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Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

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  • #31
    Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

    If you don't understand how Polian ever got a job in the first place, then you should probably do a little research on NFL history.

    Regardless of how Polian ends his time here, he's going to be remembered as the best GM in NFL history. People don't devalue MJ because he went and played for Washington, and they aren't going to erase what Polian did for 20+ years, because he stumbed at the end of his career either.

    He's not stupid. I think it's more about arrogance than anything, but the man has some pretty good reasons to think he knows a thing or two about building a football team.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

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    • #32
      Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

      Polian best GM in NFL history? Seems a bit of a stretch.


      Comment


      • #33
        Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

        I would take Belichick any day over Polian. And twice on Sundays....

        Polian's legacy will be harmed by this season. It's anyone's guess as to just how much. All of the people who have for years been saying that this team was nothing without Manning were basically proven right. It's hard for me to consider someone the greatest GM in NFL history when that person builds a roster that can't even win a game without it's star player.

        Our roster this year isn't because of him "losing it" at the very very end of his career. Our current roster is instead the product of years and years of decisions. Enough years to put a dent in his legacy, that's for sure.

        The MJ/Wizards example is an apples to orange comparison. MJ was actually still an excellent basketball player on the Wizards considering he was 40 years old. He averaged 22.9 PPG in 60 games in his first season there and then 20 in all 82 games in his second season. Pretty impressive considering he was away from the game for a couple years and was very very old. It was rough seeing him in a Wizards uniform surrounded by garbage players, but the guy could still play.

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        • #34
          Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

          Bilichick isn't a GM, so he's automatically out of the running.

          Polian has won the NFL's Best Executive Award 6 times, which is more than any other GM in NFL history. That stat alone should give pause.

          And outside of Colts fans, no one is going to remember him being the GM of an 0-16 Colts team. He's going to be remembered as the GM who lead the Colts to a number of different NFL records, like most consecutive seasons with 12 wins, most consecutive playoff seasons, etc.
          Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

            Exorcise the Polian demons while you're at it (canning people)!
            I'd rather die standing up than live on my knees.

            -Emiliano Zapata

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            • #36
              Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

              Belichick virtually has complete authority over all football-related decisions in that organization. I don't care what his official title is because the fact remains that he calls all the shots and constructs that roster. Practically he is the GM, even if that's not his "official" title. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck....

              So if it's not appropriate to say GM, I'll re-phrase it and say that I would rather have Belichick construct a football roster.

              I'm not denying that Polian wasn't deserving of those GM of the year awards in the 90's. The Bills had a great run. The Panthers going to the NFC title game in just their second season was a great achievement. He also deserved the one here in 99 given that we had an incredible turnaround. Picking Edge over Ricky Williams was enough to make him deserving of the award.

              But I call mega-BS on him deserving the 09 GM of the year award. Our roster is virtually the same as it was two years ago. Yet one player is the difference between starting a season out 14-0 versus 0-13. He clearly rode Manning's coattails on that one.

              All I'm really saying is that us going 0-13 without Manning pokes enough holes in him that many will not have him as the greatest GM of all time. Our roster is the product of several years of decisions.

              I'm not questioning that he has plenty to hang his hat on over the past 20 years. He can retire a very content man.
              Last edited by Sollozzo; 12-16-2011, 11:10 AM.

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              • #37
                Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

                Originally posted by Since86 View Post
                And outside of Colts fans, no one is going to remember him being the GM of an 0-16 Colts team. He's going to be remembered as the GM who lead the Colts to a number of different NFL records, like most consecutive seasons with 12 wins, most consecutive playoff seasons, etc.

                Manning will get like 99% of the credit for that amongst NFL fans. Polian and everyone else will be an afterthought.

                And I think plenty of people who watch the NFL closely will remember the Colts going winless without Peyton Manning.
                Last edited by Sollozzo; 12-16-2011, 11:11 AM.

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                • #38
                  Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

                  The Pats have had some truly awful players on their teams that have been successful. And then when they've left NE, they've been shown for how truly awful they really are.

                  The success that the Patriots have, isn't based on the players they put on the field, but rather the coaches that put them into spots and schemes that maximized their limited abilities.

                  I don't think their player management has been good at all, which makes them winning even more impressive.


                  And regardless, you can debate about who will get the most of the glory from these Colts teams, but when you start talking GMs, Polians name will still be in the discussion. Yes, most people will point to Peyton first, but they're also going to point to Bill.

                  But Polian has accomplished some things that no other GM in NFL history has, and he's got the hardware to prove it.

                  I mean my goodness, he took a team to 4 straight SBs. You can point out that they didn't win, and obviously I'd agree with you, but just getting to 4 straight is a pretty impressive accomplishment on it's own right, and that's not even touching the highly subjective topic of how much player execution should shoulder the blame.

                  I think he'll go down as the best, which is debateable, but it isn't debateable that he's not even in the discussion. Even the most staunch anti-Polian people should be able to admit that he's atleast in the discussion.
                  Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

                    Originally posted by Since86 View Post
                    The Pats have had some truly awful players on their teams that have been successful. And then when they've left NE, they've been shown for how truly awful they really are.

                    The success that the Patriots have, isn't based on the players they put on the field, but rather the coaches that put them into spots and schemes that maximized their limited abilities.

                    I don't think their player management has been good at all, which makes them winning even more impressive.

                    Fair enough. I guess it would also be fair to point out that several of the valuable contributors to the Pats 3 championship teams were guys that were there before Belichick. (Brown, Bruschi, Law, Milloy to name a few)

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                    • #40
                      Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

                      Originally posted by Since86 View Post
                      If you don't understand how Polian ever got a job in the first place, then you should probably do a little research on NFL history.

                      Regardless of how Polian ends his time here, he's going to be remembered as the best GM in NFL history. People don't devalue MJ because he went and played for Washington, and they aren't going to erase what Polian did for 20+ years, because he stumbed at the end of his career either.

                      He's not stupid. I think it's more about arrogance than anything, but the man has some pretty good reasons to think he knows a thing or two about building a football team.
                      He built THIS football team. I think we are seeing that Peyton made him look a little better than he really is. Without Peyton most of our roster looks average because maybe that's what they are? His draft record has been horrible for at least 5-6 years now. Plus he's had a decade to see that the defensive organizational philosophy just plain isn't working and he's too stubborn to budge on his own philosophies. Coyer said he was handcuffed because of organizational philosophies. Bill wants too much control of coaches and everything else so this season should fall on his shoulders more than anybodys. I will give him some credit for his early success but it seems to me when it's no longer working he has no ability to adjust his strategies and is condescending to anyone that suggests he do so. To me if we go 0-16 this year the whole house should be cleaned. No one should be immune.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

                        Originally posted by Since86 View Post
                        The success that the Patriots have, isn't based on the players they put on the field, but rather the coaches that put them into spots and schemes that maximized their limited abilities.
                        I agree with you in part, because the talent gap in the NFL is far less than most people would have you think, hence the absolute truth of the "any given Sunday" philosophy.

                        I would submit, however, that in just using this year as an example, it is clear that at least three Patriots (Brady, Rob Gronkowski- having the best season by any tight end in NFL history, and Wes Welker-having one of the top 5 seasons by any WR in NFL history) are among the top dozen players in the league. In a 32 team league, that is quite remarkable, since you would expect on average every third team would have one guy at that level.

                        If such an NFL list went up to top 50 players, Vince Wilfork and Jerrod Mayo would likely be added to that list.

                        So there is star power there. But you are right in that half of the Patriots roster would have a very hard time even sticking in the league under another system, because the coaching is precisely tuned to exploit their abilities, and another quarter of the roster would stick on a roster but would struggle in another system to match their current production.

                        This dichotomy is seen in that when someone at a star level leaves the Patriots, their success does indeed continue, often at nearly the same level- see Ty Law, Asante Samuel, Willie McGinest, Adam V, Damien Woody, Richard Seymour, and others.

                        But when a good-but-not-great player leaves, more often than not they drop off the face of the earth- Deion Branch, Dante Stallworth, Ben Watson, Brandon Meriweather (generally inactive on game days!), David Givens, etc.

                        As to drafting and free agent evaluation success, I would guess that on a percentage basis Belichick is only a little above average. Spectacular hits, spectacular misses, and a lot in the middle. What helps is a shot-on-goal effect, Bill's love of amassing extra draft picks. It arguably makes the miss rate higher, but it gives you more shots at making the spectacular hit.

                        Look at the 2010 draft for example:

                        1st Round (27th Overall) – Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
                        so-so pick. made pro bowl as a rookie, but regressed

                        2nd Round (42nd Overall) – Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona
                        spectacular hit- would be a top 5 pick on any re-draft

                        2nd Round (53rd Overall) – Jermaine Cunningham, OLB, Florida
                        spectacular miss- cannot stay active

                        2nd Round (62nd Overall) – Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida
                        so-so pick. solid against the run

                        3rd Round (90th Overall) – Taylor Price, WR, Ohio
                        spectacular miss- lost job to undrafted free agent

                        4th Round (113th Overall) – Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida
                        spectacular hit- would be late 1st round/ early 2nd round pick on any re-draft

                        5th Round (150th Overall) – Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan
                        solid hit- top 5 punter

                        6th Round (205th Overall) – Ted Larsen, C, NC State
                        swing and a miss

                        7th Round (208th Overall) – Thomas Welch, OT, Vanderbilt
                        swing and a miss

                        7th Round (247th Overall) – Brandon Deaderick, DL, Alabama
                        very solid pick- not a starter but a top reserve DL

                        7th Round (248th Overall) – Kade Weston, DL, Georgia
                        swing and a miss

                        7th Round (250th Overall) – Zac Robinson, QB, Oklahoma State
                        swing and a miss

                        So they got 12 picks instead of 7, and the volume of picks overcame the fact that 6 of them were total busts (in fairness though, 5, 6 7-round guys generally ARE destined to be busts).

                        If they had only 7 picks and 6 of them were busts, they would be in a world of hurt.


                        If Belichick has slipped in anything, it is in his "hit rate" in evaluating defensive backs and wide receivers on draft day, perhaps relating to the fact that <10% of colleges play pro style passing offenses.

                        I would submit that while Bill Polian used to be one of the very best on draft day, he has slipped in his hit rate with regard to evaluating linemen (both sides) and also players at most defensive positions. He is better at finding the diamond-in-the-rough among low round picks than he is at finding the diamonds-among-other-diamonds in the higher rounds. Historically Polian has been great, but how far does history carry you forward, if the year-to-year track record continues to disappoint in the short term? Not far, I think, in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately culture of pro sports.

                        For a close-to-home example, I think Donnie Walsh was a good-to-great GM for the Pacers for a long time, then lost his fastball about 8 years ago. Polian seems on a similar track, though maybe more extreme. Polain was for a long time better as an NFL GM than Walsh ever was as an NBA GM, but he has lost his fastball too, in my opinion.
                        Last edited by Slick Pinkham; 12-16-2011, 02:44 PM.
                        The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!).

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                        • #42
                          Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

                          I don't disput any of that. You said this.

                          Makes you wonder how he ever got a job in the first place.
                          Telling me why he shouldn't keep his job is different from saying he shouldn't even of had the job.
                          Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

                            Originally posted by Since86 View Post
                            I don't disput any of that. You said this.



                            Telling me why he shouldn't keep his job is different from saying he shouldn't even of had the job.
                            Sorry. I didn't actually mean that literally. I just meant he says some stuff on his show that really makes you scratch your head. He actually said Caldwell is doing his finest coaching job this season. Wow. I'll have to find the exact quote but he also said something about our defense will give the receivers 5-10 yard completions but we will wear them down in the end. This whole bend but don't break thing has got to go. This year we are bending AND breaking.

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                            • #44
                              Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

                              It's probably just a combination of things, arrogance mostly. The Colts are always in the bottom half of the league in payroll, and they got used to being able to fill positions with players on rookie contracts, and that just isn't happening anymore.

                              As much as I respect Bill, not only for his entire career but what he's done for the state of Indiana as a whole, it's time for him to move on. I don't know if Chris is the answer, he's not building much faith, but the game has either passed Bill up or he's just too damn arrogant.

                              Either way, it's the end of a highly successful and disappointing era. Which is quite odd.

                              Time for some new blood, and new football philsophies. I really hope whoever comes in brings the 3-4 with them. I think DFree and Mathis, had they played in that system, would have been a lot better and more consistant.
                              Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: Report: Caldwell will be fired if the team finishes 0-16

                                Polian really was a fantastic drafter back in the day. In the first half the 00's practically all of our first round picks ended up being pro bowlers.

                                1999: James. Obviously a fantastic pick. He had one of the greatest rookie seasons ever as a RB. It's a shame he suffered that devastating ACL injury in his third season. That injury took away 2 great years from his career. But it was nice to see him come back strong in 04 and 05. He needs to be put in that Ring of Honor.

                                2000: Our first pick was Rob Morris. He wasn't a pro bowler but he did have a solid career here. We also drafted that Marcus Washington who we weren't able to re-sign after his rookie contract. He went on to become a probowler with the Skins.

                                2001: Wayne. Stud

                                2002: Freeney. Stud

                                2003: Clark and Mathis: Huge contributors. Also drafted June

                                2004: Sanders

                                06: Addai and Bethea.


                                There's no doubt that you used to be able to basically guarantee that Polian would find a pro bowler in the first round. Looking back through all these drafts reminds you that he used to have a fantastic eye for talent.

                                EDIT: I agree with Slick with the Walsh comparison. Both Polian and Walsh were very very good at what they did for a long time but got to a point where they just didn't quite have the mojo anymore.

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