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Thread: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    I can see where people say the Ewing one is rigged because there are some things that look screwy in the video.

    But the ONLY REASON that people complain about the DRose one being rigged is because he went to Chicago, which IMO, is pretty laughable. You're telling me that they didn't fix it where at least one of Lebron/Wade/Melo would end up Chicago or New York, or they didn't ever give the Celtics a break, but out of nowhere they decided to fix it for Chicago in 2008?

    Sooner or later a large market is going to win and that's what happened in 08. Look at all the small markets that have won lotteries over the years. You can't just scream conspiracy when a major market wins one every once in a while, especially when really the only "evidence" you have is that Rose is from Chicago and the league "wants" him to be a Bull.
    Which is ridiculous because nobody else in the entire world likes Rose more as a Bull because he's from Chicago. He went to Memphis for cripe's sake.

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Also, I like how the team with the second worst record in the entire NBA winning the lottery (even though it was with the Clips pick which makes it even less likely to be rigged) spawns an accusation of it being rigged. They were 19-63 for crying out loud!

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Also, I like how the team with the second worst record in the entire NBA winning the lottery (even though it was with the Clips pick which makes it even less likely to be rigged) spawns an accusation of it being rigged. They were 19-63 for crying out loud!
    It may not be rigged, but in my mind it is a failure in terms of properly distributing the best draft position.

    Taking Hicks' data at face value (which I'd prefer not to do but no math whiz has stepped up for a better analysis), why is the THIRD worst record most likely to get the FIRST pick? Why is it just as likely to win the lottery being the SIXTH worst team as it is to be the worst?

    Sorry, but something is wrong here. Either it is a legitimate way to try to improve bad teams by giving them a shot at great players, or it is an entertainment opportunity masquerading as a game of chance, where the league doesn't give a crap who gets the pick as long as they generate lots of buzz and excitement over it.

    If the former case, it isn't working and something should be repaired. If the latter case, it isn't too far fetched to believe that there is something behind the scenes going on because it would enhance the actual purpose (to get people "excited" based on a story from this year) without having to meet some people's idea of "conspiracy" (always favoring certain teams year after year).
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  6. #105
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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    What's wrong with my data? Are you assuming I read it wrong or wrote it wrong? I got all of my data from draftexpress.com. I organized (to a point) their data.

    *edit*

    Upon review, my numbers are not accurate. I had falsely assumed the odds remain the same each year (at least starting with 1994), I inadvertently produced the wrong odds in my thread.

    I had assumed that team records and tie breakers first determined the order of the draft, and then once the order was established, I assumed that the number of lottery balls was always the same for each slot. I was wrong. They are NOT the same. Turns out, if teams tie in record, FIRST they SPLIT the AVERAGE of the number of balls between both of their slots, and THEN there's a tie breaker to determine who gets the extra ball (if applicable). Looking again at draft express, the ball count for teams changes every year. Even the #1 slot may not receive the usual 250 balls. If that team ties with another team, they SPLIT the number of balls the 1st and 2nd slot usually receive.

    So if you are the #1 slot in the lottery, you MAY NOT NECESSARILY HAVE 250 balls!

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    I Personally like the lottery the way it is for acouple reasons.

    1. It keeps some of the worst teams from tanking because of the uncertainty of the lottery.

    2. Without the uncertainty, then all teams would know exactly who to trade with to get that #1 #2 #3 pick and that would be truely uncool. Talk about draft manipulation, especially at the trade dealine. It would almost give the best teams a guarantee at the best pick, this would right down be ugly.

    The only thing I would do different is make the ball selection and have all balls weighed and examined seperately before putting them in the machine and do it live with a PNP view. This should take out all doubt to those conspirators.
    Last edited by Pacer Fan; 05-19-2011 at 10:39 AM. Reason: typo

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Upon review, my numbers are not accurate. I had falsely assumed the odds remain the same each year (at least starting with 1994), I inadvertently produced the wrong odds in my thread.

    I had assumed that team records and tie breakers first determined the order of the draft, and then once the order was established, I assumed that the number of lottery balls was always the same for each slot. I was wrong. They are NOT the same. Turns out, if teams tie in record, FIRST they SPLIT the AVERAGE of the number of balls between both of their slots, and THEN there's a tie breaker to determine who gets the extra ball (if applicable). Looking again at draft express, the ball count for teams changes every year. Even the #1 slot may not receive the usual 250 balls. If that team ties with another team, they SPLIT the number of balls the 1st and 2nd slot usually receive.

    So if you are the #1 slot in the lottery, you MAY NOT NECESSARILY HAVE 250 balls

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    What's wrong with my data? Are you assuming I read it wrong or wrote it wrong? I got all of my data from draftexpress.com. I organized (to a point) their data.
    No, no, nothing is wrong with the data in terms of the lottery winners and their records.

    To make a conclusion on whether the 12.5% success rate of the worst team is within the bounds of probability you need to create an expected value for the number of times the worst team should get the top pick over 18 tries. To do that, you need the odds in each year, and they will differ because the number of teams in the lottery changed during that period (adding 2 in 95 and 1 in 2007).

    The data is OK (assuming it lists who WON not who GOT the pick, since the Raptors and the Grizz were barred from the #1 pick in 96-98 even if they won the lottery), but we don't know how it compares with the actual odds. Therefore, using the percentages solely against the rankings is inaccurate - they should be used against the actual odds.

    I'm not sure how much of a difference it would make or even if 18 tries is a decent sample size, but we are talking about a pretty serious charge and accuracy could be very important.
    BillS

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Personally, I don't believe it's rigged. However, I would LOVE to see how many times the #1 team had a corresponding "feel good" story attached to it or the #1 pick was born/raised in the state.

    As a side note, am I the only who noticed that the Cavs got the #1 and #4 picks which was the same age as the boy representing the Cavs? Honestly, that was only reason why I even let my mind entertain the "rigged" theory.

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    I don't think it's rigged, I just think there's other ways of doing it. I think they should have a single elimination tournament with the teams who don't get into the playoffs and if you win you get the number 1 pick, then the rest of the teams fill out according to record.

    You lose the tanking since you would get home court advantage against teams with worse records. You help the worst teams with the 2nd pick and lower and who knows a bad team might win 4 games in a row and get the number one pick. And being the first team out of the playoffs isn't such a terrible thing anymore, you could add a really good player to a team who may be only one player away from contending.

    I may have stolen this from Bill Simmons. I can't remember if he actually said this or not.

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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by Pig Nash View Post
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    You lose the tanking since you would get home court advantage against teams with worse records. You help the worst teams with the 2nd pick and lower and who knows a bad team might win 4 games in a row and get the number one pick. And being the first team out of the playoffs isn't such a terrible thing anymore, you could add a really good player to a team who may be only one player away from contending.
    People have talked about this before, but how does that do anything but give the #1 pick to the best team NOT to be in the playoffs? Unless you believe the #2 pick is always just as good as the #1 pick, it doesn't help the worst team.

    And I don't buy that it prevents tanking - you just tank to finish just outside the playoffs so you can go to the draft tournament and sweep everyone for the #1 pick. So much for any end-of-season interest in the final playoff spot when the contending teams are all trying desperately to lose their way out of it.

    The problem is the draft lottery is considered a "prize". It shouldn't be. The #1 pick should be something you get because you NEED it, not because it helps the bottom line of a team that isn't that bad yet.

    I maintain you take the element of chance completely out of it. You analyze what indicates a bad team over the course of multiple seasons, create a mathematical formula to use that, and place a limit on the number of top 3 picks a franchise can get over a 3 or 5 year period (to prevent long-term bad management from being rewarded).

    The only downside that I can see to that is that it would be easy to figure out who has the #1 pick and that might cause NCAA players to decide to stay in college longer to avoid being drafted by a team they don't like. But that might be correctable with effort on the part of owners - after all, LBJ didn't suffer that much on the notoriety scale from being in Cleveland as a rookie instead of LA or NYC. The Hype Pick is going to be showered with publicity and endorsements no matter who he ends up playing for.
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    Default Re: Wolves GM David Kahn Implies the Draft Lottery is Rigged

    Quote Originally Posted by ksuttonjr76 View Post
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    Personally, I don't believe it's rigged. However, I would LOVE to see how many times the #1 team had a corresponding "feel good" story attached to it or the #1 pick was born/raised in the state.

    As a side note, am I the only who noticed that the Cavs got the #1 and #4 picks which was the same age as the boy representing the Cavs? Honestly, that was only reason why I even let my mind entertain the "rigged" theory.
    But the 4 come before the 1, so you are rigging the order to get your preferred outcome.

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