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Thread: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

  1. #26
    White and Nerdy Anthem's Avatar
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Sorry about that gang. I had a crazy weekend.

    I'll catch up tomorrow.
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  3. #27
    Wasting Light Hicks's Avatar
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Really is coming down to the wire. As of just before midnight on 3/28, Hollinger's playoff odds page has us projected to go 36-46, with Charlotte at 35-47 and Milwaukee at 34-48.

  4. #28
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Really is coming down to the wire. As of just before midnight on 3/28, Hollinger's playoff odds page has us projected to go 36-46, with Charlotte at 35-47 and Milwaukee at 34-48.
    Charlotte has a crazy easy schedule to end the year, the wins over the Celtics, Knicks and Bucks have been HUGE for them. Really glad we own the tiebreaker, hope they have a slip up along the way.

    It was crazy of the talks of Stephen Jackson shutting it down after the Pacers win, and then they beat the Celtics without Jackson, and he's back against the Knicks and they beat them and the Bucks.

    We can pretty much stick a solid fork in the Bucks if we beat the Pistons and Bucks tomorrow and Friday night. Then we have to hope to stay in front or tied with the Bobcats

  5. #29

    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Great that we won the game. Too bad the Bobcats won also. At least we are keeping a little lead for now.

  6. #30
    White and Nerdy Anthem's Avatar
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Ok, time for updates. I'm no longer following Philly and New York (we won't catch them) or Detroit (they won't catch us). It's Indy, Charlotte, and Milwaukee the rest of the way. Here's what we've got.

    All of us won tonight, which is a real bummer. I hoped against hope the Cavs could pull out a win against Charlotte.

    Indy: 34-42 (6 games remaining)
    Charlotte: 32-42 (8 games remaining)
    Milwaukee: 30-44 (8 games remaining)

    On paper, we're a game ahead of Charlotte. In reality, though, we're both tied with 42 losses. They've got a good schedule the rest of the way; we've really got no room to spare. If they won out, they'd finish with 40 wins. We'd have to win 7 of our remaining 6 games in order to pass them. I didn't realize our lead was that small.

    EDIT: I originally misread Milwaukee's games left, which threw off their magic number. My bad. Their actual highest possible win total is 38, which means we need 5 wins or Bucks losses to close them out.

    Indy - X (6 games remaining)
    Charlotte - 7 (8 games remaining)
    Milwaukee - 5 (6 games remaining)

    Tiebreakers help us, though. We swept the season series with Charlotte, so we don't have to win more games than them. We just have to tie their total. Milwaukee's beaten us twice this season, though, so we need a win Friday to tie the first tiebreaker. If we get that, then we win the second tiebreaker. A win against the Bucks, then, is actually worth THREE (one for the win, one for the Bucks loss, and one for control of the tiebreaker). That's an actual must-win game for the Pacers.

    SO. Including tiebreakers, here's what we've got right now.

    Indy - X (6 games remaining)
    Charlotte - 6 (8 games remaining)
    Milwaukee - 5 (6 games remaining)
    Last edited by Anthem; 03-30-2011 at 11:33 PM.
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  8. #31
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    That's an actual must-win game for the Pacers.
    Are you sure? Cause, I've only heard that 38 times this season.

    Come to the Dark Side -- There's cookies!

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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    That's an actual must-win game for the Pacers.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kegboy View Post
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    Are you sure? Cause, I've only heard that 38 times this season.

    The confusion on this board between "Statement Game" and "Must Win" is palpable and sometimes even pathetic.

    But this game crosses the line into the "must win" category, though it doesn't completely meet the most strict definition.

    Besides, I'm flying for 24 hours to see the damn thing, they BETTER win.
    BillS

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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    In looking at the teams to be played, I would evaluate it as follows:

    Indiana -
    Milw (tossup), @NO (L), Wash (W), Atl (L), NY (tossup), @Orl (L)

    Charlotte -
    @Orl (L), Wash (W), @Cle (W), Orl (L), @Miami (L), Det (W), @NJ (W), Atl (L)

    Milwaukee -
    @In (tossup), Phil (tossup), @Orl (L), @Miami (L), @Det (W), Cle (W), Tor (W), @OKC (L)

    So, I come up with the following records:

    Indiana 35-45 with 2 additional games that are tossups (Milw, NY)
    Charlotte 36-46
    Milwaukee 33-47 with 2 additional games that are tossups (Indiana, Phil)

    I think we need to pick up one of the tossup games against either Milwaukee or New York to beat out the other two teams for a spot in the playoffs.

    I don't see Milwaukee as an absolute must-win game, but winning it sure as hell would help.

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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    To Eliminate/Hold Off the Pacers
    Pacers can still win 40 games.

    2 - Philly (39 wins)
    4 - New York (37 wins)

    9 - Charlotte
    11 - Millwaukee




    Draft position "race"
    Pacers can lose 48 max
    Pacers can finish no higher than 7th in the lottery.
    Locked "ahead" of Pacers
    Cavs
    Minny
    Kings
    Wiz
    Raptors
    Nets

    (Pacers win or opponent loss reduces this number)
    1 - Pistons
    4 - Clips
    5 - Fawns
    5 - Warriors
    7 - Kitties

  14. #35
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    BTW, the Orlando game is a win. They will be sitting guys. They are 4 games from up or down already, so they are 100% going to be locked into their seed by game #82.

    Even Atlanta could be locked into their seed by the time the Pacers face them.

    If the Knicks aren't careful that game in Indy could be very dangerous for them. Lose the season series and risk the Pacers tying them on game #82, depending on how you feel about Chicago vs Miami.

    The Knicks catch Chicago and Boston and both might still be fighting for wins. Boston to change seed and Chicago to get Final home court versus any team other than the Spurs.

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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    The confusion on this board between "Statement Game" and "Must Win" is palpable and sometimes even pathetic.

    But this game crosses the line into the "must win" category, though it doesn't completely meet the most strict definition.

    Besides, I'm flying for 24 hours to see the damn thing, they BETTER win.
    Just curious.....but did you say that you're flying into Indy to watch this game? Where are you flying in from that it will take you 24 hours go get to Indy?
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by CableKC View Post
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    Just curious.....but did you say that you're flying into Indy to watch this game? Where are you flying in from that it will take you 24 hours go get to Indy?
    I've been in India on business for about 2 weeks. Specifically set my return date so I'd be back for the game, can't stand missing them unless I have to.

    Sounds better the other way, though, doesn't it?
    BillS

    "Every time I pitched it was like throwing gasoline on a fire. Pkkw! Pkkw! Pkkw! Pkkw!"
    - Ebby Calvin "Nuke" LaLoosh

  17. #38
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    We'd have to win 7 of our remaining 6 games in order to pass them.
    Am I reading this wrong or does this mean the Bobcats could beat us if they win out? since we can't win 7 games if we only have 6 games left? I'm going to feel bad if I misinterpreted this somehow.

  18. #39

    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDon View Post
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    Am I reading this wrong or does this mean the Bobcats could beat us if they win out? since we can't win 7 games if we only have 6 games left? I'm going to feel bad if I misinterpreted this somehow.
    I believe a "win" also includes losses from the competing teams. That's how the magic number works if I'm not mistaken. So it is a combined wins from the Pacers and losses to the Bobcats or Bucks. Maybe Anthem can better answer your question.

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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDon View Post
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    Am I reading this wrong or does this mean the Bobcats could beat us if they win out? since we can't win 7 games if we only have 6 games left? I'm going to feel bad if I misinterpreted this somehow.
    If the Bobcats win out, they have won 40 games. If we win out, we also have 40 wins. Because we own the tiebreaker, we would be in the playoffs.

    What he meant with "win 7 games to pass them" was, that we would need to win 7 games to have one more win if the Bobcats would win out. But since we own the tiebreaker, we do not need to pass them, we just need to tie the wins.

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  22. #41
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    BTW, the Orlando game is a win. They will be sitting guys. They are 4 games from up or down already, so they are 100% going to be locked into their seed by game #82.
    Don't be so sure. Even after winning our last eight games in '02, we needed Milwaukee to lose their final game to tie them in the standings and win the tiebreaker. Detroit had absolutely nothing to play for, but your boy Rick did us right and beat them down anyway.
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kegboy View Post
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    Don't be so sure. Even after winning our last eight games in '02, we needed Milwaukee to lose their final game to tie them in the standings and win the tiebreaker. Detroit had absolutely nothing to play for, but your boy Rick did us right and beat them down anyway.
    So you see why I love the guy.


    I hate to count any game as "easy" given what we've seen the last few weeks from the Pacers. But the point was more about the fact that while catching NY would seem to have gone down the tubes with games like Sacto, there actually still is a good chance if the Pacers simply hold up their end of the bargain.

    The Knicks are in no way clear of Indy yet.


    Miami's weak front line is a better matchup. Plus most of the US would be behind the Pacers at this point. And it would make the Pacers series much more high profile than facing the Bulls would be.

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  25. #43
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    To Eliminate/Hold Off the Pacers
    Pacers can still win 40 games.

    1 - Philly (40 wins)
    4 - New York (37 wins)

    9 - Charlotte
    11 - Millwaukee




    Draft position "race"
    Pacers can lose 47 max
    Pacers can finish no higher than 8th in the lottery.
    Locked "ahead" of Pacers
    Cavs
    Minny
    Kings
    Wiz
    Raptors
    Nets
    Pistons

    (Pacers win or opponent loss reduces this number)
    2 - Clips (still playing now)
    3 - Fawns
    4 - Warriors
    5 - Kitties *ignores tie break rules which Pacers own, so magic playoff number is 4 actually

  26. #44
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    We won. They lost. A good day.

    But the day is not yet over.

    Indy - X (5 games remaining)
    Charlotte - 4 (7 games remaining)
    Milwaukee - 2 (7 games remaining)

    Includes tiebreakers.
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  27. #45
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    As food for thought

    Knicks have
    vs Cavs
    vs Raps
    Okay, so at that point they can cut the magic number to 2

    But then
    @PHI
    @NJ
    @IND
    vs CHI
    @ BOS

    That could easily become 3-4 to end with 40-42

    If the Pacers can get past the @NO with a win the rest of the path looks a lot better with 3 straight home games...

    Wiz
    Atlanta has been falling apart post-trade
    Knicks - you win this to stay alive AND win the tie break

    Then you go to Orlando with the Magic having nothing to play for at all.


    And of course if the Knicks slip up in their easy games it gets really interesting.

  28. #46

    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    . . . And of course if the Knicks slip up in their easy games it gets really interesting.
    and we all know they will. it's like watching a train wreck. and rooting for the wreck to happen. so both pacers and CHA think they have a chance to sneak in front of them since the knicks are determined to give everyone a chance.

  29. #47
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    I'd love the #7 seed, but I'm just not seeing how we'd pass New York.

    They're 37-38, we're 35-42. They have 7 games left, we have 5. If they win out, they'd end the season 44-38. We'd have to win 10 of our remaining 5 games to pass them.

    It's not going to happen.
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  30. #48
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Bucks still trying to hang on with OT win over the Sixers.

    If Pacers can steal one vs. the Hornets on the road, that could turn out to be the biggest win in this process.

    A loss at New Orleans and a win by the Bobcats against the Wizards and they're back within a game.

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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    I'll just edit this post and bump instead. Loss tonight in NO pretty much ends the NY chase I think, but Kitties fail too so it looks pretty set that it's #8 vs the Bulls with 10000 Bulls fans driving down for both Indy games.
    Weee...



    To Eliminate/Hold Off the Pacers
    Pacers can still win 39 games.

    2 - New York (38 wins)

    8 - Charlotte
    9 - Millwaukee



    Draft position "race"
    Pacers can lose 47 max
    Pacers can finish no higher than 8th in the lottery.
    Locked "ahead" of Pacers
    Cavs
    Minny
    Kings
    Wiz
    Raptors
    Nets
    Pistons

    (Pacers win or opponent loss reduces this number)
    1 - Clips (hang on another day with win over OKC)
    3 - Fawns
    4 - Warriors
    4 - Kitties *actually 3 games for playoff elimination due to tiebreak


    So "draft" vs "playoffs" is tracking about 12th vs 15th. Oh no, definitely tank to move up those 3 s**** spots in a s***** draft, if you don't mind me being vague about my opinion.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 04-03-2011 at 09:38 PM.

  32. #50
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    Default Re: It returns: Anthem's "Annual" Magic Number Thread

    Sixers eliminate Indy from 6th, Knicks are on the verge of doing the same at 7th. Drat.

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