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Stretching for wins

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  • Stretching for wins

    From the start of December (6 games), Josh has started launching a lot more threes. He had 19 total in the first 16 games and has attempted 22 in the last 6 games. That's over a 200% increase.

    At the same time, his rebound totals have dipped and the team has taken a beating on the boards. His offensive boards in particular have dropped off. Kind of reminds me of the Troy Murphy days.

    The result? We've gone .333 during this period with losses to Phoenix and Milwaukee which I believe should have been won. ...including a tip in that would have been slapped away by McBob.

    It is a theory of mine that Jim makes strategic changes at the beginning of calendar months. Sometimes it involves the use of a new player in the rotation. I noticed that last year. I think Jim told Josh to launch more threes.

    Well, what do you think of this experiment?

  • #2
    Re: Stretching for wins

    Well its important he establish himself as some sort of offensive threat, so I have been encouraged with him being more aggressive trying to score. He has been driving the hoop more as well.

    I don't know if there is really a connection with the rebounding though. Someone might have to look a little more in depth with that one.
    "As a bearded man, i was very disappointed in Love. I am gathering other bearded men to discuss the status of Kevin Love's beard. I am motioning that it must be shaved."

    - ilive4sports

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    • #3
      Re: Stretching for wins

      Originally posted by Infinite MAN_force View Post
      Well its important he establish himself as some sort of offensive threat, so I have been encouraged with him being more aggressive trying to score. He has been driving the hoop more as well.

      I don't know if there is really a connection with the rebounding though. Someone might have to look a little more in depth with that one.
      Yes, a connection would need to be made. All circumstantial. However, common sense tells you that when your PF is on the perimeter he's not going to be boxing the other team out.

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      • #4
        Re: Stretching for wins

        He started taking more shots because he started hitting them. He needs to make jump-shots, otherwise he's too much of an offensive liability.

        The rebounding declined from 1 rebound every 3.9 minutes to 1 every 4.3 minutes. I mean, this is meaningless, we're talking about a handful of rebounds. His offensive rebounding was meant to decline anyway, it needed to regress to the mean. Those early enthusiasms about rebounding were always misplaced.

        The sample would be too small to extract any conclusions anyway.

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        • #5
          Re: Stretching for wins

          Mcroberts had the same opportunities early in the season but would not shoot them. He is not just camping at the three it's only in certain play sets. His placement on the court has not changed IMO.

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          • #6
            Re: Stretching for wins

            Originally posted by cordobes View Post
            He started taking more shots because he started hitting them. He needs to make jump-shots, otherwise he's too much of an offensive liability.

            The rebounding declined from 1 rebound every 3.9 minutes to 1 every 4.3 minutes. I mean, this is meaningless, we're talking about a handful of rebounds. His offensive rebounding was meant to decline anyway, it needed to regress to the mean. Those early enthusiasms about rebounding were always misplaced.

            The sample would be too small to extract any conclusions anyway.
            Yes, the sample is small but I think we might agree that there has been a distinct change in strategy.

            In addition to McBob, Hibbert's offensive boards have gone down. He averaged over 3 offensive boards a game in the first 16 and 1.3 in the last 6.

            When Roy is the only big fighting for boards, the opposition will outnumber him and he is more likely to get blocked out. Also, the ball will not get tipped to him because McBob is 25 feet away.

            Finally, the other center will not have to fight as hard for boards without McBob in there...giving him more energy to defend Hibbert.
            Last edited by BlueNGold; 12-12-2010, 07:34 PM.

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            • #7
              Re: Stretching for wins

              Originally posted by BlueNGold View Post
              Yes, the sample is small but I think we might agree that there has been a distinct change in strategy.

              In addition to McBob, Hibbert's offensive boards have gone down. He averaged over 3 offensive boards a game in the first 16 and 1.3 in the last 6.

              When Roy is the only big fighting for boards, the opposition will outnumber him and he is more likely to get blocked out. Also, the ball will not get tipped to him because McBob is 25 feet away.

              Finally, the other center will not have to fight as hard for boards without McBob in there...giving him more energy to defend Hibbert on the other end.
              JOB will try to make every PF a 3 pt shooter camping out at midcourt. This has got to stop as Josh is not at all suited for this. The rebounding differential is becoming too glaring. Josh and hans are the physical players the team needs...

              Josh could start to master short jumpers.

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              • #8
                Re: Stretching for wins

                Originally posted by BlueNGold View Post
                Yes, the sample is small but I think we might agree that there has been a distinct change in strategy.

                In addition to McBob, Hibbert's offensive boards have gone down. He averaged over 3 offensive boards a game in the first 16 and 1.3 in the last 6.

                When Roy is the only big fighting for boards, the opposition will outnumber him and he is more likely to get blocked out. Also, the ball will not get tipped to him because McBob is 25 feet away.

                Finally, the other center will not have to fight as hard for boards without McBob in there...giving him more energy to defend Hibbert on the other end.
                A distinct change in strategy? Nopes, no agreement. A very small fluctuation - that happens to every player - and some regression to the norm. Is he in different spots of the floor? Have you charted that?

                Hey, Solomon Jones' numbers have gone up. How do you explain that? Do we need some macro explanation for it too?

                McRoberts offensive rebounding numbers during the first games of the season weren't sustainable. I remember I wrote a post about that. A mediocre/below average rebounder doesn't become a top rebounder without a reason. It's the dangers of small samples.

                Wait a few more months and then we'll compare how he rebounded this season relatively to how he rebounded the rest of his career when he didn't shoot any 3s at all.

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                • #9
                  Re: Stretching for wins

                  Over a 200% change over the first 6 games of the month is clearly a higher usage rate and is a planned change. It has been game by game and is not a small fluctuation if you look at the game logs.

                  I believe it is the main cause for the team's rebounding woes, Hibberts dip in production and the losses.

                  Enjoy your new stretch 4.
                  Last edited by BlueNGold; 12-12-2010, 07:46 PM.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Stretching for wins

                    I don't follow the reasoning here. How does Josh attempting a few more threes explain his subpar defensive rebounding numbers the past 2 games?

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                    • #11
                      Re: Stretching for wins

                      Originally posted by DonSwanson View Post
                      I don't follow the reasoning here. How does Josh attempting a few more threes explain his subpar defensive rebounding numbers the past 2 games?
                      You have to look beyond the obvious.

                      If Josh is not crashing the boards on offense, the opposition's starting C is going to be well rested because all he needs to do is block out a relatively slow guy with a high center of gravity...easily grabbing the defensive boards....and therefore more able to convert or grab offensive boards on the other end negating the chance for Josh to collect defensive boards. It really is all tied together.

                      Beyond that, it allows the opposing C to focus on defending Roy Hibbert. Obviously, Hibbert's production is down as well. It's a shame he's not getting any help now on the offensive boards.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Stretching for wins

                        Josh's OR avg has gone down from 1.3/game in Nov to 1.2 in December. I suppose we could tie that to an increased # of three point shots...it's not inconceivable, for sure. But his defensive rebounding has gone from 4.7/game to 4.3/game for the same periods. I don't see a good tie to what he does on offense, so what's the explanation?

                        Roy's average has gone from 6.3 def rebs/game in November to 5.2 in December.

                        Definitely a concern. And in no way (that makes a lot of sense to me) connected to the number of three pointers shot on the other end of the court.

                        -----------------

                        Well, I see B&G tied that dynamic to an opposing center who is not so tired because Josh isn't playing more in the low post on offense.

                        Not sure I'm buying that one. Where is the theoretical opposing PF while all this is going on? If he's out defending Josh, then Roy's not working so hard, no? By the same logic?
                        Last edited by kester99; 12-12-2010, 08:27 PM.


                        [~]) ... Cheers! Go Pacers!

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                        • #13
                          Re: Stretching for wins

                          Josh is never under pressure while shooting from the perimeter because teams give him that shot. In fact, they are eating it up right now. The theoretical opposing PF is cheating off of Josh and doubling down on Hibbert.

                          Edit: Another problem with our rebounding is that Tyler is not playing. Check out what happened in November versus December and it's pretty glaring.
                          Last edited by BlueNGold; 12-12-2010, 08:38 PM.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Stretching for wins

                            Originally posted by BlueNGold View Post
                            Josh is never under pressure while shooting from the perimeter because teams give him that shot. In fact, they are eating it up right now. The theoretical opposing PF is cheating off of Josh and doubling down on Hibbert.
                            So he's shooting 50 percent from three for December. That's pretty hard to pass up.

                            --------------

                            Tyler needs some of Posey's minutes, I agree. For a number of reasons....one of which is that he's shooting .323 from the three...there are more efficient options. (Although he is pretty clutch it seems. He's not bothered by the big shot nerves.)

                            As far as being a factor in the rebounding...Posey's minutes aren't really up or down from Nov to Dec, but our team rebounding is definitely down. Posey's minutes are slightly down, in fact, and his rebounding is slightly up.

                            -------------------

                            The bottom line for me is effort and boxing out. Focus more on it and it'll get better. I'm not sure I buy the 'structural' explanations at this point.
                            Last edited by kester99; 12-12-2010, 08:47 PM.


                            [~]) ... Cheers! Go Pacers!

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                            • #15
                              Re: Stretching for wins

                              I wanted to thank the post that said the stretch 4 is losing basketball. I couldn't find it.

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