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Thread: The Hammer comes to Philly

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default The Hammer comes to Philly

    In the "Are the Pacers tied for the best record" thread from a few weeks ago we also debated the quality of Philly's wins and the ease of their early schedule. At one point I posted the following...
    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    And when you think about the Pacers sweet April, take a look at Philly.

    First off, they finish with FIVE STRAIGHT road games. Wow, that's fun. The Pacers didn't even have a 5 game road trip this season and only had 1 four game trip, while the Sixers started with a 4, have that 5 at the end of the year, and have another 4 game trip in FEB.


    They get FOUR (4) home games in April, one of which is the Pacers. They get 10 road games, including Indy, Miami, Boston and Orlando.

    March isn't too bad, 9 home vs 7 road, but 3 of the road games are Indy, Chicago and the Spurs.

    But look at the rest of FEB for them - 6 home games vs 8 road games. Okay not too bad. Who are those home games against anyway, just curious.

    Oh, nobody special, just...
    Miami
    Lakers
    Spurs
    Clippers
    Dallas
    OKC


    Seriously, that's insane. Not one bad team in the mix, and this coming off their victory at home vs Chicago.

    That's their HOME games, the ones when they aren't on the 3 and 4 game road trips, the ones when they aren't playing @ATL or @MEM or @HOU. They literally play every single elite team except Denver and Indy.


    Let's see just what that awesome home record looks like at the end of the month.
    So let's recap how this has gone so far for them starting with their final JAN game:

    *vs ORL (win by 5)
    vs CHI (win by 16...but no Rose)
    vs MIA (loss by 20)
    *@ ATL (win by 11)
    *vs LA (win by 5)

    And then reality started to catch up to them, despite still riding out lots of home games, due to the continued quality of opponents.

    vs SA (loss by 10)
    vs LAC (loss 1)

    Then they got what is close to the end of their breaks.

    @ CLE (win by 15)
    @ CHA (win by 9)

    And then back to NBA opponents instead

    @ ORL (loss by 16)
    vs DAL (loss by 7)
    @ MIN (loss by 1)
    @ MEM (loss by 13)

    And they go to Houston tomorrow night.

    After the AS break ends they continue on the road in Detroit, which isn't as bad coming out of the break. But then they get to go home and play OKC.


    And their March HOME games - CHI, BOS, UTH, MIA, NYK, BOS, ATL...their only "light" home games as GS and CLE.

    Road games aren't horrible, but they do go to NYK, Pacers, Spurs, and Chicago for the tougher games. This could put them sub-500 for all of FEB and then also all of March, and still heading into an April that is almost nothing but road games.


    The Hammer appears ready to stop hurting the Pacers and will now turn this mutha out on the Sixers W-L record. Sounds great to me.

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    thx4tehmRys Danny! daschysta's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Yeah Philly has a real fundamental problem with close games. Even compared to someone like us they have no real options to carry them late. Danny, West and Roy would each be their number one option.

    They thrive on beating an opponent early and blowing people out. If teams hang around though they don't have much luck. No playoff basketball imo, we'd be lucky to have a 4-5 matchup with them i'd feel good about moving on.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    But look at the rest of FEB for them - 6 home games vs 8 road games. Okay not too bad. Who are those home games against anyway, just curious.

    Oh, nobody special, just...
    Miami
    Lakers
    Spurs
    Clippers
    Dallas
    OKC
    I wanted to address this one specifically.

    1-4 in their first 5 with OKC to come. Not so nice for the home record. Funny how all those double digit home wins stopped happening.

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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    I honestly feel like the Pacers schedule hasn't been as easy as everyone has made it out to be. It certainly hasn't been the toughest, but that stretch on the road was brutal despite who the opponents were.
    "No one else can see the preservation of the martyr in me" -- Corey Taylor

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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    When does Chicago get its hammer? It seems like they've had a easy @$$ schedule all year...

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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDavisBrothers View Post
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    When does Chicago get its hammer? It seems like they've had a easy @$$ schedule all year...
    They did play 7 of their first 10 on the road, but I don't know if it even matters. I cannot stand the Bulls, but they are good. Their best player goes out, and they just keep rolling.
    "No one else can see the preservation of the martyr in me" -- Corey Taylor

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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDavisBrothers View Post
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    When does Chicago get its hammer? It seems like they've had a easy @$$ schedule all year...
    Chicago's schedule through the end of March:

    MIL
    NO
    @SA
    @CLE
    @PHI
    IND
    @MIL
    ORL
    UTA
    NYK
    MIA
    POR
    PHI
    @ORL
    @TOR
    TOR
    DEN
    @ATL
    DET

    Of those games Orlando, Utah, New York, Miami, Portland, Philly, and @Orlando is a pretty stretch.

    The start of April could also be pretty rough:

    @OKC
    HOU
    BOS
    @NYK
    NYK
    MIA

  10. #8

    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    I think we need to worry about beating out Orlando. Who knows what will happen with Dwigjt but Philly will get home court as they are going to win their division unless something ridiculous happens. If Chicago and Miami take care of business (already streaks ahead) the final spot will be out of us, Orlando and Atlanta. Although it could matter if we can manage to have the better record than the sixers and go 3rd instead of 4th. But still, we still need to beat out the other 2 or we will be 5th regardless.

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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Quote Originally Posted by daschysta View Post
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    Yeah Philly has a real fundamental problem with close games. Even compared to someone like us they have no real options to carry them late. Danny, West and Roy would each be their number one option.

    They thrive on beating an opponent early and blowing people out. If teams hang around though they don't have much luck. No playoff basketball imo, we'd be lucky to have a 4-5 matchup with them i'd feel good about moving on.
    That's y I like these pacers, they grind out wins. A win is a win, they might do it the hard way but at the end of the day it makes them stronger in those situations
    THIS IS THE LAST TIME YOU HEAR MY VOICE , NEXT TIME YOU WILL SEE MY FACE

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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Quote Originally Posted by AusPACER View Post
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    I think we need to worry about beating out Orlando. Who knows what will happen with Dwigjt but Philly will get home court as they are going to win their division unless something ridiculous happens. If Chicago and Miami take care of business (already streaks ahead) the final spot will be out of us, Orlando and Atlanta. Although it could matter if we can manage to have the better record than the sixers and go 3rd instead of 4th. But still, we still need to beat out the other 2 or we will be 5th regardless.
    Division winners don't automatically get home court advantage

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    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDavisBrothers View Post
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    Division winners don't automatically get home court advantage
    Yup, division winners automatically get a top 4 seed, but not necessarily home court. Home court goes to the team with the better record in any matchup.

    http://www.nba.com/features/seedingprimer07.html

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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    This is a team we could possibly end up playing in the playoffs.. Two very solid up and coming teams. Play tough defense and are good rebounders. I respect them, but luckily, we are still a step ahead of them in terms of talent.

    It's all about matchups.

    DC = Jrue
    PG > Meeks
    Danny > Iggy
    West = Brand
    Hibbert > Hawes

    Hill > Lou williams or Evan Turner

    Kobe Jones < Young

    Hans/Foster > Their backup bigs

    I would love to face these guys, we are a lot alike. We are the slightly better team though.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    My view is slightly different...

    DC < Jrue
    PG >> Meeks
    Danny < Iggy
    West > Brand
    Hibbert > Hawes

    Jrue and Iggy are playing better, but not better enough to overcome the pretty strong advantage we have a defensive SG, defensive C and scoring PF. Brand at one point was West like, and West often has low interest in defense, but right now West is 100% back to all-star level scoring ability out of the post.

    He's stepping through double teams and killing fades with equal ease. He gives back a lot of what he gets, but not all of it and not to the same "this demands attention" extent. On offense he's becoming unstoppable at times, while on defense he's just slightly hurting so that it can be overcome with other guys helping out.

    George helping West with Brand = Pacers win (stop or TO)

    Meeks helping Brand out with West = Pacers win (70% scoring rate from West, not including plays coming off of this if he passes)

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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    There's no question that D.C. is having a superior season to Holiday. He's passing the ball more, turning it over less, rebounding better, and he's been far more efficient a scorer than Holiday.

    The obvious cop-out for the D.C. haters will be that he's terrible on defense, whereas Holiday is excellent.

    Unfortunately for those people, the numbers (which are far more reliable than the lame, "wach da gamez!!1!" pseudo-argument) from 82games.com tell a different story: Holiday | Collison

    Yes, according to the data, D.C. has even been better than Holiday on defense this season.

    Anyway, I'd break it down like this:

    Collison > Holiday (see above)

    George > Meeks (George has been somewhat disappointing, but Meeks is one-dimensional)

    Granger < Iguodala (Danny's bread-and-butter, scoring, has been underwhelming, whereas Iggy remains Mr. All-Around Game)

    West = Brand (Both washed-up ex-All-Stars. West is a little more well-rounded, while Brand is superior at the typical PF role [rebounding and blocking shots])

    Hibbert > Hawes (Closer than people realize, as Hawes has been excellent on offense and the glass, but his defensive numbers are appalling, whereas Roy's are quite good.)

    Starters-wise, I think we're clearly better. Where Philly kills us is with their bench.

    I like George Hill as much as the next guy, but Lou Williams has been outstanding. If it weren't for James Harden, he'd probably be the front-runner for 6th Man of the Year. He leads Philly in scoring despite being just sixth in minutes (26.3), and is third in assists. He also has a 3.5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and gets to the line a ton.

    Also, Thad Young continues to be one of the best backups and most underrated players in the league. He's been far better than his Pacers counterpart, Tyler Hansbrough.
    Last edited by Lance George; 02-22-2012 at 11:48 AM.

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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    My view is slightly different...

    DC < Jrue
    PG >> Meeks
    Danny < Iggy
    West > Brand
    Hibbert > Hawes

    Jrue and Iggy are playing better, but not better enough to overcome the pretty strong advantage we have a defensive SG, defensive C and scoring PF. Brand at one point was West like, and West often has low interest in defense, but right now West is 100% back to all-star level scoring ability out of the post.
    I agree with your assessment. And I'd much rather have Jrue than DC.
    Lance + Starting SG = Awesome

    Now really free Lance!

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    Flipped Off The Refs Larry Staverman's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Quote Originally Posted by GrangeRusHibbert View Post
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    West = Brand (Both washed-up ex-All-Stars. West is a little more well-rounded, while Brand is superior at the typical PF role [rebounding and blocking shots])
    While Brand is clearly not close to what he was in his prime saying that David West is washed up is total B.S. West is still one of the better power forwards in the NBA. Not sure what you have been watching.

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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    My view is the following:

    DC = Jrue (DC could probably be better but I guess that Jrue is in a funk so they will even out eventually)

    George > Meeks

    Granger = Iguodala (similar to DC = Jrue)

    West > Brand

    Hibbert > Hawes (that said, Hawes has been impressive this year)

    Also, I agree that their bench is better in overall. Lou Williams and Evan Turner. Lou Williams is averaging 21.4 PPG and 5.0 APG per 36. Evan Turner is averaging 12.6 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 4.1 APG per 36 (and he is an effing guard).

    Thaddeus Young is a good player but his numbers per 36 are close to Tyler so we have a tie here. Nikola Vucevic actually has better numbers per 36 (he could be a double-double machine)

    Anyway, their bench may be better talent-wise but our bench has some really nice defensive chemistry. We just lack the scoring punch off the bench that they have. Of course, GH3 was injured for a long time.

    I'd feel a good with a match up with them. We are both good and young teams

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Excuse me while I continue to revel in the misfortunes of others.
    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    I wanted to address this one specifically.

    1-4 in their first 5 with OKC to come. Not so nice for the home record. Funny how all those double digit home wins stopped happening.
    So last night made it officially 1-5 in those tough HOME games, as they lost to OKC.

    Funny how drastically different their home record and overall record looks now that the schedule has started to balance out for them. With the road trip catching up to them as well they are 3-8 in their last 11. The 3 wins were road games vs CLE, DET, and CHA. They haven't won a home game since Feb 6th vs the Lakers. They went 2-5 at home for the month of FEB.

    March for them could easily be another below .500 month at home, with 3-6 a realistic possibility (depending on the turn around of the Knicks and Boston; real or illusion). March is actually a "light" road month with more home games for them, but 3-4 on the road seems likely with trips to CHI, IND, NYK and SA.

    April has some easier road opponents, but only 4 home games compared to 10 road games. They have a 4 games in 5 nights section with the only home game being ORL to start it off. The last 2 are NJ and TOR but by then it's the end of non-stop travel for a week.

    They have a back to back to back in April that is road-home-road and the home game is hosting the Pacers (woo-hoo). And then they get the honor of not playing another home game after that.

    That's right, with 5 games remaining after that the Sixers end their home portion of the season on the 17th, some 9-10 days before the end of the season. They end with 4 road games in 6 nights.


    Feel the burn chumps.
    Maybe it shouldn't make me happy but it does.

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    White and Nerdy Anthem's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Great work.

    Any thoughts on New York and Orlando?
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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Some good points and opinions on the Pacers vs Sixers thing, even where I don't agree exactly. I think in general we all feel like the Pacers starters is a win and the Sixers bench is a win.

    Luckily in the playoffs it's typically starters-heavy which favors Indy.

    May not matter if Boston and NY catch them, which at 3 games out is very possible. If the Sixers live up to the March/April schedule that would cut into their 6 games over .500 mark by 3 or 4 games at least, leaving them around .500. NY and Boston could match that, especially since they play them so much in the next 2 months (and Indy).

    That would leave them at 8th and done for the year basically.


    As others have said, the key is to hold off Orlando and hold a possible 3 seed.

  26. #21
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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    Great work.

    Any thoughts on New York and Orlando?
    Per the end of my last post I need to go pull it and look, primarily the Magic.

    The Knicks can catch Philly, but the Pacers March/April is basically the flip of the Sixers. The Pacers started out with a lot of what Philly is ending with.

    Quick look at the Magic shows 2 3 game road trips still, but not much else. Their schedule is not quite Pacers home friendly, but fairly reasonable and balanced. They have their share of road tough games like Miami and the Spurs, but they also have several home games against some of their tougher competition (like the Sixers or tonight's Thunder game which they are winning by 10 right now).

    They have an @CHI, IND, MIA, @SA stretch, but they get rest in there with 2 days off after CHI and a day off between IND and MIA games. Most of their schedule looks like that - easy teams just when they need it or days off during tougher stretches.

    It really looks like a 2 team race to see who gets that 3rd slot and who drops to 5. Of course 5 will play the weaker division winner, NY, BOS or PHI and will have home court if they have the better record, which will be true if you are facing 3rd or 5th as an outcome with ORL.

    home court vs the 6th seed - ATL, NY, BOS, PHI
    or
    home court vs the 4th seed - NY, BOS, PHI

    It's not really as bad as I thought when I first started typing this. The problem is round 2 where 5 = MIA and 3 = CHI. Both are tough but I'd rather see the Pacers catch CHI due to matchups and last year's series.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 03-01-2012 at 10:19 PM.

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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    For a minute there, I thought this dude was coming to Philly...
    ...Still "flying casual"
    @roaminggnome74

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  30. #24
    Eating some cranbaisins The Sleeze's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    ....The problem is round 2 where 5 = MIA and 3 = CHI. Both are tough but I'd rather see the Pacers catch CHI due to matchups and last year's series.
    I've said this in another thread, but if we can't get the 3 seed than we are better off being the 6 seed. I would rather play the Bulls in the second round than be the 4 or 5 and get home court advantage in the first only to lose to Miami in the second round.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Hammer comes to Philly

    Quote Originally Posted by Roaming Gnome View Post
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    For a minute there, I thought this dude was coming to Philly...
    Come on man, we already did all this in the other thread.



    Anyway, w00t THUNDER, great come back on the Magic. The Pacers thank you for bringing some 4th quarter hammer to the Magic.

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