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Thread: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

  1. #1
    White and Nerdy Anthem's Avatar
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    Default Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Our “Magic Number” is the number of Indy wins or other team’s losses that are required to secure a specific playoff spot.

    I don’t see any way that we can catch Chicago and Miami, or be caught by the sub-500 teams New York, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Toronto, Detroit, New Jersey, Washington, and Charlotte. That leaves Indy in a group of 5 teams: Orlando, Atlanta, Indiana, Philadelphia, and Boston.

    Here’s what we’ve got after tonight, then:

    Team – (W-L) – Games Remaining

    Orlando – (31-18) – 17
    Atlanta – (29-20) – 17
    Indiana – (28-19) – 19
    Philadelphia – (27-21) – 18
    Boston – (25-22) – 19

    The highest number of wins Boston can get is their current win total (25) plus their games remaining (19). That gives 44, and the Pacers would have to get 45 wins to top them (I don’t count tiebreakers until the final weeks). The Pacers currently have 28 wins, and so they need a combination of 45-28=17 Pacer wins or Celtic losses to ensure the Pacers end up with a better record than the Celts. With that methodology, then, the magic numbers are as follows.

    With 19 games remaining,
    Orlando – 21
    Atlanta – 19
    Philadelphia – 18
    Boston – 17

    I'll be updating this every night for the rest of the season. Generally I'll just eyeball the scoreboard and update from there, but once a week or so I'll re-run the numbers from the standings just to make sure I haven't drifted.

    In the meantime, let's hope for many losses for Orlando, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Boston. The Pacers have 19 games remaining, so all of these teams are well within our reach considering our supposed cakewalk schedule to end the season.
    Last edited by Anthem; 03-24-2012 at 11:20 PM.
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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Hey Anthem, not sure if you have ATL above us cause they have more wins but technically we are above them right now in the standings since we actually have a better win pct. Just a heads up.

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    I always enjoy these threads, thank you for posting (and thank you for the Pacers for making threads like this relevant again)

    One question, I may be an idiot but I cannot follow what this line means: That Indy in a group of 5 teams: Orlando, Atlanta, Indiana, Philadelphia, and Boston.

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by vapacersfan View Post
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    One question, I may be an idiot but I cannot follow what this line means: That Indy in a group of 5 teams: Orlando, Atlanta, Indiana, Philadelphia, and Boston.
    My bad. The missing word there is "leaves." As in there are 2 teams we can't catch and 8 teams that can't catch us. 15 Eastern conference teams, minus those 10, leaves us as one of 5 teams.
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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by Hibbert View Post
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    Hey Anthem, not sure if you have ATL above us cause they have more wins
    Yup.

    But they have fewer games remaining (like you said, they have a lower winning percentage), so their magic number isn't that high. When doing these calculations, though, the number of wins is the key stat. It'll all even out by the end.
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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    So basically I am just an idiot

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by vapacersfan View Post
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    So basically I am just an idiot
    No, I edited the post.
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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Hopefully we can end up with at least the 4th/5th seed. 4th/5th, because Philly has to get the at least a 4th if they win their division. Right now we are the 6th seed and would have to play the Magic. I don't like that matchup with them having home court. Luckly our schedule the rest of the way looks to play out pretty good for us. If we just win the games against teams with losing records we will win another 11 games. Without looking at everyone else's remaining schedule that should move us up a few spots in the standings. So, as long as we take care of buisness and win the games we should we will be in great shape to start the playoffs.

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    We've already guaranteed that we finish above Charlotte! Woo hoo!

    Also the magic number is 3 for above Washington, 5 for above New Jersey, 6 for above Toronto, 7 for above Detroit, 11 for above Cleveland, 13 for above Milwaukee, 14 for above New York, 28 for above Chicago and Miami.

    I was curious to see the other magic numbers. I think we'll wrap up the playoff spot pretty damn soon.
    Last edited by PacersHomer; 03-25-2012 at 02:11 AM.

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Ok, here's the results of Sunday, March 25th.

    Atlanta won (in quadruple OT), Boston won, Philly lost, Orlando and Indy didn't play.

    Orlando – 21
    Atlanta – 19
    Philadelphia – 17
    Boston – 17
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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    This is great stuff, thanks Anthem.

    This will most certainly improve the quality of my work from now until the playoffs, I won't be sitting at the office every day figuring this out

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    Ok, here's the results of Sunday, March 25th.

    Atlanta won (in quadruple OT), Boston won, Philly lost, Orlando and Indy didn't play.

    Orlando Ė 21
    Atlanta Ė 19
    Philadelphia Ė 17
    Boston Ė 17
    So Pacers should be above 3 of the these 4 teams to have 1st round home court advantage.

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by Derek2k3 View Post
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    This is great stuff, thanks Anthem.

    This will most certainly improve the quality of my work from now until the playoffs, I won't be sitting at the office every day figuring this out
    Anthem Enterprises: Increasing Your Productivity Since (I had to actually go look it up) 2005.

    2011
    2010
    2009
    2008
    2007
    2006
    2005

    That's crazy. Look at that 2005 thread... it's got a 4-digit thread number. Right now we're in the 70k range.
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    PROUD 2 B A PACERS FAN! xtacy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    thanks anthem for putting your effort into this.

    i hope we get 4 or 5th seed and play sixers. i sure don't want to play magic.

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Atlanta is the one to watch. With the Atlantic division winner (either Philly or Boston) guaranteed the 4 seed, the Hawks and Pacers are basically fighting for the 5 and 6 seeds between them. The difference between 5 and 6 is huge - with the 5th seed you probably have homecourt against a weaker team, with the 6th seed you're facing Dwight Howard. Unfortunately, Atlanta seems to have the easier remaining schedule, and the Hawks going 3-0 in their recent b2b2b didn't do us any favors either.

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by xtacy View Post
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    thanks anthem for putting your effort into this.

    i hope we get 4 or 5th seed and play sixers. i sure don't want to play magic.
    Really the only scenario where the Pacers play Orlando is if Orlando stays the 3 seed, and Indiana falls to the 6th seed, which is about what it's at right now. (Indy/Atlanta are tied for 5th atm) The Philly/Boston winner of the division is most likely going to be 4, and the loser is most likely going to be 7.
    "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

    ----------------- Reggie Miller

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Pacers win! Everybody's Magic Number goes down by one!

    Which is good, because Boston won, Orlando won, and Philly / Atlanta didn't play.

    I'll take it! I had this predicted as a loss.

    Orlando – 20
    Atlanta – 18
    Philadelphia – 16
    Boston – 16
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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    The Bulls lost, right?

    Maybe Miami will slide to a 3, and the Pacers can steal a 2. Haha.

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Atlanta loses to the Bucks tonight. Gives us a tiny bit of breathing room

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Philly won, Atlanta lost, Orlando and Boston didn't play.

    Orlando – 20
    Atlanta – 17
    Philadelphia – 16
    Boston – 16
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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    If one put how many games left still, one can get how much chance Pacers have to be the 3rd or the 7th seeds.

    Sorry, I am too lazy to look it up.

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Man, a win would have been nice tonight. Orlando lost, Atlanta lost, Boston won, Philly didn't play.

    With 17 games remaining:

    Orlando – 19
    Atlanta – 16
    Philadelphia – 16
    Boston – 16
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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Indy won, nobody else played. Sixteen games to go.

    Orlando – 18
    Atlanta – 15
    Philadelphia – 15
    Boston – 15
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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Atlanta is the one to watch. With the Atlantic division winner (either Philly or Boston) guaranteed the 4 seed, the Hawks and Pacers are basically fighting for the 5 and 6 seeds between them. The difference between 5 and 6 is huge - with the 5th seed you probably have homecourt against a weaker team, with the 6th seed you're facing Dwight Howard. Unfortunately, Atlanta seems to have the easier remaining schedule, and the Hawks going 3-0 in their recent b2b2b didn't do us any favors either.
    Atlanta is looking scarier all the time, in spite of losing the last 2. They have 14 games left and 6 of those games are against Toronto, Detroit and Charlotte. Ugh.

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    Default Re: Anthemís Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by cinotimz View Post
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    Atlanta is looking scarier all the time, in spite of losing the last 2. They have 14 games left and 6 of those games are against Toronto, Detroit and Charlotte. Ugh.
    We still have a pretty easy schedule, too. We have Was, Det, Tor, 2 Cle, 2 Mil, Min without Rubio now...

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