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Thread: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

  1. #76

    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    It's proof that a lottery is completely random, which I think makes complete sense. Sometimes big market teams win and sometimes they lose. Sometimes an already wealthy person will win the lottery, sometimes a dirt poor one will.
    How is that proof? If a certain team landed the #1 every year, then there would be no conspiracy. We would all know the draft is rigged. The argument that is being presented is the convenience of certain lottery winnings. (Chicago and Rose, New York, Ewing)

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    I said from the beginning I would have went to either Chicago or the Clippers. But definitely Chicago when you take into the account that they had enough cap space to sign him and DWade.

    DRose, DWade, AND LeBron? Uh, yes please.
    Drose
    Wade
    LBJ
    Gibson
    Noah

    Loul Deng 6th man

    with a very good rest of the bench that would be damm near unbeatable

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Ok, but given the choice between Cleveland and Miami and the situations last summer, who is really staying in Cleveland?
    Again, that doesn't have anything to do with whether or not the NBA lottery is rigged.

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Having the lottery take place behind close doors, with no one (not even NBA owners) allowed access to the ping-pong ball drawing, isn't invisible?
    By "invisible" I mean that the skewed results should only happen within statistical norms. It is only when a bad pattern emerges that it is suspect. This isn't the fallacy of "the next coin flip has to be tails because it has been heads 1000 times", this is the statistical concept that the larger the sample size the more we EXPECT the total of all the results to conform to the probabilities.

    Out of 1000 coin flips we expect something at least approaching 500 heads and 500 tails. If a coin comes up heads 1000 times either the coin is rigged or you're in a Tom Stoppard play.

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    And the results aren't CONSTANTLY skewed, which is why Adam and others have made the argument that because it doesn't happen every year, it "proves" it isn't rigged.
    Well, so far no one has shown that, they've only shown that some years the outcome doesn't fit fan theories of large market or big human interest story. One could simply say "Stern moves in mysterious ways".

    I could be wrong and the last place team has won the lottery exactly the number of times we would have expected it to over the years. But, since my (admittedly limited) observational experience contradicts that, I'd want to see some numbers.
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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    It doesn't "prove" anything one way or the other.

    EDIT: You can argue it's evidence sure, but no one is saying that the draft is rigged EVERY year.


    The burden of proof is on the side screaming "conspiracy". When I look at the last 25+ years, all I see is a bunch of random occurrences where sometimes big market teams win and sometimes they lose.

    You (not you directly, just people in general) can't just point to Ewing and Rose when the Celtics have always been screwed in the lottery and the Knicks couldn't even get a top 5 pick in the 00's. Or how in the Lebron/Melo/Wade/Bosh draft the Bulls or Knicks couldn't even get a top 5 pick to get one of those studs.

    I'm willing to listen if some good, interesting evidence is shown. But Rose to Chicago just isn't going to cut it as far as I'm concerned. The only interesting "fix" theory is the Ewing one, IMO.

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by rock747 View Post
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    How is that proof? If a certain team landed the #1 every year, then there would be no conspiracy. We would all know the draft is rigged. The argument that is being presented is the convenience of certain lottery winnings. (Chicago and Rose, New York, Ewing)
    Yep. Cheaters don't cheat every time, too easy to get caught.

    For the record, I don't know if it is rigged, but it wouldn't surprise me. Watching the video of the 1985 draft, I think you can clearly see a difference in the way one envelope is put into the tumbler, as it banged off the side, and you can clearly see a bent corner when the NY Knicks envelope was pulled out.

    Was in an accident? Sure, but it's quite the accident.

  8. #82

    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Ok, but given the choice between Cleveland and Miami and the situations last summer, who is really staying in Cleveland?
    I guess you could make this anology. If you had the chance to play for the Pacers (your hometown team and i am assuming you're a fan) would you let the city and fans down? That's the part that stings with people I believe. They actually had one of their own.

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    The burden of proof is on the side screaming "conspiracy". When I look at the last 25+ years, all I see is a bunch of random occurrences where sometimes big market teams win and sometimes they lose.

    You (not you directly, just people in general) can't just point to Ewing and Rose when the Celtics have always been screwed in the lottery and the Knicks couldn't even get a top 5 pick in the 00's. Or how in the Lebron/Melo/Wade/Bosh draft the Bulls or Knicks couldn't even get a top 5 pick to get one of those studs.

    I'm willing to listen if some good, interesting evidence is shown. But Rose to Chicago just isn't going to cut it as far as I'm concerned. The only interesting "fix" theory is the Ewing one, IMO.
    Until the process is made public, there isn't any evidence that can be given.

    The picks obviously have some probability merit to them, or it would be an easy conspiracy to prove. The fact that the whole thing is done behind closed doors allows the question to be raised.

    I know it's not going to stop all the questions, but when you hide the process it makes even more eyebrows raise.

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    One question for someone with appropriate resources - since the full 4-digit ping-pong-ball lottery system came into play, how many times has the team with the worst record actually gotten the #1 pick?

    If someone can go back further, since the NBA started making it possible to award the #1 pick to someone other than the worst team (the year of the infamous envelope) how many times has the worst team gotten the first pick?

    And, finally, for someone like count55 who is good at numbers, can the expected number of times the #1 should have gone to the team with the worst record be compared to the actuals? This is complex because multiple systems have been used with different numbers of teams in the selection pool and different chances depending on the system.
    I'm still reading through this thread, but I did this about a year or two ago. I compared what "should have" happened versus what did happen in several lotteries.

    I'll try to find it.

    Thanks to google, I found it:

    http://www.pacersdigest.com/showthread.php?t=49727

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Again, that doesn't have anything to do with whether or not the NBA lottery is rigged.
    Duh? Did you even consider the context of the comment? It does have to do with whether or not anyone actually still sympathizes with the city of Cleveland though.

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Having the lottery take place behind close doors, with no one (not even NBA owners) allowed access to the ping-pong ball drawing, isn't invisible?

    Uh, okay.

    EDIT: And the results aren't CONSTANTLY skewed, which is why Adam and others have made the argument that because it doesn't happen every year, it "proves" it isn't rigged.
    I thought some people were allowed access? I thought I remembered that each lottery team has a representative to witness the drawing? Doesn't Bill Benner serve that role for the Pacers when we're in it?

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by rock747 View Post
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    I guess you could make this anology. If you had the chance to play for the Pacers (your hometown team and i am assuming you're a fan) would you let the city and fans down? That's the part that stings with people I believe. They actually had one of their own.
    If management was letting me down like the Cavs constantly came up short for Lebron, yeah I would.

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by CableKC View Post
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    Geez it's not like the league asked Dan Gilbert to bring his 14 year old son to sit in for the draft. Maybe Kahn should be smart and bring some kid to sit in for him as GM.

    Kahn should get some cheese with his whine. Talk about sour grapes.
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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    I'm still reading through this thread, but I did this about a year or two ago. I compared what "should have" happened versus what did happen in several lotteries.

    I'll try to find it.

    Thanks to google, I found it:

    http://www.pacersdigest.com/showthread.php?t=49727
    Thanks, though that isn't quite the way I was wanting the view.

    The question is whether, in those years, 12.5% is the expected (mathematically probable) number of times the last place team should have gotten the #1 pick or - if not - how far off is it (within some reasonable deviation from probability or not)? It would take some work because that expected value will change based on the number of teams in the lottery.
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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by rock747 View Post
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    How is that proof? If a certain team landed the #1 every year, then there would be no conspiracy. We would all know the draft is rigged. The argument that is being presented is the convenience of certain lottery winnings. (Chicago and Rose, New York, Ewing)

    I can see where people say the Ewing one is rigged because there are some things that look screwy in the video.

    But the ONLY REASON that people complain about the DRose one being rigged is because he went to Chicago, which IMO, is pretty laughable. You're telling me that they didn't fix it where at least one of Lebron/Wade/Melo would end up Chicago or New York, or they didn't ever give the Celtics a break, but out of nowhere they decided to fix it for Chicago in 2008?

    Sooner or later a large market is going to win and that's what happened in 08. Look at all the small markets that have won lotteries over the years. You can't just scream conspiracy when a major market wins one every once in a while, especially when really the only "evidence" you have is that Rose is from Chicago and the league "wants" him to be a Bull.

  18. #91
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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    Its a LOTTERY. By definition, someone is going to get lucky and someone is going to strike out. SOMEONE has to win it and sometimes it's going to be a big market team and sometimes it's going to be a small market team. The luck is just as random as a real lottery.

    If it were really rigged, would Boston have struck out in 1997 for the Tim Duncan sweepstakes? Or would they got the fifth pick in the 2007 draft when they had the second best odds to win it? The Celtics were depressing throughout the entire 1990's, so if there were rigging to be done you would think the league would have rigged it for them to get Duncan. Or they would have thrown them a bone in the Odon/Durant draft as they had had 15 years of futility by then.

    Christ, the Knicks were in the lottery for virtually the entire 00's and never did better than the 6th pick! One would logically think that the league would have thrown them a bone somewhere along the line if there were any rigging to be done.

    Small market teams have fared off well. The Cavs have had 2 number 1 picks in 9 years. The Magic have had three number 1 picks in their short existence.

    Just as big market teams like the Knicks and Celtics strike out, a large market team like Chicago can strike gold and win it. But it's just luck and chance. Sometimes the big market teams win, sometimes they lose. It's ridiculous to say that it's rigged when Chicago gets Rose while ignoring all the bad luck the Celtics and Knicks have had in the lottery in recent years.
    As far as the part that is highlighted goes even though the Knicks were in the lottery didn't a few of those end up going to chicago cause Zeke is an idiot? The knicks could have had Lamarcus Aldridge and Joakim Noah.

    The Celtics on the other hand yeah things really turned out bad for them they only managed to get Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to come play along side Paul Pierce. I'm sure they look back on that draft and think to themselves now. "if only we had got Tim Duncan things sure would be brighter for us now". Also in the 1997 draft the Celtics only managed to draft 3rd overall some loser named Chauncey Billups that guy was terrible!

    Hell even the Knicks who tried their damndest to fail as a franchise and helped restore the bulls to their glory and STILL managed to get Carmello Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups.
    Last edited by TheDon; 05-18-2011 at 05:32 PM.

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  20. #92

    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Logic against the conspiracy is just more evidence of the conspiracy. Brilliant logically fallacy.

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Indiana raised Greg Oden goes to who? Portland.
    But Stern doesn't like the Pacers!
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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    I feel so sorry for Kevin Love and the Timberwolves fans. This is who's running their team.

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Has anyone but me actually WATCHED the interview with Kahn?

    He was smiling through it, he was completely joking. It's pretty obvious.

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  26. #96

    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by xBulletproof View Post
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    Has anyone but me actually WATCHED the interview with Kahn?

    He was smiling through it, he was completely joking. It's pretty obvious.
    It sort of was said in a jest tone, but that doesn't mean he doesn't believe it. Even a lot of the sports writers haven't come out and said, "no the draft definetly isn't rigged." Instead they say, "Kahn shouldn't have said that because now he's oing to get fined." PTI's crew even kind of seemed to believe in the plausibility that it is rigged. Kornheiser said he would be fine with it if it was.

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by xBulletproof View Post
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    Has anyone but me actually WATCHED the interview with Kahn?

    He was smiling through it, he was completely joking. It's pretty obvious.
    I watched it and didn't think any but him jesturing that basically it was Fate that the 14 yr old boy won... actually being kind to the kid...kinda given the kid props ... a job well done sorta thing. I thought it was a good thing, a good interview.

    Then I started reading this stuff on here and realized how some peoples minds are really warped. Get a grip people.

  28. #98
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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    If a lottery system like the NBA's was rigged they'd do it like Nascar is rigged and just do things to give someone a better chance of winning than they otherwise would have. So, probability and luck would still be a factor. Even if Earnhardt Jr gets a bigger restrictor plate that doesn't mean he doesn't cut a tire and end up losing even if he has the fastest car.

    So, even if you weight the ping pong balls to help get a certain result there's no guarantee an unlucky bounce won't doom that odd ping pong ball from popping up ahead of the others that were weighted differently to decrease their odds of popping up early or late... or in whatever order was desired.

    IOW... cheating/rigging wouldn't have to be blatantly obvious even to casual observers.
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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    http://www.nba.com/2011/news/05/18/k...s=iref:nbahpt2

    Wolves' Kahn says he was joking about draft lottery

    MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- Timberwolves president David Kahn says his comments about the NBA draft lottery were intended as a joke, simply a tongue-in-cheek resignation that fate gave Cleveland the first pick ahead of luck-lacking Minnesota.

    After the Cavaliers beat out the Wolves for the top spot Tuesday, Kahn said with a smirk to a group of reporters, "This league has a habit - and I am just going to say habit - of producing some pretty incredible story lines."

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Billups was never any good until he left Boston, which is their fault.

    Cleveland is going to be right in the same spot as this year, next year.
    "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

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