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Thread: Off season Rumors and Speculation

  1. #4201
    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Oh and Ben Wallace is looking for a team...

    http://articles.boston.com/2012-09-0...dan-grant-hill

    Veteran center Ben Wallace has indicated that he would like to return to the NBA but it likely won’t be with the Pistons, who have begun a youth movement and plan to go with Andre Drummond, Austin Daye, and Jonas Jerebko as their primary big men. Wallace said he was retiring after last season but changed his mind in July and is looking for a deal . . .
    Weren't there some people who think the Pacers need more big man depth?

  2. #4202
    future dragon trainer Heisenberg's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Oh...so Boston.com's insinuating the Pistons are done with Monroe eh? I mean, if they just want to dump the guy...

    Wallace needs to retire, dude's toast. Wonder if he's made bad investments or something. Maybe has a gambling addiction (while sucking at gambling) like Iverson.

  3. #4203
    Member Speed's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Not a place to put this, but the preseason opens in one month from today on 10/10/12. Also, I saw the first NBA preview magazine on the stands, yesterday. It's getting closer!

  4. #4204
    Danny Granger PowerRanger DGPR's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Speed View Post
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    Not a place to put this, but the preseason opens in one month from today on 10/10/12. Also, I saw the first NBA preview magazine on the stands, yesterday. It's getting closer!
    Wow, it's hard to believe that training camp is just around the corner. It seems like just yesterday that we were playing the Heat.
    "I've got an idea--an idea so smart that my head would explode if I even began to know what I'm talking about." - Peter Griffin

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  6. #4205
    Member Cody.'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Yea im excited to seethe preseason game at Notre Dame. Who is all going!?

    Follow me @PacerNation_24

  7. #4206
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Leandro Barbosa: "Among others, I'm talking with Phoenix, the Brooklyn Nets and the Los Angeles Lakers. Steve Nash even texted me because he wants me there." UOL Esporte
    .

    Frank Vogel says "Killer instinct, start strong, build a lead and then step on their throats."

  8. #4207
    future dragon trainer Heisenberg's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Portland's Elliott Williams tore his Achilles,' he's out for the year.

  9. #4208
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Portland: Where careers die.
    Counting down the days untill DJ Augustin's contract expires.

  10. #4209
    Lifelong Pacer Fan. PGisthefuture's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by DGPR View Post
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    Wow, it's hard to believe that training camp is just around the corner. It seems like just yesterday that we were playing the Heat.
    When does training camp start?

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  12. #4210
    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Harden trade watch begins?

    And btw, small market fans take note, it's looking like the first major casualty of the new CBA will be small market OKC. Well actually, Dallas was probably first (self-inflicted break up of their champion team in anticipation of harsher taxes), but you don't see LA stop spending do you?

    http://newsok.com/thunder-signing-ja...rticle/3708684

    Thunder signing James Harden 'might' be impossible
    To keep the franchise under the luxury tax, the decision of letting the popular Harden leave OKC might be necessary

    By Jenni Carlson | Published: September 10, 2012

    Sam Presti didn't say that signing James Harden would be impossible.

    It just seemed that way.

    On the day that the Thunder held a press conference to tout the deal done with big man Serge Ibaka, the focus predictably turned to Harden. Signing Ibaka last month meant that three-fourths of the Thunder's young and talented core was secure. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Ibaka are all under contract beyond next season.

    So, what about Harden?

    “James is somebody we value,” Presti said Monday afternoon. “We think he's an important part to what we're trying to do with our team and we're hopeful that he'll be with us.”

    No doubt about that. Harden is super talented, a rare combination of shooter, slasher and distributor. His offensive skills provide an amazing complement to those of Durant and Westbrook.

    “By the same token, we've been very upfront and transparent with everybody that we have some inherent challenges that we face as an organization as a result of the new collective bargaining agreement,” the Thunder general manager continued. “I know we'd love to have him here. I think James would like to be here as well. But at the end of the day ... you have to find a way to make it work for everybody.”

    Notice those qualifiers in there? By the same token? But?

    You don't have to read far between the lines to realize the reality — striking a deal with Harden is going to be like walking uphill on an icy sidewalk.

    Darn near impossible.

    The deadline to sign him is Oct. 31, so there's still a lot of time to hammer out the details. But Presti seems to be laying the groundwork for what will happen when a deal doesn't get done — Harden will become a restricted free agent next summer, some team will offer him an exorbitant amount of money that the Thunder won't be able to match, and Harden will be playing for another team after this season.

    The problem is the luxury tax.

    In the 2013-14 season, when the new contracts for Ibaka and Harden would begin, the luxury tax would kick in once a team's combined player salaries reach $72 million. The Thunder already has $53.9 million committed to Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins for that season.

    The team could amnesty Perk, but unless some of these newly acquired bigs grow a serious nasty streak, I wouldn't recommend it.

    But even if the Thunder ultimately cuts ties with Perkins, Harden would still have to sign for $10 million a year or so for the team to stay out of luxury-tax trouble. And even then, it might exceed the limit.

    Do that, and the consequences are serious.

    Go over by $9 million — which the Thunder likely would if it pays Harden what he's expected to be worth on the open market — and the Thunder would owe $14.5 million in luxury tax. Add that to the salaries, and the team would be on the hook for nearly $100 million.

    In any market, that's a big chunk of change for an NBA franchise. In Oklahoma City, that level of financial obligation could be crippling.

    That's a lesson Presti learned in San Antonio. He was with the Spurs when they had to make some difficult and unpopular decisions because of finances.

    In 2003, Stephen Jackson became a darling in San Antonio. He endeared himself to Spurs fans by making big shot after big shot in the playoffs, capped with several 3-pointers down the stretch in the championship-clinching game of the Finals.

    With Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili already on the roster, the Spurs offered Jackson a three-year, $10 million deal after the season.

    He walked.

    Fans freaked.

    What the Spurs did was not popular, but because they are a small-market franchise, they have made a commitment to be frugal about finances. That's one of the reasons they've been able to maintain success over several decades. Short-term sacrifices (and PR hits) for long-term stability.

    You'd better believe Presti will do the same with the Thunder.

    That reality might be starting to dawn on Thunder fans, but Monday afternoon, it seemed to have already set in with those close to the situation. As soon as the subject of Harden's contract arose, Ibaka and Thunder coach Scott Brooks went completely and totally stone faced.

    Will signing Harden be impossible?

    Sure looked and sounded that way.

  13. #4211

    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Presti is in negotiations, so he's not going to say "Don't worry fans, we are ready to give him max, we are just trying to lowball him for a while."

    There's no reason why they can't keep him after amnestying Perkins. Perkins gets amnesty, Harden gets his max, and then it's only a question of which end-of-bench role players to let go. They can easily stay under luxury tax. The article assumes that they are going to keep Eric Maynor, Hasheem Thabeet and such, who I'm sure they can live without.

    I don't love the S-Jax comparison either. S-Jax was already getting overpaid with 3x10, considering his production. It was basically a payment for his upside, which is a risky thing, and San Antonio would've been taking a huge risk going higher than that. James Harden is arguably worth the max now, at this moment. Not to mention his trade value when they have him under long term contract. To me, this is more comparable to the Joe Johnson / Phoenix situation, where I still believe Phoenix would've won several titles if they kept that core together.

  14. #4212
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    OKC can't amnesty Perk, beause the deadline to do so was in the middle of July.

    EDIT: Wait, was the amnesty clause good for two years or three?
    Last edited by Since86; 09-12-2012 at 11:47 AM.

  15. #4213
    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    OKC can't amnesty Perk, beause the deadline to do so was in the middle of July.

    EDIT: Wait, was the amnesty clause good for two years or three?
    Amnesty clause is active every year of the new CBA. So yeah, they can amnesty him next year if they want.

    It's not like Perkins makes a ton of money though. He's owed $9m in 2013, which while a fair size chunk, is pretty small compared to what Durant, Westbrook, Harden, and Ibaka will get. And good luck finding another starting center at that price.

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    Presti is in negotiations, so he's not going to say "Don't worry fans, we are ready to give him max, we are just trying to lowball him for a while."
    There's some of that, but looking at the numbers, it does seem difficult. In 2013, Durant will making $17.8m, Westbrook $14.7m, Ibaka $12.2m. Add a max contract for Harden ($13.7m), and that's $58m for 4 players. Add in a couple of veteran salaries (Thabo at $3.9m, Collison at $2.6m), and they're at $65m for 6 players. Not sure where the tax level is next year, but it won't be much higher than $70m (maybe $72m?). And oh yeah, they'll still need to pay someone else to start at center for them.

    So paying tax seems unavoidable for the Thunder if they decide to keep Harden. The only question is how much tax they can stomach. For all that the OKC franchise has accomplished, there is still only so much revenue that they can pull in.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    The amnesty clause goes through 2016.
    http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q67

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  18. #4215

    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    There's some of that, but looking at the numbers, it does seem difficult. In 2013, Durant will making $17.8m, Westbrook $14.7m, Ibaka $12.2m. Add a max contract for Harden ($13.7m), and that's $58m for 4 players. Add in a couple of veteran salaries (Thabo at $3.9m, Collison at $2.6m), and they're at $65m for 6 players. Not sure where the tax level is next year, but it won't be much higher than $70m (maybe $72m?). And oh yeah, they'll still need to pay someone else to start at center for them.

    So paying tax seems unavoidable for the Thunder if they decide to keep Harden. The only question is how much tax they can stomach. For all that the OKC franchise has accomplished, there is still only so much revenue that they can pull in.
    Thabo, Collison, rookies, vet players. They can easily be under tax.
    Collison/Ibaka will handle 5, Perkins kind of sucks in most situations anyway. + they have Aldrich. + they'll get some vets on a minimum. They are a contender with tons of potential, they don't need an All Star center. And if they feel they do, they'll just trade Harden for one at some point.
    This is the oddest part for me... Harden is extremely valuable. As a player and as an asset both. OKC would never let him go just to be able to add a midlevel role player or two. That's like the Pacers letting Hibbert go and signing Kaman and Mayo. Just worse, because Harden is younger, more proven and arguably higher upside than Hibbert.

  19. #4216
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    I honestly see them trading Harden for other, much cheaper young guys with upside if they can't get him extended at a reasonable price. I just don't see them giving him more than about $10M per. And to be honest, I think that is more than a fair deal for Harden. I really like Harden's game, but if OKC is going to max him out, they are in essence paying him much more than $13.7M per year starting out. And he is not worth what Durant, Westbrook, or Ibaka are.

    If they don't get him to sign for a rather cheap contract, I could see a deal such as Harden/Perkins for Noah and a SG/draft pick combination, or Harden for Derozan and Davis. A team like Charlotte (or Orlando, Washington, or Atlanta) should be willing to pay for Harden (think G. Henderson, R. Williams and an unprotected first from CHA). Just some ideas, not necessarily what I think value is personally.
    "Your course, your path, is not going to be like mine," West says. "Everybody is not called to be a multimillionaire. Everybody's not called to be the president. Whatever your best work is, you do it. Do it well. … You cease your own greatness when you aspire to be someone else."

  20. #4217

    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by pacergod2 View Post
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    I honestly see them trading Harden for other, much cheaper young guys with upside if they can't get him extended at a reasonable price. I just don't see them giving him more than about $10M per. And to be honest, I think that is more than a fair deal for Harden. I really like Harden's game, but if OKC is going to max him out, they are in essence paying him much more than $13.7M per year starting out. And he is not worth what Durant, Westbrook, or Ibaka are.

    If they don't get him to sign for a rather cheap contract, I could see a deal such as Harden/Perkins for Noah and a SG/draft pick combination, or Harden for Derozan and Davis. A team like Charlotte (or Orlando, Washington, or Atlanta) should be willing to pay for Harden (think G. Henderson, R. Williams and an unprotected first from CHA). Just some ideas, not necessarily what I think value is personally.
    it will probably start @ ~14.5 mil next year. He's worth it, imo.
    I like your Perkins/Harden -- Noah idea though. I think that's one of the type of deals they'd consider, though maybe Noah is too injured.
    DeRozan and Davis both kind of suck.
    Either way, I have a hard time seeing them let him go, it just makes no sense. You keep him, just like the Pacers kept Hibbert, Hornets kept Gordon and many examples before that (except he's probably a better piece than either of those due to health/age/consistency combination). And then in the future, if you choose so, you look at deals.
    A firesale would make no sense, it would be Isiah-ish.

  21. #4218
    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    Either way, I have a hard time seeing them let him go, it just makes no sense. You keep him, just like the Pacers kept Hibbert, Hornets kept Gordon and many examples before that (except he's probably a better piece than either of those due to health/age/consistency combination). And then in the future, if you choose so, you look at deals.

    A firesale would make no sense, it would be Isiah-ish.
    The difference with Hibbert and Gordon, is that neither Indiana nor NO is in the tax. Both teams can afford to overpay and hold on to their asset, while still keeping the trade option for later.

    I think you're overestimating the ability of OKC to get under the tax. Even a rookie deal player like Aldrich is getting paid $3m. Of course, OKC might choose to pay the tax in the short term (say for 1 or 2 years) and shed salary later on. That's plausible, as long as their owner is willing to pay.

    I do think they'll end up trading Harden, but not in a fire sale. There are enough bidders plus Harden's RFA rights means that he can't hold a team hostage by threatening to leave.

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  23. #4219

    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    well Aldrich is overpaid for what he brings, and he's not guaranteed for next year. They can keep him, they can let him go, but if it comes to it, why would they choose Aldrich over Harden?

    If they pay Harden max and amnesty Perkins, they'll have their best current 6 players at ~65-66 mil next year (Durant, Harden, Westbrook, Ibaka, Thabo, Collison). + Perry Jones III at 1.1 mil. Add next year's rookie at a similar price, if they don't trade him. 67-68 mil, 8 players.
    After that, they have no guaranteed salaries. Am i missing something, how are they forced to go into tax? It's completely up to them. If they want to go there, they can. If not, there's no need to. To me, that's not a situation where you have to sacrifice James Harden.

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    If they pay Harden max and amnesty Perkins, they'll have their best current 6 players at ~65-66 mil next year (Durant, Harden, Westbrook, Ibaka, Thabo, Collison). + Perry Jones III at 1.1 mil. Add next year's rookie at a similar price, if they don't trade him. 67-68 mil, 8 players.
    After that, they have no guaranteed salaries. Am i missing something, how are they forced to go into tax? It's completely up to them. If they want to go there, they can. If not, there's no need to. To me, that's not a situation where you have to sacrifice James Harden.
    The only way your scenario works is if the remaining players average about 1M per player, and that's not going to happen.

  25. #4221
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Harden is not going anywhere they can find ways to get rid of players to stay under the cap, they can even send Perkins to a team under the cap if they want to.

  26. #4222

    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    The only way your scenario works is if the remaining players average about 1M per player, and that's not going to happen.
    isn't that what half the contenders are doing with their final roster spots?

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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    isn't that what half the contenders are doing with their final roster spots?
    Yeah, the ones with 80M in salary.

  28. #4224
    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    If they pay Harden max and amnesty Perkins, they'll have their best current 6 players at ~65-66 mil next year (Durant, Harden, Westbrook, Ibaka, Thabo, Collison). + Perry Jones III at 1.1 mil. Add next year's rookie at a similar price, if they don't trade him. 67-68 mil, 8 players.

    After that, they have no guaranteed salaries. Am i missing something, how are they forced to go into tax? It's completely up to them. If they want to go there, they can. If not, there's no need to. To me, that's not a situation where you have to sacrifice James Harden.
    Minimum roster size is 13, so yes they have to pay more than 8 players. Even if they're unguaranteed initially, they will eventually show up on the salary cap.

    Plus that's assuming that OKC is willing to enter a season with a bench primarily made of minimum level players. In your scenario, OKC's core 8 includes Perry Jones and another rookie, players who shouldn't be expected to contribute to a contender.

    Is it a situation that they shouldn't sacrifice Harden? Again, it all depends on how much tax they're willing to pay (and for how long). Long term, I just can't see any way for them to keep the 4 expensive players (Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka) together. Sure they might do so for 1 or 2 more years, but it's going to cost them tax each year.

  29. #4225

    Default Re: Off season Rumors and Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Yeah, the ones with 80M in salary.
    and what if there's a smart team that instead of paying DWill+Joe Johnson+Gerald Wallace+Humphries+Brook Lopez 72 mil, manages to build a far better core of Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Ibaka-Collison for 60 mil?
    Are they in some disadvantage which forces them to break up the core and add more expensive end of bench players than the Nets?

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Minimum roster size is 13, so yes they have to pay more than 8 players. Even if they're unguaranteed initially, they will eventually show up on the salary cap.

    Plus that's assuming that OKC is willing to enter a season with a bench primarily made of minimum level players. In your scenario, OKC's core 8 includes Perry Jones and another rookie, players who shouldn't be expected to contribute to a contender.

    Is it a situation that they shouldn't sacrifice Harden? Again, it all depends on how much tax they're willing to pay (and for how long). Long term, I just can't see any way for them to keep the 4 expensive players (Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka) together. Sure they might do so for 1 or 2 more years, but it's going to cost them tax each year.
    there's no perfect situation. They have to choose, Harden or a bunch of mediocre role players.
    What you guys are saying, is that it's better to let Harden go than finish out the roster with cheap players. Which just makes no sense to me, neither from basketball perspective, nor from assets perspective.
    I doubt you guys would say the same if the Pacers were in a similar situation. E.g., lets say George Hill broke out to an All Star level last year, and the Pacers had to choose, pay this new star and sign a cheap backup instead of DJ Augustin, or sign a lot of mediocre guys. To me, it seems like a nobrainer.

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