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Thread: Hibbert's past as prologue

  1. #1
    Intuition over Integers McKeyFan's Avatar
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    Default Hibbert's past as prologue

    In the current trade and acquisition talk now re-emerging, a major factor to the discussion is the question of whether Hibbert will continue to seriously improve.

    I have my doubts. I have been a major Roy fan since the beginning but have waned in the past year or so, mainly because it is appearing to me that Roy's issues are not skill and physical development, where he will improve due to his work ethic. They are mental and psychological. When the game is on the line, and in big games like the playoffs, Roy just doesn't seem to be able to play well. He does not seem to be clutch, not a "gamer."

    If so, as much as I love him, I'd rather invest elsewhere.

    Yes, those mental and psychological matters could be improved as well, I suppose. But here is my question:

    What do we know about this question from Roy's past? At Georgetown, did he become more of a factor late in games as a junior and senior? Did he win games in the last minute? Did he help the team become a winner?

    Or, instead, did he put up better numbers each year but not show up during big games and key moments?

    Same with high school. What do we know about Roy's past that will help us with seeing the future?
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

  2. #2
    billbradley
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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    In the current trade and acquisition talk now re-emerging, a major factor to the discussion is the question of whether Hibbert will continue to seriously improve.

    I have my doubts. I have been a major Roy fan since the beginning but have waned in the past year or so, mainly because it is appearing to me that Roy's issues are not skill and physical development, where he will improve due to his work ethic. They are mental and psychological. When the game is on the line, and in big games like the playoffs, Roy just doesn't seem to be able to play well. He does not seem to be clutch, not a "gamer."

    If so, as much as I love him, I'd rather invest elsewhere.

    Yes, those mental and psychological matters could be improved as well, I suppose. But here is my question:

    What do we know about this question from Roy's past? At Georgetown, did he become more of a factor late in games as a junior and senior? Did he win games in the last minute? Did he help the team become a winner?

    Or, instead, did he put up better numbers each year but not show up during big games and key moments?

    Same with high school. What do we know about Roy's past that will help us with seeing the future?

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    HE HIT! HE HIT! HE HIT! glazedham42's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Most NBA big men start to hit their peak by the 3rd year. It just takes a long time for centers to develop. Go back and look at the stat lines from some above average centers of the past. Most don't really develop until year 3. Unless you are one of the all time greats like Olajuwon, Ewing, Shaq, Robinson, then expect that learning curve. I think this is the year that Roy finally becomes a consistent threat to the other team on both ends. Even more so when you consider all the work he has been putting in to get his body ready.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Look how long it took Smits to become a good center.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Rik Smits vs. Roy Hibbert:
    Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Years 1-3

    Roy's right on pace with Rik through their first three seasons. In fact, he actually had a better third-year─Roy's continued to improve each season, whereas Rik took a noticeable step back from year two to year three. Also, Roy's a significantly better rebounder than Rik was, especially on the offensive glass (12.2% vs. 5.4% of available offensive rebounds).

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    I'll give him one more year to show me what he can do, I like the guy a lot but if we can make a trade where we get an starting center we do it.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    He did rebound slightly better last year. And his post defense was a lot better. I don't expect him to be a yearly all-star. But 14 ppg/8rpg/2bpg on 48%+ shooting is not asking for much.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I'll give him one more year to show me what he can do, I like the guy a lot but if we can make a trade where we get an starting center we do it.
    If we can make a trade where we get a starting center without giving up the rest of our developing pieces I'll be extremely surprised.
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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    He disappointingly faded/acted small during the playoffs last year. He also had the chance to pull quite a few game winning buckets during the regular season and mostly came up short.

    McKey, I think you're right on point asking this question about him... but what realistically are our alternatives at this point? Are you suggesting that we'd be bigger players in the Nene/Gasol conversation if we had no long term plans to stick with Hibbs? Not so sure, especially given that his best deal/future lies with us.

    7'2" doesn't grow on trees. Especially healthy, hard working, good head on shoulders 7'2". I think we'll have Hibbs on our team for a long time to come, but whether the front office will properly value his contribution (like they did with Granger) is one unanswered question, and the other is whether he'll be part of a larger frontcourt committee vs. "the clear answer".
    Last edited by docpaul; 11-28-2011 at 11:46 AM.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Quote Originally Posted by glazedham42 View Post
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    Most NBA big men start to hit their peak by the 3rd year. It just takes a long time for centers to develop. Go back and look at the stat lines from some above average centers of the past. Most don't really develop until year 3. Unless you are one of the all time greats like Olajuwon, Ewing, Shaq, Robinson, then expect that learning curve. I think this is the year that Roy finally becomes a consistent threat to the other team on both ends. Even more so when you consider all the work he has been putting in to get his body ready.

    The thing that will always limit Roy is that he just isn't a top athlete. He's always going to be a little slow and less agile than the elite level guys. He doesn't have the ceiling of the guys you mention above.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Quote Originally Posted by GrangeRusHibbert View Post
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    Rik Smits vs. Roy Hibbert:
    Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Years 1-3

    Roy's right on pace with Rik through their first three seasons. In fact, he actually had a better third-year─Roy's continued to improve each season, whereas Rik took a noticeable step back from year two to year three. Also, Roy's a significantly better rebounder than Rik was, especially on the offensive glass (12.2% vs. 5.4% of available offensive rebounds).

    Difference was that Rik was the 3rd offensive option as opposed to Roy being the #2 option.

    Also, Rik played with an excellent defensive 4 who grabbed a ton of rebounds. Roy doesn't.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Why are people acting like there are a ton of centers out there better than Roy, and that those centers would be able to be acquired at a reasonable price. Roy has a really unique skillset in todays league and has improved every year, no need to move him.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    I dont know about everyone else, but I am REALLY glad that the former head coach of the Pacers apparently never saw that video of Roy hitting the 3.
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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Quote Originally Posted by aaronb View Post
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    Difference was that Rik was the 3rd offensive option as opposed to Roy being the #2 option.

    Also, Rik played with an excellent defensive 4 who grabbed a ton of rebounds. Roy doesn't.
    The number of shots per game (FGA and FTA) and their usage rates (percentage of offensive possessions they use) through their first three seasons are nearly identical, so I don't buy the whole "offensive option" excuse. To me, that comes across as a highly contrived excuse designed to discredit the Roy/Rik comparison.

    As for you second point, if you're referring to Dale Davis, he didn't come along until Rik's fourth season ('91-'92). The Pacers' leading rebounders through Rik's first three seasons were (in yearly order): Lasalle Thompson (9.9; in only 33-games) and Detlef Schrempf, twice (7.9 and 8.0). Not exactly big time rebounders who would be cutting into Rik's totals.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Quote Originally Posted by Sandman21 View Post
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    I dont know about everyone else, but I am REALLY glad that the former head coach of the Pacers apparently never saw that video of Roy hitting the 3.
    Oh good lord... McBob was enough for me.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Quote Originally Posted by GrangeRusHibbert View Post
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    The number of shots per game (FGA and FTA) and their usage rates (percentage of offensive possessions they use) through their first three seasons are nearly identical, so I don't buy the whole "offensive option" excuse. To me, that comes across as a highly contrived excuse designed to discredit the Roy/Rik comparison.

    As for you second point, if you're referring to Dale Davis, he didn't come along until Rik's fourth season ('91-'92). The Pacers' leading rebounders through Rik's first three seasons were (in yearly order): Lasalle Thompson (9.9; in only 33-games) and Detlef Schrempf, twice (7.9 and 8.0). Not exactly big time rebounders who would be cutting into Rik's totals.

    Totally fair.

    I actually think the the upper end of Roy's ceiling is to be Rik Smits 2.0

    I've long had that opinion. I just think Rik was the better player.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Quote Originally Posted by daschysta View Post
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    Why are people acting like there are a ton of centers out there better than Roy, and that those centers would be able to be acquired at a reasonable price. Roy has a really unique skillset in todays league and has improved every year, no need to move him.
    Thank you! I already grown tired of these "Let's trade our most promising player for a mariginally 'established' players" viewpoints. From the time that Roy Hibbert has come into league, he has shown to me time after time that he's willing to learn and improve his game. IMHO, the only mistake that he made in his development was losing weight, but it's my understanding that he has gained some of it back.

    http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/pl...sition/centers

    When I look at the above list, Hibbert was 10TH in scoring among centers last season. Not 24th...not 17th...not 35th....he was 10TH in scoring. Even when you change some of the various stats, Roy is in the Top 10 for quite a few desireable categories and Top 15 for others. Is Roy a Dwight Howard? Clearly not, but is Roy a Shawn Bradley. Hell no!

    As for his pyschological makeup...let's NOT pretend that Roy was the ONLY player affect by JOB's poor interpersonal skills.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    They better not trade him, or else it's gonna get REAL awkward up in Area 55 this year.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Quote Originally Posted by ksuttonjr76 View Post
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    When I look at the above list, Hibbert was 10TH in scoring among centers last season. Not 24th...not 17th...not 35th....he was 10TH in scoring.
    All nine of the centers ranked ahead of him played more minutes-per-game, too. Most of them significantly more.

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    HE HIT! HE HIT! HE HIT! glazedham42's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    I just don't understand why anyone would trade him at this point. He continues to improve. It's not like he's regressing in front of our eyes. Moving him now is just taking a gamble because of a lack of patience. We are at the point now where we will start reaping the rewards of the Hibbert project. We knew coming in that Roy was a project. This is the year that it will finally take shape. He's young, doesn't miss games, spent the entire lockout in the weight room, loves the city, loves the fans, says all the right things, wants to win, is self motivated, gets along with the other guys. I think his work in the weight room is going to surprise a LOT of people this season. I think his rebounding and field goal % will benefit greatly from his strength work in the extended offseason we just had.

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  33. #21
    Wasting Light Hicks's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    I still believe in Roy Hibbert.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Quote Originally Posted by GrangeRusHibbert View Post
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    All nine of the centers ranked ahead of him played more minutes-per-game, too. Most of them significantly more.
    Good catch. I didn't even noticed that the first time.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    I still believe in Roy Hibbert.
    I believe in Roy but if we have a chance to upgrade we have to pull the plug.

  37. #24
    billbradley
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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    Nobody works harder than Roy Hibbert. That fact coupled with growing talents and fan friendly attitude make Hibbert a keeper. We would be crazy to trade a top 10 center on a rookie contract with Hibert's potential in a league landscape deprived of fives. Unless we get two starters in return, we keep Hibby.

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    Default Re: Hibbert's past as prologue

    I am skeptical about Hibbert. He had a great November, but the majority of the season he seemed to have a negative effect on the game. I agree that you need to give big guys time to develop and this will be the year to decide if we continue to build around Roy.

    Especially now that Jim is no longer coaching!

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