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Thread: Off season Rumors and Speculation

  1. #4226
    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    and what if there's a smart team that instead of paying DWill+Joe Johnson+Gerald Wallace+Humphries+Brook Lopez 72 mil, manages to build a far better core of Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Ibaka-Collison for 60 mil?

    Are they in some disadvantage which forces them to break up the core and add more expensive end of bench players than the Nets?
    Uh, yes. The Nets just moved to a major metro area where they hope to grab a slice of the juicy NY revenue. Plus they're owned by a Russian oligarch. Neither applies to the Thunder. The Thunder, like the Pacers, need to watch their budget.

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    there's no perfect situation. They have to choose, Harden or a bunch of mediocre role players.
    What you guys are saying, is that it's better to let Harden go than finish out the roster with cheap players. Which just makes no sense to me, neither from basketball perspective, nor from assets perspective.
    And you're right. It doesn't make sense from a basketball or asset perspective. We're talking financial perspective here, in that OKC will have to pay a lot of $$$ in luxury tax. Especially if they keep this core for the long term (Hello new "repeat offender" tax in the CBA!)

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    I doubt you guys would say the same if the Pacers were in a similar situation. E.g., lets say George Hill broke out to an All Star level last year, and the Pacers had to choose, pay this new star and sign a cheap backup instead of DJ Augustin, or sign a lot of mediocre guys. To me, it seems like a nobrainer.
    The Pacers' salary situation is different from the Thunder. We're farther from the tax, plus our other big salaries like Granger and West are up in a few years, which gives us flexibility. So yes, in your scenario I imagine we'd pay more for Hill, while still picking up bench pieces like Augustin et al.

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  3. #4227

    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Uh, yes. The Nets just moved to a major metro area where they hope to grab a slice of the juicy NY revenue. Plus they're owned by a Russian oligarch. Neither applies to the Thunder. The Thunder, like the Pacers, need to watch their budget.
    you aren't answering the question at all, i don't think you understood me there.
    The Nets have an expensive core + cheap role players. The Thunder can have a better cheaper core + cheap role players. And not go into luxury tax.
    So why do they have to go into luxury tax, again? Why can't they follow the Nets model, just in a cheaper, better, more efficient way and with a more talented core that they've built through their smarts? Why do they have to break that core? You say financial reasons. But what financial reasons? Why not just finish the roster with cheaper guys?

    Re the Pacers: IF George Hill was a max player (remember, we are talking in hypotheticals here), the Pacers wouldn't have been able to both keep him and add all those role players, while staying under luxury tax. So yes, there'd be a choice.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    In 2003, Stephen Jackson became a darling in San Antonio. He endeared himself to Spurs fans by making big shot after big shot in the playoffs, capped with several 3-pointers down the stretch in the championship-clinching game of the Finals.

    With Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili already on the roster, the Spurs offered Jackson a three-year, $10 million deal after the season.

    He walked.

    Fans freaked.
    Despite his talent....given SJax's temperment and the multiple demands for getting extensions WELL BEFORE his contract was up, with 20/20 hindsight and seeing the multiple Teams that SJax has been jettisoned to.......the Fans should breath a sigh of relief and thank Presti for letting SJax walk years ago.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by pacergod2 View Post
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    I honestly see them trading Harden for other, much cheaper young guys with upside if they can't get him extended at a reasonable price. I just don't see them giving him more than about $10M per. And to be honest, I think that is more than a fair deal for Harden. I really like Harden's game, but if OKC is going to max him out, they are in essence paying him much more than $13.7M per year starting out. And he is not worth what Durant, Westbrook, or Ibaka are.

    If they don't get him to sign for a rather cheap contract, I could see a deal such as Harden/Perkins for Noah and a SG/draft pick combination, or Harden for Derozan and Davis. A team like Charlotte (or Orlando, Washington, or Atlanta) should be willing to pay for Harden (think G. Henderson, R. Williams and an unprotected first from CHA). Just some ideas, not necessarily what I think value is personally.
    The time for OKC to do that was at last year's draft. They could have traded Harden for Henderson, Matt Carroll, and the #2 pick (Kidd-Gilchrist). Then they'd have Henderson and Carroll off the books in 2013-14, while picking up cheap labor in Kidd-Gilchrist, who'd fit in well off the bench for OKC.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    So why do they have to go into luxury tax, again?
    Durant and Westbrooks contracts will continue to escalate. Right now, it would work, sure. In the future when KD and Westbrook are combining for 40 million by themselves instead of the 28 million this year, it will not continue to work. They will eventually end up in the tax. You can't always look at now as a GM, you have to plan for the future as well.

    I think the other thing you're missing is the year before the lockout the Thunder lost money. Top half of the NBA in attendance, and with one of the lowest salaries in the NBA, they still lost money. It doesn't matter what the Lakers, or Nets, or Knicks spend they'll still be profitable. Such is the life as an NBA small market. You simply can't spend like some of the other teams.

    *EDIT* Oh yeah, and as far as the losing money issue, if they amnesty Perkins they still have to pay it. It just doesn't count against the cap.
    Last edited by xBulletproof; 09-12-2012 at 06:59 PM.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by xBulletproof View Post
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    Durant and Westbrooks contracts will continue to escalate. Right now, it would work, sure. In the future when KD and Westbrook are combining for 40 million by themselves instead of the 28 million this year, it will not continue to work. They will eventually end up in the tax. You can't always look at now as a GM, you have to plan for the future as well.

    I think the other thing you're missing is the year before the lockout the Thunder lost money. Top half of the NBA in attendance, and with one of the lowest salaries in the NBA, they still lost money. It doesn't matter what the Lakers, or Nets, or Knicks spend they'll still be profitable. Such is the life as an NBA small market. You simply can't spend like some of the other teams.

    *EDIT* Oh yeah, and as far as the losing money issue, if they amnesty Perkins they still have to pay it. It just doesn't count against the cap.
    they won't combine for 40 mil until 2017 or 18. By that time, Harden (and Westbrook, and Durant) will be looking for another contract.
    Keep in mind, the luxury tax line will continue to escalate as well. And it's bound to take a major jump in a couple years once new TV contracts are up.
    And so many things could go right or wrong by that time... a Westbrook injury? another rookie gem turning into a star? who knows. Is what you suggest really a plan for the future? IMO, it would be rather shortsighted to get rid of a very young, all star caliber player now because you might not be able to resign him 5 years from now.

    re losing money, i'm not sure i understand the argument. A, most of the NBA lost money pre-lockout. B, what does it mean? is the argument now that they'd let Harden go not because of luxury tax concerns, but because they will want to stay considerably under tax? that would sound rather far-fetched.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    Keep in mind, the luxury tax line will continue to escalate as well.
    The rest of it we just disagree on, but this isn't factually correct. It's not a guarantee that the tax line will continue to go up.

    The 40 million dollar mark isn't a hard line where the problem starts happening. It was just an example. Their contracts will continue to escalate and if you're trying to toe the tax line like you're suggesting, you're playing with fire.

    *EDIT* - To continue on the tax not going up in the future, the current cap numbers are based on the last CBA that had the players getting 57% of revenue. Part of the agreement is that the cap numbers wouldn't change until next season. Last years short season would have come up with a very low revenue number and screwed the cap numbers up this year. So we won't see the effects of the new CBA until next season. The new CBA can only be as high as 51%, but can be as low as 49%. So, even if revenue stays flat from pre-lockout numbers, the players will get less. Meaning the cap (and tax number) could very well go down.
    Last edited by xBulletproof; 09-12-2012 at 08:29 PM.

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  13. #4233

    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by xBulletproof View Post
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    The rest of it we just disagree on, but this isn't factually correct. It's not a guarantee that the tax line will continue to go up.

    The 40 million dollar mark isn't a hard line where the problem starts happening. It was just an example. Their contracts will continue to escalate and if you're trying to toe the tax line like you're suggesting, you're playing with fire.

    *EDIT* - To continue on the tax not going up in the future, the current cap numbers are based on the last CBA that had the players getting 57% of revenue. Part of the agreement is that the cap numbers wouldn't change until next season. Last years short season would have come up with a very low revenue number and screwed the cap numbers up this year. So we won't see the effects of the new CBA until next season. The new CBA can only be as high as 51%, but can be as low as 49%. So, even if revenue stays flat from pre-lockout numbers, the players will get less. Meaning the cap (and tax number) could very well go down.
    i understand that it's an example and an exaggeration, but your argument was based on this exaggeration. once you put it into perspective and apply realistic numbers, the problem disappears.

    re edit part:
    1. luxury tax is not calculated based on the BRI split between players and teams. it's based on % of total BRI, mainly. if it results in players getting more than their 51%, the owners get it back via escrow.
    2. BRI is growing. Which means tax line should be expected to keep growing as well.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    i understand that it's an example and an exaggeration, but your argument was based on this exaggeration. once you put it into perspective and apply realistic numbers, the problem disappears.

    re edit part:
    1. luxury tax is not calculated based on the BRI split between players and teams. it's based on % of total BRI, mainly. if it results in players getting more than their 51%, the owners get it back via escrow.
    2. BRI is growing. Which means tax line should be expected to keep growing as well.
    Here's a short reason why the luxury tax won't necessarily go up. http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#appendix

    In the prior CBA, the luxury tax was 61% of BRI. In this current CBA, it's 53.51% of BRI. In the 2011-12 and 2012-13, it was guaranteed to go no lower than $70.307 million.

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    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    you aren't answering the question at all, i don't think you understood me there.
    The Nets have an expensive core + cheap role players. The Thunder can have a better cheaper core + cheap role players. And not go into luxury tax.
    Ah, I get your point now. But I'm not sure holding up the Nets as an example of anything other than profligate spending is in order here. They haven't won anything yet. And I suspect their bench will be a weak point all year long.

    And even if we accept your premise, the math is very tight. If OKC keeps the 8 you proposed at ~$67m, that leaves somewhere between $3m-$5m (depending on where the tax falls) to split on 5 players. It's still possible to fit 5 players in a $3m budget, but they'd have to be players with 0 years of NBA experience.

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    So why do they have to go into luxury tax, again? Why can't they follow the Nets model, just in a cheaper, better, more efficient way and with a more talented core that they've built through their smarts? Why do they have to break that core? You say financial reasons. But what financial reasons? Why not just finish the roster with cheaper guys?
    They could, if you put it that way. For a year, sure. But what happens if a bench guy plays his way into a bigger contract? Say in your Nets example, what if CJ Watson plays well and looks for a bigger payday? The Nets can say sure, here's the $3m mini MLE for you, because they're already paying a ton of tax anyway. But if it's OKC already operating at the tax limit? They have no margin.

    So it's either the cheap guy they sign sucks, or he plays well and gets better offers. Do they keep looking for 1-year guys with something to prove? I suppose it's possible, but seems very hit-and-miss. Even the Spurs (who are really the pioneers of the keep-the-core, swap-the-spare-parts model) had some misses along the way.

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    Re the Pacers: IF George Hill was a max player (remember, we are talking in hypotheticals here), the Pacers wouldn't have been able to both keep him and add all those role players, while staying under luxury tax. So yes, there'd be a choice.
    Hill is being paid $8m this year. Max contract would have (hypothetically) been $13.7m, same as Hibbert. Difference of $5.7m. Pacers are currently at $65.1m (not counting the training camp contracts). Not sure what the tax level is exactly, but yeah it will be close.

  17. #4236

    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by shags View Post
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    Here's a short reason why the luxury tax won't necessarily go up. http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#appendix

    In the prior CBA, the luxury tax was 61% of BRI. In this current CBA, it's 53.51% of BRI. In the 2011-12 and 2012-13, it was guaranteed to go no lower than $70.307 million.
    that's why they've set the transitional period, though. those numbers aren't accidental. BRI growth per CBA is projected at ~4.5% a year (though it's very dependent on TV revenue which is bound to take a massive leap soon). 4.5% growth over a 3 year period would result in a luxury tax (based on 53.51% of BRI) over 70.307 million. (1.045)^3 x 53.51% is slightly over 61%

    will that growth stand, idk of course. Considering current state of the league it seems very likely.
    but even if we are to be very pessimistic and predict the growth based on NBA's leanest years (~4% a year), we'd be looking at - at worst - a very minor tax line decrease in 2013-2014 and then growth after that.

  18. #4237

    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Ah, I get your point now. But I'm not sure holding up the Nets as an example of anything other than profligate spending is in order here. They haven't won anything yet. And I suspect their bench will be a weak point all year long.

    And even if we accept your premise, the math is very tight. If OKC keeps the 8 you proposed at ~$67m, that leaves somewhere between $3m-$5m (depending on where the tax falls) to split on 5 players. It's still possible to fit 5 players in a $3m budget, but they'd have to be players with 0 years of NBA experience.



    They could, if you put it that way. For a year, sure. But what happens if a bench guy plays his way into a bigger contract? Say in your Nets example, what if CJ Watson plays well and looks for a bigger payday? The Nets can say sure, here's the $3m mini MLE for you, because they're already paying a ton of tax anyway. But if it's OKC already operating at the tax limit? They have no margin.

    So it's either the cheap guy they sign sucks, or he plays well and gets better offers. Do they keep looking for 1-year guys with something to prove? I suppose it's possible, but seems very hit-and-miss. Even the Spurs (who are really the pioneers of the keep-the-core, swap-the-spare-parts model) had some misses along the way.



    Hill is being paid $8m this year. Max contract would have (hypothetically) been $13.7m, same as Hibbert. Difference of $5.7m. Pacers are currently at $65.1m (not counting the training camp contracts). Not sure what the tax level is exactly, but yeah it will be close.
    tax is 70.3 atm.
    re role players playing into bigger contracts - well, Harden played himself into a bigger contract too. I'd give preference to Harden over role players. Let role players go, or trade them. Keep the core. Considering all solid players who got cheap contracts this summer, role players are easier to find than Hardens.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    tax is 70.3 atm.
    re role players playing into bigger contracts - well, Harden played himself into a bigger contract too. I'd give preference to Harden over role players. Let role players go, or trade them. Keep the core. Considering all solid players who got cheap contracts this summer, role players are easier to find than Hardens.
    I think you are, in turn, missing my point. Look at the Heat as an example. The year they signed their big 3, they had to work under the salary cap (i.e. below $60m) and had to assemble their bench from cheap veterans. That worked short term, but they're at the $85m team salary level now, which is deep in the tax. Similarly with the Nets, they went with a sparse bench this year, because of the rules, but you know they'll spending as much as they can as soon as they are allowed.

    What you are proposing with the Thunder is different and unprecedented. The Thunder aren't expected to go into the tax the same way that the Heat and Nets are. Maintaining a sparse bench through the lifetime of their big 4 contracts is mathematically possible, but to my knowledge no one's made a go of it. If the Thunder did try, they'd be the first I think.

  20. #4239

    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    I think you are, in turn, missing my point. Look at the Heat as an example. The year they signed their big 3, they had to work under the salary cap (i.e. below $60m) and had to assemble their bench from cheap veterans. That worked short term, but they're at the $85m team salary level now, which is deep in the tax. Similarly with the Nets, they went with a sparse bench this year, because of the rules, but you know they'll spending as much as they can as soon as they are allowed.

    What you are proposing with the Thunder is different and unprecedented. The Thunder aren't expected to go into the tax the same way that the Heat and Nets are. Maintaining a sparse bench through the lifetime of their big 4 contracts is mathematically possible, but to my knowledge no one's made a go of it. If the Thunder did try, they'd be the first I think.
    The Heat never planned to stay under tax. They are at 70 mil right now just from 7 guys they got under contract during the summer of the Decision.

    The Thunder on the other hand is itself unprecedented. No team during the luxury tax era was able to collect 4 young rising stars (one of them a mega star) so cheaply. No team was in position to maintain such a core without going over tax. Not to mention several underpaid role players they have under contract for the next few years. The question is what's the best way to proceed. Letting Harden go seems unnecessary and a waste.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    I don't see how they can pay Harden, Durant and Westbrook max deals with IBaka's contract as well.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    I don't see how they can pay Harden, Durant and Westbrook max deals with IBaka's contract as well.
    I'd really like to offer Paul George and as many picks as it took to get Harden.

    Unfortunately, I don't think we can offer him a max deal after the moves we made this offseason.
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by BRushWithDeath View Post
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    I'd really like to offer Paul George and as many picks as it took to get Harden.
    It's definitely an interesting scenario. If Paul was still a 12PPG, 5rpg guy by trade deadline this year, I'd be ready to pull the trigger.

    Of course, the Pacer homer in me wishes we could see Harden and George together. That'd be a hell of a wing combo I think.

    EDIT: Wouldn't we have his bird rights?
    Last edited by Trader Joe; 09-13-2012 at 02:20 PM.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    It's definitely an interesting scenario. If Paul was still a 12PPG, 5rpg guy by trade deadline this year, I'd be ready to pull the trigger.

    Of course, the Pacer homer in me wishes we could see Harden and George together. That'd be a hell of a wing combo I think.

    EDIT: Wouldn't we have his bird rights?
    Yeah... But I would think it would push us into LT if we plan on keeping West or getting someone comparable... But I'm no cap expert...
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    The Thunder on the other hand is itself unprecedented. No team during the luxury tax era was able to collect 4 young rising stars (one of them a mega star) so cheaply.
    They won't stay cheap. I finally decided to really look it up, next year Ibaka, Durant and Westbrook account for 45 million. Harden gets near the max and you're looking at 57. Then Perkins makes that 66. Then you've got 4 million between the next 8 guys?

    Not going to work.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by xBulletproof View Post
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    They won't stay cheap. I finally decided to really look it up, next year Ibaka, Durant and Westbrook account for 45 million. Harden gets near the max and you're looking at 57. Then Perkins makes that 66. Then you've got 4 million between the next 8 guys?

    Not going to work.

    Can OKC stay within the apron/5M low tax rate range. The tax cost is not too bad if you just cross the threshold. Miami, LAL, NYK et al will be facing the new tax rate and the 4th yr penalty both at the same time. But OKC will be a new tax payer and therefore paying less tax.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    It's definitely an interesting scenario. If Paul was still a 12PPG, 5rpg guy by trade deadline this year, I'd be ready to pull the trigger.

    Of course, the Pacer homer in me wishes we could see Harden and George together. That'd be a hell of a wing combo I think.

    EDIT: Wouldn't we have his bird rights?
    Harden and George together would be awesome. If Pritchard was to ever use that magic of his, he'll find another team to get involved with Granger going out and Harden coming in. And I'm not advocating trading Granger. Just saying Harden and PG together would be awesome.
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  31. #4247

    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by BRushWithDeath View Post
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    I'd really like to offer Paul George and as many picks as it took to get Harden.

    Unfortunately, I don't think we can offer him a max deal after the moves we made this offseason.
    Not me, this seems to be a case of selling low and buying high.

    but I'm not as big on Harden as a max player. He strikes me as a guy who has maxed out his talent early in his career. and a guy that looks good vs Minny in January, but not against LA in May or [hopefully] Indy in June.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by xBulletproof View Post
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    They won't stay cheap. I finally decided to really look it up, next year Ibaka, Durant and Westbrook account for 45 million. Harden gets near the max and you're looking at 57. Then Perkins makes that 66. Then you've got 4 million between the next 8 guys?

    Not going to work.
    Can't they just amnesty Perk's contract and then use the remaining 15 million on 9 guys?
    "I had to take her down like Chris Brown."

    -Lance Stephenson

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    Member Ace E.Anderson's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by BRushWithDeath View Post
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    I'd really like to offer Paul George and as many picks as it took to get Harden.

    Unfortunately, I don't think we can offer him a max deal after the moves we made this offseason.
    Though very good, I don't think we would be too much better utilizing Harden and Hibbert as our max players. We would need to fill the rest of the roster out with athletic defenders for the wing to make up for our lack of footspeed at pretty much every position.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by xIndyFan View Post
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    Not me, this seems to be a case of selling low and buying high.

    but I'm not as big on Harden as a max player. He strikes me as a guy who has maxed out his talent early in his career. and a guy that looks good vs Minny in January, but not against LA in May or [hopefully] Indy in June.
    He just turned 23. Even in the extraordinary unlikely case that he has reached his peak, he'd still be the best player on our team by a country mile.

    Right now, he's Manu Ginobli. Compare their respective third seasons. Also know that Ginobli was 5 years older than Harden at the same point in their careers.

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