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Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

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  • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

    Originally posted by mildlysane View Post
    I think what lost the series for us was our interior defense and our PnR defense, regardless of who was on the floor. If we improve upon that, we have a chance to beat anyone. We need more/better coaching to accomplish that.
    Mahinmi has better PnR defense numbers than any of our other players, so there's some hope there. Not a huge sample size, but he seemed quick with the trap and then recovering back to his man.
    "Danny Granger is one of the top players in the league. To move Danny, you better get a lot back." - Larry Bird

    Comment


    • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

      Originally posted by Since86 View Post
      Bench players had a -40 for the entire series, while starters have a positive +/- and you're telling us that it wasn't the bench, but rather the starters.

      Like you said, keep repeating it enough and you might just start convincing some people.
      Of course the response will be "the score is a misleading stat"...because the +/- stat is THE SCORE, not some combination of 3 times the rebounds per 36 + 2.5 times the assists per 20 - 5 times TOs divided by points minus FG missed.

      You are on the floor, your team goes up 5, you are off the floor, your team goes down 10. I don't give a F if it was blind luck or you're a wizard who can mentally makes the other team miss shots, whatever you were doing WAS NOT LOSING THE GAME. It's math, and the most basic, simple math there is.

      I realize that a combo of factors goes into +/-, but as I've yelled about for years THIS IS TRUE FOR ALL STATS. Lebron's PPG has everything to do with whether Wade, Bosh, Mike Miller or whomever is on the court, who's defending him, what type of plays they are running and what type of defense the other team is running.

      People act like +/- is the only stat that's impacted by who the other 9 guys on the court are. Those people are dumb as a post, period.

      I'm tired of cutting slack on this issue. Get a grip on what stats mean. They all have caveats, they ALL are affected by a lot more than just the individual attributed to them, and over the long haul they all tend to show repeatable trends. Few guys go from 40% FG for 5 years to suddenly hitting 55% FG. This is why we look at them and this is why +/- is just as valuable as assists (a subjectively recorded stat btw) or rebounds (a subjectively recorded stat also).


      Sheesh. I love the whole "math and science are evil, black magic trickery" angle people take when presented with facts. Any given +/- certainly can be misleading....just like every other f-bombing thing in the box score, advanced or otherwise.

      Someone posts the +/- and it kicks off discussion of how those numbers came to be and what other factors might have been in play. People show other stats to expand or debate the point. That's normal, healthy and interesting.

      And then someone goes "+/- is a BS stat". The score. They call the score a BS stat. Think about that.
      Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 07-18-2012, 11:58 AM.

      Comment


      • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

        Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
        Of course the response will be "the score is a misleading stat"...because the +/- stat is THE SCORE, not some combination of 3 times the rebounds per 36 + 2.5 times the assists per 20 - 5 times TOs divided by points minus FG missed.

        You are on the floor, your team goes up 5, you are off the floor, your team goes down 10. I don't give a F if it was blind luck or you're a wizard who can mentally makes the other team miss shots, whatever you were doing WAS NOT LOSING THE GAME. It's math, and the most basic, simple math there is.

        I realize that a combo of factors goes into +/-, but as I've yelled about for years THIS IS TRUE FOR ALL STATS. Lebron's PPG has everything to do with whether Wade, Bosh, Mike Miller or whomever is on the court, who's defending him, what type of plays they are running and what type of defense the other team is running.

        People act like +/- is the only stat that's impacted by who the other 9 guys on the court are. Those people are dumb as a post, period.

        I'm tired of cutting slack on this issue. Get a grip on what stats mean. They all have caveats, they ALL are affected by a lot more than just the individual attributed to them, and over the long haul they all tend to show repeatable trends. Few guys go from 40% FG for 5 years to suddenly hitting 55% FG. This is why we look at them and this is why +/- is just as valuable as assists (a subjectively recorded stat btw) or rebounds (a subjectively recorded stat also).


        Sheesh. I love the whole "math and science are evil, black magic trickery" angle people take when presented with facts. Any given +/- certainly can be misleading....just like every other f-bombing thing in the box score, advanced or otherwise.

        Someone posts the +/- and it kicks off discussion of how those numbers came to be and what other factors might have been in play. People show other stats to expand or debate the point. That's normal, healthy and interesting.

        And then someone goes "+/- is a BS stat". The score. They call the score a BS stat. Think about that.
        Plus it's backed up by...watching the tape. Watch it again without the emotion of it being live and look for specific things. Pause and rewind and rewatch in slow motion.
        "Danny Granger is one of the top players in the league. To move Danny, you better get a lot back." - Larry Bird

        Comment


        • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

          Miami ended the year with the top 3 +/- guys being
          James
          Wade
          Bosh
          And they were the ONLY HEAT in the net positive (production - 82games.com).

          and guys at the bottom like
          Pittman
          Harris
          Cole
          Howard
          Curry

          Sure sign this stat is crap. I mean what can I really say looking at this? Do I really think Lebron is better than Cole? Come on, this is so misleading. I've seen Cole play and my eyes say that he's worlds better than Lebron, and how could my eyes tell me something that a +/- stat says isn't true?

          When in doubt, I always go with my gut feeling about the truthiness, not with a truth built on the lies of facts/stats. Cole was robbed for MVP.

          Comment


          • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

            Sarcasm aside, Cole is really bad. Worse than I even thought before I started paying attention. I don't think our team even grasped how bad his defense is until Collison suddenly realized it one game and started to destroy him.
            "Danny Granger is one of the top players in the league. To move Danny, you better get a lot back." - Larry Bird

            Comment


            • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

              Originally posted by cgg View Post
              Plus it's backed up by...watching the tape. Watch it again without the emotion of it being live and look for specific things. Pause and rewind and rewatch in slow motion.
              Yes, I 100% agree with this too and liked that this was what you were bringing to the debate. I know I just posted the whole "but my eyes", but that's meant when there is a clear contradiction between what you feel is true and what the numbers starkly say was true.

              Usually if you go back, emotions gone, and especially if you were to do a visual +/- accounting where you go through the game and document just what plays caused a player's +/- you start to see where you put big emotional emphasis on one dramatic or energetic play and overlooked a bunch of barely noticeable but critical defensive switch problems, failure to deny rebounds, weak screens and other items that slowly eat away at the score.


              My anger is that people see a Tyler rebound hustle after his own miss and give it more credit than 2 travels in the next 4 possessions, even though getting your own miss is empty and the 2 travels are brutal. If you are a Tyler fan then you point to the hustle and say "see, that's why he's great" and you point to the travels and say "oh, the refs robbed him, they are against him, that wasn't Tyler's fault".

              Well that crap still counts in terms of winning and losing. Okay, the refs are against him. So what, the results are the same in the end. If you have a guy that the refs intentionally target then that's identical to him just being bad. Either way it's a TO. You need to get the refs to like him if you want a better outcome, and if that's not possible then you just can't play him. It's unfair but it's the reality. And this is only if you buy the whole "it's not his fault, they are totally against him" theory, which I don't really buy for any players.




              SIDEBAR ON STAR CALLS
              BTW, "star" treatment does happen, but a lot less than fans think. Usually fouls, travels, etc are plays that stem from one guy being clearly better than the other. The quicker guy beats his man and his man struggles to catch up, reaches out and fouls by accident. That's not star treatment, that's star power.

              Comment


              • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

                Originally posted by cgg View Post
                Sarcasm aside, Cole is really bad. Worse than I even thought before I started paying attention. I don't think our team even grasped how bad his defense is until Collison suddenly realized it one game and started to destroy him.
                I was shocked at how dramatic the Miami +/- numbers looked. I had some idea, but I guess I thought some other guys were helping a little during the season. The reality looked more like Lebron, Wade, a little bit of Bosh and then the YMCA rec league.

                That's what makes the subject of this thread so frustrating. Their bench should have been a disaster that cost Lebron/Wade leads, but they couldn't make plays.


                I know the Pacers lost to them, but I still prefer the PRODUCT the Pacers present on the court. A more balanced teamwork based approach is far more aesthetically pleasing basketball to me.

                Comment


                • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

                  Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
                  My anger is that people see a Tyler rebound hustle after his own miss and give it more credit than 2 travels in the next 4 possessions, even though getting your own miss is empty and the 2 travels are brutal. If you are a Tyler fan then you point to the hustle and say "see, that's why he's great" and you point to the travels and say "oh, the refs robbed him, they are against him, that wasn't Tyler's fault".

                  Well that crap still counts in terms of winning and losing. Okay, the refs are against him. So what, the results are the same in the end. If you have a guy that the refs intentionally target then that's identical to him just being bad. Either way it's a TO. You need to get the refs to like him if you want a better outcome, and if that's not possible then you just can't play him. It's unfair but it's the reality. And this is only if you buy the whole "it's not his fault, they are totally against him" theory, which I don't really buy for any players.
                  I watched those travels in slow motion several times. The calls were correct.
                  "Danny Granger is one of the top players in the league. To move Danny, you better get a lot back." - Larry Bird

                  Comment


                  • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

                    Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
                    I know the Pacers lost to them, but I still prefer the PRODUCT the Pacers present on the court. A more balanced teamwork based approach is far more aesthetically pleasing basketball to me.
                    It will only get better with continuity, training camp, practice time, more tape for Vogel to break down to use for adjustments, and roster adjustments to the role players.

                    We might never get past Miami, but I think to act like we have no chance is wrong.
                    "Danny Granger is one of the top players in the league. To move Danny, you better get a lot back." - Larry Bird

                    Comment


                    • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

                      Originally posted by cgg View Post
                      Yes. They did actually. I spent an entire replay of games watching only Tyler.
                      Got it, it was all Tyler's fault, it was Tyler's fault that Battie shut Dwest down, it was Tyler's fault that Lebron abused Danny, it was also Tyler's fault that Roy could not defend the pick and roll, DAMN YOU TYLER!!!!

                      Note: Replace Tyler with Seth's man crush in Blair and we still get the same result, hell replace Tyler with Mcoverrated and you still get the same result.
                      @WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!

                      Comment


                      • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

                        Originally posted by vnzla81 View Post
                        Got it, it was all Tyler's fault, it was Tyler's fault that Battie shut Dwest down, it was Tyler's fault that Lebron abused Danny, it was also Tyler's fault that Roy could not defend the pick and roll, DAMN YOU TYLER!!!!

                        Note: Replace Tyler with Seth's man crush in Blair and we still get the same result, hell replace Tyler with Mcoverrated and you still get the same result.
                        Well they might have not have made the mistakes that Tyler did, but I don't think they would have been the ideal replacements in the series.
                        "Danny Granger is one of the top players in the league. To move Danny, you better get a lot back." - Larry Bird

                        Comment


                        • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

                          Originally posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
                          How is it a myth? Watch the games. Look at the stats. The starters got us leads, more often than not. The bench would fritter it away, more often than not. The weak point of every loss was late 1st / early 2nd and late 3rd/ early 4th where the bench could not keep up.

                          Hopefully Frank learned that with longer TV timeouts, longer halftime, never any playoff back-to-backs, it is folly to play a 10 man rotation because those 9th and 10th men will kill you.

                          One advantage to re-making our bench is positional versatility of Green (SG/SF) and Mahinmi (PF/C). If they play well maybe we can just go 8 deep, with Augustin . With an injury, Lance could be versatile too (PG/SG).
                          Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
                          Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
                          Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
                          Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
                          And life itself, rushing over me
                          Life itself, the wind in black elms,
                          Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

                          Comment


                          • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

                            Originally posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
                            I don't want a 5,6,7-man deep bench to try compete with super stars for 15 minutes a game. In the playoffs I want 5 guys playing 36-40 minutes and 3 very versatile and nearly equally talented guys playing 16-20 minutes, such that they can together beat the other team, however they divide up their minutes.


                            (When 'thanks' just isn't enough.)
                            Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
                            Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
                            Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
                            Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
                            And life itself, rushing over me
                            Life itself, the wind in black elms,
                            Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

                            Comment


                            • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

                              Originally posted by vnzla81 View Post
                              No bench in the NBA is going to stop Lebron or Dwade tired or not, that's the point , with this new CBA is even harder to have a good bench, just look at what the Pacers did this offseason, having a deep bench that can compete with super stars for 15 minutes a game is a dream, specially when those super stars are Lebron and Dwade.
                              You missed my point. I'm not saying the bench is going to stop LeBron or DWade, just keep the damage to a minimum while they are in and, essentially, force Miami to play their starters all the time rather than allowing them to rest. The bench has to be used CORRECTLY (meaning it can't be just a hockey line substitution), the starters have to be used correctly (force the Big 3 to work hard on defense when they are in), a lot of things have to fall into place, but it all starts with a competent bench. Our starters may have flaws but I think they are good enough to do the job given the best possible support.

                              The strength of Miami is those three guys and the minutes they play, but it is also a potential weakness if you can wear them out in a 7-game series.

                              Thinking that the only way we can win is to get starters who are the equivalent of LeBron/Bosh/Wade is tantamount to giving up because you simply aren't going to have the opportunity to put that kind of team together 99 times out of 100.
                              BillS

                              A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
                              Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

                              Comment


                              • Re: Have you seen the plus-minus from the Miami series?

                                Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
                                My anger is that people see a Foster rebound hustle after his own miss and give it more credit than 4 more missed put-backs in the next 2 possessions, even though getting your own miss is empty and the 4 offensive rebounds are brutal. If you are a Foster fan then you point to the hustle and say "see, that's why he's great" ...
                                Just wanted to see if it worked. It does. Move along, not really trying to cause a tangent.
                                Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
                                Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
                                Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
                                Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
                                And life itself, rushing over me
                                Life itself, the wind in black elms,
                                Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

                                Comment

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