/ laugh at PosterX / GroupOfPeopleY who thought / believed *insert though/belief here*"
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Hacked the URL, and found this:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...layer-profiles
RESERVES
Clearly needs to be in a different system. When I talked with him, he complained that he "wasn't allowed" to drive to the hoop, which seemed like an odd excuse to me, but perhaps an important data point?
Wow, he really did suck last year. 
Does make you wonder if he'll be a potent backup 3 for another team.
That last stat is an eye-opener. That borders on our old friend, Turnstile.
Wow, this profile is all kinds of wrong... C? Played only in garbage time?
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...layer-profiles
DARREN COLLISON, PG
Projection: 18.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 7.3 ast per 40 min; 16.92 PER | Player card
• Waterbug point guard with accurate shot, but rarely takes 3s. Great foul shooter.
• Can get to rim and finish. Pushes tempo but doesn't distribute; thinks shoot-first.
• Moves well laterally but tiny build. Rarely fouls. Horrific plus-minus in '10-11.
Collison's plus-minus numbers from last season are just spectacularly awful. As with Brandon Rush, some of this is likely because Indy had a relatively strong bench and relatively weak starters, but nonetheless ... the Pacers were a jaw-dropping 16.38 points per 100 possessions worse with Collison on the floor, according to basketballvalue.com. That was the single worst figure in basketball (see chart).
Worst adjusted plus-minus, 2010-11
Player Team APM
Darren Collison Ind -16.38
Trevor Ariza NO -13.92
Gordon Hayward Uta -11.68
Raja Bell Uta -11.51
Kirk Hinrich Was-Atl -10.55
Min. 500 minutes. Source: Basketballvalue.com
Dig deeper and, unlike the other players on the list, you'll struggle to find a good reason. Collison's opponent PER of 15.5 wasn't terrible, his True Shooting Percentage was above the league average for point guards, and he fouled as rarely as any player in the league. Collison's two-year adjusted plus-minus rating is only -2.22, indicating last season's number may be a serious fluke; in general, this stat requires much more data for reliable samples than other categories. Nonetheless, it's hardly a feather in his cap that the Pacers played so much better as soon as he checked out of the game.
Collison could add considerable value by shooting more 3s, something he did on only one shot in seven last season even though he's a good outside shooter-- he made 40.3 percent of his long 2s and is a career 86.2 percent from the line. At 36.4 percent on his limited career 3-point attempts, he can be much more of a defense-stretching weapon.
The other area that needs work is his court vision. Collison was only 46th out of 68 point guards in Pure Point Rating, even though he's a good penetrator and had a lot of scoring options around him. To be a long-term starter, he needs to make sure Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert and Paul George are getting the rock in the right spots.
Projection: 18.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 7.3 ast per 40 min; 16.92 PER | Player card
• Waterbug point guard with accurate shot, but rarely takes 3s. Great foul shooter.
• Can get to rim and finish. Pushes tempo but doesn't distribute; thinks shoot-first.
• Moves well laterally but tiny build. Rarely fouls. Horrific plus-minus in '10-11.
Collison's plus-minus numbers from last season are just spectacularly awful. As with Brandon Rush, some of this is likely because Indy had a relatively strong bench and relatively weak starters, but nonetheless ... the Pacers were a jaw-dropping 16.38 points per 100 possessions worse with Collison on the floor, according to basketballvalue.com. That was the single worst figure in basketball (see chart).
Worst adjusted plus-minus, 2010-11
Player Team APM
Darren Collison Ind -16.38
Trevor Ariza NO -13.92
Gordon Hayward Uta -11.68
Raja Bell Uta -11.51
Kirk Hinrich Was-Atl -10.55
Min. 500 minutes. Source: Basketballvalue.com
Dig deeper and, unlike the other players on the list, you'll struggle to find a good reason. Collison's opponent PER of 15.5 wasn't terrible, his True Shooting Percentage was above the league average for point guards, and he fouled as rarely as any player in the league. Collison's two-year adjusted plus-minus rating is only -2.22, indicating last season's number may be a serious fluke; in general, this stat requires much more data for reliable samples than other categories. Nonetheless, it's hardly a feather in his cap that the Pacers played so much better as soon as he checked out of the game.
Collison could add considerable value by shooting more 3s, something he did on only one shot in seven last season even though he's a good outside shooter-- he made 40.3 percent of his long 2s and is a career 86.2 percent from the line. At 36.4 percent on his limited career 3-point attempts, he can be much more of a defense-stretching weapon.
The other area that needs work is his court vision. Collison was only 46th out of 68 point guards in Pure Point Rating, even though he's a good penetrator and had a lot of scoring options around him. To be a long-term starter, he needs to make sure Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert and Paul George are getting the rock in the right spots.
PAUL GEORGE, SG
Projection: 17.1 pts, 6.9 reb, 2.1 ast per 40 min; 14.31 PER | Player card
• Long, smooth wing with natural scoring instincts. Can shoot and finish.
• Struggled on D but showed potential. Quick hands and reads passing lanes.
• Needs to improve long-range shot, play harder and upgrade handle.
George's overall stats weren't amazing, but his rookie season oozed potential. Statistically, he was solid in virtually every category and gave an indication that his career could develop in several potential directions. His strongest negative category was a high turnover rate, which history has shown is indicative of great growth potential in future seasons.
His other weak category, 3-point shooting (29.7 percent), is one where players often make great strides in their second and third pro seasons; given his smooth stroke and 44 percent shooting on jumpers from 10-23 feet, one presumes he'll make the adjustment to the pro distance soon enough.
Meanwhile, George shot 65.6 percent in the basket area, rebounded well for a small forward, and had the third-highest rate of steals at the position. He has great hands and reads passing lanes, although he fouled too much and needs to improve his defensive fundamentals. Additionally, a positional question looms -- he can't really guard 2s and is stretched with his ballhandling and shooting at that spot, but the 3 spot is rather capably manned by Danny Granger at the moment. Nonetheless, he was one of 2010-11's most promising rookies and has definite breakout potential for 2011-12.
Projection: 17.1 pts, 6.9 reb, 2.1 ast per 40 min; 14.31 PER | Player card
• Long, smooth wing with natural scoring instincts. Can shoot and finish.
• Struggled on D but showed potential. Quick hands and reads passing lanes.
• Needs to improve long-range shot, play harder and upgrade handle.
George's overall stats weren't amazing, but his rookie season oozed potential. Statistically, he was solid in virtually every category and gave an indication that his career could develop in several potential directions. His strongest negative category was a high turnover rate, which history has shown is indicative of great growth potential in future seasons.
His other weak category, 3-point shooting (29.7 percent), is one where players often make great strides in their second and third pro seasons; given his smooth stroke and 44 percent shooting on jumpers from 10-23 feet, one presumes he'll make the adjustment to the pro distance soon enough.
Meanwhile, George shot 65.6 percent in the basket area, rebounded well for a small forward, and had the third-highest rate of steals at the position. He has great hands and reads passing lanes, although he fouled too much and needs to improve his defensive fundamentals. Additionally, a positional question looms -- he can't really guard 2s and is stretched with his ballhandling and shooting at that spot, but the 3 spot is rather capably manned by Danny Granger at the moment. Nonetheless, he was one of 2010-11's most promising rookies and has definite breakout potential for 2011-12.
DANNY GRANGER, SF
Projection: 23.2 pts, 6.1 reb, 2.9 ast per 40 min; 17.69 PER | Player card
• Deep-shooting combo forward with quick, accurate trigger. Rebounds well.
• Very effective going right but must improve left hand. Prone to turnovers.
• Defensive effort fluctuates. Limited court vision -- drives to score.
Granger ranks among the league's most effective scorers thanks to a strong catch-and-shoot game and, at 6-9, a difficult-to-block jumper. He complements that skill with the ability to put it on the deck going to his right, either for a midrange pull-up or going all the way to the rim. Plus, he draws a lot of fouls for a jump shooter, ranking 12th among small forwards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt and 10th in secondary percentage. His one shortcoming was a 35 percent mark on long 2s, many of which were under duress at the end of the shot clock.
While he's extremely effective shooting, getting to that point can be problematic. Granger's turnover rate is way too high for a jump shooter. He frequently loses the ball when forced to his dramatically weaker left hand and tends to use Heisman Trophy stiff-arms on his way to the basket that produce offensive fouls. Additionally, a case of dribble blindness encourages opponents to bring help as soon as he dribbles. As a result, his Pure Point Rating was an unacceptable -2.56, ranking 62nd out of 67 small forwards.
Granger played harder on defense last season, although his Synergy Stats numbers didn't show it; combine the two years and he rates as a very solid, if unspectacular, defender, and his plus-minus data supports that. He rarely checks top scorers, but he ranks in the upper half of his position in blocks and steals and is big enough to play as a 4 with the second unit.
Projection: 23.2 pts, 6.1 reb, 2.9 ast per 40 min; 17.69 PER | Player card
• Deep-shooting combo forward with quick, accurate trigger. Rebounds well.
• Very effective going right but must improve left hand. Prone to turnovers.
• Defensive effort fluctuates. Limited court vision -- drives to score.
Granger ranks among the league's most effective scorers thanks to a strong catch-and-shoot game and, at 6-9, a difficult-to-block jumper. He complements that skill with the ability to put it on the deck going to his right, either for a midrange pull-up or going all the way to the rim. Plus, he draws a lot of fouls for a jump shooter, ranking 12th among small forwards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt and 10th in secondary percentage. His one shortcoming was a 35 percent mark on long 2s, many of which were under duress at the end of the shot clock.
While he's extremely effective shooting, getting to that point can be problematic. Granger's turnover rate is way too high for a jump shooter. He frequently loses the ball when forced to his dramatically weaker left hand and tends to use Heisman Trophy stiff-arms on his way to the basket that produce offensive fouls. Additionally, a case of dribble blindness encourages opponents to bring help as soon as he dribbles. As a result, his Pure Point Rating was an unacceptable -2.56, ranking 62nd out of 67 small forwards.
Granger played harder on defense last season, although his Synergy Stats numbers didn't show it; combine the two years and he rates as a very solid, if unspectacular, defender, and his plus-minus data supports that. He rarely checks top scorers, but he ranks in the upper half of his position in blocks and steals and is big enough to play as a 4 with the second unit.
TYLER HANSBROUGH, PF
Projection: 19.6 pts, 9.5 reb, 1.3 ast per 40 min; 16.32 PER | Player card
• Short-armed, hustling power forward with good strength and scorer's mentality.
• Can jump, but struggles to finish. Likes taking line-drive, low release 15-footers.
• Lacks length, but quick for size and defends pick-and-roll. Zero court vision.
Rumors persist that Hansbrough assisted on a basket once, though nobody is sure of when. Only three power forwards had a lower assist ratio, particularly damning in Hansbrough's case since he operated out of the high post a lot and dribble-penetrated fairly often.
What he can do is score. Quick and strong, Hansbrough averaged a point every two minutes despite struggling to finish in the paint and possessing a herky-jerky line-drive jump shot. But while the jumper doesn't look like much, he has a quick release and is fairly accurate, making 43.3 percent of his 16-23 foot jumpers last season. Meanwhile, his physicality and hyper shot fakes enabled him to draw fouls at a high rate, where he converted a strong 77.9 percent.
Defensively, Hansbrough is a bit short and never blocks shots, but his quickness and physicality make him an asset overall, especially in pick-and-roll coverage. He just can't be asked to guard long post players 1-on-1 because they play right over the top of him.
Projection: 19.6 pts, 9.5 reb, 1.3 ast per 40 min; 16.32 PER | Player card
• Short-armed, hustling power forward with good strength and scorer's mentality.
• Can jump, but struggles to finish. Likes taking line-drive, low release 15-footers.
• Lacks length, but quick for size and defends pick-and-roll. Zero court vision.
Rumors persist that Hansbrough assisted on a basket once, though nobody is sure of when. Only three power forwards had a lower assist ratio, particularly damning in Hansbrough's case since he operated out of the high post a lot and dribble-penetrated fairly often.
What he can do is score. Quick and strong, Hansbrough averaged a point every two minutes despite struggling to finish in the paint and possessing a herky-jerky line-drive jump shot. But while the jumper doesn't look like much, he has a quick release and is fairly accurate, making 43.3 percent of his 16-23 foot jumpers last season. Meanwhile, his physicality and hyper shot fakes enabled him to draw fouls at a high rate, where he converted a strong 77.9 percent.
Defensively, Hansbrough is a bit short and never blocks shots, but his quickness and physicality make him an asset overall, especially in pick-and-roll coverage. He just can't be asked to guard long post players 1-on-1 because they play right over the top of him.
ROY HIBBERT, C
Projection: 18.1 pts, 10.1 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min; 16.03 PER | Player card
• Long big man with 18-foot range and improving low-post game.
• Slow-footed defender, but conditioning has improved. Mediocre rebounder.
• Improved passer from low block. Needs to draw more fouls.
As a whole, Hibbert's 2010-11 looks remarkably similar to his two previous seasons. Break it down, however, and it had more peaks and valleys than the Himalayas. Hibbert was lights out for the first six weeks of the season and drew chatter for the Most Improved Player award, but he hit a wall in mid-December and flat-lined. For a two-month stretch he was so bad that it was difficult to keep him on the floor -- he shot 38.8 percent in January, averaged only 9.5 points and basically stopped drawing fouls. Then, just as quickly, he got off the mat in mid-February and had a very solid closing stretch.
For the year, the notable accomplishment for Hibbert was the drop in his foul rate -- he couldn't stay on the floor for long stretches in his first two seasons but last season he was in the middle of the pack among centers. His biggest obstacle now isn't fouls but stamina, as he was diagnosed with asthma and, despite being in better shape last season, gets winded in games easily.
Hibbert also boosted his rebound rate, even in the stretch when his offensive game was a shambles, improving from "poor" to "average" in that respect. He doesn't need to be great with the way he scores in the post. Hibbert could stand to draw more fouls, but he's become effective at hitting cutters when passing out of double-teams and his hook shot and turnaround are effectively unblockable. He needs to calm down with the long Js -- he made only 30.4 percent -- but he's an effective short-range shooter and, again, at 7-2 nobody is blocking it.
Defensively, Hibbert's length is a factor, but he's slow and a bit clumsy and struggles covering the pick-and-roll. By cutting down the reach-in fouls and improving his rebounding, he's at least improved to the point where he's not a liability.
Projection: 18.1 pts, 10.1 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min; 16.03 PER | Player card
• Long big man with 18-foot range and improving low-post game.
• Slow-footed defender, but conditioning has improved. Mediocre rebounder.
• Improved passer from low block. Needs to draw more fouls.
As a whole, Hibbert's 2010-11 looks remarkably similar to his two previous seasons. Break it down, however, and it had more peaks and valleys than the Himalayas. Hibbert was lights out for the first six weeks of the season and drew chatter for the Most Improved Player award, but he hit a wall in mid-December and flat-lined. For a two-month stretch he was so bad that it was difficult to keep him on the floor -- he shot 38.8 percent in January, averaged only 9.5 points and basically stopped drawing fouls. Then, just as quickly, he got off the mat in mid-February and had a very solid closing stretch.
For the year, the notable accomplishment for Hibbert was the drop in his foul rate -- he couldn't stay on the floor for long stretches in his first two seasons but last season he was in the middle of the pack among centers. His biggest obstacle now isn't fouls but stamina, as he was diagnosed with asthma and, despite being in better shape last season, gets winded in games easily.
Hibbert also boosted his rebound rate, even in the stretch when his offensive game was a shambles, improving from "poor" to "average" in that respect. He doesn't need to be great with the way he scores in the post. Hibbert could stand to draw more fouls, but he's become effective at hitting cutters when passing out of double-teams and his hook shot and turnaround are effectively unblockable. He needs to calm down with the long Js -- he made only 30.4 percent -- but he's an effective short-range shooter and, again, at 7-2 nobody is blocking it.
Defensively, Hibbert's length is a factor, but he's slow and a bit clumsy and struggles covering the pick-and-roll. By cutting down the reach-in fouls and improving his rebounding, he's at least improved to the point where he's not a liability.
GEORGE HILL, G
Projection: 16.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.6 ast per 40 min; 14.30 PER | Player card
• Long-armed combo guard with tools to be excellent wing defender.
• Good spot-up shooter. Has handle for point guard but a scorer's mindset.
• Can slash to basket and draw fouls. Short for a 2. Slim build. Fairly athletic.
Hill played a lot of point guard in San Antonio last season but probably needs to become a full-time shooting guard. He may get the opportunity to do so in Indiana. Hill ranked just 61st among the league's 68 point guards in Pure Point Rating, and was 66th in Assist Ratio. Running an offense isn't his thing.
What he can do, however, is both snipe and slash. Hill can certainly shoot it, making 37.7 percent of his 3s, 40.8 percent on long 2s and 86.3 percent from the line last season. Playing off the ball may help his percentages further by giving him more shots off the catch. Additionally, Hill can get to the rim and draw fouls; despite taking a third of his shots from beyond the arc, he ranked seventh among point guards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt.
As a result, Hill ranked eighth at his position in TS%, and averaged 16.5 points per 40 minutes despite a fairly low usage rate. That's the other potential positive for Indy: Hill may be able to boost his role without much loss in efficiency, as there likely are more shots available with the Pacers.
Defensively, Hill's long arms are of more use at the 2 than the 1 even though he's undersized (6-foot-2, 180 lbs.). He held opposing shooting guards to an 11.1 PER, according to 82games.com. However, his overall defensive impact was harder to discern, as the Spurs didn't perform any better with him on the court and his Synergy data is middling.
Projection: 16.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.6 ast per 40 min; 14.30 PER | Player card
• Long-armed combo guard with tools to be excellent wing defender.
• Good spot-up shooter. Has handle for point guard but a scorer's mindset.
• Can slash to basket and draw fouls. Short for a 2. Slim build. Fairly athletic.
Hill played a lot of point guard in San Antonio last season but probably needs to become a full-time shooting guard. He may get the opportunity to do so in Indiana. Hill ranked just 61st among the league's 68 point guards in Pure Point Rating, and was 66th in Assist Ratio. Running an offense isn't his thing.
What he can do, however, is both snipe and slash. Hill can certainly shoot it, making 37.7 percent of his 3s, 40.8 percent on long 2s and 86.3 percent from the line last season. Playing off the ball may help his percentages further by giving him more shots off the catch. Additionally, Hill can get to the rim and draw fouls; despite taking a third of his shots from beyond the arc, he ranked seventh among point guards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt.
As a result, Hill ranked eighth at his position in TS%, and averaged 16.5 points per 40 minutes despite a fairly low usage rate. That's the other potential positive for Indy: Hill may be able to boost his role without much loss in efficiency, as there likely are more shots available with the Pacers.
Defensively, Hill's long arms are of more use at the 2 than the 1 even though he's undersized (6-foot-2, 180 lbs.). He held opposing shooting guards to an 11.1 PER, according to 82games.com. However, his overall defensive impact was harder to discern, as the Spurs didn't perform any better with him on the court and his Synergy data is middling.
JEFF FOSTER, C (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
Projection: 8.0 pts, 13.3 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min; 13.34 PER | Player card
• Quick, active big man who crashes offensive boards. No post game. Poor shooter.
• Moves well laterally and very effective guarding smaller players.
• Lacks muscle and limited offensively. Struggles with injuries.
Foster the Person continues to battle health problems, missing 26 games with injuries after missing nearly all of 2009-10, but when he plays he continues to be a very effective players. Foster's lateral movement for a player of his size is rare, and as a result he's one of the league's best big men at defending pick-and-rolls or guarding smaller players on switches. He doesn't fare as well in strength matchups, however, and isn't much of a shot-blocker.
Offensive Rebound Rate leaders, 2010-11
Player Team ORR
Jeff Foster Ind 19.1
Joey Dorsey Tor 17.5
Reggie Evans Tor 17.2
DeJuan Blair SA 14.8
Zach Randolph Mem 14.2
Min. 500 minutes
Offensively, Foster lacks a role because he's not much of a shooter and doesn't have a post game. Mainly he crashes the offensive glass and sets screens, many of which are illegal, although he cut his turnover rate considerably last season. Alas, Foster only averaged 8.0 points per 40 minutes with a poor shooting percentage; his lone redeeming quality was that he led the league in offensive rebound rate at a prodigious 19.1 (see chart); those second shots accounted for much of his limited scoring as well.
Foster is 34 and struggles to stay in the lineup but he was a very effective player last season, and has been pretty much any time he's been healthy. He's a bad offensive player but he knows it and stays out of the way, and defensively he's one of the most underrated players in the league. As a free agent, he could be a nice short-term pick-up for a contending team in search of frontcourt depth.
Projection: 8.0 pts, 13.3 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min; 13.34 PER | Player card
• Quick, active big man who crashes offensive boards. No post game. Poor shooter.
• Moves well laterally and very effective guarding smaller players.
• Lacks muscle and limited offensively. Struggles with injuries.
Foster the Person continues to battle health problems, missing 26 games with injuries after missing nearly all of 2009-10, but when he plays he continues to be a very effective players. Foster's lateral movement for a player of his size is rare, and as a result he's one of the league's best big men at defending pick-and-rolls or guarding smaller players on switches. He doesn't fare as well in strength matchups, however, and isn't much of a shot-blocker.
Offensive Rebound Rate leaders, 2010-11
Player Team ORR
Jeff Foster Ind 19.1
Joey Dorsey Tor 17.5
Reggie Evans Tor 17.2
DeJuan Blair SA 14.8
Zach Randolph Mem 14.2
Min. 500 minutes
Offensively, Foster lacks a role because he's not much of a shooter and doesn't have a post game. Mainly he crashes the offensive glass and sets screens, many of which are illegal, although he cut his turnover rate considerably last season. Alas, Foster only averaged 8.0 points per 40 minutes with a poor shooting percentage; his lone redeeming quality was that he led the league in offensive rebound rate at a prodigious 19.1 (see chart); those second shots accounted for much of his limited scoring as well.
Foster is 34 and struggles to stay in the lineup but he was a very effective player last season, and has been pretty much any time he's been healthy. He's a bad offensive player but he knows it and stays out of the way, and defensively he's one of the most underrated players in the league. As a free agent, he could be a nice short-term pick-up for a contending team in search of frontcourt depth.
BRANDON RUSH, SG
Projection: 13.9 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.5 ast per 40 min; 10.65 PER | Player card
• Quality defender with good size and athleticism. Lousy handle inhibits scoring.
• Good outside shooter and can finish at rim, but doesn't move without ball.
• Bad rebounder. Tends to float through games and vanish. No in-between game.
Rush can really shoot it -- he made 41.7 percent of his 3s last season and is at 40.2 percent for his career. Unfortunately, he has a singular inability to put himself in positions to score. Rush was 56th out of 66 shooting guards in usage rate and again posted awful ballhandling numbers (60th in Pure Point Rating) despite being asked to do little beyond long-range sniping. Normally players of that ilk have some of the lowest turnover rates in the league; Rush doesn't. He simply has to improve his ballhandling skills.
Another symptom of Rush's poor ballhandling and general inability to move without the ball was that he took only 93 shots at the rim in 1,760 minutes. This is simply unacceptable for a player with his athleticism; he shot 63.4 percent at the basket, but it didn't matter because he got only there about once every 20 minutes. The other players with rates this low were all pure catch-and-shoot players; Rush just can't find his way to the bucket.
Defensively, he's a plus -- he moves well, has a good body and ranked fourth among shooting guards in blocks per minute. He rarely gambles, resulting in low rates of steals but few fouls. Synergy Stats rated him among the top shooting guards in each of the past two seasons, and according to 82games.com opposing shooting guards only registered a 12.9 PER against him.
Despite the shooting and defense, Rush's plus-minus numbers are brutal. He had the fifth-worst on-court vs. off-court differential in the league, according to basketballvalue.com, and his two-year adjusted plus-minus is -4.91 points per 100 possessions. Some of that is conflated with his being a starter on a team with weak starters and a strong bench, but at a lot of it is because he's a 15-minute player who has been put in a 35-minute role the past two seasons.
Projection: 13.9 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.5 ast per 40 min; 10.65 PER | Player card
• Quality defender with good size and athleticism. Lousy handle inhibits scoring.
• Good outside shooter and can finish at rim, but doesn't move without ball.
• Bad rebounder. Tends to float through games and vanish. No in-between game.
Rush can really shoot it -- he made 41.7 percent of his 3s last season and is at 40.2 percent for his career. Unfortunately, he has a singular inability to put himself in positions to score. Rush was 56th out of 66 shooting guards in usage rate and again posted awful ballhandling numbers (60th in Pure Point Rating) despite being asked to do little beyond long-range sniping. Normally players of that ilk have some of the lowest turnover rates in the league; Rush doesn't. He simply has to improve his ballhandling skills.
Another symptom of Rush's poor ballhandling and general inability to move without the ball was that he took only 93 shots at the rim in 1,760 minutes. This is simply unacceptable for a player with his athleticism; he shot 63.4 percent at the basket, but it didn't matter because he got only there about once every 20 minutes. The other players with rates this low were all pure catch-and-shoot players; Rush just can't find his way to the bucket.
Defensively, he's a plus -- he moves well, has a good body and ranked fourth among shooting guards in blocks per minute. He rarely gambles, resulting in low rates of steals but few fouls. Synergy Stats rated him among the top shooting guards in each of the past two seasons, and according to 82games.com opposing shooting guards only registered a 12.9 PER against him.
Despite the shooting and defense, Rush's plus-minus numbers are brutal. He had the fifth-worst on-court vs. off-court differential in the league, according to basketballvalue.com, and his two-year adjusted plus-minus is -4.91 points per 100 possessions. Some of that is conflated with his being a starter on a team with weak starters and a strong bench, but at a lot of it is because he's a 15-minute player who has been put in a 35-minute role the past two seasons.
T.J. FORD, PG (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
Projection: 13.3 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.7 ast per 40 min; 10.75 PER | Player card
• Tiny, aggressive, up-tempo point guard who goes right nearly every time.
• Rebounds very well for size. Struggles on defense due to size, iffy effort.
• Has selfish reputation. Poor shooter, but will take jumpers early in clock.
Out of the league's 68 point guards, Ford was 67th in True Shooting Percentage, 67th in secondary percentage, 59th in turnover rate, 59th in shooting percentage and 60th in PER. No, it wasn't much of a year for Ford, and at 28 his career is in freefall at a time when he should be in his prime.
Ford appears to have a lost a step, which is a bad thing for a short speedster who is generously listed as 6-0. His usage rate dipped, his free throw rate fell sharply, and less than a quarter of his shots came at the rim. Ford averaged only 11.5 points per 40 minutes and shot terribly, as the TS% above shows; he's also basically stopped making 3s, converting only 14 in the past two seasons.
Ford's defensive effort was more consistent last season than in previous years, and he does help out on the glass. However, he also fouled too much and his size and lack of strength are obvious detriments against bigger guards.
But the biggest obstacle for Ford is his selfish reputation. He's no longer talented enough to call his own number every time he clears a pick going right, and his act clearly wore thin in Indiana. As a free agent, perhaps a fresh start someplace else will provide the needed wake-up call to revive his flagging career.
Projection: 13.3 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.7 ast per 40 min; 10.75 PER | Player card
• Tiny, aggressive, up-tempo point guard who goes right nearly every time.
• Rebounds very well for size. Struggles on defense due to size, iffy effort.
• Has selfish reputation. Poor shooter, but will take jumpers early in clock.
Out of the league's 68 point guards, Ford was 67th in True Shooting Percentage, 67th in secondary percentage, 59th in turnover rate, 59th in shooting percentage and 60th in PER. No, it wasn't much of a year for Ford, and at 28 his career is in freefall at a time when he should be in his prime.
Ford appears to have a lost a step, which is a bad thing for a short speedster who is generously listed as 6-0. His usage rate dipped, his free throw rate fell sharply, and less than a quarter of his shots came at the rim. Ford averaged only 11.5 points per 40 minutes and shot terribly, as the TS% above shows; he's also basically stopped making 3s, converting only 14 in the past two seasons.
Ford's defensive effort was more consistent last season than in previous years, and he does help out on the glass. However, he also fouled too much and his size and lack of strength are obvious detriments against bigger guards.
But the biggest obstacle for Ford is his selfish reputation. He's no longer talented enough to call his own number every time he clears a pick going right, and his act clearly wore thin in Indiana. As a free agent, perhaps a fresh start someplace else will provide the needed wake-up call to revive his flagging career.
DAHNTAY JONES, SG
Projection: 16.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.3 ast per 40 min; 11.73 PER | Player card
• Athletic wing with chops to be defensive stopper. Strong, good size.
• Strong driver, especially to right, who draws fouls. Highly turnover-prone.
• Shaky shooter with low release point. Too focused on offense and scoring.
Rescued from the end of the bench when Frank Vogel took over, Jones averaged nearly a point every two minutes and easily exceeded his career norms in all three shooting categories. Jones' prime skill is drawing fouls -- only three guards had a better rate of free throw attempts per field goal attempt -- but he also shot the 3 better than ever last season, and made an amazing 49 percent of his long 2s. Those numbers came in limited minutes and one shouldn't expect them to carry over, but it was an encouraging performance nonetheless.
Even with the scoring breakout, however, Jones's offense was iffy because he's so sloppy with the ball. He dribbles solely to score and doesn't see the floor, plus he gets out of control on the drive. As a result, he was only 58th among shooting guards in Pure Point Rating.
Jones has been focused on offense, but he could be an awesome stopper if he put his mind to it. Even now he's pretty good, as his physique and athleticism allow him to hang with anybody. But he takes too many gambles and fouls like nobody's business -- only one shooting guard fouled more often than his one per 8.4 minutes.
Projection: 16.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.3 ast per 40 min; 11.73 PER | Player card
• Athletic wing with chops to be defensive stopper. Strong, good size.
• Strong driver, especially to right, who draws fouls. Highly turnover-prone.
• Shaky shooter with low release point. Too focused on offense and scoring.
Rescued from the end of the bench when Frank Vogel took over, Jones averaged nearly a point every two minutes and easily exceeded his career norms in all three shooting categories. Jones' prime skill is drawing fouls -- only three guards had a better rate of free throw attempts per field goal attempt -- but he also shot the 3 better than ever last season, and made an amazing 49 percent of his long 2s. Those numbers came in limited minutes and one shouldn't expect them to carry over, but it was an encouraging performance nonetheless.
Even with the scoring breakout, however, Jones's offense was iffy because he's so sloppy with the ball. He dribbles solely to score and doesn't see the floor, plus he gets out of control on the drive. As a result, he was only 58th among shooting guards in Pure Point Rating.
Jones has been focused on offense, but he could be an awesome stopper if he put his mind to it. Even now he's pretty good, as his physique and athleticism allow him to hang with anybody. But he takes too many gambles and fouls like nobody's business -- only one shooting guard fouled more often than his one per 8.4 minutes.
MIKE DUNLEAVY, SF (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
Projection: 15.4 pts, 6.5 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min; 13.26 PER | Player card
• Heady wing player with good handle for size. Takes lots of charges.
• Poor athlete who has had knee problems. Really struggles in 1-on-1 D.
• Likes catch-and-shoot, but average shooter. Moves very well without ball.
Playing out of position at shooting guard for much of the season, Dunleavy often found himself in impossible defensive predicaments; he's challenged enough keeping up with small forwards, but fleet shooting guards treated him as a traffic cone. Nonetheless, his heady team defense helped make him a solid performer overall defensively; he just can't be asked to check talented wings by himself. Dunleavy takes charges by the bushel and reads opposing plays as well as anyone in the league, plus his improved rates of blocks and rebounds are indicators that his balky knee was feeling a lot better.
Offensively, Dunleavy had one of his better shooting seasons too. Although he likes to play catch-and-shoot, he's not a particularly good shooter at just 36.1 percent career on 3s; last season that improved to 40.2 percent. Additionally, he made 44.4 percent of his long 2s and drew a very high rate of fouls for a jump shooter. Overall his True Shooting Percentage ranked seventh among shooting guards, plus he created enough shots to score at healthy 16.2 points per 40 minutes.
Health concerns remain paramount -- even last season he played only 61 games, and he's missed 100 over the past three seasons. But if he's playing his natural 3 spot and getting some jumpers to go down, Dunleavy has a lot left to give.
Projection: 15.4 pts, 6.5 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min; 13.26 PER | Player card
• Heady wing player with good handle for size. Takes lots of charges.
• Poor athlete who has had knee problems. Really struggles in 1-on-1 D.
• Likes catch-and-shoot, but average shooter. Moves very well without ball.
Playing out of position at shooting guard for much of the season, Dunleavy often found himself in impossible defensive predicaments; he's challenged enough keeping up with small forwards, but fleet shooting guards treated him as a traffic cone. Nonetheless, his heady team defense helped make him a solid performer overall defensively; he just can't be asked to check talented wings by himself. Dunleavy takes charges by the bushel and reads opposing plays as well as anyone in the league, plus his improved rates of blocks and rebounds are indicators that his balky knee was feeling a lot better.
Offensively, Dunleavy had one of his better shooting seasons too. Although he likes to play catch-and-shoot, he's not a particularly good shooter at just 36.1 percent career on 3s; last season that improved to 40.2 percent. Additionally, he made 44.4 percent of his long 2s and drew a very high rate of fouls for a jump shooter. Overall his True Shooting Percentage ranked seventh among shooting guards, plus he created enough shots to score at healthy 16.2 points per 40 minutes.
Health concerns remain paramount -- even last season he played only 61 games, and he's missed 100 over the past three seasons. But if he's playing his natural 3 spot and getting some jumpers to go down, Dunleavy has a lot left to give.
A.J. PRICE, G
Projection: 16.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 5.3 ast per 40 min; 11.74 PER | Player card
• Shoot-first, pick-and-roll point guard who can make long Js off dribble.
• Average size and athleticism; struggles to defend quality players.
• Needs to improve distribution and get to rim. More "scorer" than "shooter."
After recovering surprisingly quickly from an offseason knee injury, Price shot only 35.6 percent in 50 games -- pretty much submarining any progress he made in other areas, although he did play very well in the first-round playoff series against Chicago. Price took nearly half his shots from behind the arc but made a ghastly 27.5 percent. He also suffered from a shocking inability to get to the rim for a score-first guard, taking only 29 of his 320 shots in the basket area. Considering his assist ratio was also the eighth-worst at his position, he needs to be a much more potent scoring threat.
One can expect Price's long-range shooting numbers to bounce back, but the rest of his game still screams "backup." He'll stretch the defense and create shots with his pick-and-roll game, and he at least tries on defense. But his average athleticism makes it difficult for him to generate easy hoops on offense and leaves him vulnerable when he tries to pressure the ball defensively.
Projection: 16.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 5.3 ast per 40 min; 11.74 PER | Player card
• Shoot-first, pick-and-roll point guard who can make long Js off dribble.
• Average size and athleticism; struggles to defend quality players.
• Needs to improve distribution and get to rim. More "scorer" than "shooter."
After recovering surprisingly quickly from an offseason knee injury, Price shot only 35.6 percent in 50 games -- pretty much submarining any progress he made in other areas, although he did play very well in the first-round playoff series against Chicago. Price took nearly half his shots from behind the arc but made a ghastly 27.5 percent. He also suffered from a shocking inability to get to the rim for a score-first guard, taking only 29 of his 320 shots in the basket area. Considering his assist ratio was also the eighth-worst at his position, he needs to be a much more potent scoring threat.
One can expect Price's long-range shooting numbers to bounce back, but the rest of his game still screams "backup." He'll stretch the defense and create shots with his pick-and-roll game, and he at least tries on defense. But his average athleticism makes it difficult for him to generate easy hoops on offense and leaves him vulnerable when he tries to pressure the ball defensively.
JAMES POSEY, SF
Projection: 9.7 pts, 6.7 reb, 1.6 ast per 40 min; 6.39 PER | Player card
• Cagey, defensive-minded combo forward with knack for taking charges.
• Average shooter. Takes corner 3s and does little else offensively.
• Looked overweight. Good rebounder but athleticism waning.
Posey still can have his moments -- like when he took three charges in a quarter in a game against Cleveland -- but his offensive production is so miniscule that it's tough to justify leaving him on the court for his defense and rebounding.
Basically, he does little besides shoot 3s, and he stopped making them. Posey converted only 31.6 percent last season, but he led the NBA by taking 88 percent of his shots from behind the arc (see chart). In a related story, he had the lowest rate of free throw attempts per field goal attempt in basketball (see Jamario Moon comment).
Most 3-point attempts per field goal attempt, 2010-11
Player Team 3A/FGA
James Posey Ind 0.88
Brian Cardinal Dal 0.87
Daequan Cook OKC 0.85
James Jones Mia 0.83
Keith Bogans Chi 0.77
Min. 500 minutes
Posey again had a massive disparity between offensive and defensive rebounding -- his defensive rebound rate ranked seventh-best, his offensive rate second-worst. But in sum, a 48.5 True Shooting Percentage won't cut it for an alleged sniper, especially since he's lost some of his mojo on defense due to the ravages of time and his fairly obvious added weight.
Projection: 9.7 pts, 6.7 reb, 1.6 ast per 40 min; 6.39 PER | Player card
• Cagey, defensive-minded combo forward with knack for taking charges.
• Average shooter. Takes corner 3s and does little else offensively.
• Looked overweight. Good rebounder but athleticism waning.
Posey still can have his moments -- like when he took three charges in a quarter in a game against Cleveland -- but his offensive production is so miniscule that it's tough to justify leaving him on the court for his defense and rebounding.
Basically, he does little besides shoot 3s, and he stopped making them. Posey converted only 31.6 percent last season, but he led the NBA by taking 88 percent of his shots from behind the arc (see chart). In a related story, he had the lowest rate of free throw attempts per field goal attempt in basketball (see Jamario Moon comment).
Most 3-point attempts per field goal attempt, 2010-11
Player Team 3A/FGA
James Posey Ind 0.88
Brian Cardinal Dal 0.87
Daequan Cook OKC 0.85
James Jones Mia 0.83
Keith Bogans Chi 0.77
Min. 500 minutes
Posey again had a massive disparity between offensive and defensive rebounding -- his defensive rebound rate ranked seventh-best, his offensive rate second-worst. But in sum, a 48.5 True Shooting Percentage won't cut it for an alleged sniper, especially since he's lost some of his mojo on defense due to the ravages of time and his fairly obvious added weight.
JOSH McROBERTS, F (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
Projection: 13.6 pts, 9.6 reb, 3.7 ast per 40 min; 15.88 PER | Player card
• Quick-leaping lefty power forward with explosive hops and great court vision..
• Mediocre shooter but will fire set shot if left open. Likes to dribble out rebounds.
• Turnover-prone. Below-average defender. Needs to improve strength, quickness.
"McBobs" had several highlight-reel dunks and shot blocks that made him a crowd pleaser, and those dunks help him rank fifth among all power forwards in True Shooting Percentage. He also wasn't afraid to fire from the perimeter if left open; while he shot infrequently, he hit 40.4 percent from 16-23 feet and 38.3 percent of his rare 3-pointers. Nonetheless, it was at the basket (68.8 percent) where he did most of his damage.
McRoberts can handle and pass, skills which present a danger to both teams. While he can find the open man (fourth among power forwards in assist rate), he often tries to create plays that aren't there and makes sloppy turnovers.
Finally, McRoberts has to defend better. He's a bit of a tweener and struggles guarding physical 4s; plus, while he can leap quickly, his lateral quickness is just average. His rates of blocks and steals were strong, but opposing 4s blistered him for an 18.7 PER.
Projection: 13.6 pts, 9.6 reb, 3.7 ast per 40 min; 15.88 PER | Player card
• Quick-leaping lefty power forward with explosive hops and great court vision..
• Mediocre shooter but will fire set shot if left open. Likes to dribble out rebounds.
• Turnover-prone. Below-average defender. Needs to improve strength, quickness.
"McBobs" had several highlight-reel dunks and shot blocks that made him a crowd pleaser, and those dunks help him rank fifth among all power forwards in True Shooting Percentage. He also wasn't afraid to fire from the perimeter if left open; while he shot infrequently, he hit 40.4 percent from 16-23 feet and 38.3 percent of his rare 3-pointers. Nonetheless, it was at the basket (68.8 percent) where he did most of his damage.
McRoberts can handle and pass, skills which present a danger to both teams. While he can find the open man (fourth among power forwards in assist rate), he often tries to create plays that aren't there and makes sloppy turnovers.
Finally, McRoberts has to defend better. He's a bit of a tweener and struggles guarding physical 4s; plus, while he can leap quickly, his lateral quickness is just average. His rates of blocks and steals were strong, but opposing 4s blistered him for an 18.7 PER.
SOLOMON JONES, C (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
Projection: 10.9 pts, 8.4 reb, 2.1 ast per 40 min; 9.27 PER | Player card
• Long, slender big man with soft touch on short-range shots. Can block shots.
• High base and lack of strength a major problem defensively. Easily outmuscled.
• Struggles handling the ball; constantly misfires passes. Bad instincts and hands.
Jones can have some value if he makes shots, but shooting 40.5 percent he's worthless. He has to at least provide a high-percentage offensive component because the rest of his game is so weak. Literally. Out of 67 centers, he was 61st in defensive rebound rate and had the fourth-highest foul rate, one every 5.6 minutes. His lack of strength combined with slow reactions and average quickness make it very difficult for him to compete at that end despite his length.
Jones has good straight-line speed and can provide energy running the floor, but he has little value in the halfcourt. He has no post game and can't take advantage of mismatches, and the Pacers' attempts to have him operate from the high post often ended in head-slapping turnovers that yielded 2-on-none breaks the other way. Basically, he's a 12th man, but he'll probably hang on to the league's fringe for another year or two.
Projection: 10.9 pts, 8.4 reb, 2.1 ast per 40 min; 9.27 PER | Player card
• Long, slender big man with soft touch on short-range shots. Can block shots.
• High base and lack of strength a major problem defensively. Easily outmuscled.
• Struggles handling the ball; constantly misfires passes. Bad instincts and hands.
Jones can have some value if he makes shots, but shooting 40.5 percent he's worthless. He has to at least provide a high-percentage offensive component because the rest of his game is so weak. Literally. Out of 67 centers, he was 61st in defensive rebound rate and had the fourth-highest foul rate, one every 5.6 minutes. His lack of strength combined with slow reactions and average quickness make it very difficult for him to compete at that end despite his length.
Jones has good straight-line speed and can provide energy running the floor, but he has little value in the halfcourt. He has no post game and can't take advantage of mismatches, and the Pacers' attempts to have him operate from the high post often ended in head-slapping turnovers that yielded 2-on-none breaks the other way. Basically, he's a 12th man, but he'll probably hang on to the league's fringe for another year or two.
LANCE STEPHENSON, C
No projection | Player card
• Average athlete with good handle, superior strength, solid midrange shot.
• Character, commitment major questions. Selfish. Makes bad decisions with ball.
• Needs to improve long-range shot mechanics. Rebounds well. Can post up.
Stephenson played only 115 minutes, nearly all in garbage time, so we didn't learn much about him from his rookie campaign. He shot badly and made a ton of turnovers, but his assist rate was huge for a shooting guard and he rebounded well. None of which, in a sample that small, means much of anything.
Big picture, Stephenson probably has to shoot better to stick. Right now he shapes up as Quentin Richardson with a better handle, a worse attitude and without the jumper; that won't get folks very excited. If he stays out of trouble and force defenses to honor his shot, he'll have a career.
No projection | Player card
• Average athlete with good handle, superior strength, solid midrange shot.
• Character, commitment major questions. Selfish. Makes bad decisions with ball.
• Needs to improve long-range shot mechanics. Rebounds well. Can post up.
Stephenson played only 115 minutes, nearly all in garbage time, so we didn't learn much about him from his rookie campaign. He shot badly and made a ton of turnovers, but his assist rate was huge for a shooting guard and he rebounded well. None of which, in a sample that small, means much of anything.
Big picture, Stephenson probably has to shoot better to stick. Right now he shapes up as Quentin Richardson with a better handle, a worse attitude and without the jumper; that won't get folks very excited. If he stays out of trouble and force defenses to honor his shot, he'll have a career.
Why so SERIOUS 
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