Danny is basically the emotion of this team. If a teammate gets in a fight Danny is there to stick up for his guy. If someone talks about our team publicly Danny isn't afraid to say something publicly right back. If somebody upsets Danny he goes off for 30+ points. If we trade him we will lose that and who knows if the guy we bring in will bring that same mentality? Danny has been loyal and has never asked to leave or complained about playing in a small market. I think he'll be here his whole career whether everyone likes it or not. I just hope there isn't a point where he gets traded in a similar scenario that Jermaine did.
Using PER as the compilation of various stats...
14.7 - Rick
13.9 - Rick
16.7 - JOB
21.8 - JOB (4 years of growth to his peak)
19.8 - JOB
17.8 - JOB to Vogel
18.1 - Vogel
Danny's 5 game average has trended up on FG%, FTAs, and Points all year. For the last 10 games or so Danny's FTA rate is way above his career high even (above 8, career 4.9), and despite a couple of lower FTA outings recently the 5 game average remains higher than his career average as does his season average.
His 5 game FG% took a hit in recent games, but had climbed into the upper 40s. It dipped back below 40 for a few games (the 5 game avr, not single game) and has now rising back to the high 40s.
His PPG 5game average got up to 25 after starting the year below 15 through 9 games. It, like the FG%, dipped recently to below 20 but has recovered back to almost 23.
What the 5 game average is doing is monitoring trends in behavior but with a bit of a low pass filter to remove single game bounces. These things all show that week by week Danny's offensive game has been improving in general, and that the good/bad game ratio is getting higher. And not just higher, but heading into the area of output that would be on par with as good as Danny has done in general.
WHY SOME OF THE PAST STATS...
Offensively JOB ramped up the 3pt shooting and leaned on Danny especially to shoot the 3 in very high volume, thus he hit a PER peak with JOB. But as the JOB method continued on and made the situation worse and worse we saw Danny start to decline.
Vogel seems to have stabilized Danny overall and actually inspired him on the defensive end.
Danny's Win Shares per minute is way up and is currently the 2nd highest in his career. His TOs are way down (on a team that's not been good at protecting the ball) and his fouls are way down as well. He's playing smarter, more aggressive ball in the more structured Vogel strategy.
And all of this is in spite of a terrible shooting slump at the beginning of the season. Apart from changes due to strategy pace and that poor run of 2P% he's dead-center in being what his normal game is.
I'm not calling him a regular all-star, but I am saying that Reggie Miller was also not a regular AS, he sporadically made the team and made his biggest contributions as a playoff hero. In that way, regular season Danny is equal to regular season Reggie in terms of a guy that can "get you there". Reggie worked in conjunction with several other guys and Danny can and is doing the same.
People want him to be something he's not, just like those same people (or people like them) thought Reggie wasn't enough right up until the point when he suddenly was enough.
If you don't have a clear #5 guy then you don't really need a clear #1 guy either. If your 3,4,5 guys are winning every night then they can easily offset the losses at the 1,2 level. If Danny and Paul lose to Lebron and Wade they can still win overall if West, DC and Roy win their matchups. I admit they haven't done that the first two times, but there is reason to expect them to be able too. Chalmers should not be > DC, Bosh should not be > West (not by much) and Roy > any Miami center.
They weren't, but they can be. And that's why you don't have to trade Danny to "fix" the situation. It's not broke, not talent-wise at least. Chemistry and effort...yes, that was broken for 4-5 games, but we hope maybe it's mending now.
Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 02-19-2012 at 02:43 PM.
Yes...they were good enough. However, the pieces were close to the same age and they peaked together. That's my main point with Granger. Unless you have a Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan or Kobe Bryant on your team...good luck winning at all. When neither of your best players peak at the same time, you can pretty much forget it. Sure, they'll be good and fun to watch. Certainly above .500 once this team grows up. But as presently constructed this isn't a contender.
The team in the 90's, although it did not have a superstar, it was built far better and its best players were closer in age than 7 years. Miller and Jackson were born in 65. Smits and McKey in 66. The Davis's in 68 and 69. This is not an unimportant issue when you consider Granger's future on this team...and the value he might bring in trade.
Edit: ...and if someone brings up Jalen Rose...consider this. Reggie Miller was a serious odd ball in terms of longevity....
Last edited by BlueNGold; 02-19-2012 at 02:34 PM.
Very nice post, Seth .
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The Bulls could have lost that game, and we KNOW they were championship level elite. They were losing Jordan's ONLY game 7, at home, with just 4-5 minutes left. And considering the caliber of talent of the Bulls vs Jazz, the Bulls were the toughest opponent in the path (thus the Pats/Bears metaphor).
The Pacers went to 4 ECF game 7s in 7 years. Not just the ECF, but "in 48 minutes you might be in the Finals" games. That's it. That's elite. It was actually basically better than everyone but the Bulls and Rockets, and in an overall number of elite seasons it was better than the Rockets in that era.
Or am I supposed to believe that over 15 years there were only 4 elite teams, and only 1-2 at any given moment? Sorry Jazz, Sonics, Knicks, Pacers, 90's Lakers...you SUCK. Try again. Maybe trade Stockton and Malone for elite players than can put you over the top and win a title.
I just hate that #2 = #LAST view. It makes people do desperate, panic moves as they chase after unrealistic goals. If Denver had that attitude they never would have won a Super Bowl with Elway...and neither would the Colts with Manning. How many blown chances to you give Peyton before you realize he's good, but not good enough? By the measure you put forth here you wouldn't have given him enough to get to the Super Bowl season.
Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 02-19-2012 at 02:41 PM.
But Rose is to Reggie as Paul is to Danny in terms of age.
Maybe when they win it all it's with a vet Danny who's not the top player anymore but still very good. Was Reggie really ever the top guy on those playoff teams? His best year by far was year 3, well before the perennial ECF teams. On his famous 8 in 8.9 night he stunk for 47 minutes and the team lived on Smits the entire time. Other guys often did that. Reggie was "one of the" best, but not "the" best much of the time. Only in the critical moments did he typically own the situation.
I'm not against the jist of the idea, trading a vet to get younger or trading to adjust the talent disbursement across positions. But to me this is like trading Mark Jackson for Jalen Rose, and actually fits very well. Vet vs young, adjust where your talent is.
That's the season that shall not be named. So the last time they really tried to make a move like this it destroyed offensive chemistry and resulted in a VERY LUCKY "undo" for the Pacers when Denver gifted Jax right back to us.
Getting Rose was great, but ultimately it was great because it ended up not being Jax for Rose but rather "various deep bench" for Rose.*
If the team was cap locked this might be different, or if they had a 3rd guy behind Paul and Danny who was on par with them (in terms of length, Hill can't go to the SF ever). But this team does not have too many wings of that caliber. They have 2 of them.
*I will concede that another part of the issue was that moron Brown stubbornly chose to make some random point to Rose that was akin to setting himself on fire as a way to clean the clothes he was wearing, and they were counting on Workman who proceeded to get basically career-ending injured right after that.
Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 02-19-2012 at 02:56 PM.
If this is the only goal for you then you need to either A.) become a bandwagon fan and just follow great teams/players around. B.) stop watching the NBA.
Pray tell what team in the NBA right now is built to beat a team that got two of the top players of their generation and another great player to come on board?
OKC? Maybe, we'll see.
Chicago? Didn't work out so well last year.
Remember this is Indiana, we are not going to be able to build a team of Dwight Howard, Daron Williams & Carmellow Anthony.
What we are doing now is what we have to do, the way we will have to build.
We may get lucky and get a star player this summer who decides he wants to win and doesn't care about the sun & sand and bright lights to come here as a free agent, but I doubt it.
I think some of you guys forget how far we have come in just one short year. Remember just a year and a month ago we were one of the worst teams in the NBA with a coach who had no clue.
Now, even with recent struggles, we are at the very least one of the good teams in the NBA (even if not elite).
Also as to comparing the 90's teams to now. I think what people are forgetting is that this team did not come together overnight. We started drafting these players in the late 80's and got a few trades in the early 90's and kept on drafting.
Seth is actually saying it, but I want to re-emphasize it.
I might be in the minority here, but I trade PG before I trade Granger
Granger is by far and away our most consistent player. West is probably second.
If we were to get Rondo, I would rather a package of DC/PG and picks
Sittin on top of the world!
If we traded Danny, wouldn't it be for a player of at-least-similar stature? And so wouldn't Paul George just defer to that guy instead?
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As someone has already mentioned, Granger won't be going anywhere unless it involves Dwight Howard this year. Trading Hibbert, Granger, LOU and a pick or two for Howard, and JRich or Hedo would be the only move that would make us better this year.
Do I see this happening? Absolutley not. Why? B/c Orlando wants more, and we would be stupid to give it up.
IDK. I consider Miller to be the most talented Pacer since they've been in the NBA. He's not the most well rounded. Granger might be that. But the extreme level of talent in terms of converting difficult shots when it counted matter more to me than anything I've seen JO or Granger do. Danny did wake me up a bit last year in the playoffs....when he did truly bring it. So there is some hope.
But the comparisons with Jalen/Reggie and Paul/Danny are off. First, Reggie was a freak in terms of longevity. In the late 90's, Reggie was entering his mid 30's but still played like he was 25. Danny is not likely to have a career like that. Second,by the time Jalen came along, the team was getting old by the time their run was over and age was a factor in their limitations. Smits was already kicking the idea of retirement around. If you go back and look at his stats, he clearly was peaking in the mid 90's, not the late 90's when Jalen came along. ...so I think this backs up my point.
Manning and Elway? The equivalent to Jordan/Lebron compared to Danny? I guess everybody hates Danny because he is not Manning[I just hate that #2 = #LAST view. It makes people do desperate, panic moves as they chase after unrealistic goals. If Denver had that attitude they never would have won a Super Bowl with Elway...and neither would the Colts with Manning. How many blown chances to you give Peyton before you realize he's good, but not good enough? By the measure you put forth here you wouldn't have given him enough to get to the Super Bowl season.
Reggie was a nobody until 1994. Sure some people had heard about him but believe me in the NBA he was cast in the lot of Mitch Richmond, Steve Smith, etc. In fact each year there was an argument that you could say any of those players were better than the other.
Then in 1994 Reggie had his series in the Garden, his spike moment. But the thing is that in 1994 Reggie's scoring went down, he shot less and focused more on defense. He tried to blend into the team game knowing that he didn't have to have big offensive games for us to win.
That was seven years into Reggie's career.
Does that sound familiar to anyone? Who else is in the second tier of NBA star players? Who else has tried to blend into a team game and knowing that he doesn't have to score big for us to win every game.
Also who is in his 7th year?
Danny just hasn't had the chance yet to make playoff noise. However who is to say that the United Center can't be his MSG. Danny hates the Bulls as much as Reggie hated the Knicks.
Side by side the two of them are almost identical through 7 years
Call me crazy, but am I the only who wants to keep the defensive advantage of George @ SG spot and Granger @ the SF spot? We're the ONLY team with a SG/SF combo where EACH player is in the Top 7 for blocks and steals AND Top 10 in STL/TO ratio at their respective position.
No your not crazy, in fact you are dead on accurate here.
This is what I've been trying to say all season long to the Paul George posse. They compliment each other. Danny is far stronger and far more physical than Paul.
Paul is much quicker and has far more athletic ability than Danny.
Why people want to get rid of that is beyond me.
They are a destitue man's version of Pippen and Jordan. No I'm not comparing them to Pippen and Jordan but you get my point.
And also just because Danny averages the same as Reggie at the same age doesn't mean that Danny is going to be Reggie.
This is similar to the people that tried to tell me that DC could be compared to Nash because their numbers are similar in their 3rd year in the NBA.
Time to tank? That's what would happen if Danny is traded. It is Larry waving the white flag.
BTW we are having our best year since 2003-2004 when the Pacers went to the ECF. Just sayin...
EDIT: I'm not saying Danny is going to be a HOF player, but that doesn't mean he will be a damn good player for years to come still, one that is very valuable to this team.