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Thread: Reach in 2012 or wait until 2013

  1. #1
    BoilerUpMan Really?'s Avatar
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    Default Reach in 2012 or wait until 2013

    This is a pretty interesting article to think about when assessing what the Colts should do in the draft and where a reach might not be the best idea, I know early predictions do not always turn out to be what people think at the end of the year, but typically the top-top guys don't fall too much if at all.

    Big Picture: 2012 and 2013 Draft

    By Mike Daneshgar
    March 8th, 2012 at 10:30 pm

    When looking at any draft, it is important to grasp the big picture. Not only should the positional depth of the current draft be looked at, but that of the next yearís draft as well. If there are 5 players of equal talent available at a position, why choose one when you can trade down, pick up additional draft choices, and end up with a player whom you would have taken at the earlier draft slot? Or, worst case scenario Ė pull a Minnesota and donít turn in your card.

    Every fan wants to fix their team in one offseason. As nice as that would be, itís just not realistic. Two teams that have consistently won over the past decade are the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles Ė and itís no coincidence that they both are known to maneuver quite a bit on draft day to acquire future picks. That long term approach increases the odds that they win the crapshoot that is the NFL Draft. Most importantly, it takes into account positional strengths of current drafts and compares them to that of the following draft. Big picture, folks!

    Which leads me to the point of this article Ė how does the talent of the 2012 NFL Draft line up to that of which we COULD see in 2013? Iím glad you asked.

    Here are the combined top prospects at each position. Iím not a big fan of numerically ranking players because so much depends on team scheme and whether you prefer taking a chance at upside or going with a safe choice. As a result, Iíve broken it up into tiers. Tiers of joy.

    (2012 NFL Draft prospects are identified with an asterisk)


    Tier 1

    *Andrew Luck, Stanford

    Tier 2
    *Robert Griffin III, Baylor
    Matt Barkley, USC

    Tier 3
    Tyler Bray, Tennessee
    *Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
    Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
    Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
    Geno Smith, West Virginia
    *Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State

    Tier 4
    Keith Price, Washington
    *Brock Osweiler, Arizona State
    E.J. Manuel, Florida State

    Translation: 2012 was supposed to be the year of the quarterback, but with Matt Barkley returning itís shaping up so that 2013 is that year. Granted, there will be no Andrew Luck next season, there are quite a few players who could shoot up boards with impressive final years. In other words, if you canít get Andrew Luck or RG3, thereís no need to panic and reach for the next best quarterback.

    Running Back

    Tier 1
    *Trent Richardson, Alabama
    Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
    Michael Dyer, Auburn

    Tier 2
    Giovani Bernard, North Carolina
    *David Wilson, Virginia Tech
    *Lamar Miller, Miami
    *Doug Martin, Boise State
    Knile Davis, Arkansas

    Tier 3
    LeíVeon Bell, Michigan State
    Montee Ball, Wisconsin
    Ray Graham, Pittsburgh
    *Robert Turbin, Utah State
    *Chris Polk, Washington
    Zach Stacy, Vanderbilt

    Translation: 2013 could end up as one of the best running back groups ever Ė which makes Montee Ball returning all the more confusing. After Tier 2, you may just be better off waiting for next year or picking up a rental. If there were a Tier 4, it would be comprised of several more prospects not in the 2012 draft, with so many of them just seething with potential but not thick enough resumes to include in this list.

    Wide Receiver

    Tier 1
    Robert Woods, USC
    *Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
    Keenan Allen, California
    Marquess Wilson, Washington State

    Tier 2
    *Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
    *Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina
    Justin Hunter, Tennessee
    DaíRick Rogers, Tennessee
    *Kendall Wright, Baylor
    Cobi Hamilton, Arkansas
    Kenny Stills, Oklahoma

    Translation: Are you sure that you want to take Justin Blackmon top 5? The college level is completely loaded at the WR position, donít feel the need to reach for one in 2012.

    Tight End

    Tier 1
    *Dwayne Allen, Clemson
    Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
    *Coby Fleener, Stanford
    *Orson Charles, Georgia
    Joseph Fauria, UCLA
    Philip Lutzenkurchen, Auburn

    Tier 2
    *Michael Egnew, Missouri
    Jordan Reed, Florida
    Jake Stoneburner, Ohio State
    Chris Gragg, Arkansas
    *Ladarius Green, ULL

    Translation: 2012 has an edge in the Joker TE/WR department, but severely lacks at the in-line blocking category. Rather than taking on a project of trying to mold a Joker into a blocker, you may just be better off waiting for one of the guys in 2013.

    Offensive Tackle

    Tier 1
    *Matt Kalil, USC

    Tier 2
    *Riley Reiff, Iowa
    *Jonathan Martin, Stanford
    Barrett Jones, Alabama
    Seantrel Henderson, Miami
    Jake Matthews, Texas A&M
    D.J. Fluker, Alabama
    Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
    Chris Faulk, LSU
    Chaz Green, Florida

    Translation: After the big 3 (Kalil, Reiff, and Martin) there is no need to reach for a tackle if that is what your team needs. Iím looking at you, NFL team considering drafting Mike Adams in the top 20.

    Interior Offensive Linemen

    Tier 1
    *David DeCastro, Stanford
    Chance Warmack, Alabama

    Tier 2
    *Peter Konz, Wisconsin
    *Cordy Glenn, Georgia
    Andrew Norwell, Ohio State
    James Hurst, UNC
    Omoregie Uzzi, Georgia Tech
    *Brandon Washington, Miami

    Translation: This year and the next are going to be two of the best guard classes ever. If you miss out on stud David DeCastro, there are plenty of consolation prizes to go around.

    4-3 Defensive End

    Tier X
    Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas
    Barkevious Mingo, LSU
    *Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
    Corey Lemonier, Auburn
    *Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
    Sam Montgomery, LSU
    Kareem Martin, UNC
    *Nick Perry, USC

    Tier X.5
    Alex Okafor, Texas
    Dion Jordan, Oregon
    Brandon Jenkins, FSU
    *Chandler Jones, Syracuse

    Translation: Yuck. The 2012 class is so full of question marks that they donít even get to be considered tier 1. On the other hand, the college pool is very talented but lacks the production to justify being called tier 1 either. Thus, tier X and X.5 it is. Still, pass rushers tend to break out in their final years in school, so keep an eye on these guys still in school. If I had to choose, Iíd take my chances on a DE from the 2013 class outshining those of the 2012 class once they are draft eligible.

    3-4 Defensive End

    Tier 1
    *Quinton Coples, UNC
    Dominique Easley, Florida
    Bjoern Werner, FSU
    William Gholston, Michigan State

    Tier 2
    *Devon Still, PSU
    *Jared Crick, Nebraska
    Bennie Logan, LSU
    John Simon, OSU
    *Kendall Reyes, Connecticut
    Margus Hunt, SMU

    Translation: Both classes are solid but the monster potential of having 3 players in tier 1 gives a slight edge to 2013.

    Defensive/Nose Tackle

    Tier 1
    Sharrif Floyd, Florida
    John Hankins, OSU
    *Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State

    Tier 2
    *Michael Brockers, LSU
    *Dontari Poe, Memphis
    Star Lotulelei, Utah
    Kawaan Short, Purdue

    Tier 3
    *Brandon Thompson, Clemson
    Kwame Geathers, Georgia
    *Jerel Worthy, Michigan State

    Translation: This year and next are super loaded at DT. There may not be a Ndamukong Suh standing out just yet, but thereís very good value here in both drafts.

    3-4 Outside Linebacker

    Tier 1
    Jarvis Jones, Georgia
    *Courtney Upshaw, Alabama

    Tier 2
    Sean Porter, Texas A&M
    Ronald Powell, Florida
    Damontre Moore, Texas A&M
    Barkevious Mingo, LSU

    Tier 3
    Chase Thomas, Stanford
    *Shea McClellin, Boise State
    Trevardo Williams, Connecticut
    *Ronnell Lewis, Oklahoma
    Nico Johnson, Alabama
    Roosevelt Nix, Kent State
    *Andre Branch, Clemson
    *Cam Johnson, Virginia

    Translation: This draft seriously needed Jarvis Jones and his pass rushing ability.

    4-3 Outside Linebacker

    Tier 1
    *Zach Brown, UNC
    *Bobby Wagner, Utah State
    Jelani Jenkins, Florida

    Tier 2
    *Lavonte David, Nebraska

    Tier 3
    Arthur Brown, Kansas State
    Khaseem Green, Rutgers
    Dion Bailey, USC
    *Terrell Manning, North Carolina State
    *Sean Spence, Miami
    *Josh Kaddu, Oregon
    Kenny Tate, Maryland

    Translation: Teams that need a 4-3 weakside linebacker are in luck.

    Inside Linebacker

    Tier 1
    *Luke Kuechly, Boston College
    Manti Teío, Notre Dame
    Shayne Skov, Stanford

    Tier 2
    *Dontía Hightower, Alabama
    Andrew Jackson, Western Kentucky
    Tom Wort, Oklahoma
    C.J. Mosley, Alabama
    Kevin Reddick, UNC

    Tier 3
    Bruce Taylor, Virginia Tech
    Dede Lattimore, USF

    Translation: There is a pretty large drop-off at middle linebacker after Kuechly and Hightower. If you miss out on them, your best bet is to wait.


    Tier 1
    *Morris Claiborne, LSU
    David Amerson, North Carolina State

    Tier 2
    *Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama
    *Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
    Xavier Rhodes, FSU

    Tier 3
    *Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina
    *Jayron Hosley, Virginia Tech
    Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State
    Bud Noel, Wake Forest
    Ahmad Dixon, Baylor
    *Brandon Boykin, Georgia

    Tier 4
    *Chase Minnifield, Virginia
    Greg Reid, FSU
    *Leonard Johnson, Iowa State
    Dee Milliner, Alabama
    Tharold Simon, LSU
    *Alfonzo Dennard, Nebraska
    *Josh Robinson, UCF

    Translation: He may be really good, but looking at the big picture taking Morris Claiborne in the top 5 may not be the most thrify move to make.


    Tier 1
    Tyrann Mathieu, LSU
    Lamarcus Joyner, FSU
    Eric Reid, LSU

    Tier 2
    *Mark Barron, Alabama
    Matt Elam, Florida
    T.J. McDonald, USC
    Bacarri Rambo, Georgia
    Robert Lester, Alabama
    Ray-Ray Armstrong, Miami

    Tier 3
    *Harrison Smith, Notre Dame
    Prentiss Wagner, Tennessee
    Kenny Vaccaro, Texas

    Translation: Donít even think about reaching for a Safety this year. Personally, Iím not sure I would take one at all in 2012 as 2013 could be the first strong Safety class in years.

    Follow Mike Daneshgar on Twitter
    Why so SERIOUS

  2. #2
    Stirring the pot _The_Future_'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Reach in 2012 or wait until 2013

    I wouldn't mind getting Damontre Moore or Sean Porter from Texas A&M.
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    ďAnd as I go,I go with just a few words left to say,a few words I want to address to Colts fans everywhere, thank you so much from the bottom of my heart. I truly have enjoyed being your quarterback. Thank you.Ē
    - Peyton Manning

  3. #3
    BoilerUpMan Really?'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Reach in 2012 or wait until 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by _The_Future_ View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I wouldn't mind getting Damontre Moore or Sean Porter from Texas A&M.
    Humm have not seen them play but I definetly think that if the Jerry Hughes, and Robert Mathis thing does not work out we will have to address that position. Have u watched a lot of Texas A&M football, if so what do you think of Jeff Fuller?
    Why so SERIOUS

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