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Thread: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Seth I don't think you understand the point that me and others have been making regarding Simon, yes we know he is willing to pay to have a competitive team(up to the cap), I just don't think he is willing to spend for a championship even if it means going over the cap, signing Hibbert and Hill doesn't have to do with anything that me and others have been talking about, he has to spend the money regardless.
    I don't think this is a particularly fair assessment, especially when you consider how many years the Pacers have spent over the cap (and, if I remember correctly, also in the LT area once or twice).

    My problem is when people say Simon positively WILL NOT spend and so therefore blah blah blah. I think the reality is that Simon is WILLING to spend for a PROVEN result, and the people who complain are the ones whose "acceptable risk" is Herb's "too risky".

    Is Simon being too conservative? Perhaps - I certainly don't think so, since I think a max offer for Gordon was pretty much a crazy move considering the injury history. Then again, I tend to see the damage of failure as of more concern than the possibility of success, especially given the situation starting in 2004. I can understand why people would disagree with that, and that's fine, but to fly in the face of almost 30 years of spending patterns to claim that it is all a basic "won't spend money on a championship team" issue is a bit bogus.

    The Pacers have been conservative (sometimes to a fault) and that gets reinforced when the most recent case of trying to break that mold resulted in a public f**king in the stands at the Palace. I think Simon is more than willing to spend the money but ONLY if someone can make the case that the money is being spent on a high-percentage move.

    Ironically, for all that Walsh has that "do nothing" moniker, I think he is much better able to convince Simon what to spend money on than Bird was. Some of that may be due to Bird's choices, some of it may just be due to the relationship Walsh and Simon have had over the years.

    I'll take "spend on the wrong players" or "slow to pull the right trigger" or even "poor evaluation of talent" as critiques of the various previous FO lineups we've had. I may or may not agree, but I think they have a basis in history. The whole sound bite of "too cheap to spend money" just doesn't hold water, though.
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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    My question is: If you're willing to overspend on your own FA's then why not extend the same process to other FA's (and the FO should stop with any nonsense about not going after RFA's)?
    Because your own FAs are a known quantity. You absolutely know the risks you are taking because they've been in your system,. working with your training staff and coaches, and have a good idea of their role. You are also seldom bidding against tons of other teams (particularly with your own RFAs), and when you are then the market price is good to use to evaluate against what you know to be a fact about your player. Even when you overspend, with your own FA you pretty much KNOW how much of that is a risk and how much of it is value.

    Another team's FA is not as known a quantity. How will they fit? Will they be more than a one-contract rental? Will they accept a role or disrupt a rotation beyond their worth on the floor? An injury history with another team's training staff isn't public or clear - was it a fluke or was it chroinic? How can you evaluate how MUCH you are overpaying when you have so many unanswered questions?

    As I said above, it is a matter of risk assessment, and overspending for high risk isn't at all as easy to justify as overspending for a known quantity.
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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Ironically, for all that Walsh has that "do nothing" moniker, I think he is much better able to convince Simon what to spend money on than Bird was. Some of that may be due to Bird's choices, some of it may just be due to the relationship Walsh and Simon have had over the years.
    This could be the bone of contention with Bird, who knows. Lets see....Walsh....we have Croshere, Bender, Tinsley, Harrington, S. Jackson, JO...and im sure Im forgetting some...So Bird goes thru and cleans it all up and gets the team under the cap finally and then isnt given the opportunity evidently to do as he thinks is best. Only to have Walsh come back and immediately dole out Hills and Hibberts contracts which most agree are overpaying.

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by cinotimz View Post
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    This could be the bone of contention with Bird, who knows. Lets see....Walsh....we have Croshere, Bender, Tinsley, Harrington, S. Jackson, JO...and im sure Im forgetting some...So Bird goes thru and cleans it all up and gets the team under the cap finally and then isnt given the opportunity evidently to do as he thinks is best. Only to have Walsh come back and immediately dole out Hills and Hibberts contracts which most agree are overpaying.
    I suppose that's one way of looking at it, and definitely in the "Bird knows what he's doing better than Walsh" side of the ongoing controversy. The single example given in support of Bird having a plan that Simon was balking on - that he wanted to go after Gordon - doesn't clear up if the problem was general or specific to Gordon alone. I really think Simon had the right to consider whether the players Bird wanted to bring in at what would have ended up being max salaries have just put us in the exact same situation we just got out of, and I think he was doing that. If you pay the max to incoming FAs who then fail to contribute, all you've done is increased your expenses while failing to increase either your revenue or your sports success (and you better be able to do one or the other of those if not both at this point).

    Obviously I am of the camp that believes the "no RFA bidding" stricture is due to the "guaranteed significantly overpay" outcome more than "gentlemen just don't do that kind of thing" posturing.
    BillS

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    I suppose that's one way of looking at it, and definitely in the "Bird knows what he's doing better than Walsh" side of the ongoing controversy. The single example given in support of Bird having a plan that Simon was balking on - that he wanted to go after Gordon - doesn't clear up if the problem was general or specific to Gordon alone. I really think Simon had the right to consider whether the players Bird wanted to bring in at what would have ended up being max salaries have just put us in the exact same situation we just got out of, and I think he was doing that. If you pay the max to incoming FAs who then fail to contribute, all you've done is increased your expenses while failing to increase either your revenue or your sports success (and you better be able to do one or the other of those if not both at this point).

    Obviously I am of the camp that believes the "no RFA bidding" stricture is due to the "guaranteed significantly overpay" outcome more than "gentlemen just don't do that kind of thing" posturing.
    I totally agree that Simon has the right. Think Ive stated that a number of times. I also can understand though why it might have been the straw that broke the camel's back. Bird already feels-and rightfully so-that he has one hand tied behind his back due to being a small market team. Secondly, he had given Simon a plan and by all accounts executed it to near perfection with highly desirable results, some might even say surpassing all expectations. For that Bird, or anyone in a similar position might feel he had earned the right to get the benefit of the doubt on a decision at a time that all had been pointing at as a critical time for the future of the franchise. As a small market team its somewhat of a rarity that you have a franchise player wanting to come your way. And Gordon being a franchise player can be argued to death, but if indeed Bird felt that way and wanted to pursue him, well...its not hard to see how he could just kinda throw up his hands in the air after all the hard work over the last 3 or 4 years...all that work to get us to this point, only to not be able to do what we set out to do. Guess maybe Bird felt like he had set the table and prepared the dinner, but then wasnt going to be able to enjoy the dinner. Simons right? Absolutely. The right thing to do? Who knows. But Bird had every right to then choose not to continue as well. And thats a bit tough to swallow given his track record and most of us know how competitive he is and wants nothing but to win a title. Given the fact hes shown tremendous competence to the point of winning executive of the year and given his unparalleled desire to win, its hard to feel to good about a scenario that causes him to walk away after so much relative success in a relative short period of time.

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by cinotimz View Post
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    But Bird had every right to then choose not to continue as well.
    Certainly. Not arguing that point at all. Just arguing against the speculation that in some cases has gone from "Simon wouldn't spend the money Bird wanted" to "Simon will never spend money at all so we're totally screwed".

    Quote Originally Posted by cinotimz View Post
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    And thats a bit tough to swallow given his track record and most of us know how competitive he is and wants nothing but to win a title. Given the fact hes shown tremendous competence to the point of winning executive of the year and given his unparalleled desire to win, its hard to feel to good about a scenario that causes him to walk away after so much relative success in a relative short period of time.
    Here's the thing for me, though. I really think one of Bird's biggest weaknesses is evaluating players. For all that I'm pleased that his discipline allowed the team to get where it is in re the cap, and for all that I think his overall record (particularly the team put together for this past year) was successful, I think his player evaluation is wildly inconsistent. Never mind that Gordon isn't a no-brainer to overpay due to injury concerns, I'm not certain Bird can show a high enough success rate picking players to be given a green light to spend whatever he wants to spend on whatever players he wants. Taking the risk on rookies or guys coming off injuries for below-market salaries is one thing, taking the same risks at max salaries and flirting with the LT is quite another.
    BillS

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Certainly. Not arguing that point at all. Just arguing against the speculation that in some cases has gone from "Simon wouldn't spend the money Bird wanted" to "Simon will never spend money at all so we're totally screwed".



    Here's the thing for me, though. I really think one of Bird's biggest weaknesses is evaluating players. For all that I'm pleased that his discipline allowed the team to get where it is in re the cap, and for all that I think his overall record (particularly the team put together for this past year) was successful, I think his player evaluation is wildly inconsistent. Never mind that Gordon isn't a no-brainer to overpay due to injury concerns, I'm not certain Bird can show a high enough success rate picking players to be given a green light to spend whatever he wants to spend on whatever players he wants. Taking the risk on rookies or guys coming off injuries for below-market salaries is one thing, taking the same risks at max salaries and flirting with the LT is quite another.
    Hmmm...well...I guess we all have opinions on that. I guess I think hes probably as good as most any. Its very subjective, and I dont think there are any experts that always get it right alot more than others. Compared to Donnie, I think hes better And I feel hes better because its he that actually does even more of the evaluation versus Donnie who I always believed relied on others more than he let on. The thing that takes it over the top for me is I believe that most all of the players have such huge respect for Bird that he simply brings an edge that simply is unique to pretty much anyone else in his position. Has he made lots of mistakes in talent evaluation? sure. But everyone has. But he also has made alot fewer mistakes when it comes to doling out crazy contracts than most. Especially Walsh as we touched on earlier. Its not an exact science. Fair amount of luck involved. He did draft Granger, Hibbert, and George, so.....dont think hes all bad. I mean hes totally responsible for putting the complete roster together that took the floor last year. That had the 5th best record in the NBA. With a minimal payroll. So I find it a bit hard to say hes not very good at evaluating talent.
    Last edited by cinotimz; 07-10-2012 at 04:26 PM.

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by cinotimz View Post
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    He did draft Granger, Hibbert, and George, so.....dont think hes all bad. I mean hes totally responsible for putting the complete roster together that took the floor last year. That had the 5th best record in the NBA. With a minimal payroll. So I find it a bit hard to say hes not very good at evaluating talent.
    There's a part of me, though, that thinks Bird's ceiling as a talent evaluator is these guys that have about the same talent level or less. The biggest reason is that he falls in love with guys who have potential they could reach if they would just work as hard as he did - nearly all his failures have been that kind of player, who is probably role-player good but would have to be out of his mind work-ethic wise to get any further. These guys are good, but no one thinks that just this amount of good will take us to the next level as a team.

    How will it be different moving forward with Donnie? I don't know - I myself have said how my concern is that time has passed him by in terms of how to treat players and how to expect players to treat the team. On the other hand, I am intrigued and excited about the Walsh/Pritchard combination because I think the complement one another in terms of FO skills.
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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    BillS I don't think I have read anything you have written on this page 12 of this thread that I didn't agree with.

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    There's a part of me, though, that thinks Bird's ceiling as a talent evaluator is these guys that have about the same talent level or less. The biggest reason is that he falls in love with guys who have potential they could reach if they would just work as hard as he did - nearly all his failures have been that kind of player, who is probably role-player good but would have to be out of his mind work-ethic wise to get any further. These guys are good, but no one thinks that just this amount of good will take us to the next level as a team.

    How will it be different moving forward with Donnie? I don't know - I myself have said how my concern is that time has passed him by in terms of how to treat players and how to expect players to treat the team. On the other hand, I am intrigued and excited about the Walsh/Pritchard combination because I think the complement one another in terms of FO skills.
    Or...in spite of the talent level his teams never tanked to get better draft position...which in turn makes it alot harder to get the top tier talent...drafting two allstars at 17 isnt bad...George is the only pick theyve had in the top 10 forever it seems...and most consider him an allstar in the making. But, probably the biggest thing is in defense of such is this...they havent been in a financial situaton to get any of those top tier players because they have been to busy remaking the roster and culture. Now that theyve finally done such and done a pretty good job of it, its going to be very difficult to do it via the draft. In which case that leaves trades and free agency. U then factor in that not many franchise type free agents want to come to indy and youre back to the Gordon situation. He could very well say hes identified exactly the type of player you speak of, but wasnt permitted to pursue him. And in that regard he feels pretty much hopeless regardless of how competitive he is and thats why he chose to walk away.

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Because your own FAs are a known quantity. You absolutely know the risks you are taking because they've been in your system,. working with your training staff and coaches, and have a good idea of their role. You are also seldom bidding against tons of other teams (particularly with your own RFAs), and when you are then the market price is good to use to evaluate against what you know to be a fact about your player. Even when you overspend, with your own FA you pretty much KNOW how much of that is a risk and how much of it is value.

    Another team's FA is not as known a quantity. How will they fit? Will they be more than a one-contract rental? Will they accept a role or disrupt a rotation beyond their worth on the floor? An injury history with another team's training staff isn't public or clear - was it a fluke or was it chroinic? How can you evaluate how MUCH you are overpaying when you have so many unanswered questions?

    As I said above, it is a matter of risk assessment, and overspending for high risk isn't at all as easy to justify as overspending for a known quantity.
    So if you were Miami you would have never taken the chance to take on Lebron and Bosh because you didn't know how they were going to match? Or if you were the Lakers you don't sign Nash because you don't know what kind of risk a 38 years old player can have in your team? I could bring more examples, the NBA is a risky business and if you are not willing to take risks you are in the wrong business, unless your business is to be a middle of the pack team that doesn't go over the cap so it can collect some money at the end of the year.

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Because your own FAs are a known quantity. You absolutely know the risks you are taking because they've been in your system,. working with your training staff and coaches, and have a good idea of their role.
    As I said above, it is a matter of risk assessment, and overspending for high risk isn't at all as easy to justify as overspending for a known quantity.
    You mean like Croshere? Rose? Tinsley? Bender? Foster? Harrington? JO? ....
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    You mean like Croshere? Rose? Tinsley? Bender? Foster? Harrington? JO? ....
    JO was 3rd in MVP voting that year, San Antonio was offering the max too, can't blame him for that.

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Wow, this article has turned out to pretty much be a Rorschach test. We have an article where a guy, heard from a guy, that talked to some former Celtics, that Larry Bird said, Simon won't spend money. And it appears many are pretty much seeing any truth they want from that.

    And yet, still no one seems to think the craziest thing in this article, if any of it is true at all, is that the NBA is working behind the scenes to make the Bobcats a better team?

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    So if you were Miami you would have never taken the chance to take on Lebron and Bosh because you didn't know how they were going to match? Or if you were the Lakers you don't sign Nash because you don't know what kind of risk a 38 years old player can have in your team? I could bring more examples, the NBA is a risky business and if you are not willing to take risks you are in the wrong business, unless your business is to be a middle of the pack team that doesn't go over the cap so it can collect some money at the end of the year.
    So YOU are saying that signing LeBron is the SAME amount of risk as signing Gordon? If you are, then you need to go back to Risk Analysis 101.

    I'm not saying FAs on other teams are universally bad and therefore never spend money on them. I said the reason it is EASIER to overspend on your own FAs is that you can assess them better. Yes, there are no-brainer players out there you'd drop the max on BECAUSE YOU ACTUALLY DO KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT THEM. THAT'S WHY THEY ARE NO-BRAINERS.

    You cannot tell me that a small market team needs to treat every FA who is potentially better than a player already on the team like they are LeBron or Nash or Bosh. That would be downright foolish.

    You never take a risk simply to take a risk. You take a risk because the upside gets you enough to make the downside worth it if it happens. Usually that's because the risk itself is minimized. It could be because the downside isn't damaging vs. the upside potential (signing West for what we paid - how bad would it really be if his knee didn't make it through the season?). The one to watch out for is where the potential benefit seems so high that you ignore the high probability of the downside. You'd spend a buck to buy a ticket for a $1M lottery. You wouldn't mortgage your house to spend $100K on lottery tickets.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    You mean like Croshere? Rose? Tinsley? Bender? Foster? Harrington? JO? ....
    Never said it was somehow foolproof or that mistakes also couldn't be made. Just that you can be more confident in your decision making.

    And I think Rose and JO should really be off that list based on what they were doing at the time they got new contracts. I understand there are a lot of people who think Foster was waaaay overpaid, but I disagree.
    BillS

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    Default Re: NY Daily News: 'Larry Bird flew the coop in Indiana and the Pacers' billionaire owner is partly to blame'

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    And I think Rose and JO should really be off that list based on what they were doing at the time they got new contracts. I understand there are a lot of people who think Foster was waaaay overpaid, but I disagree.
    No real argument that ultimately both of them were way overpaid. You might be able to argue they appeared that they would be worth their contracts as they moved forward, but neither lived up to their contract. JO's contract ended up being one of the worst in the NBA.

    Hindsight is 20-20 and hindsight says those contracts were a mistake. People are paid far more than any of us are paid not to make those kind of evaluation errors. But mistakes do happen.

    Of course I think JO was overrated from the start and was never the most valuable player on the team, let alone never should've been under league MVP consideration. ...So I'm biased
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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