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Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

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  • #16
    Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

    Originally posted by pizza guy View Post
    Stats are overrated. This sentence is the only one that matters.
    Yes. Starting with Exhibit A: Troy Murphy.

    While I agree that stats are overrated, they are often worst than that. They become misinformation because...while most have some value...interpreting them to reach valid conclusions often requires many other factors. These factors are often subjective and difficult to weigh against each other, so conclusions drawn vary by the person. It all becomes opinion...albeit with some degree of fact mixed in.

    I think we can all have our opinions and use stats to make our points, but that's all most of it is. Opinion. I suppose that's alright...

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

      Originally posted by King Tuts Tomb View Post
      The team with the best regular season record rarely wins the title. After a certain point it comes down to luck (couple shots roll out, opponents roll in) whether you win 57 or 62 games. Advanced stats can help us sort out a strong 52 win team and a weak 57 win team.

      I'd still take the Lakers to win this year but the Heat are far from finished.
      To this, I will reference our friend Kstat.

      Originally posted by Kstat View Post
      its true at any point. Good teams find ways to win despite superior secondary statistics. Bad teams find ways to lose. There's no greater secret.
      Advanced stats are another way to over-think this game. If you watch the games, you see a pattern form over 82 games. Good teams win the tough one more often because they're good. Bad teams lose more often. It's not something that you can nail down with stats. Only by watching and seeing who makes the plays when the plays really need to be made.

      Wins and losses aren't the final say in how good a team is because you have things like injuries and officiating that affect teams beyond what they can control. But, watching the games and seeing who plays the best is the real test.

      --pizza
      It's a new day for Pacers Basketball.

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

        All I think these stats reveal is that to date the Heat have played the way I expected. They beat up on lesser talented and coached teams, but struggle with teams of similar talent. If you look at who the have beaten and lost to that is pretty much what you see, with a couple of, what should be expected, exceptions. Everyone who expected them to be any better than that just fell in love with the top talent and stardom that the ignored how average, or even bad, the rest of the team is. They won't finish with a slightly better than .500 record, like someone else already stated 4th is about where they should end up record wise.

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        • #19
          Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

          I find it interesting that they added Dampier. Dallas, another team poorly constructed to contend, acquired the same guy when it became obvious they needed a real man in the middle.

          In any event, the Heat will be an interesting test. With all that talent, I cannot see them any lower than 4th in the East...but I will be surprised if they come out of it without some clever modifications. One thing they have in their favor is Riles. I have generally agreed with his personnel choices and he does have clout and a name to pull in the right pieces. I just don't see them developing into a true contender with their current personnel.

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          • #20
            Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

            Originally posted by pizza guy View Post
            To this, I will reference our friend Kstat.

            Advanced stats are another way to over-think this game. If you watch the games, you see a pattern form over 82 games. Good teams win the tough one more often because they're good. Bad teams lose more often. It's not something that you can nail down with stats. Only by watching and seeing who makes the plays when the plays really need to be made.

            Wins and losses aren't the final say in how good a team is because you have things like injuries and officiating that affect teams beyond what they can control. But, watching the games and seeing who plays the best is the real test.

            --pizza
            Last four championship teams in 5 point games:
            09-10 Lakers: 11-8
            08-09 Lakers: 10-7
            07-08 Celtics: 13-9
            06-07 Spurs: 8-9

            All close to or under .500.

            I agree, good teams do find ways to win games. But bad teams sometimes find ways to win games too.

            We all watch the games, but anecdotal evidence is only part of the puzzle. We can only watch so many games ourselves. Maybe you watch the Mavs play ten times this season and they win 8 of them. Are they a great team or did you just watch the right ten games?

            Don't get me wrong, though, stats are biased as well. How a statistician values a certain stat (what's more important, boards or points? blocks or steals?) is his own bias.

            Watching the games, looking at stats, listening to experts. They're all part of the process. Why wouldn't you utilize every tool to better understand the league?

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            • #21
              Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

              Regarding the 5 point or less games by the past four champions, isn't it likely that most of their tight games came against formidable opposition as opposed to lesser teams?

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              • #22
                Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                No
                *removed* Just keep politics and religion completely out of it, please.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                  Originally posted by Hicks View Post
                  Regarding the 5 point or less games by the past four champions, isn't it likely that most of their tight games came against formidable opposition as opposed to lesser teams?
                  Just looking through the schedule, last year's Lakers lost by five or less to Memphis and Toronto. I think we all remember beating the Lakers by one a couple years ago.

                  Losing to a middling team by a point or two is usually a matter of bad luck or a bad shooting night or the team playing over its head. Losing in blowouts to average or bad teams is a bad sign.

                  Looking at this year's Heat team, they lost a wacky game to Utah, a buzzer beater to Memphis, and beatings from Orlando, NO and Boston, probably the best team in the East. Really the only loss to worry about would be to us. The question when examining the Heat is, how good are the Pacers?

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                  • #24
                    Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                    This season is still too early to tell. Those point differentials and other numbers will move as the season progresses. If there are other teams that will blow out the Heat, or if the next Heat wins are from close games, then we will certainly see a large drop in point differential. More games are needed to determine whether the Heat are just a sleeping giant right now that needs to be waken up, or they are an overrated monster that looks strong but in reality they are weak.

                    Numbers don't lie. It's just that each person think differently and interpretation of stats and numbers of each will not be the same.

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                    • #25
                      Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                      Originally posted by King Tuts Tomb View Post
                      Just looking through the schedule, last year's Lakers lost by five or less to Memphis and Toronto. I think we all remember beating the Lakers by one a couple years ago.

                      Losing to a middling team by a point or two is usually a matter of bad luck or a bad shooting night or the team playing over its head. Losing in blowouts to average or bad teams is a bad sign.

                      Looking at this year's Heat team, they lost a wacky game to Utah, a buzzer beater to Memphis, and beatings from Orlando, NO and Boston, probably the best team in the East. Really the only loss to worry about would be to us. The question when examining the Heat is, how good are the Pacers?
                      I agree with the general idea that blowouts are much more telling than close games. Of course, any team can be blown out once in a while - when an opponent happens to have 20/21 shooting quarters, for example. That's why a blowout in itself is rather meaningless; combined with a group of other games though it is quite telling. For that reason, we can't make any huge stat conclusions out of the IND-MIA game alone. The sample size is just too small. We'd just be fooling ourselves by looking at stats of that game and thinking 'Pacers are for real'. They seem for real though when you look at stats of all games. And especially when we watch the games, instead of just looking at stats

                      As for Hicks question, I think it is very interesting, and I'd love to see some stats on 5 pt games for best teams. The fact that Lakers can lose to Raptors is no big surprise in itself. In the end, if we pit the best team against the worst team, eventually we'll have a close game, NBA teams aren't that far apart. Also, don't forget one thing - best teams have one less good opponent to play, since they don't play themselves. So they generally get more chances to have a bad game against a bad team, depending on division.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                        Originally posted by Kstat View Post
                        its true at any point. Good teams find ways to win despite superior secondary statistics. Bad teams find ways to lose. There's no greater secret.
                        I agree.

                        I mean I'm as big a stat nut as there is but....you don't get those bad or sloppy losses back later just because you scored a lot of points.

                        You scored/shot/defended well enough to be 11-4 but somehow blew 3 of those wins. HOW DID YOU DO THAT AND WHY WILL YOU STOP DOING THAT?

                        That's the magic question.

                        And more than that, even in this thread you see the defense of this analysis facing a mixed logic.

                        A) they have played a tough schedule

                        B) statistically they have played like 11-4

                        The problem is this, if they've played an 8-7 schedule that was just extra tough, then in fact their point diff and other stat rankings should look like 8-7 also. They'd have poor defense and you'd say "well, they've played 10-12 great offenses so of course their defense ranks poorly, but as they play weaker teams their defensive stats will improve as will their W-L record".

                        NFL teams might play opponents with really great running backs their first 4 games and end up looking like a team that can't stop the run. And likely their record might match that as well. Meanwhile some crap team catches 4 teams with no running game, goes 4-0 and statistically looks awesome vs the run.

                        The key is that the stats line up, ALL the stats. Wins and losses ARE A STAT, just the same as everything else. You could decide playoff spots by points allowed or by games won or by FG%. And typically these numbers tend to line up, especially over time. 12-14 games is nowhere close to a full schedule, but it's also longer than a blip.


                        So while I can fully buy that the Nets aren't a great defensive team (who thought they were, does anyone not use pace as a factor these days?) or that the Knicks are getting fat on a weak schedule, what in the hell does that have to do with the Heat being 8-7? Not one darn thing.

                        In fact it might not be so helpful to their case to point out that the Nets stink when 2 of the Heats' "big" wins have come against NJ. What are their actual big wins so far? @Philly maybe and game #3 on the year hosting Orlando for the 26 point drubbing that ultimately gets neutralized somewhat by the 9 point loss the other night.


                        Ultimately this article does more to damn the Heat than praise them. It says they have a knack for getting fat on bad teams or good nights and not coming through against the slightest adversity. And that view fits my agenda from the summer which was to show what the problem was with free agents who sought out the comfort of all-star teammates and warm beaches when they could be MMA training or focusing on winning with whomever and wherever.

                        Don't complain about the fact that Indiana can't lure those types of FAs here. We want the Durant and Hibbert types instead. Those types of players won't skip out on the chance to prove themselves and tackle a challenge.


                        ******
                        The Heat are firmly in the playoff mix, but so far they've failed to show the heart of a champion. And that's why they are being viewed as a bust. They are very mediocre against playoff caliber teams. Plus their 2 biggest losses of the season just happened, so it's not like they are turning it around lately.

                        Boston 0-2 (home loss)
                        Orlando 1-1
                        Indy 0-1 (home loss)
                        Utah 0-1 (home loss)
                        New Orleans 0-1

                        Big wins
                        Orlando
                        @NJ (5-10)
                        NJ (5-10)
                        Minny (4-12)
                        @Philly (3-12)
                        Tor (6-9, only won by 9 at home)
                        Cha (5-10, only won by 8 at home)
                        Phx (7-8)

                        I count 1 challenge there. I think Indy's loss in Philly was one of their most disappointing games in fact. Note that only 2 of these games was on the road, both against teams this article (and their W-L record) suggests are terrible.

                        And when you look closer you see that for the first 7 games this article made much more sense. They only had 2 losses, both on the road to playoff teams. Everyone else was getting pounded, and that included Orlando.


                        *****
                        Then things changed, and I don't think it's hard to see that Wade is directly tied to that.

                        Bos - he goes 2-12
                        Mem - doesn't play
                        Indy - he goes 1-13
                        Orl - he goes 6-21

                        The only really rough night by Wade that they overcame was at home against Charlotte when he went 4-13.

                        Meanwhile we are seeing a familiar pattern with Lebron as he somehow marches out huge personal numbers, including assists (ie, team game you would think), but sees his team lose.

                        Wade won without them, but so far Bosh and Lebron have failed to prove they can consistently win big without him.
                        Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 11-26-2010, 02:56 AM.

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                        • #27
                          Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                          Originally posted by pizza guy View Post
                          Stats are overrated. This sentence is the only one that matters.


                          But on the stats thing I have to always bring this up...


                          Add up a total, divide by number of games, does this stat show anything?

                          What if that's blocks? What if that's rebounds?

                          And what if that's the number of games you have more points than the other team when the buzzer sounds?

                          Wins, Winning PCT, these are ALSO STATS. They are compiled in 100% exactly the same way.

                          You are .734, are you "for real"? Hard to say. If you beat a bunch of bad teams but lost to every good team then maybe not. If you've yet to play a non-playoff team and every game has been on the road then you probably are.

                          But why should those secondary stats (wins vs playoff teams or wins on the road) matter any more than rebounds per game or defensive FG%? In my opinion they do have merit but they face the same challenge as that pesky W-L stat - CONTEXT.

                          The context question applies just as much to W-L - who, how, when, where did you win and lose, that makes a difference.

                          Stats people are not suggesting that secondary stats don't face context questions, they are actually trying to answer the context questions of the primary stat.

                          Most stat people are more in tune with this issue than the people throwing out stats as damn lies or ultimately meaningless, ironically in an effort to support the plain old zero context stat of number of games you ended with the most points.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                            Often stats with no context is a fan, or someone somehow invested in the team/player, use to try to convince themselves that everything is alright even though they see with their eyes that it isn't true. Once they convince themselves they try to convince others to add another layer of confidence that they are right. Even though in reality there is a good chance they are wrong.

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                            • #29
                              Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                              lebron loves himself too much for the heat to win a championship

                              the best player on that team is carlos arroyo
                              In 49 states it's just basketball, but this is Indiana!

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                                Seth, you nailed it. I think my frustration with this article, and other articles like it, is that they're pulling these stats out in strange contexts, IMO. You can find a stat that support nearly any viewpoint about an NBA team, and this seems to me like one of those occasions. An earlier post mentioned that this article is no more than the hype machine trying to hang on and keep hope alive in Miami.

                                What I'm saying is that when Wade, LeBron, and Bosh get BOOED OFF THE COURT AT HOME, their record and obscure secondary stats are much, much less important.

                                And when the Pacers are markedly improved on defense, putting a few wins together, seeing bigger crowds, and winning games they "shouldn't" win, the secondary stats are only a technical way to show what you can see from just watching the games.

                                Stats have their place, and I suppose a forum like this one should expect to see more than its fair share. When you have a bunch of obsessive people like us, the statistical breakdowns are going to be sought after and cross examined and beaten to death. I just personally put a lot less value in some of these stats because I think you can see who "really is" the best team(s) by watching them play. I don't know where LAL or Boston ranks statistically, but I know they're darn good. I don't know where Orlando ranks, but I know they seem like a team that's going to need the lucky bounce in the playoffs. Miami has underachieved, no matter what stats someone can pull out of a magic hat. The Pacers have been wonderfully exciting, despite being only 1 game over .500.

                                Stats are OK, I just don't like basing everything on them. Articles, opinions, team success/failure. It's about how you play, not how some nerds can slice and dice the numbers.

                                --pizza
                                It's a new day for Pacers Basketball.

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