I agree with your post, for once.
I do think that Collison will be the PG starting out, but would not be surprised to see Hill take over the starting role at some point in the season.
If I were pushed for where the Pacers would finish right now, I would also pick 5-6. However, I believe that our depth might enable us to bypass New York and Orlando and capture a 4th seed.
If we are able to do that, and assuming Hansbrough, Hibbert and George continue growing at a rapid rate this season, then I can see the roster as is competing with the EC's big three the following season. A front court banger picked up between now and then will only strengthen that belief.