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Thread: The Top 593 Players of 2012

  1. #1
    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default The Top 593 Players of 2012

    ... according to Basketball Reference blogger Neil Paine, who ranks every player who's played in the last 3 seasons, using a basket of stats, including PER, Win Shares, and 2 variants of plus/minus.

    Usual caveats apply. Stats can be misleading, there's some arbitrariness going on in how stats are applied, etc. Could make for fun discussion though.

    So, here's the list:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9780

    Here's how the Pacers are ranked:
    Code:
     Rank     Player
     35       Granger
     80       Foster
     92       McRoberts
     96       Hibbert
    138       Dunleavy
    151       Hansbrough
    225       Collison
    275       George
    392       Ford
    437       Posey
    441       D. Jones
    472       Price
    491       Stephenson
    508       Rush
    523       S. Jones
    Not a very inspiring list. New acquisition George Hill is at 115.

    In comparison, this what a few elite teams look like:

    Dallas
    Code:
     Rank     Player
      6       Nowitzki
     28       Chandler
     68       Kidd
     79       Terry
    105       Marion
    Miami
    Code:
     Rank     Player
      1       James
      3       Wade
     13       Bosh
    177       Haslem
    305       Ilgauskas
    Chicago
    Code:
     Rank     Player
     17       Rose
     31       Boozer
     35       Noah
     48       Deng
    109       Korver
    By this measure, we're a good long way from becoming an elite team.

    I also thought it would be interesting to take a look at the ranks of potential free agent targets. Here are some of the guys we've talked about on the board:

    FA targets
    Code:
     Rank     Player
     14       Nene
     28       Chandler
     40       West
     77       Hayes
     98       Landry
    108       Humphries
    By this measure, Nene, Chandler, and West would all be very solid additions to the team.

    And lastly, here's a look at some potential trade targets that occasionally come up on the board.

    Trade targets?
    Code:
     Rank     Player
     27       Josh Smith
     37       Millsap
     57       Varejao
     67       Al Jefferson
     74       Okafor
    222       Speights
    262       Thompson
    Go ahead, take a look at the list, but remember that this is only one way of looking at the players. Different evaluation measures could rank them differently.

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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Rather interesting?

    Foster is higher than Marion and just behind Jason Terry...

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    Go Colts! Shade's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    How are Granger and Noah both #35?

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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Ryan Anderson 45, Amir Johnson 48, Chris Andersen 53, Mouhamed Saer Sene 124.

    On the other hand, Rudy Gay is no. 70, Eric Gordon 82, Jrew Holiday 114, Udonis Haslem 177, Grant Hill 219, Perkins 274.

    Any stats based system is somewhat misleading, but this one looks terrible.


    Quote Originally Posted by Shade View Post
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    How are Granger and Noah both #35?
    There are many shared spots, I assume identical formula results. 37, 48, 57, and so on.
    Last edited by ballism; 07-13-2011 at 08:12 AM.

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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    So basically you get a higher rating just because you are on a winning team...
    You can't get champagne from a garden hose.

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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Solomon Jones is too high.

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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    I don't know how much stock I place in these ratings, but pretty much anyway you slice it they're pretty damning for Rush.

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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by ballism View Post
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    Ryan Anderson 45, Amir Johnson 48, Chris Andersen 53, Mouhamed Saer Sene 124.

    On the other hand, Rudy Gay is no. 70, Eric Gordon 82, Jrew Holiday 114, Udonis Haslem 177, Grant Hill 219, Perkins 274.

    Any stats based system is somewhat misleading, but this one looks terrible.




    There are many shared spots, I assume identical formula results. 37, 48, 57, and so on.
    Cherry-picking is worthless. Everything has outliers. Obviously quantitative analysis has to go through refinements.

    I like what this guy did here, good stuff.

  13. #9
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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Nicely done.

    Rush over 500, behind even Lance, is especially damning.
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  14. #10

    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Any stat based system that has Sene in the top 21 percentile of the league is also using something other than stats.

    It's an interesting list, nonetheless.

    Troy Murphy's ranked one slot ahead of McRoberts.

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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Shouldn't Lance be 34th, at least? Also, obviously Posey is a beast. And Foster's rating shows that his play was not irrelevant because it came in more winning efforts...

    Below number 50 or so, it appears at times that the rankings may have had an additional component added to the analysis. After running the numbers through to start with, if those results didn't look quite right for certain players, it appears that those players were reassigned a final ranking based on the results of a random number generator. That explains both the ties and the inexplicable rankings of players at many levels of the list.

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    Over the pond ballism's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by tfarks View Post
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    Cherry-picking is worthless. Everything has outliers. Obviously quantitative analysis has to go through refinements.

    I like what this guy did here, good stuff.
    Sure it is. Every statistical research needs a reality check afterwards. You are overthinking a couple of smart words and missing the point.

    After seeing a ton of cherries, should I take it seriously when I see that Josh McBob should be a much better player than Taj Gibson next year?
    Or that Taylor Griffin would be way more useful than Bargnani?
    Or that we'd be better off with Travis Diener instead of Darren Collison?
    Of course not. In that, this tool is a "for fun" exercise.

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  18. #13
    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    I think the results could be made less noisy with a simple "minutes played" filter. That should take care of guys like Sene, i.e. small sample size.

    There are still plenty of debatable results though. So as I said originally, don't take it too seriously. For example, Nene at #14 seems too high for me.

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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    in that case, we absolutely CANNOT let foster go to LA. he's a vital centerpiece to this team.

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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by granger33 View Post
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    Solomon Jones is too high.
    I lol'd.

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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by granger33 View Post
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    Solomon Jones is too high.
    I think Beasley is too high.

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  23. #17
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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Nene #14?? Really?
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Lies>>Damn Lies>>Statistics
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  26. #19
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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by ballism View Post
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    Sure it is. Every statistical research needs a reality check afterwards. You are overthinking a couple of smart words and missing the point.

    After seeing a ton of cherries, should I take it seriously when I see that Josh McBob should be a much better player than Taj Gibson next year?
    Or that Taylor Griffin would be way more useful than Bargnani?
    Or that we'd be better off with Travis Diener instead of Darren Collison?
    Of course not. In that, this tool is a "for fun" exercise.
    Actually, I see no reason why McBob couldn't be better than Taj. Taj really isn't all that great (I'd definitely take Hans over him). You remember what Taj did in the playoffs? No? Neither does anyone else.
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    Most advanced stats love Nene because they place a premium on FG%. However, only one of the four stats used in this analysis does.

    One thing I think is funny in the Nene discussion is that (and I'm not pointing fingers at any individuals here) the people who think that he's too highly regarded by advanced statistical measures often turn to traditional stats (ppg & rpg) to prove their case.

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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogco View Post
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    Actually, I see no reason why McBob couldn't be better than Taj. Taj really isn't all that great (I'd definitely take Hans over him). You remember what Taj did in the playoffs? No? Neither does anyone else.
    The question is not what could happen, but what should happen. This is a prediction tool we are talking about. "No reason why not" is not a good enough answer.

    And btw, I don't really agree with your view of Gibson. Gibson plays great D, takes the right shots, doesn't stink at anything and just plays overall solid basketball. He's way better than McRoberts ever was. Including playoffs. His D in Atlanta series was amazing. I don't understand the stuff about memorable playoff performances; are you comparing to Josh McBob's memorable playoff performance this year?...

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  30. #22
    George Hill Apologist mattie's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    yeah, Taj is awesome, and should be starting over Boozer.

  31. #23
    Over the pond ballism's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    He probably should if Boozer stays the mentally broken Boozer of the playoffs.
    But I understand why Bulls are unwilling to do it. They need the good Boozer. If Boozer is merely a backup and there's no amnesty clause, Bulls are pretty screwed.
    Rose, Deng and Korver aren't likely to ever give enough offense to beat the Heat.
    Give Rose great wings like in Oklahoma, then you can go with two super defenders in the post.

  32. #24
    George Hill Apologist mattie's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by ballism View Post
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    He probably should if Boozer stays the mentally broken Boozer of the playoffs.
    But I understand why Bulls are unwilling to do it. They need the good Boozer. If Boozer is merely a backup and there's no amnesty clause, Bulls are pretty screwed.
    Rose, Deng and Korver aren't likely to ever give enough offense to contend.
    Give Rose great wings like in Oklahoma, then you can go with two super defenders in the post.
    I think they are failing miserably at shooting guard, if start Taj, and then search for that number two scorer at 2guard they'd be good. I guess I'm suggesting Boozer is a lost cause. I don't think he'll ever be a solid enough scorer for them.

    I never really thought he was that good of a scorer, he's just had the benefit of playing with a great passer in Deron Williams. I think Deron made him look a lot better than he was. He was never the guy you could just dump it into the post and wait for him to go to work.
    Last edited by mattie; 07-13-2011 at 05:54 PM.

  33. #25
    George Hill Apologist mattie's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Top 593 Players of 2012

    I wish the Pacers could get Taj.

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