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Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

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  • #1

    Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

    Here's an absolutely great article from Indycornrows. Stat-heads should love this one.

    Two things that surprised me are that since O'Brien's departure:

    1. Hibbert hasn't been more effective in the post.

    2. Collison hasn't been more effective in running Pick & Roll sets.

    http://www.indycornrows.com/2011/3/9...uths?ref=yahoo
    Numeric Narratives: Pacers' Hidden Truths

    The_outside_world_tiny by Ian Levy on Mar 9, 2011 8:03 AM EST in Indiana Pacers Stats

    * 7 comments
    * Story-email Email
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    Indiana Pacers' Darren Collison (2) is pressured by Houston Rockets' Kyle Lowry, left, during the first half of an NBA basketball game on Saturday, March 5, 2011, in Houston. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

    Pat Sullivan - APMore photos »

    4 days ago: Indiana Pacers' Darren Collison (2) is pressured by Houston Rockets' Kyle Lowry, left, during the first half of an NBA basketball game on Saturday, March 5, 2011, in Houston. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

    Browse more photos »

    When Frank Vogel took over as Pacers' Head Coach we saw two immediate changes on the offensive end. More possessions for Roy Hibbert in the low post and more pick-and-rolls and isolations for Darren Collison. These were two things that Pacers' fans had been screaming for since the beginning of the team's stunning slide in early December.

    The Pacers went on a tear to start Vogel's tenure and the offense appeared to take off. The team saw a big jump in their per game scoring numbers and even ran off 12 straight games of 100 points or more. This happened because the team focused on pushing the pace but their overall offensive efficiency essentially stayed the same.

    The fact that the Pacers saw such a dramatic initial bump under Vogel and padded their stats with some big wins against terrible teams has obscured the fact that the offense really hasn't improved all that much. Under Vogel the Pacers have been scoring 104.9 points per 100 possessions. Under Jim O'Brien they were scoring 104.0 points per possessions.

    These early successes under the new regime obscured an important fact that the team seems unaware of (I sure hope not) or unwilling to accept: Hibbert in the low post and Collison working in isolation or pick-and-rolls have been extremely inefficient offensive sets for the Pacers.

    Star-divide

    Here are a few numbers from Synergy Sports:

    * 50.6% of Roy Hibbert's possessions this season have been used in post-ups. In those situations he's averaging 0.82 points per possession, good for 88th in the league. He's shooting 41.9% and turning the ball over on 11.9% of those possessions.
    * 20.9% of Darren Collison's possessions this season have been used isolations. In those situations he's averaging 0.82 points per possession, good for 107th in the league. He's shooting 40.6% and turning the ball over on 16.8% of those possessions.
    * 23.9% of Darren Collison's possessions this season have been used in pick-and-rolls. In those situations he's averaging 0.70 point per possession, good for 119th in the league. He's shooting 38.6% and turning the ball over on 11.5% of those possessions.

    I'd like to point out that despite the huge amounts of blame heaped on Jim O'Brien for Collison's struggles in the first half of the season, this shouldn't have been entirely unexpected. In his rookie season with New Orleans Collison averaged a terrific 0.96 points per possession on isolations, good for 31st in the league. However, he averaged 0.68 points per possession on pick-and-rolls, good for 142nd in the league.

    Now these numbers admittedly tell only part of the story. The possession statistics tracked by Synergy don't account for assists or shots created out of these possessions for other players. For example if Collison runs a pick-and-roll, drives to the basket and then kicks the ball out to Danny Granger for an open three pointer, the possession is counted as a spot-up three point attempt by Granger.

    Regardless of those issues, it's clear that these three possession types have not worked well for the Pacers this season. Possession numbers on a game by game basis for individual players are not available so we can't compare the numbers for Collison and Hibbert from before and after the coaching change. We can however look at those numbers at a team level.

    Possession Type % of Possessions Points per Possession
    Post-Ups (Season)
    10.6%
    0.85

    Pick-and-Rolls (Season)
    10.1%
    0.78

    Isolations (Season)
    12.2%
    0.84

    Post-Ups (After Vogel)
    12.5%
    0.82

    Pick-and-Rolls (After Vogel)
    10.4%
    0.82

    Isolations (After Vogel)
    14.4%
    0.82

    Under Frank Vogel the Pacers have increased the percentage of their offense which comes in post-ups, pick-and-rolls and isolations. They've had a slight bump in their effectiveness on pick-and-rolls but have declined in the other two. The Pacers have now devoted 30% of their offensive possessions this season to plays where they are scoring under 0.90 points per possession. Under Frank Vogel that percentage has jumped to almost 40%.

    There are other factors to consider and I do want to acknowledge them. Vogel took over mid-season at a point where there is very little practice time. He may not have the time to teach and refine these sets to the way he would like them to be run. Mike Dunleavy has been out for the past two weeks, the same time span when the offense really fell off a cliff. Dunleavy's ball movement and shooting ability make everything run smoother at that end of the floor. The best way to improve is by practice. It's possible the coaching staff is aware of the struggles of Collison and Hibbert in these situations but is continuing to run them in the interests of player development.

    I don't want to get my house toilet papered but I would be remiss if I didn't mention that two of the most effective possession types for the Pacers this season have been spot-ups and cuts (0.96 and 1.11 PPP), two hallmarks of the Jim O'Brien offensive system. I'm not saying we should go back to that dark time, but it's possible Obie had a better grasp of the strengths and weaknesses of his players than we all gave him credit for.

    I mentioned above that I sincerely hope the team is aware of the struggles they are having in these sets. I would expect that they are and have even more information about it than we have access to. However, the way the team consistently looks to these sets at crucial junctures of the game makes me wonder. At this point in the season I'm not sure what can be done to help Collison and Hibbert improve beyond just repetition. But the first step to fixing the problem is acknowledging that there is a problem.
    Last edited by naptownmenace; 03-09-2011, 02:41 PM.
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  • #2
    Re: Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

    Isn't one of the reasons why DCs pick and rolls aren't that great is because we don't really have a good "pick and roll" guy on the roster that is effective at doing that?
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

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    • #3
      Re: Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

      Originally posted by CableKC View Post
      Isn't one of the reasons why DCs pick and rolls aren't that great is because we don't really have a good "pick and roll" guy on the roster that is effective at doing that?
      he doesnt play them good on defense thats where my gripe is. His PnR is decent offensivly.

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      • #4
        Re: Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

        Collison's PnR defense is absolutely atrocious! On the offensive end, he's not terrible running the PnR, but we only have 1 player who is even semi-effective as the other guy and that's Hansbrough.

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        • #5
          Re: Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

          Originally posted by SMosley21 View Post
          Collison's PnR defense is absolutely atrocious! On the offensive end, he's not terrible running the PnR, but we only have 1 player who is even semi-effective as the other guy and that's Hansbrough.
          Is there any PG on the roster right now that is effective at defending the PnR?

          I am guessing that not ALL NBA Starting PGs are good at defending the PnR...heck, I'm guessing that there are other Starting Quality PGs that are as bad as DC is at it.

          I look at this team and I see that there are certain limitations from key Players that we have on the roster....such as having a PF like Hansbrough that will likely have to defend against taller more athletic PFs that can simply outplay him, like Hibbert having to defend other opposing Centers like Dwight Howard or Big Men like Amare that will likely be a bad matchup for him or even having DC and AJ going up against much taller Scoring Point Guards that will simply outscore them every time.

          That leads to the next broader question.....are these limitations from key Players something that we simply have to live with?

          or

          Is there something that can be done to prevent these limitations from affecting our play?

          Simply put...to paraphrase LeDecision.....what should we do?
          Last edited by CableKC; 03-09-2011, 02:49 PM.
          Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

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          • #6
            Re: Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

            Originally posted by CableKC View Post
            Is there any PG on the roster right now that is effective at defending the PnR?
            no but at least AJ tries DC seems to not try. But AJ seems to struggle in the PnR on offense some.

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            • #7
              Re: Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

              Really? It's a hidden truth that, when you average out our stats from the really good stretch we had with the current terrible one, our stats are similar to what they were under O'Brien? That's hidden?

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              • #8
                Re: Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

                I thought DC would be a better PG under Vogel now that he lets the team play like they want.

                He wasn't bad in the beginning, but now he just rushes.

                I don't know why or where it's coming from.

                I've actually been pretty impressed with Lance managing the point at times.

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                • #9
                  Re: Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

                  Originally posted by Hicks View Post
                  Really? It's a hidden truth that, when you average out our stats from the really good stretch we had with the current terrible one, our stats are similar to what they were under O'Brien? That's hidden?

                  Before reading this, I thought that the offense had been better since O'Brien was canned. In those 19 games, even when they were scoring more total points and winning, the offensive efficiency hasn't improved or changed much.

                  We all could see the defensive issues but I'm surprised to see that DC has really struggled scoring from PnR sets. I really thought that was his bread and butter but with the increased opportunities it's actually looked like he's a much better isolation player than PnR scorer.

                  Were you not surprised to find that out?
                  Last edited by naptownmenace; 03-09-2011, 04:07 PM.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

                    Originally posted by naptownmenace View Post
                    Were you not surprised to find that out?
                    I was surprised, even though I don't understand the stats used in this article

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                    • #11
                      Re: Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

                      Originally posted by naptownmenace View Post
                      Before reading this, I thought that the offense had been better since O'Brien was canned. In those 19 games, even when they were scoring more total points and winning, the offensive efficiency hasn't improved or changed much.

                      We all could see the defensive issues but I'm surprised to see that DC has really struggled scoring from PnR sets. I really thought that was his bread and butter but with the increased opportunities it's actually looked like he's a much better isolation player than PnR scorer.

                      Were you not surprised to find that out?
                      I'm not surprised by that at all actually. When he was playing well with the PnR with JOB, he was running it with Hans mostly, who is the best player on the team to do it with.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: Pacer's Hidden Truths - Offense isn't much better under Vogel

                        Originally posted by CableKC View Post
                        Is there any PG on the roster right now that is effective at defending the PnR?

                        I am guessing that not ALL NBA Starting PGs are good at defending the PnR...heck, I'm guessing that there are other Starting Quality PGs that are as bad as DC is at it.

                        I look at this team and I see that there are certain limitations from key Players that we have on the roster....such as having a PF like Hansbrough that will likely have to defend against taller more athletic PFs that can simply outplay him, like Hibbert having to defend other opposing Centers like Dwight Howard or Big Men like Amare that will likely be a bad matchup for him or even having DC and AJ going up against much taller Scoring Point Guards that will simply outscore them every time.

                        That leads to the next broader question.....are these limitations from key Players something that we simply have to live with?

                        or

                        Is there something that can be done to prevent these limitations from affecting our play?

                        Simply put...to paraphrase LeDecision.....what should we do?
                        Price and Foster did a fantastic job handling Nash at the end of the phoenix game, in the PnR. It was so good, Nash stopped trying to do it. (I don't exactly remember what they were doing, but it always ended in Foster and AJ doubling Nash.)

                        Vogel had learned a defensive scheme from the team they played before (Memphis? maybe) and implemented it.

                        The problem is, I don't know if any other two guys could do that, on this roster. I would think Hans and Josh could, but they haven't. And we really need to have Roy finishing games. So maybe..simply, Foster needs to be the PF at the end of the game.

                        Price's problem, to me, is more the chasing guys around screens..He often gets caught on them.

                        Quite frankly, I'm not surprised about the offense. I don't like it in the second unit (they live off of defense, and hoping one of Dahntay, Hans, or Price is hot) and the offense in the second unit has been poor since Dun went out.
                        Last edited by Sookie; 03-09-2011, 04:51 PM.

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