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Thread: Paul George goes nuts for steals

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Paul George goes nuts for steals

    xBulletproof mentioned this in another thread but I'd been thinking it deserved it's own discussion since the jump is so significant.

    Right now I can't post the graphs (I'll add later), but his per game average (the running average) and per 36 min average have been trending up all season.

    Specifically starting with the 5 steals game vs DAL he went from hovering around 1.10-1.20 per game and 1.30-1.40 per 36 minutes to his current level of 1.78 per game and 2.09 per 36. It's a noticeable slope and represents a period well above his career average prior to this climb.

    What is facilitating that climb is a 19 game stretch where he has averaged 2.47/gm and 2.88/36min!

    But even on top of that he's managed to pick up the pace a 2nd time. In the last 7 games he's averaged a MONSTER 3.43 per game and 4.26 per 36 minutes.

    10 of the last 19 games are 3+ steals games for him.


    Here are the seasons leaders in STL/Gm
    2.54 Conley
    2.31 C Paul
    2.22 Rubio
    1.88 Iguodala (SF)
    1.86 Shumpart
    1.82 K Lowry
    1.80 Lebron (SF)
    1.79 T Allen (SG)
    1.78 GEORGE

    3 SF/SGs ahead of him and we all know that Allen is not the same size/type of SG as Paul. Only Iggy and Lebron fit as true big wings like Paul. The others spend most of their time defending the dribble.

    STL/36 (15 minutes or more played, everyone here is at least 23mpg)

    2.54 Conley
    2.42 T Allen
    2.38 Shumpart
    2.33 Rubio
    2.28 C Paul
    2.07 K Leonard (this is why you didn't need him, you have George)
    2.03 GEORGE (slight rounding errors in minutes played)

    Only small guards ahead of him here except for the rookie Kawhi, and Kawhi is the lowest in mpg on the list (23, next lowest is 26)

    Now go back and look at the last 19 and 7 numbers:

    Leader is Paul at 2.54
    George at 2.47
    George is at 3.43

    Leader is Conley at 2.54
    George is at 2.88
    George is at 4.26


    Admittedly I need to go look at the last 7/19 for these other guys, or look for their best 7 or 19 game streaks period. Maybe this is the norm. Maybe Conley has 3 steals in 10 out of 19 games all the time. But it seems likely to me that RIGHT NOW Paul George is the best steals defender in the league.

    No one is reading the defensive end at his level.

    And those last 7 games INCLUDE the games @CHI, ATL, @MIA and @ORL. This isn't getting fat on chumps, this is doing it to everyone.

    If Paul continues either of these paces for the final 26 games you get these per game totals...

    19 game pace = 2.05 to end season
    7 game pace = 2.43 to end season

    He could end up being top 3-4 in steals in the league, and maybe even #1 in qualified minutes steals per 36.



    btw, take a look at the blocks numbers for all those steals leaders. Lebron is at 0.9, T Allen is at 0.6, Iggy is at 0.5

    Paul is at 0.6

    All the other guards are 0.2 or 0.1 guys.

    Paul likely will get named to one of the all-defensive teams this year I suspect.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 03-14-2012 at 01:32 PM.

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    Default Re: Paul George goes nuts for steals

    This year? Man that'd be something I guess I don't see him beating some of the more established perimeter names. I mean in all likelihood Wade and Lebron will gobble up two spots just for themselves.

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    Default Re: Paul George goes nuts for steals

    My only concern is that our defense is better when we focus on defending the play rather than trying for the steal. When we miss the steal there's no one available to help (or the help leaves another man open leading to an easy shot).
    BillS

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    Default Re: Paul George goes nuts for steals

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    My only concern is that our defense is better when we focus on defending the play rather than trying for the steal. When we miss the steal there's no one available to help (or the help leaves another man open leading to an easy shot).
    Right. Because sometimes getting a lot of steals can be an indication of poor fundamental defense. (AKA, Reddick absolutely slaughtered George the first quarter of the game. Although that might have had more to do with PG not being as great at defending around screens.)

    That said, I find that usually PG's steals come from when he's defending someone with the ball, not playing the passing lanes, and thus it's less likely that he'll get beat (as those who play the passing lanes often do) but more likely he'll pick up a few fouls. (Which, if he's named to a defensive team, or..when he's named to a defensive team, he'll probably get the benefit of those calls.)

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    Default Re: Paul George goes nuts for steals

    Quote Originally Posted by Sookie View Post
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    Right. Because sometimes getting a lot of steals can be an indication of poor fundamental defense. (AKA, Reddick absolutely slaughtered George the first quarter of the game. Although that might have had more to do with PG not being as great at defending around screens.)

    That said, I find that usually PG's steals come from when he's defending someone with the ball, not playing the passing lanes, and thus it's less likely that he'll get beat (as those who play the passing lanes often do) but more likely he'll pick up a few fouls. (Which, if he's named to a defensive team, or..when he's named to a defensive team, he'll probably get the benefit of those calls.)
    Although I agree with him not being as good defending around screens, the problem with Reddick in that game was not completely George, but Roy Hibbert being way too slow to help. Teams expose Roy's foot speed regularly against us. As soon as Lou comes in, teams take a different approach.

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    Default Re: Paul George goes nuts for steals

    Quote Originally Posted by EmCeE View Post
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    Although I agree with him not being as good defending around screens, the problem with Reddick in that game was not completely George, but Roy Hibbert being way too slow to help. Teams expose Roy's foot speed regularly against us. As soon as Lou comes in, teams take a different approach.
    Oh I agree, Roy and West are terrible at PnR defense. (Tyler's actually gotten better, I think. He at least can trap the ball handler with AJ or Hill pretty well.)

    And Roy, West, and Tyler have a tendency to also get in the way of the poor guard trying to get around the screen.

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    Default Re: Paul George goes nuts for steals

    In conclusion, Paul George is awesome.

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    Default Re: Paul George goes nuts for steals

    Quote Originally Posted by Sookie View Post
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    Oh I agree, Roy and West are terrible at PnR defense. (Tyler's actually gotten better, I think. He at least can trap the ball handler with AJ or Hill pretty well.)

    And Roy, West, and Tyler have a tendency to also get in the way of the poor guard trying to get around the screen.
    This is the biggest reason why I think Hill should be starting over Collison, is because the entire defensive break down on pick and rolls begins with Collison's inability to maneuver over or under screens. The entire defense then is fighting to recover. DC also cannot be left to cover the rolling big, which kills his effectiveness in trying to avoid getting bodied by the screener. Hill is a much better PnR defender, which doesn't expose our bigs nearly as much.
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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Paul George goes nuts for steals

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    This year? Man that'd be something I guess I don't see him beating some of the more established perimeter names. I mean in all likelihood Wade and Lebron will gobble up two spots just for themselves.
    I believe there are still 3 teams, 1st, 2nd and 3rd. So 3rd team all-defense is what I'm thinking, maybe 2nd.



    In conclusion, Paul George is awesome.
    Pretty much. My theory on him is that of the last 5 weeks or so he's started hitting the "95%" mark on greatness. Meaning that he's making amazing all-star caliber plays to about 95% completion. They are brilliant moves or reads but come up just a tiny bit short at times which keeps him from being "the man".

    He's less inconsistent and more "just not quite there" which is a very natural career progression. I think he is on the cusp of my theoretical "click" moment where a guy makes a play or set of plays that removes the doubts that he belongs. From that moment on a guy just starts rolling.

    My go-to example is Harrington putting a spin more on at-the-time all-star Abdur-Rahim. He stopped being a shy kid on the court who deferred to being a guy who abused people with a nasty spin move...prior to the knee injury at least.

    Also, obviously Roy is still lacking this moment. He may have had good nights, but he hasn't had that thought or feeling that removed all doubts in his ability.


    But Paul is really close. He's already making 3-5 of the best plays in a game every night.

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    Default Re: Paul George goes nuts for steals

    Quote Originally Posted by Sookie View Post
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    Right. Because sometimes getting a lot of steals can be an indication of poor fundamental defense. (AKA, Reddick absolutely slaughtered George the first quarter of the game. Although that might have had more to do with PG not being as great at defending around screens.)

    That said, I find that usually PG's steals come from when he's defending someone with the ball, not playing the passing lanes, and thus it's less likely that he'll get beat (as those who play the passing lanes often do) but more likely he'll pick up a few fouls. (Which, if he's named to a defensive team, or..when he's named to a defensive team, he'll probably get the benefit of those calls.)
    Paul isn't playing the passing lanes. Paul is READING the developing passing lane and getting there before the pass does. He had one vs the Blazers that he blatantly saw what was about to happen and reacted before any other player on the court did. The result was a "bad pass" that went right to him.

    This is a guy who's starting to dial in his awareness of the game, a guy getting used to the flow of an NBA game, and pairing that with the ability to do something about it.

    His defense is far more Gerald Wallace and far less Iverson (horrible gambler). Paul doesn't have to gamble to have a shot at the play, he's good enough to see it coming and just do what needs to be done without sacrificing his own responsibility in a blind hope that maybe something will be there for him to get.


    Example 2 - the Miami game when he just went straight up and destroyed Wade's pass toward the rim.


    And tons of others where he tips the ball away from someone else's man while guarding his own.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 03-15-2012 at 11:34 AM.

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    Default Re: Paul George goes nuts for steals

    There are only 2 Defensive teams.

    There are 3 All NBA teams though. Probably just got those 2 switched in your head. I see no way he makes an All Defensive team this year.

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    Default Re: Paul George goes nuts for steals

    Quote Originally Posted by xBulletproof View Post
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    There are only 2 Defensive teams.

    There are 3 All NBA teams though. Probably just got those 2 switched in your head. I see no way he makes an All Defensive team this year.
    Why? Who's gonna beat him out? Kobe and Wade are both candidates, but he could easily get in above them...

    If Tony Allen could last year, then Paul could

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Paul George goes nuts for steals

    If Paul continues either of these paces for the final 26 games you get these per game totals...

    19 game pace = 2.05 to end season
    7 game pace = 2.43 to end season

    He could end up being top 3-4 in steals in the league, and maybe even #1 in qualified minutes steals per 36.
    With 1 game to go Paul is now at:

    He was at:
    Per game
    1.78

    Ended:
    Per Game
    1.63

    Per 36
    1.97

    So he actually failed to improve from where he was when I posted this. Basically IMMEDIATELY after this thread was started he went into a massive steals slump where he only had 2 games of 4 steals and 2 games of 3 steals out of 20 total games. A majority were either 0-1 steal games and that killed his climb up the charts.

    He has suddenly salvaged things in the last 4 games - 4, 3, 2, 3

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