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Thread: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

  1. #51
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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Well look who decided to come out of his ESPN loft to give us stats. Good to see you count.

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    Intuition over Integers McKeyFan's Avatar
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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by Brad8888 View Post
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    Yep, if the vast majority of posters observe an improvement in performance overall with a better record and a decided difference in playing style, differences in rotations that happen to coincide with the prevailing opinion the board has had for about two years prior to the change having been made, differences in how much time is being given to younger and more effective players which also matches what many here had been calling for, and an overall positive difference in player and team attitudes (except when Lance got inserted and apparently caused issues, which was then quickly corrected) that has been very evident even beyond the honeymoon period, there is no way anyone could possibly reach any type of conclusion who the better coach is, when even the players who have played for both have all but come straight out in the media with their own conclusions that appear to be the same ones that most of us, as posters, seem to be coming up with.

    Nope, there is no way that any of us can conclude anything ever, really...
    Exactly.

    At some point, you have to tell your buddy Descartes to get a life. You exist, dude.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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  4. #53
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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Well, the only thing that going to bridge that divide is the Pacers going to the playoffs and winning some games. It would be kind of hard to say they're not a playoff team at that point...winning a couple against one of the non-trainwreck clubs.
    [~]) ... Cheers! Go Pacers!

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  6. #54
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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by ilive4sports View Post
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    Is there something you want to tell us about you and Stacy Paetz.... or Denari?
    While it would be a juicy story, sadly the bar for keeping me happy is a lot lower than that. Saying hello and not getting stomped by 25 points is about all it takes.

    No offense to Chris, but he's not my type.

    No offense to Stacy, but my wife might read this.

  7. #55
    Intuition over Integers McKeyFan's Avatar
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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by docpaul View Post
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    I'd interview everyone and their uncle, and then pick the best.
    Let's leave out the uncle. Too complicated.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by geetee View Post
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    Didn't I read somewhere that Frank consults Larry quite a bit about coaching the team. I think it's great he utilizes a mentor, but it leads to the question of how many of the decisions are his alone. I really like what Frank has done, but I'd feel better about him if I knew for sure he was the one with the original ideas for the changes that have been made.
    Given his inexperience and the circumstances by which he got the job Frank should consult LB. I would not be as impressed with him if he didn't.

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  10. #57
    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by count55 View Post
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    2008 - .495
    2009 - .467
    2010 - .536
    2011 - .457

    Thanks count, your whole post is great.

    Wow I didn't realize this years schedule was so front loaded, and if I remember correctly, November wasn't too bad so December and January as far as strength of schedule is concernd were murder

    I've always said that if a team didn't win at least 40 games they don't deserve to be in the playoffs

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by speakout4 View Post
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    Given his inexperience and the circumstances by which he got the job Frank should consult LB. I would not be as impressed with him if he didn't.
    Honestly I would expect every coach to consult with the GM.

  12. #59
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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by count55 View Post
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    He's responding to me.



    This was from the recap on 8p9s last Saturday after the lost to the Kings. Within hours after it was posted, the Pacers went out and lost to Detroit.



    ___________




    With the exception of last season, this is revisionist history. In 2008, the Pacers were eliminated after 81 games. In 2009, they were eliminated after 79 games. They were in big holes and were chasing, and large numbers of people on this board wanted the games to be meaningless, but the Pacers were trying to make the playoffs.

    There are differences between this finish and the three previous years, however, most of them are external to the Pacers. The biggest difference is that there is no real chase for the last spot. The Pacers have it, and there's no team coming hard and fast to take it.

    This team with this record would have been 3 1/2 games out of the playoffs on April 2nd last year. They would have been 1 1/2 games out in 2009, and 1 game out in 2008. That the Pacers are going to make the playoffs is at least equally a function of a lower hurdle as it is anything going on within the organization.

    The overall point wasn't that this is exactly the same thing - it's similar, but not the same. It wasn't that this was going to happen even under O'Brien - it would not have. The point was that this was a basketball team with a lot of problems. Way more than can be explained away by either bad coaching or youth.

    The point was that as they enter their summer of opportunity, I don't think they have a very sound foundation.

    Oh, yeah, somebody mentioned strength of schedule - here are SoSHR's (SoS adjusted for home/road games) for these stretches (last game in Jan thru 1st game in Apr) in each of the last three years:

    2008 - .495
    2009 - .467
    2010 - .536
    2011 - .457
    Actually, I really was just responding to Unclebuck. LOL Nice to see you posting again, though.

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    Wasting Light Hicks's Avatar
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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Anyway, count et al, you make some great counterpoints, and I acknowledge what you're pointing out.

    With that said, I still feel better about the team now than I did with O'Brien in charge. Though I wasn't anti-O'Brien from day 1 as some were, by last year I was done with him, and it wasn't fun having him around this year at all, for me.

    I like what Vogel is trying to do, I'm glad the youth on this roster are getting more experience under their belts, and I don't necessarily think things are as gloomy as they can sometimes appear to be.

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    There was no significant stretch under Jim when he was attempting to implement his strategy where this team excelled. They never "got" Jim's system because their talents are not cut-out for it...and Jim never gave up trying to force it. Frank, on the other hand, is simply playing the guys most traditional coaches would have on the floor. What Frank is doing is not that difficult. His system is simple and guys naturally pick up on it. The simple truth is, they are competing better regardless of what you may see in the standings or box score. The games are simply more competitive.

    So, is it different this year? You bet it is. The team is growing in confidence down the stretch and they believe their coach is leveraging their talents thus giving them a decent chance to win. That changes everything, so absolutely, things are different and better under Vogel.

    Now, there was a stretch earlier this season under Jim that the team played well. But Jim turned around and attempted to convert Josh into Troy Murphy. That action was the beginning of the end for Jim O'Brien in Indiana. Rather than modifying his strategy to better fit the strengths of the players on this team, he had a rigid plan that was going to get implemented come hell or high water. Like forcing a shot, total fail.

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    One thing that seems to be getting glossed over in this thread is that our youth (Hibbert, Paul G., Josh, Rush, Tyler and Collison) are playing massive roles this year. That's a lot of inexperience that is clearly growing up in front of our eyes. I guess my point is that comparing 2008 and 2009 is virtually worthless and comparing an injured team from last year is even more worthless.

    What might be worth comparing is Jim's record with this team versus Frank's. It's not even remotely close. Not in the way the team is playing or the results.

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  18. #63
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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Besides the fact that in years that were otherwise going nowhere O'Brien still relied on players that weren't in our long term plans and gave the younger players inconsistent roles, quick hooks, and DNP-CD's... and now that has changed... But there's also the not-so-small issue where the team is playing a better brand of basketball instead of that cr... errrrrr sh.... errrrrr system that O'Brien preached.

    Regardless of who is chosen for the next coach I hope to never see anything like O'Brien's brand of basketball in Conseco ever again (unless it's being played by the opposing team because that means we stand a very good chance of beating that team).

    And I like the point made that comparing Vogel to O'Brien is pointless. It's comparing Vogel to other potential Pacers' coaches that matters. The only reason O'Brien needs to be in that discussion at all is to make sure the team goes nowhere near O'Brien Ball again....

    ...IMHO...
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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    "A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, that’s teamwork."

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by count55 View Post
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    Oh, yeah, somebody mentioned strength of schedule - here are SoSHR's (SoS adjusted for home/road games) for these stretches (last game in Jan thru 1st game in Apr) in each of the last three years:

    2008 - .495
    2009 - .467
    2010 - .536
    2011 - .457
    This is strength of schedule based on the whole year, right? I'm not suggesting that anyone do this b/c it would involve a lot of work, but I think it would put Vogel's brief tenure in perspective if we knew the won-loss record of our opponents since Vogel took over. I would hazard to guess that the won-loss record is higher than it was during the time that JOB was here this year.

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    Shooting for the Moon Day-V's Avatar
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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    I really couldn't care less about stats and numbers and all that junk, all I know is that Frank Vogel has come in, won more games than he's lost, and has us heading to the playoffs.


    I'm happy.

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I've always said that if a team didn't win at least 40 games they don't deserve to be in the playoffs
    soooo, there's still a chance!

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    As usual, the stats may not lie, but they can easily deceive. To diminish the accomplishments of this team in the post "Difference Maker" era through the use of statistics is a disservice both to the Pacers and to quantitative statistical analysis in my view, and I would guess quite a few others, though they were put together in a strong fashion that has a certain amount of persuasiveness to it.

    However, a big difference between now and previous years is the way the team is responding in various game situations. Other than during the Lance experiment, the team has exhibited poise in several close games and won most of those as a result where before those would have been losses that probably would not have been close. They are also exhibiting the classic signs of a young promising team that is being developed (finally) in that they play to the level of the competition, winning games that are unexpected against elite teams even when those teams are performing at a pretty high level, and losing games they have no business losing by lacking focus against those teams for whatever reason. In other words, there are actual growth spurts and growing pains happening in our young players and with the young team as a whole.

    These are the intangibles that statistics cannot possibly quantify because they come from the mental and emotional aspects of the game that can only be judged by watching the game and having a sense of the subtleties and nuances of it, and that is something that good coaches recognize and cultivate with their decision making, which seems to be a strength of Vogel's, especially when compared to his predecessor.

    With some now, I sense an underlying negativity about Vogel, and almost a "sour grapes" tone about the success that is happening. Also, whether some like it or not, the franchise is in a better place now than it has been in since the brawl, and the coaching change is an important, though not all-encompassing, part of that.

    Without the coaching change happening, the threads here would mostly be about what draft pick the Pacers will end up with and that the Pacers need to be tanking, who needs traded and bought out, and burning O'Brien in effigy and planning parties for the day he is finally gone, along with anguished fans displaying loathing and disgust, or publicly disowning the team. These things, while not having disappeared entirely, have reduced significantly overall.

    But, what do most of us here know? To my knowledge, very few of us here are bloggers (it's a great gig if you can get it, to be sure), and fewer still have the ability to massage numbers to support our viewpoints the way some do.

    What most here do have is the ability to watch basketball and understand what we are seeing with various levels of comprehension, and as a collective come to conclusions through productive discussions and learning from each other, with the use of a few statistics here and there to fine tune our intuitive viewpoints.

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by rock747 View Post
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    soooo, there's still a chance!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by joeyd View Post
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    This is strength of schedule based on the whole year, right? I'm not suggesting that anyone do this b/c it would involve a lot of work, but I think it would put Vogel's brief tenure in perspective if we knew the won-loss record of our opponents since Vogel took over. I would hazard to guess that the won-loss record is higher than it was during the time that JOB was here this year.

    No, not the whole year, there might be slight differences in whole year to whole year. Counts numbers are from the period being discused in this thread, End of january through end of march. What the numbers show is that this year's schedule during that time is the easiest it has been in any of the past 4 years. what the numbers also mean is that the schedule that Jim coached this season was a whole lot tougher than what Frank has coached.

    I just realized Hicks that your numbers were only until the end of March, I thought they were until the end of each season. That was my fault in not reading carefully, but it does change things when you consider that during Jim's three seasons the pacers winning % in the month of April was .615
    Last edited by Unclebuck; 04-03-2011 at 05:41 AM.

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by Brad8888 View Post
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    With some now, I sense an underlying negativity about Vogel, and almost a "sour grapes" tone about the success that is happening. Also, whether some like it or not, the franchise is in a better place now than it has been in since the brawl, and the coaching change is an important, though not all-encompassing, part of that.

    Without the coaching change happening, the threads here would mostly be about what draft pick the Pacers will end up with and that the Pacers need to be tanking, who needs traded and bought out, and burning O'Brien in effigy and planning parties for the day he is finally gone, along with anguished fans displaying loathing and disgust, or publicly disowning the team. These things, while not having disappeared entirely, have reduced significantly overall.

    But, what do most of us here know? To my knowledge, very few of us here are bloggers (it's a great gig if you can get it, to be sure), and fewer still have the ability to massage numbers to support our viewpoints the way some do.
    Let me address your points in order.

    1) Sour grapes - No sour grapes from me, just trying to keep things in perspective as each of us decides if we want Frank back and how many of these current players do we want back.

    2) Not sure about that, Jim coached the team to 36 victories twice before and with the strength of schedule since Jim left, if he would have kept coaching, who knows. It looked like Jim has lost the team last season too and they played pretty well to end the season

    3) I don't think Count massaged the numbers anymore than Hicks did (in this thread). Hicks started the thread with his major point being to compare the won loss record from end of janary until and of macrh.over the past 4 seasons. OK that is worthwhile and if that is then it is also worthwhile to look at the strength of schedule during those same periods.

    There have been many threads over the past 2 and a half months discussing the coaching differences between Frank and Jim and how everyone liks Frank more,I think we have that covered. This thread as it was started was to address a specific ppoint that I guess I off-handedly brought up.

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    So we got to beat a better NY team with Amare and Melo twice, we got to beat a way better team in Chicago once and we also got to win a game againts Boston, can somebody please remind me who was the guy guarding Amare when JOB was still the coach? do I think we win this games with Posey as our PF and TJ as our PG? Helllllllll Noooooo!!!

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Another incredibly entertaining thread. Amazing to watch some analyze, rationalize, and conceptualize.

    And yet its all so simple.

    With JOB, they never were a playoff team.

    Now with Vogel, they are.

    With JOB, they never were really close to being a .500 team.

    Now with Vogel, they are over .500.

    Is it because of strength of schedule or time of year or strength of the draft?

    No. You play who the schedule says you play.

    The reasons are Vogel is a better communicator, a better strategist and just plainly a better coach. He has had almost no practice time, no training camps and had to do the best he could with what he had on the fly. And he has far exceeded what JOB was able to do-in spite JOB having plenty of practice time and training camps. He plays different players in different rotations and whatta ya know...They are more successful. There is little doubt in my mind that Vogel could coach any of the teams JOB has ever coached and ended up with a better result. JOB is an arrogant *******. With little respect for his players or the fans. He publicly chastised both. If you cant see these things, then its quite clear why-you have blinders on.

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by cinotimz View Post
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    He has had almost no practice time, no training camps and had to do the best he could with what he had on the fly.
    Well, Not sure I agree. Vogel's been an assistant under JOb for each of these teams. He already has the familiarity with the players. It's not like he's an outside guy stepping in. He's changed the focus of the offense, yes, but he's also kept the defense relatively the same scheme-wise. And it's worsened.

    I still think he's a better fit than OB, and would be interested in seeing what he would do with the full time gig.

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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    Quote Originally Posted by cinotimz View Post
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    Another incredibly entertaining thread. Amazing to watch some analyze, rationalize, and conceptualize.

    And yet its all so simple.

    With JOB, they never were a playoff team.

    Now with Vogel, they are.

    With JOB, they never were really close to being a .500 team.

    Now with Vogel, they are over .500.

    Is it because of strength of schedule or time of year or strength of the draft?

    No. You play who the schedule says you play.

    The reasons are Vogel is a better communicator, a better strategist and just plainly a better coach. He has had almost no practice time, no training camps and had to do the best he could with what he had on the fly. And he has far exceeded what JOB was able to do-in spite JOB having plenty of practice time and training camps. He plays different players in different rotations and whatta ya know...They are more successful. There is little doubt in my mind that Vogel could coach any of the teams JOB has ever coached and ended up with a better result. JOB is an arrogant *******. With little respect for his players or the fans. He publicly chastised both. If you cant see these things, then its quite clear why-you have blinders on.
    How dare you use common sense as a basis for your reasoning. Where is your advanced statistical analysis, where are your shot charts?

    The only reason anyone would even bother to look at strength of schedule would be to in some way try and justify their own belief that Jim O'Brien was a good coach caught in a bad situation. Anyone else would just look and see that Frank with the exact same group of players is winning and most likely taking to the playoffs that Jim said could not make it.


    Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13

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  36. #75
    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

    I would agree with most of cinotimz post except the part that Vogel would have a better result with any of Jim's teams. I'd say he'd have a better record than Jim 75% of the time (yes, that might be giving Jim too much credit). The 25% represent instances where Jim happens to have the right personnel. IOW, a broken clock is still right once (or twice) a day.

    Whether Jim's system could ever lead to a championship is in the eye of the beholder. He had some success in Boston until it was exposed and he got swept. Personally, I've never seen his style have much success in the finals. While his style is not Phoenix/Dallas, it's not the worst comparison and even with extreme talent those teams are often exposed in the playoffs even though their regular season records were astronomical.

    While everyone may not agree that defense wins championships, I suspect most believe that it gets you there faster than jacking up threes.

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