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Thread: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

  1. #126
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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by cgg View Post
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    Plus it's backed up by...watching the tape. Watch it again without the emotion of it being live and look for specific things. Pause and rewind and rewatch in slow motion.
    Yes, I 100% agree with this too and liked that this was what you were bringing to the debate. I know I just posted the whole "but my eyes", but that's meant when there is a clear contradiction between what you feel is true and what the numbers starkly say was true.

    Usually if you go back, emotions gone, and especially if you were to do a visual +/- accounting where you go through the game and document just what plays caused a player's +/- you start to see where you put big emotional emphasis on one dramatic or energetic play and overlooked a bunch of barely noticeable but critical defensive switch problems, failure to deny rebounds, weak screens and other items that slowly eat away at the score.


    My anger is that people see a Tyler rebound hustle after his own miss and give it more credit than 2 travels in the next 4 possessions, even though getting your own miss is empty and the 2 travels are brutal. If you are a Tyler fan then you point to the hustle and say "see, that's why he's great" and you point to the travels and say "oh, the refs robbed him, they are against him, that wasn't Tyler's fault".

    Well that crap still counts in terms of winning and losing. Okay, the refs are against him. So what, the results are the same in the end. If you have a guy that the refs intentionally target then that's identical to him just being bad. Either way it's a TO. You need to get the refs to like him if you want a better outcome, and if that's not possible then you just can't play him. It's unfair but it's the reality. And this is only if you buy the whole "it's not his fault, they are totally against him" theory, which I don't really buy for any players.




    SIDEBAR ON STAR CALLS
    BTW, "star" treatment does happen, but a lot less than fans think. Usually fouls, travels, etc are plays that stem from one guy being clearly better than the other. The quicker guy beats his man and his man struggles to catch up, reaches out and fouls by accident. That's not star treatment, that's star power.

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by cgg View Post
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    Sarcasm aside, Cole is really bad. Worse than I even thought before I started paying attention. I don't think our team even grasped how bad his defense is until Collison suddenly realized it one game and started to destroy him.
    I was shocked at how dramatic the Miami +/- numbers looked. I had some idea, but I guess I thought some other guys were helping a little during the season. The reality looked more like Lebron, Wade, a little bit of Bosh and then the YMCA rec league.

    That's what makes the subject of this thread so frustrating. Their bench should have been a disaster that cost Lebron/Wade leads, but they couldn't make plays.


    I know the Pacers lost to them, but I still prefer the PRODUCT the Pacers present on the court. A more balanced teamwork based approach is far more aesthetically pleasing basketball to me.

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  4. #128
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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    My anger is that people see a Tyler rebound hustle after his own miss and give it more credit than 2 travels in the next 4 possessions, even though getting your own miss is empty and the 2 travels are brutal. If you are a Tyler fan then you point to the hustle and say "see, that's why he's great" and you point to the travels and say "oh, the refs robbed him, they are against him, that wasn't Tyler's fault".

    Well that crap still counts in terms of winning and losing. Okay, the refs are against him. So what, the results are the same in the end. If you have a guy that the refs intentionally target then that's identical to him just being bad. Either way it's a TO. You need to get the refs to like him if you want a better outcome, and if that's not possible then you just can't play him. It's unfair but it's the reality. And this is only if you buy the whole "it's not his fault, they are totally against him" theory, which I don't really buy for any players.
    I watched those travels in slow motion several times. The calls were correct.

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    I know the Pacers lost to them, but I still prefer the PRODUCT the Pacers present on the court. A more balanced teamwork based approach is far more aesthetically pleasing basketball to me.
    It will only get better with continuity, training camp, practice time, more tape for Vogel to break down to use for adjustments, and roster adjustments to the role players.

    We might never get past Miami, but I think to act like we have no chance is wrong.

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by cgg View Post
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    Yes. They did actually. I spent an entire replay of games watching only Tyler.
    Got it, it was all Tyler's fault, it was Tyler's fault that Battie shut Dwest down, it was Tyler's fault that Lebron abused Danny, it was also Tyler's fault that Roy could not defend the pick and roll, DAMN YOU TYLER!!!!

    Note: Replace Tyler with Seth's man crush in Blair and we still get the same result, hell replace Tyler with Mcoverrated and you still get the same result.

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Got it, it was all Tyler's fault, it was Tyler's fault that Battie shut Dwest down, it was Tyler's fault that Lebron abused Danny, it was also Tyler's fault that Roy could not defend the pick and roll, DAMN YOU TYLER!!!!

    Note: Replace Tyler with Seth's man crush in Blair and we still get the same result, hell replace Tyler with Mcoverrated and you still get the same result.
    Well they might have not have made the mistakes that Tyler did, but I don't think they would have been the ideal replacements in the series.

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
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    How is it a myth? Watch the games. Look at the stats. The starters got us leads, more often than not. The bench would fritter it away, more often than not. The weak point of every loss was late 1st / early 2nd and late 3rd/ early 4th where the bench could not keep up.

    Hopefully Frank learned that with longer TV timeouts, longer halftime, never any playoff back-to-backs, it is folly to play a 10 man rotation because those 9th and 10th men will kill you.

    One advantage to re-making our bench is positional versatility of Green (SG/SF) and Mahinmi (PF/C). If they play well maybe we can just go 8 deep, with Augustin . With an injury, Lance could be versatile too (PG/SG).
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
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  9. #133
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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
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    I don't want a 5,6,7-man deep bench to try compete with super stars for 15 minutes a game. In the playoffs I want 5 guys playing 36-40 minutes and 3 very versatile and nearly equally talented guys playing 16-20 minutes, such that they can together beat the other team, however they divide up their minutes.


    (When 'thanks' just isn't enough.)
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


  10. #134
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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    No bench in the NBA is going to stop Lebron or Dwade tired or not, that's the point , with this new CBA is even harder to have a good bench, just look at what the Pacers did this offseason, having a deep bench that can compete with super stars for 15 minutes a game is a dream, specially when those super stars are Lebron and Dwade.
    You missed my point. I'm not saying the bench is going to stop LeBron or DWade, just keep the damage to a minimum while they are in and, essentially, force Miami to play their starters all the time rather than allowing them to rest. The bench has to be used CORRECTLY (meaning it can't be just a hockey line substitution), the starters have to be used correctly (force the Big 3 to work hard on defense when they are in), a lot of things have to fall into place, but it all starts with a competent bench. Our starters may have flaws but I think they are good enough to do the job given the best possible support.

    The strength of Miami is those three guys and the minutes they play, but it is also a potential weakness if you can wear them out in a 7-game series.

    Thinking that the only way we can win is to get starters who are the equivalent of LeBron/Bosh/Wade is tantamount to giving up because you simply aren't going to have the opportunity to put that kind of team together 99 times out of 100.
    BillS

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    My anger is that people see a Foster rebound hustle after his own miss and give it more credit than 4 more missed put-backs in the next 2 possessions, even though getting your own miss is empty and the 4 offensive rebounds are brutal. If you are a Foster fan then you point to the hustle and say "see, that's why he's great" ...
    Just wanted to see if it worked. It does. Move along, not really trying to cause a tangent.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


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    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Of course the response will be "the score is a misleading stat"...because the +/- stat is THE SCORE, not some combination of 3 times the rebounds per 36 + 2.5 times the assists per 20 - 5 times TOs divided by points minus FG missed.

    You are on the floor, your team goes up 5, you are off the floor, your team goes down 10. I don't give a F if it was blind luck or you're a wizard who can mentally makes the other team miss shots, whatever you were doing WAS NOT LOSING THE GAME. It's math, and the most basic, simple math there is.

    I realize that a combo of factors goes into +/-, but as I've yelled about for years THIS IS TRUE FOR ALL STATS. Lebron's PPG has everything to do with whether Wade, Bosh, Mike Miller or whomever is on the court, who's defending him, what type of plays they are running and what type of defense the other team is running.

    People act like +/- is the only stat that's impacted by who the other 9 guys on the court are. Those people are dumb as a post, period.

    I'm tired of cutting slack on this issue. Get a grip on what stats mean. They all have caveats, they ALL are affected by a lot more than just the individual attributed to them, and over the long haul they all tend to show repeatable trends. Few guys go from 40% FG for 5 years to suddenly hitting 55% FG. This is why we look at them and this is why +/- is just as valuable as assists (a subjectively recorded stat btw) or rebounds (a subjectively recorded stat also).


    Sheesh. I love the whole "math and science are evil, black magic trickery" angle people take when presented with facts. Any given +/- certainly can be misleading....just like every other f-bombing thing in the box score, advanced or otherwise.

    Someone posts the +/- and it kicks off discussion of how those numbers came to be and what other factors might have been in play. People show other stats to expand or debate the point. That's normal, healthy and interesting.

    And then someone goes "+/- is a BS stat". The score. They call the score a BS stat. Think about that.
    It's not BS. It's subjective. The +/- doesn't take into account who was playing *against* them. You can't sit there and seriously tell me that the almight +/- is the end-all Mother of all stats with a straight face.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    You missed my point. I'm not saying the bench is going to stop LeBron or DWade, just keep the damage to a minimum while they are in and, essentially, force Miami to play their starters all the time rather than allowing them to rest. The bench has to be used CORRECTLY (meaning it can't be just a hockey line substitution), the starters have to be used correctly (force the Big 3 to work hard on defense when they are in), a lot of things have to fall into place, but it all starts with a competent bench. Our starters may have flaws but I think they are good enough to do the job given the best possible support.

    The strength of Miami is those three guys and the minutes they play, but it is also a potential weakness if you can wear them out in a 7-game series.I

    Thinking that the only way we can win is to get starters who are the equivalent of LeBron/Bosh/Wade is tantamount to giving up because you simply aren't going to have the opportunity to put that kind of team together 99 times out of 100.



    And nobody is saying that...

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
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    It's not BS. It's subjective. The +/- doesn't take into account who was playing *against* them. You can't sit there and seriously tell me that the almight +/- is the end-all Mother of all stats with a straight face.
    Oh yes he can, just watch.

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
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    It's not BS. It's subjective. The +/- doesn't take into account who was playing *against* them. You can't sit there and seriously tell me that the almight +/- is the end-all Mother of all stats with a straight face.
    We all watched the games and know who they played against. It's not like our starters were out there beating up the heat bench.

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    [/B]

    And nobody is saying that...
    Then, seriously, how does improving our starters to a point where they STILL aren't as good as LeBron/Bosh/Wade and playing them the same minutes help us beat Miami? Don't we still need a different strategy rather than trying to go head-to-head?
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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Then, seriously, how does improving our starters to a point where they STILL aren't as good as LeBron/Bosh/Wade and playing them the same minutes help us beat Miami? Don't we still need a different strategy rather than trying to go head-to-head?
    I don't think our starters are as good as people think, I think we can improve them enough to beat Miami or any other team, they don't have to be as good as Lebron/Dwade/Bosh, nobody can do that, but they at least have to be better than Danny/West and better than our starting point guard, I think we can be younger and more athletic, the Pacers had a huge opportunity to do it this off season but decided to fill the team with more bench players and used their cap space to do so.

    I guess that as long as you have a guy that can't play D and rebound as a big in West, a guy that likes to jackup shots and play D when he wants to in Danny, a guy that can't see the floor and can't feed the post in Hill and a guy that get's pushed around by smaller players in Hibbert I don't see us getting pass Miami anytime soon, it doesn't matter if you have the deepest bench in the league, at the end of the day your starters are the ones that have to close the game and guard their starters and as we saw in the Miami series our starters were not able to close the games.

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
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    It's not BS. It's subjective. The +/- doesn't take into account who was playing *against* them. You can't sit there and seriously tell me that the almight +/- is the end-all Mother of all stats with a straight face.
    With a large enough sample size, and a consistent 5 man unit it is among the most useful stats, yes. Certainly more valid than some eye test that doesn't "think they are as good as people think". Our starters actually played fewer minutes than many starting lineups, and typically played against other teams starters, yes it was one of the most dominate units in the NBA last season. It's undeniable. It is anything but a BS stat when it is used correctly.

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I don't think our starters are as good as people think, I think we can improve them enough to beat Miami or any other team, they don't have to be as good as Lebron/Dwade/Bosh, nobody can do that, but they at least have to be better than Danny/West and better than our starting point guard, I think we can be younger and more athletic, the Pacers had a huge opportunity to do it this off season but decided to fill the team with more bench players and used their cap space to do so.

    I guess that as long as you have a guy that can't play D and rebound as a big in West, a guy that likes to jackup shots and play D when he wants to in Danny, a guy that can't see the floor and can't feed the post in Hill and a guy that get's pushed around by smaller players in Hibbert I don't see us getting pass Miami anytime soon, it doesn't matter if you have the deepest bench in the league, at the end of the day your starters are the ones that have to close the game and guard their starters and as we saw in the Miami series our starters were not able to close the games.
    Fair enough. I don't agree with most of this, but your position makes sense given your opinions of the starters.
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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I don't think our starters are as good as people think, I think we can improve them enough to beat Miami or any other team, they don't have to be as good as Lebron/Dwade/Bosh, nobody can do that, but they at least have to be better than Danny/West and better than our starting point guard, I think we can be younger and more athletic, the Pacers had a huge opportunity to do it this off season but decided to fill the team with more bench players and used their cap space to do so.

    I guess that as long as you have a guy that can't play D and rebound as a big in West, a guy that likes to jackup shots and play D when he wants to in Danny, a guy that can't see the floor and can't feed the post in Hill and a guy that get's pushed around by smaller players in Hibbert I don't see us getting pass Miami anytime soon, it doesn't matter if you have the deepest bench in the league, at the end of the day your starters are the ones that have to close the game and guard their starters and as we saw in the Miami series our starters were not able to close the games.
    It's a wonder we were even in the playoffs, huh? With starters having flaws as huge as you've pointed out(and certainly your critiques weren't hyperbole) it's a miracle we weren't bobcats bad.

    Seriously, the argument you are making is tantamount to saying "the ref blowing that call cost us the game." one minute(or one call) does not win or lose you a basketball game. It's 48 minutes long for a reason.

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I don't think our starters are as good as people think, I think we can improve them enough to beat Miami or any other team, they don't have to be as good as Lebron/Dwade/Bosh, nobody can do that, but they at least have to be better than Danny/West and better than our starting point guard, I think we can be younger and more athletic, the Pacers had a huge opportunity to do it this off season but decided to fill the team with more bench players and used their cap space to do so.

    I guess that as long as you have a guy that can't play D and rebound as a big in West, a guy that likes to jackup shots and play D when he wants to in Danny, a guy that can't see the floor and can't feed the post in Hill and a guy that get's pushed around by smaller players in Hibbert I don't see us getting pass Miami anytime soon, it doesn't matter if you have the deepest bench in the league, at the end of the day your starters are the ones that have to close the game and guard their starters and as we saw in the Miami series our starters were not able to close the games.
    I agree with your assessment of the flaws of Danny/West/Hill.

    The problem is that acquiring better players would be very, very difficult. Those three players also have a number of strengths.

    I think Granger would have the best shot of getting us a player that helps us more, but I don't know.
    .

    .

    .

    .


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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Well, we all would have preferred to move either Granger or Paul George for a healthy but inexpensive version of Eric Gordon that wants to be with the Pacers. Maybe that mythical player will ride in on their unicorn next summer?
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    I agree with your assessment of the flaws of Danny/West/Hill.

    The problem is that acquiring better players would be very, very difficult. Those three players also have a number of strengths.

    I think Granger would have the best shot of getting us a player that helps us more, but I don't know.

    Granger's contract is toxic. I don't think anyone would be interested in him at all.... We have waited too long to move Granger and it might not be possible now......

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by LoneGranger33 View Post
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    Who was propagating that myth? Perhaps I've forgotten, but I don't think anyone said anything like that all year. Maybe it was IndyStrawMan?
    Many people, there were even some people that said they would rather take DC over Westbrook or DC over Rondo, some people even tried to tell me that DC could be like Nash because their numbers are similar at 23 years of age.

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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by daschysta View Post
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    With a large enough sample size, and a consistent 5 man unit it is among the most useful stats, yes. Certainly more valid than some eye test that doesn't "think they are as good as people think". Our starters actually played fewer minutes than many starting lineups, and typically played against other teams starters, yes it was one of the most dominate units in the NBA last season. It's undeniable. It is anything but a BS stat when it is used correctly.
    You're preaching to someone who likes the +/-, bro. It's a great quickie stat that paints a "kinda-sorta" overall picture. But you also have to realize that it's not the complete picture... as with all stats, you take what you can from it, but don't take everything from it. The +/- figures thrown around in this thread do not paint a complete picture. It does not give context whatsoever. All it tells you is that certain players did this when on the court, but doesn't say why. It doesn't say who they were on the court with, doesn't say who was their individual opponent, doesn't say who was their team opponents -- it just says that when they were on the court, this happened. Well..... LeBron James vs Dante Jones will have a much different outcome than James Jones vs Dahntay Jones. That isn't specified in the +/-.

    And that's what most of you are hanging your hat on when you say our bench needed upgraded. Our bench was a typical bench. Against Miami's bench, they likely would've fared well, but we didn't get to see that matchup very often, because Miami's bench often included LeBron James and/or Dwyane Wade. Miami doesn't use much of a bench. They use their starters. 3 of them were arguably pretty non-impactual in this series, and they still won.

    Our bench needed some improvement, which we did... but this team *needed* an offensive facilitator injected into the equation to become a serious contender.... we had some chips.... we had the positioning, we had some impact guys who expressed interest in Indy --- and we landed none of them. We landed backups.

    What we have now to lean on is the hope that our chemistry really gels now with a year under our belt.... or that possibly PG's growth curve continues or exceeds it's current path and he pushes our starting unit to a new level.... or maybe Augustin comes in and surprises us. Who knows... or Lance takes 3 evolutionary steps forwards and becomes that --- dunno. It's all we can really hope for now.... We'll be a really, really good team this year, we'll put the hurt on most of the East this year, but come playoff time, we're built to likely have a similar outcome, because that offense becomes *stagnant* when the defensive heat is applied. And when our offense starts to stagnate, they almost always lose their defensive focus, also... and it just snowballs.
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 07-18-2012 at 10:36 PM.
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    Default Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    You're preaching to someone who likes the +/-, bro. It's a great quickie stat that paints a "kinda-sorta" overall picture. But you also have to realize that it's not the complete picture... as with all stats, you take what you can from it, but don't take everything from it. The +/- figures thrown around in this thread do not paint a complete picture. It does not give context whatsoever. All it tells you is that certain players did this when on the court, but doesn't say why. It doesn't say who they were on the court with, doesn't say who was their individual opponent, doesn't say who was their team opponents -- it just says that when they were on the court, this happened. Well..... LeBron James vs Dante Jones will have a much different outcome than James Jones vs Dahntay Jones. That isn't specified in the +/-.

    And that's what most of you are hanging your hat on when you say our bench needed upgraded. Our bench was a typical bench. Against Miami's bench, they likely would've fared well, but we didn't get to see that matchup very often, because Miami's bench often included LeBron James and/or Dwyane Wade. Miami doesn't use much of a bench. They use their starters. 3 of them were arguably pretty non-impactual in this series, and they still won.

    Our bench needed some improvement, which we did... but this team *needed* an offensive facilitator injected into the equation to become a serious contender.... we had some chips.... we had the positioning, we had some impact guys who expressed interest in Indy --- and we landed none of them. We landed backups.

    What we have now to lean on is the hope that our chemistry really gels now with a year under our belt.... or that possibly PG's growth curve continues or exceeds it's current path and he pushes our starting unit to a new level.... or maybe Augustin comes in and surprises us. Who knows... or Lance takes 3 evolutionary steps forwards and becomes that --- dunno. It's all we can really hope for now.... We'll be a really, really good team this year, we'll put the hurt on most of the East this year, but come playoff time, we're built to likely have a similar outcome, because that offense becomes *stagnant* when the defensive heat is applied. And when our offense starts to stagnate, they almost always lose their defensive focus, also... and it just snowballs.


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