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Thread: Stretching for wins

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    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Stretching for wins

    From the start of December (6 games), Josh has started launching a lot more threes. He had 19 total in the first 16 games and has attempted 22 in the last 6 games. That's over a 200% increase.

    At the same time, his rebound totals have dipped and the team has taken a beating on the boards. His offensive boards in particular have dropped off. Kind of reminds me of the Troy Murphy days.

    The result? We've gone .333 during this period with losses to Phoenix and Milwaukee which I believe should have been won. ...including a tip in that would have been slapped away by McBob.

    It is a theory of mine that Jim makes strategic changes at the beginning of calendar months. Sometimes it involves the use of a new player in the rotation. I noticed that last year. I think Jim told Josh to launch more threes.

    Well, what do you think of this experiment?

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Well its important he establish himself as some sort of offensive threat, so I have been encouraged with him being more aggressive trying to score. He has been driving the hoop more as well.

    I don't know if there is really a connection with the rebounding though. Someone might have to look a little more in depth with that one.
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    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by Infinite MAN_force View Post
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    Well its important he establish himself as some sort of offensive threat, so I have been encouraged with him being more aggressive trying to score. He has been driving the hoop more as well.

    I don't know if there is really a connection with the rebounding though. Someone might have to look a little more in depth with that one.
    Yes, a connection would need to be made. All circumstantial. However, common sense tells you that when your PF is on the perimeter he's not going to be boxing the other team out.

  4. #4

    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    He started taking more shots because he started hitting them. He needs to make jump-shots, otherwise he's too much of an offensive liability.

    The rebounding declined from 1 rebound every 3.9 minutes to 1 every 4.3 minutes. I mean, this is meaningless, we're talking about a handful of rebounds. His offensive rebounding was meant to decline anyway, it needed to regress to the mean. Those early enthusiasms about rebounding were always misplaced.

    The sample would be too small to extract any conclusions anyway.

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    Remember #31 dohman's Avatar
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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Mcroberts had the same opportunities early in the season but would not shoot them. He is not just camping at the three it's only in certain play sets. His placement on the court has not changed IMO.

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by cordobes View Post
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    He started taking more shots because he started hitting them. He needs to make jump-shots, otherwise he's too much of an offensive liability.

    The rebounding declined from 1 rebound every 3.9 minutes to 1 every 4.3 minutes. I mean, this is meaningless, we're talking about a handful of rebounds. His offensive rebounding was meant to decline anyway, it needed to regress to the mean. Those early enthusiasms about rebounding were always misplaced.

    The sample would be too small to extract any conclusions anyway.
    Yes, the sample is small but I think we might agree that there has been a distinct change in strategy.

    In addition to McBob, Hibbert's offensive boards have gone down. He averaged over 3 offensive boards a game in the first 16 and 1.3 in the last 6.

    When Roy is the only big fighting for boards, the opposition will outnumber him and he is more likely to get blocked out. Also, the ball will not get tipped to him because McBob is 25 feet away.

    Finally, the other center will not have to fight as hard for boards without McBob in there...giving him more energy to defend Hibbert.
    Last edited by BlueNGold; 12-12-2010 at 06:34 PM.

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Yes, the sample is small but I think we might agree that there has been a distinct change in strategy.

    In addition to McBob, Hibbert's offensive boards have gone down. He averaged over 3 offensive boards a game in the first 16 and 1.3 in the last 6.

    When Roy is the only big fighting for boards, the opposition will outnumber him and he is more likely to get blocked out. Also, the ball will not get tipped to him because McBob is 25 feet away.

    Finally, the other center will not have to fight as hard for boards without McBob in there...giving him more energy to defend Hibbert on the other end.
    JOB will try to make every PF a 3 pt shooter camping out at midcourt. This has got to stop as Josh is not at all suited for this. The rebounding differential is becoming too glaring. Josh and hans are the physical players the team needs...

    Josh could start to master short jumpers.

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Yes, the sample is small but I think we might agree that there has been a distinct change in strategy.

    In addition to McBob, Hibbert's offensive boards have gone down. He averaged over 3 offensive boards a game in the first 16 and 1.3 in the last 6.

    When Roy is the only big fighting for boards, the opposition will outnumber him and he is more likely to get blocked out. Also, the ball will not get tipped to him because McBob is 25 feet away.

    Finally, the other center will not have to fight as hard for boards without McBob in there...giving him more energy to defend Hibbert on the other end.
    A distinct change in strategy? Nopes, no agreement. A very small fluctuation - that happens to every player - and some regression to the norm. Is he in different spots of the floor? Have you charted that?

    Hey, Solomon Jones' numbers have gone up. How do you explain that? Do we need some macro explanation for it too?

    McRoberts offensive rebounding numbers during the first games of the season weren't sustainable. I remember I wrote a post about that. A mediocre/below average rebounder doesn't become a top rebounder without a reason. It's the dangers of small samples.

    Wait a few more months and then we'll compare how he rebounded this season relatively to how he rebounded the rest of his career when he didn't shoot any 3s at all.

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    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Over a 200% change over the first 6 games of the month is clearly a higher usage rate and is a planned change. It has been game by game and is not a small fluctuation if you look at the game logs.

    I believe it is the main cause for the team's rebounding woes, Hibberts dip in production and the losses.

    Enjoy your new stretch 4.
    Last edited by BlueNGold; 12-12-2010 at 06:46 PM.

  11. #10

    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    I don't follow the reasoning here. How does Josh attempting a few more threes explain his subpar defensive rebounding numbers the past 2 games?

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    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by DonSwanson View Post
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    I don't follow the reasoning here. How does Josh attempting a few more threes explain his subpar defensive rebounding numbers the past 2 games?
    You have to look beyond the obvious.

    If Josh is not crashing the boards on offense, the opposition's starting C is going to be well rested because all he needs to do is block out a relatively slow guy with a high center of gravity...easily grabbing the defensive boards....and therefore more able to convert or grab offensive boards on the other end negating the chance for Josh to collect defensive boards. It really is all tied together.

    Beyond that, it allows the opposing C to focus on defending Roy Hibbert. Obviously, Hibbert's production is down as well. It's a shame he's not getting any help now on the offensive boards.

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Josh's OR avg has gone down from 1.3/game in Nov to 1.2 in December. I suppose we could tie that to an increased # of three point shots...it's not inconceivable, for sure. But his defensive rebounding has gone from 4.7/game to 4.3/game for the same periods. I don't see a good tie to what he does on offense, so what's the explanation?

    Roy's average has gone from 6.3 def rebs/game in November to 5.2 in December.

    Definitely a concern. And in no way (that makes a lot of sense to me) connected to the number of three pointers shot on the other end of the court.

    -----------------

    Well, I see B&G tied that dynamic to an opposing center who is not so tired because Josh isn't playing more in the low post on offense.

    Not sure I'm buying that one. Where is the theoretical opposing PF while all this is going on? If he's out defending Josh, then Roy's not working so hard, no? By the same logic?
    Last edited by kester99; 12-12-2010 at 07:27 PM.
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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Josh is never under pressure while shooting from the perimeter because teams give him that shot. In fact, they are eating it up right now. The theoretical opposing PF is cheating off of Josh and doubling down on Hibbert.

    Edit: Another problem with our rebounding is that Tyler is not playing. Check out what happened in November versus December and it's pretty glaring.
    Last edited by BlueNGold; 12-12-2010 at 07:38 PM.

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Josh is never under pressure while shooting from the perimeter because teams give him that shot. In fact, they are eating it up right now. The theoretical opposing PF is cheating off of Josh and doubling down on Hibbert.
    So he's shooting 50 percent from three for December. That's pretty hard to pass up.

    --------------

    Tyler needs some of Posey's minutes, I agree. For a number of reasons....one of which is that he's shooting .323 from the three...there are more efficient options. (Although he is pretty clutch it seems. He's not bothered by the big shot nerves.)

    As far as being a factor in the rebounding...Posey's minutes aren't really up or down from Nov to Dec, but our team rebounding is definitely down. Posey's minutes are slightly down, in fact, and his rebounding is slightly up.

    -------------------

    The bottom line for me is effort and boxing out. Focus more on it and it'll get better. I'm not sure I buy the 'structural' explanations at this point.
    Last edited by kester99; 12-12-2010 at 07:47 PM.
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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    I wanted to thank the post that said the stretch 4 is losing basketball. I couldn't find it.

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Josh is never under pressure while shooting from the perimeter because teams give him that shot. In fact, they are eating it up right now. The theoretical opposing PF is cheating off of Josh and doubling down on Hibbert.

    Edit: Another problem with our rebounding is that Tyler is not playing. Check out what happened in November versus December and it's pretty glaring.
    They have the same problem with Posey on the floor, his .330% doesn't scare anybody, just look at the last game and the Milwaukee game.

    edit: I think they rather have Josh and Posey shooting threes than Roy killing their Center, teams are just picking their poison.
    Last edited by vnzla81; 12-12-2010 at 07:53 PM.

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by kester99 View Post
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    So he's shooting 50 percent from three for December. That's pretty hard to pass up.

    --------------

    Tyler needs some of Posey's minutes, I agree. For a number of reasons....one of which is that he's shooting .323 from the three...there are more efficient options. (Although he is pretty clutch it seems. He's not bothered by the big shot nerves.)

    As far as being a factor in the rebounding...Posey's minutes aren't really up or down from Nov to Dec, but our team rebounding is definitely down. Posey's minutes are slightly down, in fact, and his rebounding is slightly up.

    -------------------

    The bottom line for me is effort and boxing out. Focus more on it and it'll get better. I'm not sure I buy the 'structural' explanations at this point.
    I respect the opposing viewpoint that is well represented here, but there is a price you pay when you have your PF on the perimeter.

    I think the price is too high for a PF unless you have a great 3 point shooter. A lot of guys could shoot 50% from 3 given wide open shots. BTW, Josh is below 50% for December, but your point still stands. My point is that really good shooters would hit 75% or more if left wide open....wide open because they are cheating off them while helping to defend Roy.

    The price gets higher if your PF can get up on the glass and/or dunk. Josh can do that, so you lose that aspect of his game while he's 25 feet away. I suppose he can always swoop in, but if he's been asked to shoot 3's he's going to be focused on that. Not good IMHO.

    BTW, this interior threat will distract the opposing center and allow Roy better position. Again, it's all tied together.
    Last edited by BlueNGold; 12-12-2010 at 07:58 PM.

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I think they rather have Josh and Posey shooting threes than Roy killing their Center, teams are just picking their poison.
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    In fact, they are eating it up right now. The theoretical opposing PF is cheating off of Josh and doubling down on Hibbert.
    In which games have this happened?

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by cordobes View Post
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    In which games have this happened?
    I recall many instances where Hibbert has been doubled recently and we haven't been able to get him the ball. It has been an adventure even getting the ball to him in the post because he's been getting fronted. I think Charlotte and Milwaukee.

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    I recall many instances where Hibbert has been doubled recently and we haven't been able to get him the ball. It has been an adventure even getting the ball to him in the post because he's been getting fronted. I think Charlotte and Milwaukee.
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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    BTW, Josh is below 50% for December....
    21 for 42 FG%. 11 for 22 from three. Per ESPN.

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by kester99 View Post
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    21 for 42 FG%. 11 for 22 from three. Per ESPN.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/player...?playerId=3220

    Fiddy 'cent.
    Ok...I counted 43 attempts. You got me.

    I still don't agree with him playing that style...but to each his own.

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    I recall many instances where Hibbert has been doubled recently and we haven't been able to get him the ball. It has been an adventure even getting the ball to him in the post because he's been getting fronted. I think Charlotte and Milwaukee.
    Yep I remember Ilyasova helping to double Roy almost every time, there were times were he didn't even care to get to either Josh or Posey, I have seen this happening in many games, Phoenix, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Bobcats, etc.

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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    On a side note....if being an offensive liability is one of the reasons why one Player should not see the floor...then I have no clue why Foster should get any more minutes as long as he's in a Pacer uniform.

    If anything...Foster's more of an offensive liabilitythen McBob is in that Foster can't hit the 3pt shot. Now, one could argue that Foster will probably be the Center while being on the floor....but the only difference between having Foster over McBob at the Center spot is that Foster is a better offensive Rebounder ( not to say that McBob isn't a bad one in the first place ).
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    Default Re: Stretching for wins

    Quote Originally Posted by CableKC View Post
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    On a side note....if being an offensive liability is one of the reasons why one Player should not see the floor...then I have no clue why Foster should get any more minutes as long as he's in a Pacer uniform.

    If anything...Foster's more of an offensive liabilitythen McBob is in that Foster can't hit the 3pt shot. Now, one could argue that Foster will probably be the Center while being on the floor....but the only difference between having Foster over McBob at the Center spot is that Foster is a better offensive Rebounder ( not to say that McBob isn't a bad one in the first place ).
    Foster can't even hit a midrange shot consistently...and we all know he misses bunnies...yet a young Jeff Foster was nearly an all-star calibre player.

    I'd say there was something more to his game than stretching the floor...and he started on a contender.

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