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Thread: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

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    Running with the Big Boys BillS's Avatar
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    Default Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    It's a real question.

    On one of the many threads this week, someone (and I can't remember who or I'd quote it) said something to the effect of, "if a player fits your need he isn't overpaid".

    That's obviously an oversimplification, but we get off on this topic for a lot of our discussions. Is a player overpaid under some of these circumstances:

    - if he fills the final niche a team needs to win a championship?
    - if the team makes a profit even after paying him a high salary?
    - if a less productive player makes more money?
    - if he was a low draft pick putting up the same numbers as a higher draft pick?
    - if others at his draft position are more productive?
    - if he is a fan favorite?

    and there are probably lots more.

    It just strikes me that "thus-and-so is overpaid" is easy to say, but I think everyone means something different when they say it.

    I think it is also common to assess a player on your own team as overpaid, but how do you really make that judgement for a player on another team? Is it based on what they bring to THEIR team or what they would bring to YOUR team?
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    Rebound King Kstat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    I think you're trying a bit hard to rationalize the contract of whoever the Pacers get before they actually get him...

    Being overpaid and being a bad acquisition are two different things, though.

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    Running with the Big Boys BillS's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    I think you're trying a bit hard to rationalize the contract of whoever the Pacers get before they actually get him....


    Maybe, because one of the things I left out is "if you are a small market and have to pay more than a NY or LA would have to pay".

    But I'm looking more for other people's answers.
    BillS

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    Member pacers74's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Ask Detroit Pistons fans. I think they have a couple of guys who fit the overpaid bill.

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    Rebound King Kstat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Just wait and see who they get first, and for how much.

    One thing I brought up in the other thread is, if you go out and get Gasol or Nene for near-max money, Roy Hibbert won't be asking for any less next year.
    Last edited by Kstat; 12-02-2011 at 05:00 PM.

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    Rooting My Family 2 Glory CooperManning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    A Wintermute post that addressed this topic, I endorse it.


    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Some thoughts...

    Benchmarking Nene's upcoming $14m+ salary against Aldridge's $12m makes as much sense as saying that Nene would have been cheaper than Murphleavy. Aldridge is on a nice contract; if he were on the market now, he'd be getting a max deal. You might as well say you'd rather have LeBron at $15m than Nene at $14m - true, but that deal isn't available.

    Whichever player we end up getting, what's important is that we get relative value. Is Nene at $14m expensive while West at $8m is cheap? The absolute dollar values don't matter; what does matter is whether other GMs think they are worth those deals. If you can easily move Nene at $14m, but you find that West at $8m to be unmovable, then the first is a good deal while the second isn't. By the way, for the record I consider $14m to be expensive for Nene and $8m to be reasonable for West. But I can understand why other teams might be more willing to pay a premium for Nene.

    Value for money is all important. Signing a mediocre player for small dollars could still be a bad deal (cf. Dahntay) if no one else were willing to pay him that much. The best that can be said about small bad contracts is that they aren't crippling, but they don't help either. Fortunately for the Pacers, they've brought in a consultant who has a nice track record getting value from FA. That would be Pritchard, who in 2009 went for need first and tried to sign Hedo (which failed, fortunately for Pritchard). Portland then looked for value, signing Millsap to an offer sheet (matched by Utah, but still regarded as one of the best bargains in the league) and then finally landing Andre Miller, who Portland has since managed to turn into Felton. Then in 2010, Pritchard signed Wes Matthews to one of the few MLE contracts which can be considered a good deal, and now Matthews is a trade asset for Portland.

    This is the kind of approach I hope to see us take in FA, especially since it doesn't look like there's a perfect fit for us out there. Grab a few assets, and either they'll work out here long term or you can turn them into picks + cap space for another try at FA next year.

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    Rebound King Kstat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Quote Originally Posted by pacers74 View Post
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    Ask Detroit Pistons fans. I think they have a couple of guys who fit the overpaid bill.
    bingo.

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    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Quote Originally Posted by CooperManning View Post
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    A Wintermute post that addressed this topic, I endorse it.
    Thanks Yeah, it's the market definition of overpaid/underpaid

    To expand a bit further Bill, I think all those things you listed are rationalizations for overpaying a player. It doesn't stop that player being regarded as overpaid, though.
    Last edited by wintermute; 12-02-2011 at 05:00 PM.

  10. #9

    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Someone who is paid alot but does not have any positive impact on the team. I would consider that overpaid. Case in point, Troy Murphy.

    If we sign some guy to alot of dough and he improves our record and plays a significant role in taking us deep in the playoffs. Well, it's worth it to us as fans then.

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    Chairman of the Boards 90'sNBARocked's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Who is overpaid?

    Every NBA player
    Sittin on top of the world!

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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    (Team needs including cap and position.)

    In general - market value vs player production.

    Best available player vs market value vs team needs.

    If one strays to far above market value, one puts themselves in a high probability of failure.

    The following...based on say 20% overpaying market value... The better the player, the more you spend. The more you spend the bigger the failure.

    You know you have failed when the contract is to high, to long and you can't rid off it, doesn't matter on team needs when you jeopardize the teams future. This happens all to often to all teams.

    Unfortunately, it's a slippery slope appraising humans. Kind of like a box of chocolates...you never know what your gonna get.

    Craps anyone!

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    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Every single situation is different. So, only very high level rules apply and not all the time.

    One clear situation is where you overpay for a player who is "the last piece" for a ring.

    But in today's NBA where the stars pick and choose where they will play, an NBA championship for 75% of the teams is not attainable. The only realistic prize is a decent playoff run. Perhaps they compete in the ECF, for example.

    So, for the Pacers and most NBA teams, overpaying for a borderline all-star such that you make the playoffs is the best you can hope for. Really, competing in the ECF is about as good as it's getting...so if you can get that last piece to get past the 2nd round...you do it.

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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?




    this
    Last edited by pacer4ever; 12-02-2011 at 07:32 PM.

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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    I think you're trying a bit hard to rationalize the contract of whoever the Pacers get before they actually get him...
    I would argue it could every bit be in reaction to SI calling Danny overpaid.

    Being overpaid and being a bad acquisition are two different things, though.
    True.
    Come to the Dark Side -- There's cookies!

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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Pay should be regarded with regard to monetary replacement value.

    How much does it cost to replace player X's total contribution?

    How much does player x contribute to team's revenue?

    If player x gets you into 4 playoff games then how much revenue can be attributed to player x?

    How many seats does player x account for?

    If we are strictly talking pay then we should be talking exactly how much player x's presence generates.

    Talk to shoe companies and they will be able to tell you exactly whether a player is over or underpaid.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Thanks Yeah, it's the market definition of overpaid/underpaid

    To expand a bit further Bill, I think all those things you listed are rationalizations for overpaying a player. It doesn't stop that player being regarded as overpaid, though.
    I totally agree too, and it applies every year when "paying" with a pick.

    People that love Tyler continue to stand by "Larry got who he wanted so they didn't overpay", and that could go for whatever player you draft (Rush perhaps). But that's never true if you were the only one that wanted him that bad, and at that point you are basically bidding against yourself.

    If a guy is going undrafted and you really want him so you pick him 5th, you overpaid even if you "got the guy you wanted". Just like if I really want a $20K car and pay $100K for it instead I didn't get a good deal even though I did get the car I wanted and even if it is worth $100K to me.

    Sure you have that angle of "we thought other people would pay that too", but that's still the same thing. You just misunderstood the market and in all areas of dealing/buying/etc the "winner" is the person that reads the market well and does nothing but pickup the bargains.

    Bargains don't mean "low pay average players" either. They mean the cheapest, best dollar per production type of role player at every role, including star scorer and going all the way down to 5 foul big man.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Quote Originally Posted by 90'sNBARocked View Post
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    Who is overpaid?

    Every NBA player
    All Americans

    - signed 3rd World workers



    It's relative and the players are simply making a PERCENTAGE OF THE BUSINESS INCOME. You watched the game on the channel that sold the advertising that was bought because you would be watching the game.

    The market sets the price, and the market is the people. Teachers SHOULD make more than NBA players, but people don't agree (in mass at least) enough to set the market prices that way.

    When "Intro to Calculus" gets higher ratings than Lakers vs Heat then you'll see professors getting $15m a year to teach. And that's coming from someone who might sometimes watch Nova instead of an NBA game. I accept the pay grade for NBA players because they do earn it according to more NBA crazy countries than just the US.

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    Member SycamoreKen's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    I think this is a good question is what the owners tried to paint the lockout as being about. If I am the owner/GM of a team, I would not pay anyone in this FA group near max money unless, as many have said, they were the missing piece that came as close to guaranteeing a title that is possible. I know it isn't Nene's fault, but if the owners want to right the ship, they need to individually draw a line and say paying a very good player a near or max contract is not worth it.

    Why should non-difference makers get max deals? Have you ever seen Nene win a game? Has he ever been "the man?" Then why a max deal? You might argue, "well the market sets the rate, so it should happen." I would argue again, that sort of thinking caused the lock out. To turn around a few days after ending it and doing the same dumb thing makes no sense. How these second level players are handled during the next couple of weeks says more about the state of the game and any real changes than the high profile things the super stars are doing.

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    The Doctor's In The House TheDon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Pretty sure if you look in the dictionary at overpaid there is a picture of joe johnson there waving emphatically.

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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDon View Post
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    Pretty sure if you look in the dictionary at overpaid there is a picture of joe johnson there waving emphatically.
    Not right now, no. When he reaches the end of that contract however, all probability is yes. He will be 35 years old and making 25 mil that year. In the mean time, if Nene gets anywhere near 14 mil in the open market, Joe is certainly worth the 18 he is getting this year.

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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Quote Originally Posted by 90'sNBARocked View Post
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    Who is overpaid?

    Every NBA player
    theoretically, every NBA player (or at least the vast majority of them) are underpaid. They would receive a lot more if the NBA allowed an open market

  25. #22

    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    I'm a same one name and one name only...rashard Lewis from the Washington wizards!

    Well I don't even know who that is....

    Nobody knows who he is but he's overpaid...

    What, know hes not ...

    HES MAKING TO MUCH MONEY!

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    Default Re: Just what IS overpaid, anyway?

    Here is a nice photo Gallery of overpay players in the NBA, Posey is mentioned.



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