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Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

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  • #1

    Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

    Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat
    John Schuhmann, Nov 25 2010


    To celebrate Thanksgiving, the Numbers Game has a variety of statistical dishes from around the Eastern Conference...


    Miami's 8-7 record is a mirage

    The Miami Heat have lost three straight games and at 8-7, they're easily the biggest disappointment in the league. At this point, everyone wants to diagnose the Heat's problems and wonders if Pat Riley's getting ready to push Erik Spoelstra aside. But are the Heat really doing that bad?

    If you go by winning percentage, the Heat are the 13th best team in the NBA. And yes, it's wins and losses that determine playoff position and home-court advantage in the postseason. But when it comes to point differential, Miami ranks third in the league, outscoring their opponents by 8.6 points per 100 possessions. Only the Lakers (+10.6) and Spurs (+9.1) are better.

    The issue, of course, is that the Heat have won a bunch of blowouts and lost a bunch of close games. Their eight wins have come by an average of 18.4 points, while their seven losses have come by an average of just 6.4.

    While both their offense and defense have been deficient at times this season, the Heat are the only team in the league that ranks in the top five on both ends of the floor. Through Wednesday, they have the fourth best offense, scoring 107.6 points per 100 possessions, and the fifth best defense, allowing 99.0.

    Based on their point differential, using a standard formula for expected wins, the Heat should be 11-4 and tied with the Celtics for first place in the Eastern Conference. No team in the league has a bigger discrepancy (in either direction) between their point differential and their actual record.

    The roster has its flaws, obviously. And Miami' playoff success will be determined in part by how well they match up with their opponents. But no matter who they play, the Heat will have matchup advantages of their own, as well as the talent to overcome their flaws. And the truth behind their 8-7 record is not that they're a mediocre team, but that they're a very good team that has had some bad games.


    Sorting it all out

    We knew that the Eastern Conference would be top-heavy, with three elite teams and maybe only five or six teams deserving of playoff spots. And the first four weeks have done nothing to dispel that idea.

    The Celtics and Magic, as expected, are at the top. The Heat are underachieving, but we know they're relatively fine. And the Bulls, after a 2-3 start, already look like the fourth best team in the conference as they wait for Carlos Boozer to return from his hand injury.

    Beyond that? Only the Indiana Pacers have played like a playoff team. The New York Knicks have won five straight games and sit at 8-8, but they've played by far the easiest schedule of the 11 teams not named in the paragraph above.

    Screen shot 2010-11-25 at 12.24.30 PM

    After the Knicks you have seven teams that have at least five wins and at least eight losses. Then you have the 3-12 Sixers, who have the worst record in the East, but have played a pretty tough schedule and have the 11th best point differential in the conference.

    Using strength of schedule and point differential, we can get a better feel for which of the bottom 11 teams in the East have really performed best. And what we find (see table) is that the Pacers are indeed for real, the Knicks are taking advantage of a weak schedule, and the Wizards' record is inflated by their two overtime wins over Philly.

    These numbers are in no way saying who is going to make the playoffs. But they ought to offer some comfort to fans of the Bucks or Bobcats.


    Cleveland not getting it done on either end

    We knew that the Cleveland Cavaliers would suffer a major drop-off from last season's 61 wins. But they really shouldn't be this bad. At 6-8, the Cavs sit in eighth place in the East, but based on point differential, they're the fifth worst team in the NBA. All of their wins have come by single-digits, with two coming by just two points.

    The thought process behind predicting that the Cavs would make the playoffs was a belief that they would be a pretty good defensive team. They have most of the pieces back from last year's seventh-ranked defense and Byron Scott has coached some excellent defensive teams in both New Jersey and New Orleans.

    But only two teams (Oklahoma City and Charlotte) have regressed more defensively from last season than the Cavs have. We knew they would take a huge step backward on offense (and no team has regressed more on that end), but they haven't been able to maximize their potential because they haven't been getting it done defensively either.

    Cleveland currently ranks 19th in the league defensively, allowing 105.5 points per 100 possessions. If they're to have any chance of making the playoffs, they need to be in the top 10.

    One way they can improve is to do a better job of getting back in transition. Using a simple formula (opponents' fast break points divided by opponents' steals), Cleveland has the fifth worst transition defense in the league.


    A lesson in advanced statistics, courtesy of the New Jersey Nets

    If you were to go by standard statistics, you would think that the Nets are a pretty good defensive team. They're allowing just 95.9 points per game, the eighth fewest in the league. But that number is more about the Nets' pace than the quality of their defense. The Nets play at the slowest pace in the league, just 90.8 possessions per team per 48 minutes.

    If you were then to look at opponents' field goal percentage, you still might think that the Nets are decent defensively. Their opponents are shooting 44.6 percent from the field, the 11th lowest mark in the league. But that doesn't tell the whole story either.

    One of the problems is that the Nets force the fewest turnovers in the NBA, just 12.4 per 100 possessions, which is more than three fewer than the league average. So they allow more shots (from the field or the line) to be taken than other teams do.

    The other problem is that the Nets' opponents attempt 30 free throws per 100 possessions, the sixth most in the league. And trips to the line are more efficient than shots from the field.

    In reality, the Nets have the 17th best defense in the NBA, allowing 105.2 points per 100 possessions. It's an improvement over last season, but it's not as good as it may seem.

    http://www.nba.com/2010/news/feature...ook/index.html
    This is the darkest timeline.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

    Excellent article.

    Originally posted by avoidingtheclowns View Post
    The thought process behind predicting that the Cavs would make the playoffs was a belief that they would be a pretty good defensive team. They have most of the pieces back from last year's seventh-ranked defense and Byron Scott has coached some excellent defensive teams in both New Jersey and New Orleans.

    But only two teams (Oklahoma City and Charlotte) have regressed more defensively from last season than the Cavs have. We knew they would take a huge step backward on offense (and no team has regressed more on that end), but they haven't been able to maximize their potential because they haven't been getting it done defensively either.

    Cleveland currently ranks 19th in the league defensively, allowing 105.5 points per 100 possessions. If they're to have any chance of making the playoffs, they need to be in the top 10.
    That thought process was always crazy.

    They had 2 elite defenders + 1 very good defender last season + average (a couple), mediocre (a lot) and awful (a handful) defenders, that's why they were a good defensive team. They now have 1 elite defender + average, mediocre and awful defenders.

    Scott can't do any better than O'Brien in the last 2 seasons. In fact, he'll probably do worse.

    Analysts (and coaches) love to talk about defensive minded coaches, defensive systems, defensive rotations and all that, but if you don't have the defensive talent on the floor, you're done.

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    • #3
      Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

      Perfect example of using statistics to overthink a situation.

      Really? The Heat aren't as bad as an 8-7 record indicates? No!

      How many of the reasonable fans out there honestly think Miami is a near .500 ball club? Well, if you had fallen into that trap, this article is for you, folks.

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

        Originally posted by avoidingtheclowns View Post
        We knew that the Eastern Conference would be top-heavy, with three elite teams and maybe only five or six teams deserving of playoff spots. And the first four weeks have done nothing to dispel that idea.

        The Celtics and Magic, as expected, are at the top. The Heat are underachieving, but we know they're relatively fine. And the Bulls, after a 2-3 start, already look like the fourth best team in the conference as they wait for Carlos Boozer to return from his hand injury.

        Beyond that? Only the Indiana Pacers have played like a playoff team. The New York Knicks have won five straight games and sit at 8-8, but they've played by far the easiest schedule of the 11 teams not named in the paragraph above.

        Using strength of schedule and point differential, we can get a better feel for which of the bottom 11 teams in the East have really performed best. And what we find (see table) is that the Pacers are indeed for real, the Knicks are taking advantage of a weak schedule, and the Wizards' record is inflated by their two overtime wins over Philly.

        More & more evidence that this thing might just be for real!
        IMO the 4 teams listed below us on the chart (MIL, ATL, Cha, NYK) are the ones who will decide seeds 5-8, with 1 of those staying home.
        "Larry Bird: You are Officially On the Clock! (3/24/08)"
        (Watching You Like A Hawk!)

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        • #5
          Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

          Originally posted by Kraft View Post
          Perfect example of using statistics to overthink a situation.

          Really? The Heat aren't as bad as an 8-7 record indicates? No!

          How many of the reasonable fans out there honestly think Miami is a near .500 ball club? Well, if you had fallen into that trap, this article is for you, folks.
          Well, the article is saying that even now they're better than 8-7. That is, they've played well enough to be first in the East. The conventional wisdom would say that their record will improve and they haven't played well enough to be first in the East yet. There's a difference.

          This is, of course, what Hollinger's been saying all along.

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

            I think the Heat are better than their record and they will improve, but I think they will top out somewhere around 4th in the east. I could see the Pacers as high as 5th mind you (based on recent play, and this article doesn't really disagree), and I want that playoff matchup, because I don't think the Heat are built to win in the playoffs.

            They will get regular season wins because they can out talent most teams, They are going to struggle against good teams with depth and quality bigs.

            I think the idea that they are going to be 1st in the east or win the east is insane, they just don't have the horses.
            "As a bearded man, i was very disappointed in Love. I am gathering other bearded men to discuss the status of Kevin Love's beard. I am motioning that it must be shaved."

            - ilive4sports

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

              You are what your record says you are. This article is insulting.

              It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

              Division Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 1989, 1990, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
              Conference Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 2005
              NBA Champions 1989, 1990, 2004

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                Originally posted by Kstat View Post
                You are what your record says you are. This article is insulting.
                Sure, thats true at the end of the season. At this point your record says a lot more about who you have played.
                "As a bearded man, i was very disappointed in Love. I am gathering other bearded men to discuss the status of Kevin Love's beard. I am motioning that it must be shaved."

                - ilive4sports

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                  its true at any point. Good teams find ways to win despite superior secondary statistics. Bad teams find ways to lose. There's no greater secret.

                  It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

                  Division Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 1989, 1990, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
                  Conference Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 2005
                  NBA Champions 1989, 1990, 2004

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                    I think it's funny how much it seems like the media is grasping at straws and trying to make up excuses or flat out in denial about how bad the heat are at the moment. I think teams have seen enough of what the heat do and have worked out gameplans against it now and until the heat work out a gameplan against it I think they will continue to struggle. I think even Paul George could have done well defensively against the heat their offense is nothing special iso iso iso iso you can afford to ball gawk against the heat cause they have three guys all looking to get their own shot. Last night they ran a little bit of a pick and roll for james against the magic and James is familiar enough with Ilgauskas that he can set him up pretty well for that midrange jumper that had some success against us early on in that game.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                      Average loss of 6.4 points and we beat them by 16? Damn, that 4 seed is looking extremely good right about now.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                        Points differential is a better predictor of future success than a team's W/L record.

                        Winning/losing close games has a lot to do with luck.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                          I don't think wading through and/or interpreting stats like point differentials...particularly at this stage of the season...reveals much.

                          Some teams, but not all, allow teams to get closer. Also, many teams will try harder against certain teams...particularly a team that recently beat them. Other times, teams don't play with as much energy on a back to back. Considering the tiny sample size, I don't think W/L or differential is a decent measuring stick of anything. So, like most stats, the point differentials are just more misinformation. Over the course of a season, I think the stat becomes more valuable...but even then it doesn't tell you that Team A will beat Team B. Too much depends on matchups between teams, health, chemistry, etc.

                          So, I think the conclusion that the Heat are better than their current record right now is impossible to make right now.

                          Edit: As for the Heat, they will dominate teams that cannot exploit its weaknesses like no other team in the league because they have Lebron and DWade. The fact they can dominate in that situation, however, is irrelevant in the playoffs because only the best teams are in the playoffs. Teams that can defend their stars adequately and pound them in the paint will have the advantage IMO. This all reminds me of the star studded Lakers team with Karl Malone, Gary Payton, Shaq, Kobe, etc. that crashed and burned against the Pistons. In that case, they were a complete team with the right pieces and couldn't get it done. These Miami Heat are hardly as scary.
                          Last edited by BlueNGold; 11-25-2010, 08:48 PM.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                            And what we find (see table) is that the Pacers are indeed for real
                            Stats are overrated. This sentence is the only one that matters.
                            It's a new day for Pacers Basketball.

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: Numbers reveal a different story about the Heat (NBA.com)

                              The team with the best regular season record rarely wins the title. After a certain point it comes down to luck (couple shots roll out, opponents roll in) whether you win 57 or 62 games. Advanced stats can help us sort out a strong 52 win team and a weak 57 win team.

                              I'd still take the Lakers to win this year but the Heat are far from finished.

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