Right, you never know the alternate reality, but you do know if you're losing at a good clip now. So the example about AJ and Earl the end of last year is a good one. Why play Earl the end of last year without giving AJ some of his minutes. We would have said that at the time, too.
If they start losing at a good clip, I'll want PG to get as many of Dunleavy's minutes as possible. If they are in the hunt and winning decently I'll not make a peep.
The problem I've had the last few years is no wins and no hope (young players). So I'm watching Luther Head, Stephen Grahm types in February, instead I needed to see Roy Hibbert getting more reps for good or bad. Either way, I'm watching a loss, most likely.
I guess to finally answer the question, you don't know for sure it will be neglible, but you know what your doing now isn't working pretty readily.
The alternate reality things always interesting to me. Should I get a Flu shot, should I not?
Edit, just read Pecks post about JMac vs Murphy. Thats a good counter to my argument, without intending to be. Thats an alternate reality I don't think I personally could project, since it's night and day for style, experience, everything. Being honest, I would have been all for a traditional PF last year, but also, I didn't believe that player was JMac in any way, at the time.