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My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

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  • #1

    My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

    This is my first time starting a thread on Pacers Digest. And I’m guessing the vast majority of you will disagree with my prediction:

    I predict the Pacers will finish 9th in the East, in the 29-32 win range.
    I think we are probably at least another year away from witnessing a true "breakout" season (top 5 in the Conference).

    (dodges tomatoes thrown on-stage)

    A couple of things before I get more into it. First, this is my HONEST take on where I think we stand in the East. It’s not pessimism, and it’s not meant to rub people the wrong way who complain about “Debbie downers.” The aim here is not to upset the Era of Good Feelings, but at the very least to encourage people to not take lightly or dismiss our competition. For example, I have read some forecasts by fans that don’t even mention the Bucks and I don’t agree with that at all. So I’ve offered a few brief write-ups on some of these other teams also in the running for a playoff spot (Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit, New Jersey) to remind people that they won’t be pushovers. Also understand—I hope most of you are right that this team is poised for a breakout year!! I want that to be true—I’m just not there yet, having a hard time seeing it. So if you are so inclined, help the doubters like myself to see it. Tell me what you think I am missing.

    I approach this with the assumption that a majority of you hold a similar expectation as Bob Kravitz: "The Pacers should not only make the playoffs this season, but should grab no lower than a fifth seed and even make a run at home court in the first round. They're not going to challenge Miami, Boston and probably Chicago in the Eastern Conference, but they can duke it out with Orlando, Atlanta, the Knicks and Philly." I think this is a stretch---While there may be enough talent here to make another run at the 7 or 8 seed, it is far more likely we finish 9th-11th than 4th-6th. I would be ecstatic with top 5, but putting my analyst hat back on I just don’t think this is realistic.

    So here is how I see the East shaping out:

    THE WEALTHY

    Miami
    Chicago
    Boston

    THE MIDDLE CLASS

    Orlando--As long as they still have Dwight Howard (or two time championship frontline of Bynum and Gasol) coupled with solid backcourt offensively of Jameer Nelson and Jason Richardson, then it remains a long-shot for Indiana to supplant them.

    New York--Landry Fields and Tyson Chandler will be great complements to Melo and Amare

    Atlanta--teague,johnson,williams,jay smoove, horford, veteran bench--hinrich, t-mac, zaza
    If jay smooove is motivated (appears he is with the weight loss) and horford is horford, then they will again be a mid-tier playoff team that continues to give us problems.

    VYING FOR RESPECT (AND FINAL 2 PLAYOFF SPOTS)
    (I view it as a 5 team race for these final 2 spots: Ultimately injuries will probably play a major role as they have the past few years. Injuries ruined our chances in 2008-09 and 2009-10, while Milwaukee’s injuries, Jerebko out, and our good injury fortune allowed us to sneak in last year.)

    Philadelphia-- Early on last season many of you were disappointed with our 9-7 record, but I felt at the time that we were overachieving to be above .500, and I expressed my view that 3-13 Philadelphia had more talented players than we did. This was met with criticism, but sure enough, Philadelphia went 38-28 the rest of the way and finished with a better record than us. They return 4 solidly productive players—jrue, thad, iguodala, brand (still a superior low post threat compared to any Pacer player); plus consistent contributors lou will, meeks and evan turner. Others tout our supposedly superior depth as a major reason why we will outperform a team like Philadelphia, but they return 6 double-digit scorers from a year ago, and it's likely that Evan Turner makes it 7 this year. Spencer Hawes hasn't shown much, but this was still a top 8 defensive team last year. Philadelphia (and Milwaukee up next) have proven that they are superior defensive teams. And they were just as competitive in their Miami series as we were with Chicago. Barring major injuries (they were 5-10 last year without Iguodala), they will again be a playoff team.

    Milwaukee--It seems that many people have forgotten that they won 46 games in 2009-10 and took Atlanta to 7 games without Bogut, which for me is more impressive than anything we accomplished those final 3 months of last season when we went 20-18 with the league’s 5th easiest schedule during that stretch. Also, look at their injuries from top to bottom last year and tell me you're not impressed that they still won 35 games and were once again a top 5 defense. But now, Bogut is healthy, Mbah a Moute is re-signed and Scott Skiles is still the coach, so it's almost a lock that they will continue to be one of the league's top defenses. Dunleavy/Jackson will likely improve the offense as well, and Jennings' shooting percentage has nowhere to go but up. If Bogut stays healthy, pencil them in as an 8 seed.

    Indiana--Most other fans have done a good job of highlighting the positives with this team, such as the good young core and the benefit of experiencing the playoffs last season. Indeed, there's enough talent here to compete for a playoff spot, but we will probably need to be a top 10 defensive team and catch up with the likes of Philadelphia and Milwaukee to make this a reality. Will a rookie head coach be able to inspire the sustained focus/grinding/attention to detail required to become an elite defensive team? It's not that players don't want to play hard for a coach, but I think it will be especially difficult for a young team to keep it going for a full season. Also, I think Paul George is another year or two away from having the type of "breakout" season that some fans are hoping for/counting on (i.e., consistent 2nd or 3rd scoring option) in order for us as a team to take the next big step. West is a nice player, and I actually view his age as somewhat of a positive because a young team can always benefit from more veterans. I don’t think he hurts us, and if I were GM I would have probably signed him had Nene turned down my max offer (if we had signed Nene, Indiana would definitely be in my top 8 and perhaps cracking top 6). But right now I don’t anticipate him being the kind of difference maker that some here are expecting. I think it is unfair to West to expect him to come in right away off the injury and be a consistent contributor. Can we be a top 5 defensive team with Collison and West playing 30 minutes a night? Jeff Bower couldn’t make it out of the bottom 5 with this duo in New Orleans. I’ll say it again—if we finish top 6 in the East with a top defense, Frank Vogel deserves coach of the year. George Hill was a nice pickup, but I think losing Rush/Dunleavy will hurt more than people might think. So yes, I suspect I'm not as high on the potential impact of some of these offseason roster moves as most people are.

    And I’m sorry, but I don’t see us going anywhere as long as we continue to build around Granger and Hibbert. Putting my GM hat back on--In the next 3-4 years, which center/small forward duo do you see as having the most potential: Nene/Paul George or Hibbert/Granger? I go with the former—Nene is a two-way player with his league best field goal % and good low-post defense. So I would have thrown max or near max money at him. His anchoring of Denver’s 18-7 finish to last season was not a fluke imo, and I think you win in this league with efficient players, not centers who shoot 46%. So I love the Denver small-market, “moneyball” model with no stars but outstanding efficiency from their top 3 of Nene, Lawson and Afflalo. And while Paul George may not breakout this year, I do agree with the future rosy assessments that he will be an all-star. He has the makings of a solid two-way player (no way I'd trade him for Eric Gordon). So I would have used this time to try and trade Granger/Hibbert while there is still considerable value to be mined in return. I realize almost no one agrees with this approach right now, but I’m wondering if we do miss the playoffs again whether people will be more open to trading our leading scorer……. But maybe we can revisit that topic in July. There will be no Granger/Hibbert bashing from me until then as I root for them the next 4 (but hopefully 6!) months, only praise or silence.

    Detroit--I've seen others on this site completely dismiss their chances, but I think Detroit has enough talent to realistically make a run at 7 or 8. Let's start at center, which is a strength for them... Last year the average NBA center shot 51%--Nene led the league at 61%, and Detroit's rookie Greg Monroe shot 55% (his last 3 months were all at or above 57%). Our center shot 46%, and was below 50% for each of the season's 6 months. Our success this season depends in large part on whether Roy Hibbert can provide the efficiency of an average NBA center. In his 4th season, will he for the first time be average, or better yet, accomplish comparable shooting and rebounding efficiencies as rookie Greg Monroe? If the answer is again "no", then we will probably stay below .500. Many people like to compare Hibbert favorably with Rik Smits-- but Smits exceeded 51% in 6 of his first 8 seasons while Hibbert is now 0 for 3. Now is the time for Hibbert to prove he can sustain that kind of production for a full season. Some people have (unfairly) placed a future top 5 center expectation on him, but can he even be considered top 3 in his own division when he is compared against the overall impact of Bogut, Noah and Monroe? I love how Hibbert has worked hard to go from a rookie project (7.7 fouls per 36 minutes) to starter, but rookie Monroe was already the more reliably efficient player last season, and will likely be so this season as well. If Hibbert can’t reach 51%, I’d settle for a drop in the turnovers.

    Also remember--one of Detroit's most productive players in 2009-10 was rookie Jonas Jerebko (he trailed only Ben Wallace in the "Wins Produced" metric that season). He started most of their games at forward and was an efficient two-way player. He missed all of last season, but now he's back healthy. And will losing Rip Hamilton prove to be addition by subtraction? I think so, in terms of both chemistry AND on the court since it likely frees up more minutes for Ben Gordon. But what I consider most important--new coach Lawrence Frank and his extra emphasis on Defense.... Last season Detroit was a more efficient offensive team than Indiana, but they finished bottom 3 defensively. If Detroit can improve from bottom 3 to average or even mediocre, then they should improve upon last season's 30-52 and be in the running for a playoff spot. Monroe (an efficient 15 and 10 guy this season? Definitely doable since he was 12 and 10 per 36 last year), healthy Jerebko, Prince, Gordon, Stuckey, Wallace, Knight, Daye, maybe Villanueva can occasionally catch fire off the bench--That's not a bad team if they can move away from last year's discord (dominated by Rip, Tmac and other veterans vs Coach Kuester). Ultimately I think they finish 10th or 11th right behind Indiana as there will probably be a period of adjustment with the new coach, but I wouldn't sleep on them at all. I’m also looking forward to watching those two early games we have with them (my guess is we split them).

    New Jersey—Their overall roster is subpar, but when you have arguably the best or second best point guard in the conference your team automatically has a realistic shot at the playoffs, because everyone's production will be raised. Losing out on Nene really hurt them and helped us big time (I would have considered the Nets a playoff lock with D-Will and Nene). They need to either re-sign Humphries or add another productive player like Kirilenko. If Avery gets them to defend, Lopez rebounds, and D-will stars, then they'll be in the hunt as well.

    THE WORKING POOR—I would be very surprised if one of these last four made it in. Would love to know if anyone sees it differently though—Washington intrigues me with Wall/McGee but I think they could benefit from a coaching change…

    Washington
    Charlotte
    Cleveland
    Toronto


    Oh, one more thing—If we do happen to struggle early on, I hope that a lot of the more optimistic forecasters will not immediately abandon all hope! Remember how Philly turned it around last year after their slow start—So with 15 of our first 22 on the road, I will not be disappointed with a 9-13 start.

    So in conclusion, a question--What percent chance do you give us of making the playoffs? I'll say 30%.
    150
    1-3 Seed
    9.33%
    14
    4-6 Seed
    65.33%
    98
    7 or 8 Seed
    22.67%
    34
    9-11 Seed
    2.00%
    3
    12-15 Seed
    0.67%
    1
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

    Indiana significantly improved from last year... SIGNIFICANTLY.. Unless a big injury happens there is no way we miss the playoffs.

    4-6.... Enough talent to go higher if they put it all together but we are a better playoff team than a season team. Wouldn't be suprised with a 6 seed and upset.

    EDIT: Guess ill throw some reasons why out there...

    DC will be even better. He has another year of experience, as well as an old running mate he had success with in the past with pick n roll, West. DC had an excellent showing in the playoffs until his ankle injury.

    PG already showing signs of improvment from what i can tell. Still think hes a year away from really coming out though.

    George Hill is an excellent experienced player who has been extremely well coached in his career, great defense and seems to have some clutch in him.

    Hibbert should do much better without JOB... Not to mention the rest of the team.

    And Hans off the bench will be incredible.

    David West is a former All-Star who appears to still be in All-Star form.
    Last edited by Ownagedood; 12-20-2011, 12:28 PM.

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

      In addition to the Significant improvements referred to by the previous poster, we also get to go the entire (shortened) season without JOB.... That is a huge improvement right there..

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

        Milwaukee was garbage even while healthy last season. I'm not sure how adding a career 41.8% chucker helps their offense, either. Watching Jackson and Jennings throw up brick after brick is gonna be quite comical.

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

          Very well written. I do think we will be a 4-6 seed though it's all dependent on the strides Hibbert makes IMHO.

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

              You should change the thread title to, "Prediciton sure to go wrong".

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

                I could see us missing the playoffs.

                Despite people thinking we're built great for the lockout shortened season, we have some drawbacks as well.

                New coaching staff: Half of it is entirely new, there's going to be an adjustment period.

                New pieces: With Hill and West, we potentially have two new starters. With Amundson, Pendergraph and Lance possibly making contributions too, it's going to take some time for everything to shake out.

                We're young: Sure, we have fresh legs and all that, but we don't have the experience and savvy, consistency that comes with a veteran team.

                If Roy doesn't get better, if Paul George doesn't improve by a fairly good leap, if neither Collison or Hill prove to be a capable point guard....we could be in trouble.

                Our perimeter scoring: two of our best perimeter shooters are gone, and we haven't really replaced them. Reminds me of Philly, who struggled without much of a perimeter threat. Though I think Collison steps up.

                With all that said...

                The top end of this team's the 4 seed. That's why this season is so exciting.
                "man, PG has been really good."

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

                  DonSwanson, if we didn't add better coaching, athleticism, defense, scoring, length and hustle over the off season you would have a good point.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

                    Good post, Don - I don't agree with your conclusion, but as IndyHoosier said, it's well written as well as thought-provoking, so well done.

                    I think predicting records this year will be especially difficult because of the injury threat due to a compressed schedule. Boston, New York & Miami have little depth, so I predict that one of the "powers" (I say Boston ... and the Lakers too) will suffer a humbling record. By the same token, I'm supporting teams with depth, which only encourages my sunshiner view of the Pacers. If they acquire/sign another decent SG & C, even more so. I'm with you on Philadelphia -- I loved the Vucevic pick and was confident they'd re-sign Thad Young -- and think they'll surprise too. Detroit, less so, and Milwaukee I'm not so high on, but hey, can't wait to find out!


                    "He’s no shrinking violet when it comes to that kind of stuff."

                    - Rick Carlisle on how Kevin Pritchard responds to needed roster changes.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

                      I'm sorry, but anyone who says we'll miss the playoffs doesn't know what they're talking about.
                      In 49 states it's just basketball, but this is Indiana!

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

                        Originally posted by Scot Pollard View Post
                        I'm sorry, but anyone who says we'll miss the playoffs doesn't know what they're talking about.
                        While I disagree with him as well, this is hardly a compelling argument.

                        I do agree with him that the Pistons are being underrated by just about everyone. There's a lot more talent on the roster than people realize.
                        Last edited by Kstat; 12-20-2011, 01:15 PM.

                        It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

                        Division Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 1989, 1990, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
                        Conference Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 2005
                        NBA Champions 1989, 1990, 2004

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                        • #13
                          Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

                          I agree with you that some of the fans here are overly optimistic, but with the addition of West I think we're going to make the playoffs unless we are forced to deal with major injuries.

                          Personally I agree that Miami, Chicago, Boston, Atlanta, New York - are probably better than us.
                          I think it's hard to determine how well Orlando are going to be this season. There's just too much chaos around Dwight. But overall, if they do not trade Dwight then I predict they are going to make the playoffs.

                          So we have 6 potential slots taken. 2 spots remain.
                          Overall, We're going to compete against Philly, Nets, Bucks. Detroit aren't all that great and I don't think they're part of the playoffs race.

                          Nets- Have a nice starting 5, but no depth. if they trade for Dwight, good for us, Orlando won't make the playoffs and another spot will open. Bottom line, I think they will make the playoffs. They know they have to add pieces around Deron to make the playoffs. They know that if they miss the playoffs again Deron might be too pissed to stay.

                          Philly- Have nice depth, nice young players, We're around the same level.

                          Bucks- Could pose a threat if they stay healthy, but we're a better all-around team.

                          I predict somewhere around 5th-7th seed.
                          Originally posted by Piston Prince
                          Bobcat fans telling us to cheer up = epic fail season
                          "Josh Smith Re-building the city of Detroit one brick at a time"

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                          • #14
                            Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

                            I think we are going finish not higher than 6th and not lower than 10th, good post by the way.
                            @WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!

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                            • #15
                              Re: My East predictions and probably a minority view: The Pacers will miss the playoffs this season

                              So despite all the improvements and additions by subtractions, we essentially stand pat? Our young guys wont be improved either? Im sorry, that just wont happen.

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