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Thread: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

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    Post Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette
    Written by thunderbird1245

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    Tonight we head to Utah, to put the sharp shooting point guard from Brigham Young, Jimmer Fredette, under the scouting microscope. Already in this series we’ve taken an in depth look at 7 prospects: Nikola Vucevic, *Alec Burks, Chris Singleton,* Tristan Thompson, Klay Thompson, Marcus Morris, and Jordan Hamilton. Fredette makes the 8th in the series, and has long been thought of to be a target for Larry Bird at pick #15. With this examination, I am trying to go study him hard and try and clarify how good he will be at the pro level. You can read my breakdown, and then decide for yourselves.

    —————————————————————————————————————————————————— ——-

    Measuring in at 6’2 1/2, and around 195lbs, Fredette measures in about average in terms of height and weight. He has a wingspan of 6’4 1/2, which isn’t freakish at all but is a respectable number for an NBA point guard.

    His athleticism is a major question mark, just from a pure God given talent aspect. In terms of the natural gifts of sheer quickness, height, and leaping ability, he probably is just average at best for an NBA point guard. But he has several hidden talents athletically that help him…..he is very quick and tight with the dribble, his technique and footwork are above average, his anticipation and awareness are very good as well. He has quick hand/eye coordination, doesn’t waste alot of steps offensively, and plays the game very smartly when his team has the basketball. His effort and energy are above average, and he has a charisma and flair that is hard not to appreciate.

    Fredette is coachable it appears, and has been taught the fundamentals well. He has had definite high quality training during the draft process, and that has given him the ability to impress in these workout type settings more than most originally thought he would. He oozes confidence, and has the sort of personality that makes people like him, both with his teammates and especially with his fan base, which is considerable. Fredette probably is one of the most popular players for young kids in whatever community may select him.

    His quickness defensively in college is his biggest knock, and he clearly didn’t defend well at all at BYU. Mostly, he gave poor effort, not naturally bending his knees and getting in the most basics of a defensive stance. He definitely saved his legs for the offensive end at BYU, but won’t have that kind of luxury in the NBA.* Still, I think he possesses the prerequisite athleticism and speed to play the position, so in my judgement he will be a better (not great by any stretch) defender at the pro level playing fewer minutes with less responsibility.

    —————————————————————————————————————————————————— ————————

    Since I mentioned some of this above, let’s talk defense first with Jimmer Fredette.

    Fredette was poor in college no question. He gave poor effort guarding the dribbler, stood straight up away from the ball, didn’t fight hard thru screens, didn’t contest jump shots well…..basically the entire litany of defensive coaching checkpoints Fredette would have to be rated “below average”.* He was a guy the BYU coaching staff had to hide defensively to keep him fresh, and a guy the opponent tried to attack if possible.

    Fredette has poor balance on this end, which makes him slow. He reaches with the wrong hand often, and gets his weight out on his toes making him unable to move with a quick twitch. His total inability or willingness to bend his knees and get in a stance when in an off ball position makes him slow to drop his hips and close out on people. By standing straight up too much he struggles to get around screens, and he lacks the athletic talent to be able to offset that bad habit. When guarding the ball he is better than advertised, but as soon as his man gets rid of it out of his stance goes Jimmer, making him very vulnerable to face cuts, follow/screen situations, or for quick flare screens directed at him.

    The question you have to ask yourself as a front office guy, scout, or coach is: can this be fixed, and are we the people who can do it? Because if Fredette can’t play better defense than he has in college, then he can’t play. So by taking him, you have to be confident that you have the motivational skills, teaching ability, right system, and right personnel and style of play that will help him hide his defensive flaws.

    I think Fredette can be coached up to an average NBA level defender, in my judgment. Being in better condition, playing fewer minutes, and becoming more focused on that end is what he needs to be able to do to get better. The ideal team will somewhere on the floor at one of the other 4 positions have some way above average defender to pair with him, to help balance out his flaws and making all the parts fit together in an optimum way. If you can use him correctly, I think Fredette’s defense could be decent enough to make him a legitimate NBA starting point guard in time, but right now he isn’t there yet.

    —————————————————————————————————————————————————— ————————-

    While his defense will likely get better as an NBA player, it is also likely that his offensive game will get a little worse as he plays much higher competition.

    He was a dynamic offensive weapon at BYU, scoring in a variety of ways. He has every combination of dribble moves you’d want….he can cross you over, he can step back dribble, he can use the in/out bounce, he can go between his legs, he can go behind the back, and he can do any of these moves in any combination. The question a fine offensive player in the league has to answer is: “Can he get anywhere he wants to go with the dribble?”. In Fredette’s case, he can. The question is, can he score or dish once he gets there?

    I think he will struggle scoring against help once he gets into the paint. Though he has the skills to shoot the floater and the teardrop shot, he isn’t going to be able to pull up and shoot over long armed athletic guys in the NBA at a high enough level to merit doing so. Instead he is going to need to be able to draw those people to him and then make the proper pass. At BYU, Jimmer often made the extraordinary pass…..but then he’d turn it over the next time trying to make another highlight play instead of just making the simple play. His judgment wasn’t always the greatest as a passer, but then again he didn’t have alot of talent playing with him either.

    His calling card will be his range, ability to space the floor, and the ability to create a shot for himself and others up against the shot clock. But how good are those skills really?

    Maybe Jimmer can shake and bake his way to shirk his man and get off a 28 foot jump shot whenever he wants….but I am not sure that is all that important a skill. In fact I think it is just as likely that when he fires one of those up that you’ll be shaking your head instead of clapping for him as a fan of the team he ends up on. So I see his ability to free himself off the dribble for a wild jump shot alot like I view being able to juggle, or say the alphabet backwards………a neat skill to be sure but one that doesn’t necessarily help me win.

    But he will be deadly in a catch and shoot situation for sure as a spot up guy. And no one in the league will double off him to help dig the post, or to defend a driver. A creative coach can run offensive sets for his team to use Fredette in a way that really puts the defense in a tough spot. Any ball screen for him has to be carefully defended, and you can arrange the chess pieces on the floor to get him catch and shoot opportunities. He can be a great post feeder, as any 2 man game with him on the same side as your post guy is going to require alot of defensive planning.

    Speaking of the ball screen, he does have very nice quick feet technically speaking coming around the corner. He gets low with his dribble, and is able to turn the corner and rise quickly into his shot. He does at times shoot the ball slightly after the apex of his jump, but that seems to be especially when he is tightly guarded and/or tired.* Like I have talked about before, he does a nice job of making that last dribble a hard bounce,letting him rise and flow with good rhythm. And because he gets low with the dribble and has a tight handle, he can split the trap on ballscreens as well, something some point guards hize cannot do well. And his crossover is good enough that he is always a threat to “turn down” the ballscreen, and instead refuse it and take it himself for a bounce or 2. At the NBA level, I think the way to guard him best in ballscreen situations will be to force him away from it and try and make him a driver, hoping his lack of elite athleticism gives him trouble trying to finish in traffic.

    Many many people think he would be best served playing in a really up tempo system, but I totally disagree with that. I think* a team that plays half court oriented defense would help protect him best, and then a team would need to be creative offensively to take advantage of his outstanding shooting skills.

    —————————————————————————————————————————————————— ————————

    So what do we have in Jimmer Fredette?

    I think Fredette is a below average defender currently, who is likely to improve in that area but never be better than average in that regard. Offensively I think his range is a major weapon, but not so much his ability to create his own shot off the dribble….in my view he will be much better in a slower set play type of situation that maximizes his ability to space the floor. Hopefully a team might have an extra ballhandler, which will let you play him off the ball some. And if a team has a wing capable of being able to “cross matchup” with him……. (in other words, a wing who can guard a point guard so he can guard a weak wing if the matchup lets you do that)……. that is even better.

    I think eventually in the right situation and personnel groupings that Fredette can be an NBA starting point guard someday. But, chances are IF he is your starting point guard, you might not be that good of a team and your front office will always be looking for someone better to replace him.

    In the perfect world, I think Fredette should be a back up point guard with a really creative coach and good defenders around him, playing 16-20 minutes a contest to begin with as an offensive boost type spark.

    —————————————————————————————————————————————————— ————————–

    What does Indiana do at #15 if Fredette is still on the board? I think they probably would take him. But should they?

    As most of you know, I highly value defensive point guards…I think in my view of basketball that defense begins at the point of attack, so in my way of looking at the world Jimmer Fredette isn’t a “Tbird” kind of point guard.

    Having said that, I do think overall he will help us more than AJ Price probably. Plus, if Stephenson ever panned out, Fredette would be an interesting player to play with him. And, the tremendous defender that I think Paul George can/will be does let you have some leeway, as I mentioned above. For instance, if we were playing Chicago again, you could put Fredette on one of their wings (Watson, Korver, Bogans etc) and let Paul George guard Rose. Most teams don’t have that kind of flexibility, but we do. So, I can see an argument to be made for taking Fredette, and if all the guys I like better are gone at that point I won’t be complaining as I watch the draft next Thursday. I just won’t be jumping for joy.

    —————————————————————————————————————————————————— ————————-

    Current NBA comparable: in prime Mike Bibby.

    Bibby was a poor defensive starter, but a high quality offensive player for some really good teams in Sacramento. I wasn’t a fan because I didn’t think he guarded well, but Bibby has had a nice career no question.

    Former NBA comparable: this is too easy: a smaller Danny Ainge

    As always, the above is just my opinion.

    Tbird


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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    wow he stole my comparison Mike Bibby in his prime


    so question for TBird is Reggie Jackson your kind of pg? ( i would think so but don't want to put words in your mouth)
    Last edited by pacer4ever; 06-16-2011 at 08:46 PM.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    I have no desire to see Fredette in a Pacers uni. I can only continue to hope he's drafted prior to the Pacers.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    And watch Jimmer get burned by Korver, Bogans, and Brewer because they can shoot right over him?

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacersalltheway10 View Post
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    And watch Jimmer get burned by Korver, Bogans, and Brewer because they can shoot right over him?
    Any shot Brewer or Bogans takes is one less shot taken by Derrick Rose.....that would be the theory anyway.

    Didn't say it was a perfect plan, but if you have Jimmer playing for you that is what you would have to match up like.....Rose would make him look silly.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    But it's back where we started with Collison, if it wasn't for Korver and their shooters we could have possible won that series.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Unless #15+BRush moves up high enough to get him....Jimmer will not be on the board when we draft.
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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    I have a few guys in mind, and Fredette is one of them. He'd be a massive fan favorite, and bring revenue into the Pacer franchise via ticket sales and television exposure, so I'll forgive him if his defense isn't up to snuff... which I'm not entirely sold that he's going to be all that bad anyway.
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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Fredette sort of reminds me of a taller Billy Keller. I watched Keller destroy many teams in the fourth quarter of close games.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Quote Originally Posted by CableKC View Post
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    Unless #15+BRush moves up high enough to get him....Jimmer will not be on the board when we draft.
    I hope you are right.

    For those that say he would be a huge fan draw, why? Wasn't the same thing said about Tyler? Tyler had a much better college career than Jimmer and he didn't fill up Conseco.

    I think Jimmer has a place in the league. The guy can simply shoot. He will instantly become one of the best shooters in the league and there is a need for that. With that said I think that there will be better options for the Pacers at 15.

    I agree with Tbird that your point guard needs to be good on defense. The number of point guards who can score has increased over the past 5-10 years. You have to be able to defend them and I just don't believe Jimmer can do that.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Quote Originally Posted by Young View Post
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    I hope you are right.

    For those that say he would be a huge fan draw, why? Wasn't the same thing said about Tyler? Tyler had a much better college career than Jimmer and he didn't fill up Conseco.
    Why? Hansbrough has *already* become a fan favorite. He's not "filling up Conseco", but our ticket sales did go up. Our merchandise sales went up. We made the playoffs with Hansbrough providing the kick in our pants down the stretch.
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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacersalltheway10 View Post
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    And watch Jimmer get burned by Korver, Bogans, and Brewer because they can shoot right over him?
    I don't think it's that simple. Usually shooters don't like to be crowded, so unless Jimmer is running out at them, I don't think this is a huge concern.

    Plus, what tbird said. One less shot D Rose is taking.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    It's a moot point because he apparetly has a promise from Utah. If he's there though, it should be a no-brainer (although maybe Marshon Brooks).

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    If the draft sites are accurate, the Pacers are torn between Burks and Brooks.
    Brooks is instant offense with hopes of becoming a lockdown defender. Even without defense, Brooks could be another Jamal Crawford. With defense, Brooks very well could be Josh Howard in his prime.

    Burks is a playmaking SG with an inconsistent jumper. At worst, Burks could be Marquise Daniels. If Burks develops a consistent jumper, he could be just as good as Evan Turner.

    That's why I think the Pacers would target Jimmer as the safe pick. When compared to Brooks and Burks, Jimmer is the least risk because of his range.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
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    Why? Hansbrough has *already* become a fan favorite. He's not "filling up Conseco", but our ticket sales did go up. Our merchandise sales went up. We made the playoffs with Hansbrough providing the kick in our pants down the stretch.
    But did most of the tickets/merchandise sold go up because of Tyler?

    I'm sure that some people would come out just to see Jimmer. I just don't think it would be enough to be a valid reason to draft Jimmer. I can see that if it was someone who grew up in Indiana or played at one of the universities. I just don't see it happening with Jimmer. I think most people know that he won't be a star in the NBA and most people won't buy tickets just because of a bench player.

    Again i'm sales would jump some just because of Jimmer. I just don't believe it would be a significant jump.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    See, I think he's more than a bench player though, and he's probably the most well-known player in this entire draft class. That and he's a lethal shooter and can actually create with the ball in his hands too (doesn't hurt). The Pacers shouldn't draft him because of his marketability, that's more of an added bonus.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Quote Originally Posted by Young View Post
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    But did most of the tickets/merchandise sold go up because of Tyler?
    Who's to say? You asked if he filled seats. Our ticket sales went up. All kinds of factors to consider, but if you want me to prove that Tyler Hansbrough filled seats, then I'll ask you to prove that he *didn't*. We can't.

    The only considerations were that Tyler would possibly fill seats, that he develops a rabid fanbase wherever he plays, and our seats have started to fill up. Take from that what you will.

    I don't think Tyler by himself is the reason we sold more, but I do believe he certainly had a hand in it, and that he has become a fan favorite, and will continue to do so as his role becomes more prominent.

    Fredette has the same effect.

    I like players who attract a fan base, no matter how over-analyzed they may be. They fill seats, the Pacers make more money, and we don't have to worry about the things we've had to worry about the past 5 years with $$$ and attendance, which makes that big W-thing happen more often.
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 06-16-2011 at 11:52 PM.
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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    I feel the same way about drafting Jimmer that I did about drafting Tyler: I don't necessarily want him, but I wouldn't be upset if we got him. I like him. I think he'll have a decent NBA career.
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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Most people probably never even heard of Jimmer. The casual fans who we rely on for ticket sales most likely don't know much about Jimmer. They've heard his name but that's about it. Tyler was a multiple year star for UNC. Jimmer for BYU a mid major.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Quote Originally Posted by eldubious View Post
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    If the draft sites are accurate, the Pacers are torn between Burks and Brooks.
    Brooks is instant offense with hopes of becoming a lockdown defender. Even without defense, Brooks could be another Jamal Crawford. With defense, Brooks very well could be Josh Howard in his prime.

    Burks is a playmaking SG with an inconsistent jumper. At worst, Burks could be Marquise Daniels. If Burks develops a consistent jumper, he could be just as good as Evan Turner.

    That's why I think the Pacers would target Jimmer as the safe pick. When compared to Brooks and Burks, Jimmer is the least risk because of his range.
    According to Chad Ford on the most recent Brad Van Pelt podcast, I think it was, Marshon "lit up" Burks at a recent workout in Charlotte.

    As for Jimmer, great write up. I'm watching a replay of BYU double OT game early last season against South Florida, (Jimmer had a great game stat wise 32 pts, 5 steals, 4 assists, 3 boards 10-25 from the field). Jimmer is bothered with the ball under standing pressure and he can't finish, quite often. I still question his conditioning. The main disclaimer, as T Bird points out, BYU had almost no one besides Jimmer. Really bad big men. He is a good ball handler with a head of steam, but he'll be bothered by NBA level defenders when he tries to run an offense. After watching the Central Florida game, I was not really impressed, he got foul calls when he drove, but at the next level I don't think he'll get them, nor will he finish. He has good vision, which should translate. He's a good on the ball defender when he had a chance to to it, but BYU played a bunch of zone and Jimmers load on offense could let him be an intense defender.

    I have no doubt he looks good in 3 on 3 workouts and drills, he has a tight handles, deceptive change of direction, and in 3 on 3 he has room to operate. Here's the issue, in 5 on 5 at the NBA level, he won't have this room. Its a completely different game 5 on 5. His skillset is perfect for 3 on 3, so I bet he does look all world. I'm not sure how effective he'll be with all of the speed and length at the next level.

    I think I got caught up in the 28 foot bombs watching him over the season, but when you look at him with an NBA eye, its a different perspective.

    On the flip side, he's a great guy, just spectacular interview. A kid you hope your daughter brings home to meet you kind of guy.

    I'd see him basically like T Bird except, I don't see him as a starter type ever. A solid back up that has to be in the right positions. I hope he goes before the Pacers, if not, its not a horrible pick in this draft at 15, but I'm not sure he beats out AJ, if AJ is 100%.
    Last edited by Speed; 06-17-2011 at 07:51 AM.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Quote Originally Posted by PR07 View Post
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    It's a moot point because he apparetly has a promise from Utah. If he's there though, it should be a no-brainer (although maybe Marshon Brooks).
    http://twitter.com/#!/chadfordinsider

    Jimmer Fredette wasn't initially invited to Green Room either it appears. But again, NBA still has a couple spots available.
    Perhaps it was a scenario type of promise and not a promise, promise?

    It will pretty much come down to what the Jazz do at #3 and the Kings at #7 I feel

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Quote Originally Posted by pwee31 View Post
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    http://twitter.com/#!/chadfordinsider



    Perhaps it was a scenario type of promise and not a promise, promise?

    It will pretty much come down to what the Jazz do at #3 and the Kings at #7 I feel
    Right, if Utah takes Knight at 3, they wouldn't take Jimmer at 12, but they could trade back to someone who wants him. That wouldn't surprise, someone falls in love and moves up with him as the target.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    McBob is from Carmel, In. For you non-Indiana residents, this is the rich suburb on Indy's north side. He was an Indiana HS Allstar, and is a fan favorite. I don't see him being a Pacer selling a hugh amount of tickets, so I don't see Jimmer being a big attendance draw attraction. I am more concerned about a players ability to help the team than putting a few extra derrieres in the seats. I have stated it b4 I don't want Bird picking Ferderette.... PERIOD!

    For the last 6 plus years, the Pacers have had a poor "D" backcourt. Most of the time they couldn't stop a senior citizen BB team defensively. Whoever Bird drafts has to able to play good "D" now, and not hope and pray that the player "will learn in years" to come. Brooks, Burks, and Darius Morris should be able to defend AND score. Chris Singleton, SF/PF, can play "D". I'm tired of Bird mostly drafting players who can score, but can't play "D". Why not draft a player who can play both sides of the court and not just the offensive side like Paul George? AND yes, I'll go Rumplestiltskin if Bird drafts Jimmer Fredette, he's not what this team needs. How does he fit in with smashmouth concept of Vogel when he's soft player who will have a difficult getting off his shot? I'm not interested in a specialized 3 pt shooter as such as I watched one for over 3 years who couldn't play "D" either.
    Last edited by Justin Tyme; 06-17-2011 at 08:54 AM.

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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacersalltheway10 View Post
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    But it's back where we started with Collison, if it wasn't for Korver and their shooters we could have possible won that series.
    Funny thing about that was he was just as open against the Heat and couldn't hit the ocean with a boat.

    Oh and back on topic, love your reviews! Best on the net (for a Pacers fan). I would be really interested in a Tbird "who you want to draft, and why", or maybe your ideal draft for the Pacers with trades.
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    Default Re: Tbird 2011 NBA draft analysis #8: Jimmer Fredette

    Jimmer is a great shooter but is clueless on defence.
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