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Thread: In defense of Posey

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    Default In defense of Posey

    I am not writing this to defend our coach, however I want to highlight our last game to defend a roster move that people complain about on an hourly basis around here. This is the utilization of James Posey, specifically during Monday’s game vs. the Clippers) . People rave about our small ball lineup with Danny at the 4 and Posey has essentially been utilized as a small ball 4 to facilitate a similar lineup.

    In fact, you can see from the included info that Posey replaced granger and Dunleavy the two times he entered the game. Small ball has been what has helped our offense recently. Griffin torched us Monday, but not against James Posey.

    5:18 James Posey enters the game for Danny Granger 64-71

    4rth
    8:19 Jeff Foster enters the game for James Posey 88-91

    5:26 James Posey enters the game for Mike Dunleavy 92-102

    2:15 Darren Collison makes driving layup 104-107

    0:00 End of the 4th Quarter 107-114

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playby...17012&period=4

    When Posey entered the game for the first time (5:18 remaining in the third quarter) the score was pacers 64 clippers 71. When Posey left the game (8:19 remaining in the 4rth) we trailed 88-91. During the three minutes Posey was the clippers lead grew to 102-92. Why wouldn’t you bring Posey back? After bringing Posey back in (5:26 remaining) we shrunk the deficit to 3 at 104-107(2:15 remaining). I am trying to use this analysis to show that there are concrete reasons to believe Posey is an effective small ball 4 who deserves just a little respect. In the game I am analyzing, while Posey was on the floor we outscored them 39-32. I am making the argument that utilizing James Posey is not always a bad move.
    Last edited by spazzxb; 01-18-2011 at 08:57 PM.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    If these were stats over the course of the season, your argument would hold weight. One game does not show the full story. What you're talking about is the +/-, and Posey's +/- for the season is 2nd lowest on the team (of players who regularly play), coming in just behind Solomon Jones'
    Grown Man Ball

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    Quote Originally Posted by SMosley21 View Post
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    If these were stats over the course of the season, your argument would hold weight. One game does not show the full story. What you're talking about is the +/-, and Posey's +/- for the season is 2nd lowest on the team (of players who regularly play), coming in just behind Solomon Jones'
    Much of the time he comes in occurs when the team is stagnant and needs quick points so it isn't surprising that his +/- is low.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    Quote Originally Posted by SMosley21 View Post
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    If these were stats over the course of the season, your argument would hold weight. One game does not show the full story. What you're talking about is the +/-, and Posey's +/- for the season is 2nd lowest on the team (of players who regularly play), coming in just behind Solomon Jones'
    I use it to make two claims(copied below). I believe it is sufficient evidence for these minimal claims.

    I am trying to use this analysis to show that there are concrete reasons to believe Posey is an effective small ball 4 who deserves just a little respect.

    I am making the argument that utilizing James Posey is not always a bad move.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    1. Don't fonfuse me w/ facts (JO'B?), mi mind is made up!
    2. Still does not explain McBOB DNP-CD
    3. Never, Ever use "Defense" and "Posey" in the same sentence w/o the word "No".
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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    Quote Originally Posted by PacerGuy View Post
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    1. Don't fonfuse me w/ facts (JO'B?), mi mind is made up!
    2. Still does not explain McBOB DNP-CD
    3. Never, Ever use "Defense" and "Posey" in the same sentence w/o the word "No".
    I don't know what is going on with Josh. Never claimed his exodus made sense to me, however josh has not been proven to be someone you bring in to jumpstart an offense.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    the last time we played the clippers and a similar sort of thing happened, albeit not to this extent, i brought up stats indicating that griffin did basically nothing against posey while posey was in the game...not to mention when posey tossed griffin out of bounds under the basket while grappling for a loose ball...

    ...and got laughed out of the house on here by a few fellas...something about it being based on a small sample size and therefore not credible.

    griffin did most of his damage that game matched up against mcroberts if i recall...not positive though...i'd have to look back at the stats. i didn't get to watch this game so i can't really comment...but, the trend sounds similar from what you describe.
    Sometimes a player's greatest challenge is coming to grips with his role on the team. -- Scottie Pippen

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    Quote Originally Posted by jcouts View Post
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    the last time we played the clippers and a similar sort of thing happened, albeit not to this extent, i brought up stats indicating that griffin did basically nothing against posey while posey was in the game...not to mention when posey tossed griffin out of bounds under the basket while grappling for a loose ball...

    ...and got laughed out of the house on here by a few fellas...something about it being based on a small sample size and therefore not credible.

    griffin did most of his damage that game matched up against mcroberts if i recall...not positive though...i'd have to look back at the stats. i didn't get to watch this game so i can't really comment...but, the trend sounds similar from what you describe.
    Defending anything associated with a decision Jim may have made is a brave thing to do around here, doesn't matter if your right or not.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    Umm..that's nice.

    Here's a much better site for matchups/lineups:
    http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bi...17&game=INDLAC

    Posey spent 6 minutes without Griffin even on the court. And if you watched the game you heard the Clips announcers talk about how he was gassed when he was pulled near the end of the 3rd. Also during the nice late 3rd bump (+6) to Posey's night the Clips had the awful lineup of Bledsoe (playing him to teach him), Aminu (ditto, and even more mistake prone than Eric B), Diogu (please), EJ and Blake. The Clips true rooks were a mess as they normally are and Blake was starting to drag. Posey hit a 3, but that was about it during this stretch.


    Griffin returned in the late 4th to face Posey, Pacers down 11.
    Blake proceeded to draw a 2 shot foul against him, then assist on the Jordan dunk. However since Rush hit a 3 (ast Granger) and Granger hit a 3 (ast Collison) to go with a Foster dunk (ast Granger), technically Posey was part of the great +4 run.

    That's right, thanks to 2 3pt shots the Pacers gained 4 points on 2 makes vs 3 makes. At that point it's a 7 point game. It ends that way. There's your secret to how Posey kicked some +/- butt...he let Rush and Danny hit 2 bombs.

    Now Posey did get credited with a steal on Griffin that eventually led to Danny's 3pt shot, but not from a Posey pass on some break or anything. 11 seconds pass between the steal and the 3pt make.

    Posey also continues on to draw 2 FTAs (1-2) on Jordan and miss a 3.

    Griffin goes on to contribute to the final 7 Clips points with 2 shots near the rim and an assist to Baron for a 3 ball.



    So let's recap - final stretch with Posey vs Blake, Blake assisted on or scored ALL OF THE CLIPS FINAL 11 POINTS. EVERY SINGLE POINT.

    Posey, OTOH, was a major player in scoring 1 of the Pacers final 15, had one steal that did lead to something eventually, and a meaningless defensive rebound with the game over...oh, and a missed 3 as well.



    Were it not for Rush outrebounding Jordan and drawing a foul (2-2) and then Collison making a steal and taking it the other way for 2, the game would have been worse than 7 and Posey's awesome +4 flurry would have been ruined. The one built almost entirely on Collison, Rush and Granger.


    I love the +/- stat, but it requires lots of data and lots of CONTEXT. Granger went for 32 on 9-16 with 5 assists and 2 steals and went +2 for the game, Collison went for 30 on 10-17 with 8 assists and 2 steals and went -2 for the game, and Rush went 10 on 3-8 with 7 boards (from the SG spot) and 2 assists and was -7 for the game.

    How does that happen? His name is Mike Dunleavy, of 1-10 fame and a -14, including a dreadful short -10 stint in the early 4th. A fair portion of that was how poorly he and and Collison matched up with Baron (outsized DC and killed him), Foye and EJ. Also the whole Granger guards Griffin "going small" schtick freaking tanked instantly at that point.

    Swap Posey with Granger in that lineup (DC, Dun, George, Danny, Foster) and see how nice his +/- looks for the game.


    The lineup was dumb, going small vs Griffin on fire and Jordan, which was amplified by the size issue of Baron vs DC.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 01-18-2011 at 09:30 PM.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    As I mentioned in the post game thread, here's a non Blake Posey moment.

    End of 3rd, they run the ultra high PnR for EJ which pulls Solo way out (this is why you use Josh instead). Rush picked clear, EJ blows past Solo and by 2 feet before the FT line he's already a step or two ahead of both of them.

    Down by the right block sits Posey keeping a close eye on his man in the corner as the ball literally drives down mainstreet for the classic standard EJ dunk, what he's known for. (what, he's not known for those? go figure)

    Posey makes a half-hearted attempt to kinda come to the rim, then clearly leans away from the poster shot instead. Nice effort, great awareness.

    Let's do the math:

    100% make rate on dunk * 2 points = 2 points
    50% make rate on open 3 in corner * 3 points = 1.5 points

    With 3 seconds left you ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS come to defend the rim. *

    Maybe he kicks it out clean, maybe that shot goes in, but the odds are much worse than the odds of that uncontested dunk. Josh might have fouled him, but like a Dale or Tony Davis he d*** sure would have come to stop that s***. Ditto Roy while we are at it, or Hans.







    *unless you are up by more than 2 at the end of the game in which case you laugh at the dude's meaningless highlight reel play as you defend the arc

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    http://www.82games.com/1011/10IND9.HTM

    James Posey:

    Pacers' Points Per 100 Possessions with him: 97.7
    Without him: 106.3

    Pacers' Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions with him: 101.8
    Without him: 106.2

    Net loss of 4.2. There's your +/-.

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    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    In defense of Posey...at least he's better defending than Troy Murphy. Overall, there's not much difference because at least Troy could shoot. Newsflash: James Posey is NOT a good 3 point shooter.

    You know what's worse? Blake Griffin had his season high yesterday because Jim O'Brien doesn't know how to coach. Josh McRoberts sits once again and he and his athleticism may have been our best chance to slow down Griffin.

    Nobody is claiming Josh is all that good. He's just not going to hurt you as bad as putting idiotic mismatches in the opponents favor out on the floor.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    This isn't a case where a player has scored 32 points on 12 for 12 from the field and is 8 of 8 at the FT line and on the last play of a game dribbled the ball off his foot and allowed the other team to win by a point so someone says "he lost the game for us".

    There's plenty of evidence to support the notion Posey is used too much and/or improperly. We can play the dueling statistics game and try and explain something away with some numbers that may or may not be in context or suffers from some skewing based on other factors. ...Or you can just watch the games and know when you see good basketball and bad basketball.

    Contrary to Capt Contradiction's oft stated love for using stats, most times you can learn all you need just by watching the games. You don't always need stats to tell you what your eyes showed you.

    ..IMHO
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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    The last few games the "small ball lineup" has consistently gotten us back in games. Ever since roy's struggles, we have issues scoring otherwise. Josh does not help us generate points, Tyler wasn't getting the job done, we are weak at the 4 and have been all year. As I pointed out in the thread Posey replaced Danny and Dunleavy in the lineup. If you want to complain small ball go ahead but Posey didn't check in for a big. Posey filled grangers role in a small ball lineup. Its not ideal but small ball has been effective. If we are going small Posey becomes the only option at the 4 other than granger. Going small brings in an extra shooter to help us score. If the traditional lineup was effective there would be no need to go small. If Tyler was getting the job done we probably never would have seen Posey in yesterdays game. Before he exchanged places with tyler alot of people complained about Joshs lack of offense so I find it hard to believe that these same people think he is the answer when the team can't put points on the board. Again I think Josh should play some, but if the team needs scoring, Josh isn't the guy.
    Last edited by spazzxb; 01-18-2011 at 11:23 PM.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    seems to me posey has fallen out of the rotation. his appearences are more a function of roy/tyler/jeff poor play than anything else. if they play well, posey never breaks a sweat.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    If you can find footage of the fouls you will see why i believe they were both bad calls. 1Griffin Diving sideways because he was stuck had nowhere to go, 2 and Posey being effective backing Griffin out of the picture on a rebound. Even if the fouls were legitimate it was enough to Make Griffin start whining so at least he was affecting him more than anyone else. Fine use the excuse Griffin was tired , whatever, Poseys play was not hurting the team. Notice you won't even allow a claim with as little praise as saying Posey is not worthless. You use exaggerated phrasesl and try to belittle me and act like I am giving high praise when I am not. I am just saying the people who call him a worthless piece of crap aren't being fair. People complain about him in games that he doesn't even play in. Just because he gets 1 minute of play someone will show up and say see I told you Job's and idiot. Thats the environment around here and its unwarranted.

    also thanks for putting effort into a thought out response, I just don't like the ,"Posey's awesome +4 flurry" garbage you threw in with your content. Your right that website is a lot better.
    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Umm..that's nice.

    Here's a much better site for matchups/lineups:
    http://www.popcornmachine.net/cgi-bi...17&game=INDLAC

    Posey spent 6 minutes without Griffin even on the court. And if you watched the game you heard the Clips announcers talk about how he was gassed when he was pulled near the end of the 3rd. Also during the nice late 3rd bump (+6) to Posey's night the Clips had the awful lineup of Bledsoe (playing him to teach him), Aminu (ditto, and even more mistake prone than Eric B), Diogu (please), EJ and Blake. The Clips true rooks were a mess as they normally are and Blake was starting to drag. Posey hit a 3, but that was about it during this stretch.


    Griffin returned in the late 4th to face Posey, Pacers down 11.
    Blake proceeded to draw a 2 shot foul against him, then assist on the Jordan dunk. However since Rush hit a 3 (ast Granger) and Granger hit a 3 (ast Collison) to go with a Foster dunk (ast Granger), technically Posey was part of the great +4 run.

    That's right, thanks to 2 3pt shots the Pacers gained 4 points on 2 makes vs 3 makes. At that point it's a 7 point game. It ends that way. There's your secret to how Posey kicked some +/- butt...he let Rush and Danny hit 2 bombs.

    Now Posey did get credited with a steal on Griffin that eventually led to Danny's 3pt shot, but not from a Posey pass on some break or anything. 11 seconds pass between the steal and the 3pt make.

    Posey also continues on to draw 2 FTAs (1-2) on Jordan and miss a 3.

    Griffin goes on to contribute to the final 7 Clips points with 2 shots near the rim and an assist to Baron for a 3 ball.



    So let's recap - final stretch with Posey vs Blake, Blake assisted on or scored ALL OF THE CLIPS FINAL 11 POINTS. EVERY SINGLE POINT.

    Posey, OTOH, was a major player in scoring 1 of the Pacers final 15, had one steal that did lead to something eventually, and a meaningless defensive rebound with the game over...oh, and a missed 3 as well.



    Were it not for Rush outrebounding Jordan and drawing a foul (2-2) and then Collison making a steal and taking it the other way for 2, the game would have been worse than 7 and Posey's awesome +4 flurry would have been ruined. The one built almost entirely on Collison, Rush and Granger.


    I love the +/- stat, but it requires lots of data and lots of CONTEXT. Granger went for 32 on 9-16 with 5 assists and 2 steals and went +2 for the game, Collison went for 30 on 10-17 with 8 assists and 2 steals and went -2 for the game, and Rush went 10 on 3-8 with 7 boards (from the SG spot) and 2 assists and was -7 for the game.

    How does that happen? His name is Mike Dunleavy, of 1-10 fame and a -14, including a dreadful short -10 stint in the early 4th. A fair portion of that was how poorly he and and Collison matched up with Baron (outsized DC and killed him), Foye and EJ. Also the whole Granger guards Griffin "going small" schtick freaking tanked instantly at that point.

    Swap Posey with Granger in that lineup (DC, Dun, George, Danny, Foster) and see how nice his +/- looks for the game.


    The lineup was dumb, going small vs Griffin on fire and Jordan, which was amplified by the size issue of Baron vs DC.
    Last edited by spazzxb; 01-19-2011 at 03:26 AM.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    I would like to thank spazzxb for making this post.

    Obviously I am not in favor of the way that Posey is being used or the amount of time he is getting, but that is not the issue of my post.

    I appreciate the fact that you started a post and put it out there. So many times people go around just responding to other people's post and eventually trying to brow beat each other into submission.

    You have an opinion, you put it out there and you are leading the conversation.

    Two thumbs up to you for doing this. This is refreshing.



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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    This goes back to what Hicks ( or was it Peck? ) that posted that JO'B is a numbers guy that could look at something like this post to justify why he does what he does. When you look at certain game situations and decide a certain course of action ( go with Posey ), it makes sense when you crunch the "numbers" a certain way ( see spazzxb post ) ....but when it doesn't work out.....well, we get what we saw with Griffin ( see Seth's post ).

    One more thing....I don't think that many of us here have a problem with playing Posey next to some combination of Hansbrough/Foster/Hibbert/McBob/Solo at the PF/C spots for 10-15 minutes a game.....where he's basically one of the Wing Players for short periods of time FOR CERTAIN SITUATIONS ( like guarding other slower Tweener Stretch Forwards....think VladRad...maybe Jamison or even Murphy ) nor do we don't have a problem with Posey himself....it's the way that JO'B is uses him that we have a problem with. He's using him in MOST situations when it comes to going with defending opposing lineups....when he should be used only in certain situations.
    Last edited by CableKC; 01-19-2011 at 02:46 AM.
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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Also during the nice late 3rd bump (+6) to Posey's night the Clips had the awful lineup of Bledsoe (playing him to teach him), Aminu (ditto, and even more mistake prone than Eric B), Diogu (please), EJ and Blake. The Clips true rooks were a mess as they normally are and Blake was starting to drag. Posey hit a 3, but that was about it during this stretch.
    While taking another glance at your work something else relevant occurred to me.Diogo scored 9 points in the first half, with Posey on the floor we completely shut him down. This is from the website you cited.
    Last edited by spazzxb; 01-19-2011 at 03:24 AM.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    Look I really love having Posey on this team. Don't take some of the sentiments on here personal though spazz.

    Posey is being utilized correctly in recent weeks. He was logging 30 minutes in some games and that is completely unwarranted though. I think that is the past that stick to people's minds. When he plays 15 minutes a night, he is a perfect compliment to what we are trying to do. Unfortunately, Posey is associated with small ball and people hate it. I don't hate it when it is for stretches of 3-4 minutes with opponents' second teams in. Our small ball lineup can kill other teams.

    It is kind of like hockey. Our first line isn't as good as most teams, but our second line is much better than most teams and can be utilized to take advantage of certain situations. Posey is a part of the second line. Mike should be as well. George, Price/Ford, and Foster. I think the big problem is not that we used Posey against Blake, but moreso that we didn't even try to use our most athletic big against the most athletic PF in the league. (Sorry Amare). Jim has used this same strategy the last several games against really athletic fours, including Amare, JSmith, and Griffin. He didn't even TRY to use him as an option. I would have loved to see more Foster and McRoberts matching up with their front court. Instead we have Mike Dunleavy and Danny Granger guarding Deandre Jordan. Really?

    It is the timing of JOB's substitutions that are the complaint instead of James Posey. Posey is the microcosm of the complaint itself.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    Also, I thought Posey was used very well in this game. It was the other bigs that I didn't care for. With Foster on Griffin most of the night, it left Deandre Jordan with a huge size advantage. Jordan was way more effective than he should have been. I would have preferred Foster's helpside with McRoberts manning up Griffin. We had no helpside defensive capability with Foster on Griffin and no other bigs out there. I'm not considering Posey a big for helpside purposes. You absolutely need to have helpside rim protection against a guy like Griffin (and Amare and Smith for that matter). We hardly used a decent double team against Griffin, and when we did, he exploited it. If the Clippers didn't hit just about every three they took in the second half, we would have won this game. Their three point shooting was what killed us.

    Posey did a great job of coming in and knocking down a couple of threes. You want him in just long enough to do that and then pull him. His defense wasn't terrible, but it wasn't an appropriate matchup for him. He is a great player to have on our team, when utilized correctly.

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    According to @ZachLowe_SI:

    James Posey leads the league in 3-point attempts/minute: 9.2 per 36 minutes played.
    about 2 hours ago via web

    He is only shooting 33.5% from there.

    Does being a below average three-point shooter who shoots more than anyone else in the NBA really jump start the offense?

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    Quote Originally Posted by Mackey_Rose View Post
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    According to @ZachLowe_SI:

    James Posey leads the league in 3-point attempts/minute: 9.2 per 36 minutes played.
    about 2 hours ago via web

    He is only shooting 33.5% from there.

    Does being a below average three-point shooter who shoots more than anyone else in the NBA really jump start the offense?


    Statistically, that's actually pretty good! His 3-point eFG% is 50.3%!

    /

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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Statistically, that's actually pretty good! His 3-point eFG% is 50.3%!

    /
    Thanks Jim.

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    Droppin' knowledge, yo. Mackey_Rose's Avatar
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    Default Re: In defense of Posey

    Quote Originally Posted by spazzxb View Post
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    The last few games the "small ball lineup" has consistently gotten us back in games. Ever since roy's struggles, we have issues scoring otherwise.
    I'm going to break this up a little bit to make things easier on everybody. It is hard to read, but I managed, and there is just so much wrong with this post that I can't ignore it, regardless of the big block of text issue.

    First, Roy's struggles coincided with the institution of small-ball. Another classic error of cause and effect on this board. We did not switch to small-ball when Roy started struggling, Roy started struggling when we switched to small-ball.

    Roy's struggling was the effect of switching to small-ball, not the cause of the switch.

    Quote Originally Posted by spazzxb View Post
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    Josh does not help us generate points, Tyler wasn't getting the job done, we are weak at the 4 and have been all year.
    This is just completely inaccurate. Josh probably does more to help generate points for his teammates than any other player on the team. He works harder to free his teammates with off-the-ball screens than anybody, sometimes to a fault, and he is one of the best passers on the roster. His off-the-ball movement and screening, plus his passing ability, is something that I think the offense greatly missed when he started seeing his minutes reduced.

    Generating points is not just about the number of points a guy scores.

    When we were playing well in November and playing Josh and Tyler a majority of the minutes at the power forward position, that was actually a position of strength. It became a position of weakness when we stopped playing our best players at that position.

    Quote Originally Posted by spazzxb View Post
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    As I pointed out in the thread Posey replaced Danny and Dunleavy in the lineup. If you want to complain small ball go ahead but Posey didn't check in for a big. Posey filled grangers role in a small ball lineup. Its not ideal but small ball has been effective. If we are going small Posey becomes the only option at the 4 other than granger. Going small brings in an extra shooter to help us score.
    We started going small in December. Since that time, our offense has been mostly abysmal. It has not been effective. It has been a major detriment to the success of this team.

    Quote Originally Posted by spazzxb View Post
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    If the traditional lineup was effective there would be no need to go small.
    False. It was effective for the entire month of November. Then we went small in December, for no reason, and saw our team's success decline. O'Brien's idea to start being successful again was to go smaller. It hasn't worked.

    Quote Originally Posted by spazzxb View Post
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    If Tyler was getting the job done we probably never would have seen Posey in yesterdays game.
    It doesn't matter whether or not Tyler was getting the job done. The fact is, Posey was not the best option to take those minutes. The fact that JOB is unable to realize this, says a lot about him.

    Quote Originally Posted by spazzxb View Post
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    Before he exchanged places with tyler alot of people complained about Joshs lack of offense so I find it hard to believe that these same people think he is the answer when the team can't put points on the board. Again I think Josh should play some, but if the team needs scoring, Josh isn't the guy.
    By saying this, you are making the same classic mistake that those people complaining about Josh's offense were making. It isn't his job to try to get himself buckets. It is his job to help his teammates on offense, to play defense, and run the floor. That was his role, and when he was allowed to play that role, the team was winning.

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