View Poll Results: Is there such thing as a "hot streak" or a "hot hand"?

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  • Yes

    26 78.79%
  • No

    2 6.06%
  • OMG this thread again? (vnzla81)

    2 6.06%
  • is this real ? (pacer4ever)

    2 6.06%
  • Any 'hot streak' is irrelevant. (PacerDude)

    1 3.03%
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Thread: "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" - Including an article about Brandon and Tyler in college

  1. #1

    Default "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" - Including an article about Brandon and Tyler in college

    Seeing this argument about hot streaks coming up again has motivated me to gather up both flox and everyone else's opinions from different sources, look up the facts, and attempt to figure out what this is all about. Here is a very nice and really kind of neat article summarizing both points of views. It is about the game where Brandon Rush and the Kansas Jayhawks got hot against Tyler Hansbrough and the Tar Heels which is really pretty neat considering that they are both on the Pacers:

    http://www.newsobserver.com/2009/09/...ball-does.html


    Now this is the study that that article was referring to. Take a quick look at this:

    http://wexler.free.fr/library/files/...0sequences.pdf

    I obviously didn't read the whole thing, or got relatively close to reading ten pages. But the overall summary is that there is no evidence that "hot hands" or "hot streaks" exist. According to this study, the statistical probability of a player hitting ten shots or so in a row every once in a while is just that: statistical probability. Not a hot streak, not a hot hand. Such as our third quarter vs. Denver. That hasn't been done before in our franchise's history, but eventually in due time it was bound to happen due to statistical probability.. For example:

    If I flip a coin 10,000 times, will I eventually flip heads 20x in a row? Most certainly.
    If the Pacers play 82 games over multiple decades, aren't we due to have a 20/21 shooting quarter? Most certainly.

    Here is another source that would agree with this opinion and it makes sense regarding Ray Allen's 7 threes game in the Finals:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6353

    Look at the table and it makes sense. I'd also I'd recommend reading the comments as it falls directly into what we are discussing here on PD.

    Here is the middle-ground, hands on piece that is very interesting to maybe help you form your opinion on the topic:

    http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/aa121896.htm

    The last paragraph is key to gauge the overall opinion by the overwhelming majority of this board. The majority on this board is going to say, "Of course they aren't going to be hot too long; They are being guarded tighter and being double-teamed." Which, of course, makes sense.

    Here is a very good piece that explains about 99% of ours, basketball fan's, and players themselves opinion on the hot hand:

    http://getbuckets.fantake.com/2010/11/27/the-hot-hand/

    “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

    The numbers are just numbers, it is up to the people presenting or reviewing the numbers to determine what they mean. It isn’t the statistics that lie, it is the people that use them incorrectly. Intentionally or not. As is the case with any study, how you define the parameters can skew how the results look.
    This is where I personally stand. It is really as simple as other players aren’t going to get hot at certain times good shooter or not? Would Kyle Korver or, oh God, Troy Murphy have had 8 points in nine seconds under the spotlight like Reg did? Of course not. The numbers don’t consider defenses, situations, and overall make players look like robots.

    An All-Star player hits three shots in a row. What is the chance of him hitting again? According to stats, it doesn’t matter, he has a whatever % chance to hit again. But mathmaticians and psychologists, take this into effect:

    Maybe after the fourth possesion, the team doubles up on the All-Star player and he is forced to take a bad shot?
    What if the fourth possesion there are 5 seconds on the clock and the player has to do a half court heave?
    What if on the fourth possesion the shot that will be taken will decide the game , and the player doesn’t have the balls to stick it?

    This little article right here puts everything that I am trying to say in a nutshell so I will conclude my "research" (or whatever you want to call it. Googling basically) It shows both sides of the spectrum in the best way that I can put it:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...t-nba-shooting

    By some magic (know any witches?) you're the head coach of an NBA basketball team. You're down one with twenty seconds to play. Looking around the huddle, you see a power forward who normally shoots 40% from the floor, but is a scalding hot eight of ten so far tonight, and has hit his last three. Then there's your shooting guard, who normally shoots 50% from the floor, but has oddly made just two of ten so far tonight, and has missed his last two.

    One of them is going to be the first option in the play you draw up. You have got a decision to make -- and if you're like just about every basketball coach on the planet, one of the many things that will inform your decision is the reality that your power forward has some magic coursing through his veins right now. Everyone in the gym knows that right now he is hot, which means he's more likely than usual to hit his next shot.

    And that matters.

    But does it, really?

    The idea that a player can be hot ... is that something you know, or something that you think you know?
    So I just wanted to put out both opinions on here, put up a poll, and just try to gauge some interest on an otherwise boring Monday. Discuss.
    Last edited by hoops_guy; 12-20-2010 at 02:52 AM.

  2. #2
    I have a Member xBulletproof's Avatar
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    Default Re: "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" - Including an article about Brandon and Tyler in college

    I know you haven't been here long, so I'll fill you in. This topic has been done. That debate you saw wasn't new. It was spill over from a previous topic, just like this one.

  3. #3
    I have a Member xBulletproof's Avatar
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    Default Re: "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" - Including an article about Brandon and Tyler in college

    Well .... the other one didn't have a poll I don't think ......

    It happens. I've seen people repost the same topic when it's still on the 1st page. No biggie.

  4. #4

    Default Re: "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" - Including an article about Brandon and Tyler in college

    Is there an option for "Yes there is such a thing as a hot hand, but not to the extent that some people seem to believe."?
    That'll do.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" - Including an article about Brandon and Tyler in college

    Quote Originally Posted by pig norton View Post
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    Is there an option for "Yes there is such a thing as a hot hand, but not to the extent that some people seem to believe."?
    This, I believe there is such a thing as a hot hand in a single game, but if it extends beyond that game it isn't just a hot hand it is the player is just good.

  6. #6

    Default Re: "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" - Including an article about Brandon and Tyler in college

    Keep this topic away from flox.

  7. #7
    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" - Including an article about Brandon and Tyler in college

    It looks like the "Yes" option is on a HOT streak.

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  9. #8
    crazy shinaniganz BringJackBack's Avatar
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    Default Re: "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" - Including an article about Brandon and Tyler in college

    It was statistical probability. It had to happen eventually.

  10. #9
    The light, not the lie. kester99's Avatar
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    Default Re: "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" - Including an article about Brandon and Tyler in college

    Yeah. It was due.
    [~]) ... Cheers! Go Pacers!

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    Default Re: "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences" - Including an article about Brandon and Tyler in college

    Quote Originally Posted by hoops_guy View Post
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    If I flip a coin 10,000 times, will I eventually flip heads 20x in a row? Most certainly.

    If the Pacers play 82 games over multiple decades, aren't we due to have a 20/21 shooting quarter? Most certainly.
    Good questions. Incorrect answers.

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