kstat; 08-04-2012 at 06:08 AM.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    If George made the Olympic team, it'd be in more of a Tayshaun Prince (2008) or Andre Iguodala (2012) role. A 10th man. Not as a starter or anywhere close to it.

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    Lebron, Durant, Melo, and Paul are probably the only locks if we still have NBA players.


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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    My interet in Olympic basketball will seriously wane if we can't have our country's best players represent us.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    actually...it is too soon, considering at least one of the 2016 team is still in high school, and we don't even know if we will still have NBA players on the 2016 team at all.

    Paul George's chances of making it are about %1.

    It's not zero, because he does have some talent, but he's not even an above-average NBA starter right now. He remains a wing that can't dribble, shoot off the dribble, or fight through a solid screen.

    I really do like Paul George. I just think there's a far too much expected of him right now and the next Olympic team as of now is not a realistic goal.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    Too early. In 2008 Anthony Davis was a to-be-sophomore only getting interest from Cleveland State.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    Quote Originally Posted by PaulGeorge View Post
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    Aww Yeea, of course we'd all love to see Paul at the top of his game or close to it by this time. If he does in fact step up another level in the coming years it'd be awesome to watch him be a big contributor on an Olympic team. Something the Pacers have never had. Miller was there in 96 but, Barkley and Shaq we're the main guys. Either way I'd love to have a PG olympic jersey. Too bad Chicago lost out on 2016 or I would have made the trip.
    Reggie was 2nd to Shaq for the leading scorer 94 FIBA World Championships 18 to 17.1. He was the 3rd leading scorer in the 96 Olympic Games, behind Barkley 12.4, Robinson 12, Reggie 11.4. I'd say he was one of the main guys.

    He also set records for 3pt shooting in FIBA and the Olympics. I also remember he was co-team captain for at least one of those teams.
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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    Quote Originally Posted by CJ Jones View Post
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    People love to be such homers around here. Kstat is right.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    Quote Originally Posted by boombaby1987 View Post
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    People love to be such homers around here. Kstat is right.
    Okay then... name me the 15 SGs with a better all around game than our Paul George. Then why you're at it, for the hell of it, name me 15 better SFs.

    If you look at the stats and take into account Paul's defense, there's no way you can argue he's a below average starter in this league.

    As for Rio, it's way, way too early to say Paul basically has no chance to make the team. That along with the ridiculous claim that he's a below average starter is why his post got the 50 cent treatment.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    Quote Originally Posted by CJ Jones View Post
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    Okay then... name me the 15 SGs with a better all around game than our Paul George.
    For last season the primary SG were: Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Marshon Brooks, Gerald Henderson, Ronnie Brewer, Anthony Parker, Vince Carter, Arron Afflalo, Rodney Stuckey, Klay Thompson, Kevin Martin, Randy Foye, Kobe Bryant, Tony Allen, Dwyane Wade, Monta Ellis, Wesley Johnson, Eric Gordon, Landy Fields, James Harden, JJ Reddick, Evan Turner, Jared Dudley, Wesley Matthews, Marcus Thornton, Manu Ginobili, DeMar DeRozan, Raja Bell, Jordan Crawford.

    Let's say Johnson, Ray Allen, Kobe, Wade, Ellis, Gordon, Harden, Matthews, Ginobili, DeRozan are better (I know some of these can be debated about, just making a point). That would put him in the upper half. It's up to him to improve and make sure he gets in the top 5. Let's hope he will!
    Yay, I don't know if we're going back to the play-offs!

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    Thank you pacersgroningen. Anyone else wanna give it a shot? Kstat maybe. Let me guess... you got Stuckey ranked ahead of George?

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    Right now? Absolutely. Stuckey is a lot more diverse offensively, and he's also a plus defender. In the long run? Could be another story, but George has things he needs to work on first. Would I trade stuckey for George? Probably, but on the same token I'd take stuckey for just this season.

    I'll get to a complete list in the morning when I have some time, but I'd be surprised if I couldn't find 15 SGs I'd rather have right now. George has a LOT more to work on than your average starter.
    Last edited by Kstat; 08-05-2012 at 11:38 PM.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    Long time lurker here.

    As somebody who generally agrees with kstat and as somebody who's always liked Stuckey (and is a huge fan of Paul), this interests me. I'm trying to post their basketball-reference comparison, but it's not letting me, for some reason. Probably because I'm a forum noob. Anyway, here are some of their relevant stats for the 11-12 season:

    Paul: Age 21, 16.5 PER, .555 TS, DRtg 100, ORtg 108, 19.3 USG, 14.7pp36min
    Stuck: Age 25, 17.6 PER, .550 TS, DRtg 109, ORtg 112, 24.7 USG, 17.8pp36min

    Pretty close. Stuckey had to take more bad shots to help carry Detroit's offense. Is it fair to say Paul's more likely to take another step at age 22 than Stuckey will at 26? 26 is usually when players are starting to hit their prime. So I don't mind if you take Stuckey for next season, but the margin is very thin, and Paul's way more valuable as an asset long-term. People might take this as bad information for Paul, but it's not, it's showing that Stuck is a solidly positive player and is underappreciated. (And if you compare Paul's 2nd season to Stuckey's 2nd, it's not particularly close)

    By the way, Paul's advanced stats compare pretty nicely to Danny. Danny has the better PER, but it's worth noting that Paul is the better rebounder, assist man, and steals man (obv, Paul was 8th in the NBA in steals per game this year) . Granger might be the better player, but Paul is close to elite at the 2 spot at some aspects of the game.

  18. #15

    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    It's debatable, but I'd take Paul's superior shooting, size, rebounding, defense, and character over Stuckey's superior ball handling and scoring. I like his game though... I think he'd look nice playing along side Paul.

    I can't wait to see you explain how Paul was a below average starter last year after he ranked 2nd in BPG, 2nd in REB per game, 3rd in SPG, top ten in PPS, top ten in PER, top 10 in eFG%... all while recieving votes for being one of the two best defenders at his position. Should be interesting

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    ...because nobody looks at a shooting guard's blocks per game. Great to have, but that isn't how you judge guards.

    I've already noted George is a very good 1-on-1 defender. One of the best in the whole league.

    However, as you saw in the playoffs, you could drive a truck through the holes in his defense in the 2-man game, or trying to keep up with catch-and-shoot players.

    George's efficiency partly comes from the fact he is a #4 option on a deep starting 5, and he's smart enough to know that.

    As a result, he's mainly a finisher and spot-up shooter, both things he's good at. He also has the luxury of not ever having to create his own offense.

    Quick question: Who's the better offensive player: George or Granger?

    So why is George's eFG% so much better than Granger's? Why is his A/TO better? Why are his shooting numbers so much better?

    I'm not sure why I have to point this out in a Pacers forum, of all places: Paul George was the #4 option on his own team last year. His efficiency numbers are going to be better because he never had to do things he couldn't do, like dribble or pass.

    If you made George the #1 option on last year's pacers team, and made Granger the offensive safety valve, his numbers would plummet. I know it, you know it, even Boomer knows it.

    -very good man to man defender, quality finisher and a good spot shooter.
    -awful PnR defender, shaky off-ball defender, non-existant post game, poor mid-range game, can't dribble or create for others.

    I'm calling George an average at best starting shooting guard right now, because I watched him play a lot last year. Maybe he improves this year, but as of now that's what he is.

    The point of my initial post is that George is too early in his development stage to be considering olympic berths when he can't even be a leader on his own team yet.
    Last edited by Kstat; 08-06-2012 at 10:03 AM.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    To go in a different direction, if Mike K calls it quits, I think Doc Rivers should be the new coach.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    ...because nobody looks at a shooting guard's blocks per game. Great to have, but that isn't how you judge guards.

    I've already noted George is a very good 1-on-1 defender. One of the best in the whole league.

    However, as you saw in the playoffs, you could drive a truck through the holes in his defense in the 2-man game, or trying to keep up with catch-and-shoot players.

    George's efficiency partly comes from the fact he is a #4 option on a deep starting 5, and he's smart enough to know that.

    As a result, he's mainly a finisher and spot-up shooter, both things he's good at. He also has the luxury of not ever having to create his own offense.

    Quick question: Who's the better offensive player: George or Granger?

    So why is George's eFG% so much better than Granger's? Why is his A/TO better? Why are his shooting numbers so much better?

    I'm not sure why I have to point this out in a Pacers forum, of all places: Paul George was the #4 option on his own team last year. His efficiency numbers are going to be better because he never had to do things he couldn't do, like dribble or pass.

    If you made George the #1 option on last year's pacers team, and made Granger the offensive safety valve, his numbers would plummet. I know it, you know it, even Boomer knows it.

    -very good man to man defender, quality finisher and a good spot shooter.
    -awful PnR defender, shaky off-ball defender, non-existant post game, poor mid-range game, can't dribble or create for others.

    I'm calling George an average at best starting shooting guard right now, because I watched him play a lot last year. Maybe he improves this year, but as of now that's what he is.

    The point of my initial post is that George is too early in his development stage to be considering olympic berths when he can't even be a leader on his own team yet.
    I agree with everything you said basically (cept I think PG has a good mid-range game, he just never shoots it because of his role within the offense like you said.) I think if PG was our number 3 option (there's normally a big difference in being 3rd and 4th option on the floor) I think his efficiency is still there. I'd like to argue that he's an above average starter at the 2, but reading that list from earlier, he's about 9th-11th-ish. Lol 15 SG's that are better though?! Ouch Kstat, that's just hurtful.

    Edit: it's FAR too early to try and determine who will be on the 2016 team.

    4 years ago:
    Anthony Davis was a 6'3 guard
    K. Love was about to be a rookie who'd average 11 and 9 and Russel Westbrook 15 and 5
    T. Chandler was barely an above AVG starter on NO who just caught oops from CP3, and protected the rim
    KD had yet to play a game in OKC (he was a rookie in SEATTLE)
    Harden was about to be a junior at ASU..

    My long-winded point was: we have NO idea who will break out within the next 4 years.
    Last edited by Ace E.Anderson; 08-06-2012 at 10:28 AM.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    Quote Originally Posted by pacersgroningen View Post
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    Let's say Johnson, Ray Allen, Kobe, Wade, Ellis, Gordon, Harden, Matthews, Ginobili, DeRozan are better (I know some of these can be debated about, just making a point). That would put him in the upper half. It's up to him to improve and make sure he gets in the top 5. Let's hope he will!
    DeRozan is useless.

    that said, my list would be bigger.

  25. #20

    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    QUOTE=Kstat;1491033]...because nobody looks at a shooting guard's blocks per game. Great to have, but that isn't how you judge guards.

    I've already noted George is a very good man defender.

    However, as you saw in the playoffs, you could drive a truck through the holes in his defense in the 2-man game, or trying to keep up with catch-and-shoot players.

    George's efficiency partly comes from the fact he is a #4 option on a deep starting 5, and he's smart enough to know that.

    As a result, he's mainly a finisher and spot-up shooter, both things he's good at. He also has the luxury of not ever having to create his own offense.

    Quick question: Who's the better offensive player: George or Granger?

    So why is George's eFG% so much better than Granger's? Why is his A/TO better? Why are his shooting numbers so much better?
    So you're saying because he plays guard we're supposed to dismiss his shot blocking? What about rebounding and steals? Do they impact the game?

    And how does Paul benefit from having a low usage rate? It's not like we have players on our team drawing double teams or creating wide open looks for Paul. I'd argue having less reps makes it harder for him to get into a rhythm offensively. If he had more responsibility he might faster learn how to draw fouls and get to the line more often which would only boost his efficiency ratings.

    Danny never would have been this Danny had he not been forced to be the man beginning his 3rd year. The extra work load didn't lower his efficiency. Why exactly are we supposed to assume Paul's would?

    I'm calling George an average at best starting shooting guard right now, because I watched him play a lot last year. Maybe he improves this year, but as of now that's what he is.
    I'm still waiting for that list...

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    Rebound King Kstat's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    i didn't want to to this, but ah **** it.

    No-brainers:

    Kobe
    Wade
    Joe Johnson
    Harden
    Terry
    Ray Allen
    Ellis
    Manu
    Evans

    debatable but I'd take them over George right now:

    Stuckey
    Afflalo
    Derozen
    EJ

    Ok, so objectively, George would be #14 on my list, just ahead of Tony Allen. I'd still take him over KMart, Mayo, both Crawfords, Matthews, Klay Thompson and Landry Fields.
    Last edited by Kstat; 08-06-2012 at 10:32 AM.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    [QUOTE]
    Quote Originally Posted by ballism View Post
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    DeRozan is useless.
    I have Paul ahead of him too.

    that said, my list would be bigger.
    Fair enough... but can you get to a comfortable 15 is the question.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    i didn't want to to this, but ah **** it.

    No-brainers:

    Kobe
    Wade
    Joe Johnson
    Harden
    Terry
    Allen
    Ellis
    Manu
    Evans

    debatable but I'd take them over George right now:

    Stuckey
    Afflalo
    Derozen
    EJ

    Ok, so objectively, George would be #15 on my list. I'd still take him over KMart, Mayo, both Crawfords, Klay THompson and Landry Fields.
    I stand corrected.

    I'd actually place Afflalo in that list of no-brainers. They essentially do the same things, but Afflalo is far more consistent, just less athletic. I know I'm in the minority but I think George is better than the Jet (he offers nothing defensively, and if his J isn't falling, he provides nothing else) PG is better than Derozan. It's debatable with Stucky, but I'd give Stucky an edge right now. So that makes PG 11th-ish. --least in my book.

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    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    It's hard for me to forget what Jason Terry did in the last few games of last year's finals. Even if he's pretty 1-dimensional, what separates him from other guys like crawford or Mayo is that he makes them when it really counts. I have to respect that.

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  32. #25

    Default Re: 2016 Rio Olympic team forecast

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    i didn't want to to this, but ah **** it.

    No-brainers:

    Kobe
    Wade
    Joe Johnson
    Harden
    Terry
    Ray Allen
    Ellis
    Manu
    Evans

    debatable but I'd take them over George right now:

    Stuckey
    Afflalo
    Derozen
    EJ

    Ok, so objectively, George would be #14 on my list, just ahead of Tony Allen. I'd still take him over KMart, Mayo, both Crawfords, Matthews, Klay Thompson and Landry Fields.
    Very debatable list you got there. Including your no brainers. I can see you value offense quite a bit more then defense. To each his own I guess...at least you backed off saying he was below average.

    I like your list for the most part, but I'd take Derozen out and add in Marcus Thornton.

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