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Currently, the Colts sit at 1-13, while both the Rams and Vikings are 2-12. In the event of a tie, the tiebreaker is determined by strength of schedule; the team with the weakest SOS gets the higher pick.
Here is a look at the current win totals of each teams' schedule. Obviously, this can still change quite a bit over the last couple of weeks, but this should at least give us an idea of where we stand in the race for Luck:
So, as of right now, the Colts remain firmly in the driver's seat.
Now, let's take a look at the records of the remaining opponents for each team:
Both of Minnesota's games are very winnable, so they could finish between 2-4 wins.
The Jags game is very winnable for the Colts, but it is on the road. The Houston game will be tough, but the game is at home. Unlikely the Colts will get more than one of the two, which would put them at 2 wins.
The Rams' remaining schedule is brutal, on the road at Baltimore and at home against the Niners. Unless San Fran locks things up and sits their starters, it's unlikely the Rams will win anymore games this season.
So, a three-way tie is still very possible. There are no 3-win teams, so the Colts will finish with no worst than the #3 pick. Of course, there is a substantial drop in value after the first pick, so it's still critical that we drop one, if not both, remaining games.