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Thread: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

  1. #1
    George Hill Apologist mattie's Avatar
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    Default Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    (hint: he's not)

    http://www.hoopsworld.com/what-must-...deron-williams

    Perhaps the hottest storyline heading into 2012 NBA free agency is where will New Jersey Nets point guard Deron Williams go? The supposed early leader for his services is the Dallas Mavericks, but the problem is a lot of things must happen first because the move from Jersey to Dallas is not straightforward.

    First off, will Williams be a free agent? He has indicated he will decline to invoke his $17.8 million Player Option and become an unrestricted free agent. Williams has not ruled out a return to the Nets, who can still offer him higher annual raises plus an extra year in a new contract. There are other teams, like Portland and New Orleans, who will be in the market for a starting point guard this summer and have maximum money to offer.

    Dallas, on the other hand, does not.

    The Mavericks currently sit at $53.4 million in contracts on the books to eight players for 2012-13. The cap will be at minimum the same as this year Ė $58.044 million. The new collective bargaining agreement matched the 2011-12 and 2012-13 caps to the 2010-11 version. The cap could go up for 2012-13 if Basketball Related Income justifies it, but in a shortened season due to the lockout thatís very, very unlikely. All that means is the Mavs donít have cap space without doing some other things first.If they do nothing, they will only have the Mid-Level Exception to offer Williams or any other free agent.

    Dallas may or may not have a first-round pick this year. They traded their pick to the Los Angeles Lakers for Lamar Odom back in December and that pick moved on to the Houston Rockets at the trade deadline in the Derek Fisher deal. However, itís top-20 protected through 2017, meaning if Dallas doesnít have one of the 10 best records in the NBA this year, they keep the pick. Heading into Fridayís games they sat at 11th, just several percentage points behind the Memphis Grizzlies. If the Mavericks do keep that pick and it ends up 20th overall in the 2012 NBA Draft, a cap hold of $1.1 million would be placed upon them. As far as second-round picks go, Dallas owns the Lakersí pick from the Odom trade. Their own pick is in Washington, and they also have rights to Minnesotaís and Washingtonís but both are top-55 protected (meaning Dallas will never see them). The second-round pick will place a cap hold on the Mavericks equal to the minimum salary for a rookie, which will be $473,604. (This is the same cap hold added for each open roster spot under 13.)

    By waiving Lamar Odom, Vince Carter and Brandan Wright the Mavericks could reduce the amount owed to them to only $4.4 million, down from the $12.2 million they are on the books for. Odomís contract is guaranteed for only $2.4 million of $8.2 million for 2012-13 if he is waived by June 30, 2012. Vince Carterís is only guaranteed for $2.0 million of $3.1 million if waived by the same date (and $2.0 million of $3.3 million in 2013-14). Wrightís $0.9 million is fully non-guaranteed. If Carter is not waived by June 30th, both seasons left on his contract become guaranteed.

    Thatís not all. The Mavericks also have $33.2 million in cap holds that will count against them until they either renounce their rights to the player or the player signs with another team. Click this link to see the full list, but the ones that stand out are the $12.9 million cap hold on Jason Kidd and $16.0 million on Jason Terry.

    Whew.

    If the Mavericks want to go after Deron Williams, they need to go all-in and clear as much space as they can. Technically the Nets could do a sign-and-trade with Williams to Dallas, but the fact of the matter is the Mavericks, outside of Roddy Beaubois, probably donít have too much of interest to Jersey. The Nets would probably be more interested in doing a sign-and-trade (and giving Williams his higher raise and another year Note: New CBA limits sign-and-trades to four years and 4.5% raises) if the Mavs clear the cap space anyway, doing the deal simply for draft picks and a Traded Player Exception (if it were to come to that).

    For this, letís assume the Mavericks donít keep their first-round pick this year and waive Odom, Carter and Wright to maximize their cap space. Letís also assume they renounce their rights to all their free agents, including Kidd and Terry. Where does that put them? It only moves them down to $45.6 million in commitments to five players. Add eight minimum salary cap holds (totaling $3.8 million) and the Mavs will be sitting at $49.4 million. Thatís only $8.9 million in cap space. Williams, a three-time All-Star with career averages of 17.6 points, 9.2 assists and 1.1 steals per game, will cost more than that. More as in max money, which means a deal starting at $16.3 million per season (again, assuming the cap does not go up for 2012-13).

    Yes, Williams could sign for less than max money, but he wonít sign for less than half his market value. With Portland gleefully waiving a max deal, Williams would have to really, really want to go to Dallas to choose them instead. Frankly, history says that doesnít happen very often at all, and definitely not to that extent.

    The Mavs have one more thing they will have to do in order to clear enough cap space to sign Deron Williams and thatís use their Amnesty Provision. Only three players match the profile of how much the Mavs would have to clear: Dirk Nowitzki ($20.9 million), Shawn Marion ($8.4 million) and Brendan Haywood ($8.3 million). No, itís not going to be Dirk; that leaves Marion or Haywood. Both are starters and primarily defensive players, so how do you choose which one gets cut? Haywood is a year younger, but his contract runs two years longer than Marionís (through 2015-16 as opposed to through 2013-14), meaning thatís a larger check owner Mark Cuban has to write immediately (by about $9.8 million Ė the last season of his deal is not guaranteed if waived by 8/1/15).

    Do they choose to amnesty their center and hope they can find serviceable big men to play defense and rebound in the middle? Or do they decide their small forward is easier to replace? For this exercise letís say they choose Haywood. That replaces his $8.3 million with another minimum salary cap hold, putting them at $37.2 million in commitments plus $4.3 million in cap holds, leaving them at $41.5 million.

    Voila! Enough cap room to sign Williams to a maximum contract.

    But now how do the Mavericks fill out their roster? They have Nowitzki, Williams and Marion, plus two rookie scale deals to Dominique Jones and Roddy Beaubois. They will have about $2 million in cap space (if Williams were to sign for less than the max, the difference would be added to this $2 million to be used for other free agents), then when they use that up they will have the $2.5 million ďroom exception.Ē The room exception is new with the latest CBA and gives teams who maximize their cap space and then spend it all a little something extra to help fill out their roster.

    With those two chunks of change, the Mavs will need to find a starting center, a backup center, a backup power forward, another guard and a backup small forward, plus a couple other players to fill out the bench. Unfortunately there really arenít a lot of options at center. The top centers in the free agent class Ė Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert, Chris Kaman, JaVale McGee Ė will cost much more than the Mavericks can afford. Could they entice Marcus Camby for that price? Nazr Mohammed? Kwame Brown? Aaron Gray? Unfortunately, thatís the caliber of player they will be able to afford.

    This begs the question: Is it worth it? Is ripping the team down to the studs Ė metaphorically Ė worth it in order to sign Williams? With Nowitzkiís $20.9 million salary, the Mavericks are limited in what they are going to be able to do to fill out the roster. Is a team built around Williams, Nowitzki, Marion, Beaubois and Jones a good team in the Western Conference? Or will it become stuck in mediocrity, unable to surround the two stars with a good enough supporting cast to once again become a contender?

    Those are questions the Dallas Mavericksí management structure must answer for themselves before they commit to going down this path.

    Is pursuing Deron Williams the best move for Dallas? Leave your thoughts in the comments below! Hit up Jason Fleming on Twitter @jfleminghoops and drop in for his chat Monday at 8pm Eastern.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    If I was Dallas it would be worth it, it's not like they are going anywhere with the current roster, if you can get Deron, you do it, damn the costs...

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    wow, that was a whole lot of writing to say absolutely nothing at all...

    I loved the part where the writer called brendan Haywood "a defensive center," and questioned why dallas would ever consider cutting him loose....

    Basically, the writer thinks that Dallas won't want to jettison everyone on their team besides dirk, marion and boubois to get Deron Williams.

    You know, because Miami didn't do this exact same thing with their roster 2 years ago....

    This is a really absurd article. You could build a good team around Dirk and Deron with minimal effort.
    Last edited by Kstat; 04-10-2012 at 07:11 AM.

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    And remember that Dallas got Tyson Chandler for peanuts before last season. Strong starters and role players aren't difficult to get in this league, it's the superstars that are a rarity. If you can get two superstars on a team then filling the gaps isn't difficult to do especially with a smart front office like Dallas.

  6. #5
    Remember #31 dohman's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    Hmmm. His mom sure thinks he is going to be here next year. Do not quote me as a source but its been said time and time again here that her baby is coming home.

    The Colony is not a large town and my wife's family lives there and grew up there. I live about 10 minutes and its believed to be pretty common knowledge that he wants to be home and wants to play for Dallas.

    I don't usually go out on a limb with these types of posts but mark my words he will be in a mavericks uniform next year. Cuban will spend, end of story.

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    I have been expecting the Mavs to get him since Howard was an idiot and stayed with Orlando. The Mavs are the type of team (eh hem Miami, New York, LAC) to gut their roster for a player. Cuban will spend no matter what. He'll be in Dallas, although I hope he goes to Portland or here.
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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    It is okay for Dallas to blow up the roster just to get Deron. With Dirk and Deron, the Mavs can attract veteran role-players to get championships. I wouldn't be surprised to see some well-known veterans accepting salaries way below expected just to join forces with that team.

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    I didn't think it was that likely that he would sign with Dallas but after reading this, I think it's pretty much a lock.

    In fact, I think it's the main reason they decided not to re-sign Tyson Chandler and JJ Berea. Between Shawn Marion and Haywood, I think they'll use the Amnesty on Marion because it's a lot easier to get a defensive SF than a Center and Marion only has the one year remaining. Plus Marion is basically washed up anyway.

    Oh well. The Pacers will still have a shot at Steve Nash and it'll cost them less money too.

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    At first glance I thought it was a bit extreme for Dallas to blow up most of the roster to get him, but when I considered the age of that deep veteran roster, it actually makes a lot of sense (assuming Dirk doesn't drop off from older age too quickly to enjoy this new era with Williams).

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    Quote Originally Posted by naptownmenace View Post
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    I didn't think it was that likely that he would sign with Dallas but after reading this, I think it's pretty much a lock.

    In fact, I think it's the main reason they decided not to re-sign Tyson Chandler and JJ Berea. Between Shawn Marion and Haywood, I think they'll use the Amnesty on Marion because it's a lot easier to get a defensive SF than a Center and Marion only has the one year remaining. Plus Marion is basically washed up anyway.

    Oh well. The Pacers will still have a shot at Steve Nash and it'll cost them less money too.
    That is exactly the reason they didn't resign their guys which is sort of stupid IMO. They won the championship with a complete roster and now they will be like the Knicks. Good but I can't see them winning a championship with 2 stars and nobody else. Sooner or later Dirk will decline as well and then what.

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    Quote Originally Posted by Gamble1 View Post
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    That is exactly the reason they didn't resign their guys which is sort of stupid IMO. They won the championship with a complete roster and now they will be like the Knicks. Good but I can't see them winning a championship with 2 stars and nobody else. Sooner or later Dirk will decline as well and then what.
    Your guess is as good as mine. That doesn't mean that it's any less likely he chooses Dallas over anyone else.

    I want Deron Williams on the Pacers. I'm sure the Pacers will make a run at him too. I just realize that Dallas is in the driver's seat.

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    Quote Originally Posted by naptownmenace View Post
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    Your guess is as good as mine. That doesn't mean that it's any less likely he chooses Dallas over anyone else.

    I want Deron Williams on the Pacers. I'm sure the Pacers will make a run at him too. I just realize that Dallas is in the driver's seat.
    I agree! After reading this thread I think he goes to Dallas. I think his second choice will be to remain with the Nets. However, I think if he wants to contend immediately he will give the Pacers a lot of consideration.

    If he stays with the Nets, contending will be a few years off. Dallas will have to reload. Portland would be a viable choice except they have no center. To me that leaves the Pacers as the best option if he wants to contend right away.

    However, from what I've read his mother is saying, I think he's going home. Of course that doesn't mean Williams wants to deal with his family all the time, so I think we could be an option.

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    I think Dallas would have to show him a good plan. Cuz they would basically have a gutted roster, and would be starting completely fresh. If perhaps they could jettison either Marion or Haywood for a first round pick instead of amnestieing them, they may have a shot to build while filling in with veterans.

    But D-Will publicly doesn't seem to mind where he is as long as the team is winning. If the Mavericks can convince him they can build a completely new roster from the ground up and win, they can probably get him. He just doesn't have his "list of preferred destinations" superstars tend to have these days, at least not publicly.

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    So what's going to happen to the Nets after he leaves? they are going to get screwed big time.

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    So what's going to happen to the Nets after he leaves? they are going to get screwed big time.
    Jay-Z will be the starting PF to help fill the seats and pay for the stadium.

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    Quote Originally Posted by The Sleeze View Post
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    Jay-Z will be the starting PF to help fill the seats and pay for the stadium.
    I would watch Beyonce as the point guard

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    So what's going to happen to the Nets after he leaves? they are going to get screwed big time.
    No worry they already got their consolation prize : Gerald Wallace

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    So what's going to happen to the Nets after he leaves? they are going to get screwed big time.
    I bet the owner goes after the next big FA's. Maybe EJ or OJ and I could see them going after Nash and possibly trying to sign Beasley.

  23. #19

    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    If Brendan Haywood is your obstacle, you don't have an obstacle. Hell, they shed Chandler to position for Deron. C'mon now.

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    Quote Originally Posted by aamcguy View Post
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    But D-Will publicly doesn't seem to mind where he is as long as the team is winning. If the Mavericks can convince him they can build a completely new roster from the ground up and win, they can probably get him. He just doesn't have his "list of preferred destinations" superstars tend to have these days, at least not publicly.
    One of the reasons why I think Dallas is NOT a sure thing.

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I would watch Beyonce as the point guard
    she can guard my point any day

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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    So what's going to happen to the Nets after he leaves? they are going to get screwed big time.
    Assuming that DWill and Gerald Wallace leave....before re-signing Brook Lopez....they will have roughly $13 mil in guaranteed salary. I'm guessing that they will have space to make a run at 2 MAX or 1 MAX and 2 near MAX level contracts to play in Brooklyn. It would take time....but if they do it right....they can essentially re-tool on the fly and be Playoff bound in a year....IF they play their cards right.
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    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    I think it's a done deal already.

  28. #24

    Default Re: Why it's so absurd to think Deron Williams will end up in Dallas

    Quote Originally Posted by naptownmenace View Post
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    Oh well. The Pacers will still have a shot at Steve Nash and it'll cost them less money too.
    My thoughts exactly. We should obviously at least make Deron an offer, but Nash is a much more realistic option.

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