And I'm ok with that. But to say that Josh will lose his spot just because he's injured? When there is evidence that says so?
And I'm ok with that. But to say that Josh will lose his spot just because he's injured? When there is evidence that says so?
you said that "lots" of guys lost their starting spots due to injury and still haven't proved that either.
Two examples that aren't good examples aren't "lots". And Watson did not lose his starting job to Ford, he got it back right after he came back.
And TJ lost his job because he got hurt and then after that there was no reason to play him since we wanted Price to develop.
How are those good examples of players losing jobs to injury?
And in addition when TJ played over Watson he DID play better than Watson.
And when AJ came on he played better than Ford.
None of the evidence that he provides fits.
I would be fine with Tyler getting 24 minutes and Josh the same.
They both need to play with great energy and hustle to be effective.
It would keep both fresh into the playoffs.
Last edited by MLB007; 10-10-2010 at 12:48 AM.
Mcroberts should be starting. Not because of skill, not because he is better than hansbrough. But because he brings the hustle to the floor which we really need.
Hans should come in off the bench when Danny or Roy are out of the game. He is to good of a scorer not to have this role. He can come in and score a quick ten and you don't even know it.
They both have their attributes I think joshes are better suited to be next to Roy and Danny.
The funny part is, your "proof" provides the proof you need to see exactly what we're talking about. You're just lacking the context or information needed to see it.
In January when TJ Ford didn't play with AJ getting a good chunk of the minutes at PG, the team went 7 wins and 10 losses. AJ when given opportunity was running the team well, and continuing to shoot better than he had earlier in the season. He was pushing close to 40% from downtown while scoring 10 points per game and keeping the ball moving. Which is his job.
AJ Price had a concussion in early February. When he was healthy again, he was suddenly only seeing less than 10 minutes per game, or not playing at all. That lasted until March 12. For a month he averaged 20 minutes per game, and when he returned from the injury he averaged 5 minutes per game in garbage time. That my man, is called LOSING YOUR SPOT DUE TO INJURY. During that time the team went 3 wins and 10 losses as well.
To continue this point, during this time TJ averaged less than 10 points per game. He shot 41% during that time period. We all know TJ doesn't run the team well either. Those PPG and shooting percentage were both worse than AJ before he was injured. And your spin on this is that TJ was the "hot hand"? Not quite.
Funny thing is team went 7-10 before the injury. During the time TJ played, they went 3-10. Then when AJ got his spot back at the end of the year the team went 11-6. Hot hand, indeed. Thanks for the "proof".
We have a bunch of "nice guys" on this team, which is great and and an absolute result of having to trade our guys with "attitude" (during games, not Tinsley attitude, more Stephen Jackson and Psycho)
We have been Charmin soft up front for years now.
Roy, Danny, Murphy, Dunleavy, yeh, that'll put the fear for your teeth in you.
I guess you're forgetting last year when Tyler was playing and all the teams we played were *****ing about Tyler's mad bashing going on.
I LOVE McBob's passing skills with Roy, a high/low with those 2 could be a beautiful thing.
But Concrete Block Picks will be the greatest gift anyone could give Danny Granger, and Tyler brings those.
And a forearm shivver to those leaning too hard on Roy will likely have Roy picking up Tylers dinner tab on a regular basis.
Anyone underestimating what a Physical Presence will mean to this team should pay attention moving forward.
Please. Lets not be ridiculous here. All I'm saying is that you guys aren't even seeing the real facts and that you guys have so much Jim hate that you look over the real evidence to fit your theories.
20 minutes on average, played 7 playoff teams. 9 points, 2.4 ast.
That small stretch, we played 7 playoff teams. Concussions are serious and TJ averaged 13 points and 4 asts in 25 minutes, better than Prices 9 points and 2 assists from his January, the definition of outplaying the previous person who had the spot.
TJ played against 12 playoff teams in the 13 games he played. Price played against 7 playoff teams in the 17 games he played. AJ, when he got back, played 9 playoff teams. AJ, in the last stretch of the season, didn't get much better than the 9 points and 2.4 assists. TJ, averaged d TJ averaged 13 points and 4 asts in 25 minutes in one month, and taking away the 4 minute game where he got injured, averaged 8.4 points and and 5.2 assists, still the definition of outplaying the previous person.
And for shooting .410 percent- did you know that it was AJ's shooting percentage for the year? That TJ shot a better percentage than AJ for fg and 3pt in January (.500, .438) than Price did in any point that season? So no, TJ did not shoot a bad percentage. That is just plain out false. TJ was super hot during that stretch.
I don't know why we are even having this argument. In a vacuum, TJ is better than AJ, and I suspect that if TJ wasn't injured, by the beginning of camp TJ would probably be the backup point guard.
In addition- this is one example. McKey fan said that there were "lots", something that hasn't been proven, and this example is half accurate.
Even if we were to accept this, then that is one piece of evidence out of three seasons. That is not a lot and can even be described as circumstantial- February was the trade deadline after all.
But, let me tell you, I'm happy to stop the "arguing" (I prefer to call it a healthy discussion). Because it doesn't feel like you interact with an open mind.
"I like our group of people," Ainge told USA Today. "I'm trying to teach them about basketball, and they're trying to teach me about analytics."
I don't "hate" O'Brien. I've defended him more than once.
You say we fail to see the "facts" that don't fit our theories. Yet you'll stretch reach, and try so hard to twist things to use as a fact. I guarantee you if I felt the need to find the average teams record in those stretches of games and that if it wasn't in your favor you'd go through all the teams and argue that TJ played against better PG's regardless of the teams records we played.
It just never ends when you're so determined to twist every tiny detail to fit your needs. No matter what you're arguing, the stats can be twisted to fit any argument in any direction. Gets old. The fact is anyone watching the games can see the team plays better when AJ is on the floor. I'm not a huge fan of the +/- stat but it supports what I saw on the floor all of last year. AJ was +27 and TJ Ford was -173.
TJ can average more assists, but it's because he holds the ball until the final seconds on the shot clock and stalls the offense. However he occasionally creates something at the end of the shot clock and when he kicks it to someone they're forced to shoot it. Creating an assist.
It's like you don't care anything about the Pacers. It honestly looks like if O'Brien wasn't here, you wouldn't be either. You don't talk about much of anything else.
Last edited by xBulletproof; 10-10-2010 at 02:56 PM.
Is Josh good to go for our next game?
TJ's skill set is much harder to replicate- and in the right system, makes him an average to above average starter. While it may not be evident in the Pacers system, TJ's career speaks to that.
Well, because it's true. And you aren't going through the average record, and neither am I till it is proven that that stat goes against my favor. Because it probably doesn't. Just by looking at the teams TJ played against (NOR, Hou) vs AJ's non playoff teams (NYK, Was), it's pretty evident that that piece of evidence is in my favor.
What do you mean I stretch reach? The numbers back me up. The Win Loss doesn't, but then the mythical five game win streak looks so good by just win loss and not by looking at opponents records, which is where the five game win streak falls apart.
Well, lets see. Ignoring all the suppositions you've made about me, lets go into the meat of the argument here.
The way I look at basketball is through watching the game, and then going through a lot of stats to find out why certain things happened. I can assure you that if I make a statement about something, it's because I take the stats that I believe to be the most important and compare that to what I observe with the game, and make a judgement on it. So, when it comes to this case, I saw that TJ was playing really well that month (I was commenting at the time about how TJ seemed to have turned a corner), and that he was outplaying the PG's we had during the season. But I don't just trust what I see- I go to the numbers- which show that TJ had a great month (better than any other month a Pacers point guard has had), and that his assists were good (supported by how well he was kicking out), and that while his turnovers are high, a team can win because his assist to turnover ratio was about on par to what the rest of the point guards were bringing thus far.
Now, you have a point about the plus minus- I don't know where you got it from but I'm assuming 82games, and I'm assuming thats for the year and not for a month to month comparison. I don't know where to find that data but I'll go look for a monthly breakdown of plus minus and I feel that is better representation of the stats.
For the record here, we are arguing that players lost their starting spots due to injury. I am aruging here that this is not the case- TJ simply outplayed AJ and got the nod. We haven't even argued about Watson, who after returning from his two game absence did not see a drop in minutes and played just as much as he was before.
So really, I don't know why that is even an example- when he didn't lose minutes at all- he was out 2 games for personal reason and came back and played as many if not more minutes.
Which goes down to AJ vs TJ- and the breakdown says that TJ produced better and should have gotten the spot.
Now the counter presented by you is that AJ had a better record as a starter- and the other was that TJ was shooting worse, which I have already dis proven concisely.
AJ did have a better record- but the quality of competition is worse. Are we just solely going by W/L? Sure, if you want to do that, go ahead- but that's short sighted. We saw down the stretch that the Padres had a huge lead on the Giants going into the last month based off of W/L, but if we looked at the numbers more closely we saw that the Padres didn't have a big lead at all due to quality of opponents played so far and the quality of remaining opponents. I think that wins and losses must be quantified by the quality of the opponent- which is where AJ's record falls apparent.
Now, you counter saying that I stretch numbers and facts to fit my views. Well, whats the point of statistics without analysis? What numbers am a I stretching? Shooting percentage is shooting percentage. Turnover to Assist ratios are turnover to assist ratios. I can't screw with the numbers. I can't give AJ less assists magically and give TJ more. I just apply analysis to them and use them as proof of my arguments. If that's stretching then I am guilty of that. And what is the point of facts if they can't be used to argue a point?
I feel like the above paragraphs are things that are all reasonable conclusions. Am I wrong? Because to me, all of this logic disproves the argument that Jim
A: Allows people to lose their jobs due to injury
B: Has had a lot of evidence to that fact for the past 3 seasons
C: Was the sole reason that TJ got more minutes than AJ- because AJ lost his job due to his injury and that was the reason he got replaced.
All three fail in the face of my evidence.
And I keep on getting comments that I take these Jim comments personally, well- I usually don't unless people talk about how I work for Jim or am related to him, or accuse me of being on the board solely to defend Jim. I mean, that seems to attack me personally instead of attacking Jim right? Especially if an attack on Jim attacks me personally for liking Jim as a coach. It's hard to separate when one attack is levied both at the coach and the person defending the coach.
As far as the discussion, TJ Ford shot well because nobody guarded him. He was shooting what? 1 of 26 from 3 point range going into the month? I'd hope an NBA guard can make shots with nobody guarding them. You claim you watch the games, but if you're watching them and think TJ Ford is better for the team than AJ Price is, then that's all that needs to be said, really. I have yet to watch a game and think "Wow, TJ is running this team well". Travis Best Jr, he is.
You live off stats, and very little in the realities of what happened during the game unless it shows up on your box score. It's pretty obvious. You probably loved Troy Murphy as well.
How did you get that by using the word "please" I am taking it personally? I'm just using it to dismiss your claims as much as you use your words to dismiss mine. I just use one word. Because some of the claims made such as "Lots of guys lost their starting position last year after an injury. Except Murphy, of course."
Lots so far is one example at best. That's ridiculous to use LOTS to mean 1.
If the statement was: one person lost their (backup) position last year after an injury.
Ok, fine. That's defensible. But Lots? Starting Positions?
That's just not true. That's ridiculous. That's not what Jim O'Brien does. No facts back up that claim at all. How is that me taking it personally? Thats like me being insulted if you told me the Sun revolved around the Earth.
If I replied "please", does that mean I am taking it personally?
Why do you take my words and put them to different meanings and different contexts? It's getting old, honestly. I've been a good sport about it now but don't make my words into something they aren't.
How long have you been here? I was the biggest Murphy fan here aside from Trophy. And the accusations you lay on me are the same as Hollinger, and in both cases they are untrue and border on asinine on the stats community as a whole.
TJ was just in a shooting slump- and got benched in the process. He came back, showed he could make threes, and in that specific month (which is where we are arguing about) he made a bunch of threes and made open shots and was passing the ball really well. He deserved to start.
And that STILL doesn't disprove that AJ lost his starting spot to injury. You still haven't proved that either Watson or AJ lost his spot to injury. Watson's pretty much open and shut that he didn't, and AJ is debatable.
AJ could have lost his spot because TJ was playing better. But if you think that TJ wasn't playing better then the only explanation for TJ playing over AJ is because AJ got injured and then lost his spot because of the injury, and your proof is that AJ had a better record and won more games, well then, how does that prove that he lost his spot specifically because of the injury?
Right now you are arguing that AJ is the better player and because of that he should start. That's debatable but I'll give you that point. And I can even see why you think he was better last year. But to say that because AJ was the better player, he got injured, he was healthy, but he didn't play because he got injured takes a large leap from that step. But even if you think that, there is still evidence that TJ was playing better than AJ in that stretch.
And even if I concede that point, that AJ lost his spot because of an injury- that is one case in three seasons. Not enough to say that this is a trend and that the same thing will happen to McRoberts.
Last edited by BlueNGold; 10-10-2010 at 05:49 PM.
Thanks. And no, I wasn't going to hide that. I'm still here touting how Murphy's loss will mean a lot worse rebounding and his loss is more significant than any gain made by our PG upgrade (which I'm on record as saying is minimal).
And I have a lot of confidence that I will be right in all accounts.
I can't imagine he will be playing.
Last year when Price got a concussion they initially listed his injury as a neck issue. From watching the tape of Howard clocking him, that would be my guess as to McRoberts problem as well. No reason to rush him back with a concussion, even if its very minor, for a preseason game.
Anyway, I don't have time to type up the very long list of reasons why we are better off with Collison and X playing over TJ and Murphy. I expect the record will reflect this along with growth of the players...but it is a complex subject when you factor in a rookie like Paul George getting minutes...missing a high volume of shots...missing assignments...basically learning. Combine that with the fact this team has numerous inexperienced players you will understand why the likes of Orlando and Houston spanked us.
In any event, I think you even have to admit JOb looks stubborn in your avatar...
Haha yeah..I personally view it as grumpy. Maybe he was watching a play with TJ running the point.
I cant wait to see who's right this season. It's at least going to be a fun and long arguing season this year =)