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Thread: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

  1. #101
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    Default Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

    Quote Originally Posted by cordobes View Post
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    Heh, those guys didn't fail for their ball-hogging - at least it wasn't the primary factor, even if it was a contributing one. For some it wasn't a factor at all.

    Allen Iverson was the prototypical ball-dominant guard and he had one of the best years of his career under O'Brien. Lead the league in PPG, had his career high in APG and assist rate, and an above average efficiency (relatively to his career average). Pierce had All-NBA seasons under O'Brien wasting lots of possessions all by himself and combining insanely high usage rates with good scoring efficiency. Of course, if a guy like Jones who suffers from severe tunnel vision is going to stop the ball every time he touches it and go for a clearout when he's not even a scorer, or a guy like Ford will nonchalantly bounce it around for 10 seconds with everybody standing and watching O'Brien won't like it. Neither would I or anyone else.

    Anyway more to the point, I don't think O'Brien will give Collison the same type of freedom those guys had or allow him to play the same way he was used in New Orleans (and, to a certain extent, in college). And that's probably good for Collison, he'll be used more in cuts and take more standstill 3s, something he does very efficiently. But he'll give him plenty of opportunities to create plays for his teammates to finish. If the bigs do a good job as screeners, he'll have plenty of screenball action. The Pacers don't really have many quality screeners, but he's used to New Orleans lousy screeners, who would take an eternity to set the pick and more often than not wouldn't even bother to finalize the movement and get wide, forcing their guards to play the pick with no proper pick there, so it'll always be an improvement for him.

    Difficult to say how well he'll fit without seeing it (and Collison is still a work in progress as a player), but I wouldn't say it's a bad fit a priori.

    There are two major differences in the above examples and the Pacers situation, which I'm sure you'd agree with:

    1) O'Brien ran the pick and roll MUCH more frequently with Philadelphia than he does with the Pacers (hence the assists and extra penetration)

    2) Both Allen Iverson and Paul Pierce were the star players on their respective teams. Darren Collison is not.

    Of the many common threads in all of Jim O'Brien's offenses, one of them is that the star players, the focus of the offense, are the ones allowed to dribble until the clock runs out. Pierce did it (and Walker to an extent), Iverson did it, and Granger does it.

    Other than that, there are very few rules/disciplines to O'Brien's offense, especially with his point guards (other than looking for the shot first and shooting lots of threes). I disagree with Count's notion in another thread that O'Brien had a different plan for each of our point guards. He doesn't have much of a plan..what we saw from Earl last season is exactly the way he played last year while Scott Brooks was early in his tenure as a coach. What we saw from T.J. and A.J. was non-disciplined play.

    IF we play the same style of offense this season as we have in the past, we're going to see the same Darren Collison that we saw at UCLA under Ben Howland's non-disciplined offense. And that's a lot of dribbling.

    A lot of this sounds negative, and I understand why. I like Collison and I've been one to suggest getting him over the other options. Read my past posts. I just think people should temper their expectations on what Collison will do this year. Maybe he'll surprise me and show me I'm wrong, but point guard is not a position where a player will flourish in O'Brien's current system.
    Last edited by imawhat; 08-12-2010 at 10:43 PM.

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  3. #102
    This Thing Is Working® O'Bird's Avatar
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    Default Damn good.

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    he was a pass first point guard in college. I heard a sportscaster out of NO last night say that Collison is a pure point guard, always looking to get his teammates involved.

    I guess we'll see
    If you look at points who played at least 40 games and at least 25 minutes per, he was eighth in assists per 40 minutes (Nawlins played a medium tempo); that puts him between Calderon and Devin Harris.

    What shots is he getting his teammates? (Bearing in mind that the Hornets shoot a lot of midrange jumpers.) Assists at the rim, he was 11th in the league, again per 40 minutes; under 10 feet, 15th; 10 to 15 feet, 4th; 16 to 23 feet, 10th.

    Of course, to get an assist you have to not just get a guy a good pass; he's got to be able to make the shot, too. So it's worth tracking him against Chris Paul, his teammate in the same offense and with a similar mix of players. NO was fifth in the league in attempts from 10-15, and you can see from comparing their two point guards how this is reflected in their assists. It's interesting to see how his assists show the same peaks and valleys as his teammate:

    Chris Paul at the rim, 5th; under 10, 12th; 10-15, 3rd; 16 to 23 feet, 2nd.

    Collison was a turnover-prone rookie, and by far the biggest share of those was passing turnovers.

    The age of the "pass first" point guard is long gone; you've got to have guys who can make shots at every position - the scouting is too good and the defenses are too sophisticated. But it's plainly apparent that Darren Collison is looking to get the ball to his teammates.

    Larry called him a "complete player" - well, he needs to cut down the turnovers in a big way, and get to the line more; but Legend wasn't talking through his hat.
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  5. #103

    Default Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

    Adding to imawhat's post about Collison's stamina:


    Basketball Reference shows Collison had 20 games in a row during February and March (when he was starting in place of Chris Paul) of playing more than 40 minutes a game. This includes a game of 48 minutes against the Clippers on 3/15 after running with the Suns for 41 minutes the night before.

    Who wouldn't look winded, playing at that pace?
    And I won't be here to see the day
    It all dries up and blows away
    I'd hang around just to see
    But they never had much use for me
    In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

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  7. #104
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    Default Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

    Quote Originally Posted by imawhat View Post
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    Perfect? He's a ball dominant guard: the worst trait any O'Brien player can have. Ball dominance has never worked in O'Brien's system; look at the list of casualties: Tinsley, Ford, Dahntay, Luther Head, Diogu, Stephen Graham, etc. etc. etc.
    1) Collison is not a "ball dominant guard";

    2) In fact, ball dominance doesn't work in any system, depending on how you're defining that nebulous phrase. Paul Pierce, Allen Iverson, and Danny Granger certainly have had the ball in their hands quite a bit in O'Brien's systems; you might not be ready to put Darren Collison in the same class as those players - if you're not, you'd have a point there - but he has the same triple-threat capability as they do;

    3) The players you list are a surprising group if you're claiming that they didn't work out because they dominated the ball. Tinsley, for example, left for other reasons, of course, but the problem with his play was not so much that he had the ball so much as that what he did with the ball was so grossly unproductive (terrible shooter, turns it over, busts plays). We could put Ford in the same little leaking boat, and then go down your list (lingering for a moment to enjoy the spectacle of Ike Diogu banished from O'Brienland for his ball-dominant ways; fortunately for him he went on to realize his true potential on the... what team was it, again, where he became a big star?).

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  8. #105
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    Default Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

    Quote Originally Posted by imawhat View Post
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    Both Allen Iverson and Paul Pierce were the star players on their respective teams. Darren Collison is not.
    Doesn't matter. But I think you'll find that Larry Bird, for one, thinks that Collison has star potential at least. Because he's very quick and has good handles, he can get anywhere he wants in the frontcourt, and then he shoots well from all angles and all ranges (including he's a AA free-throw shooter). That's a recipe for a clutch performer who can get you a lot of points, also known as a "star".

    Quote Originally Posted by imawhat View Post
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    Of the many common threads in all of Jim O'Brien's offenses, one of them is that the star players, the focus of the offense, are the ones allowed to dribble until the clock runs out. Pierce did it (and Walker to an extent), Iverson did it, and Granger does it.
    The players you mention all had healthy assist rates and FT attempts. It doesn't seem strange to set your star players up to use their skills, especially if they're also helping the other guys contribute. And this image of a player dribbling out the clock doesn't look like any of the Jim O'Brien offenses I've seen; Jim wants to attack early to make it easy to churn the defense and get a good shot before the defense gets organized.

    Quote Originally Posted by imawhat View Post
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    Other than that, there are very few rules/disciplines to O'Brien's offense, especially with his point guards (other than looking for the shot first and shooting lots of threes).
    Now I doubt that you understand the offense.

    Quote Originally Posted by imawhat View Post
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    ... point guard is not a position where a player will flourish in O'Brien's current system.
    Collison has all the tools to flourish in the Pacers' offense, the way that Granger has and Mike Dunleavy did before his surgery. I'm confident that he will. But it'll give us something to compare notes on during the long winter nights.

    To be continued!
    :
    Last edited by O'Bird; 08-13-2010 at 04:26 PM. Reason: thought of something better
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  9. #106
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    Default Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

    Sorry I just asked this question in another thread but I should have asked it here... so here it is....

    Question....

    Out of all the PG's that came out of last years draft where would you rank him as far as....

    How good he is now...

    and

    How much potential he has...

    Just a quick look at the PG's selected in last years draft...

    Evans, Curry, Price, Jennings, Rubio, Flynn, Teague, Lawson, Holliday, Maynor, Beaubois, Douglass.....

    Just Curious...

  10. #107

    Default Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

    Quote Originally Posted by imawhat View Post
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    There are two major differences in the above examples and the Pacers situation, which I'm sure you'd agree with:

    2) Both Allen Iverson and Paul Pierce were the star players on their respective teams. Darren Collison is not.

    Of the many common threads in all of Jim O'Brien's offenses, one of them is that the star players, the focus of the offense, are the ones allowed to dribble until the clock runs out. Pierce did it (and Walker to an extent), Iverson did it, and Granger does it.
    Fully agreed, especially with the bolded part.

    1) O'Brien ran the pick and roll MUCH more frequently with Philadelphia than he does with the Pacers (hence the assists and extra penetration)
    With Boston too. But how could he have the Pacers running more pick'n'rolls? With which players? In my view, that only suggests that as long as he has players that can play the screen/ball game he'll use it.

    Quote Originally Posted by imawhat View Post
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    Other than that, there are very few rules/disciplines to O'Brien's offense, especially with his point guards (other than looking for the shot first and shooting lots of threes). I disagree with Count's notion in another thread that O'Brien had a different plan for each of our point guards. He doesn't have much of a plan..what we saw from Earl last season is exactly the way he played last year while Scott Brooks was early in his tenure as a coach. What we saw from T.J. and A.J. was non-disciplined play.

    IF we play the same style of offense this season as we have in the past, we're going to see the same Darren Collison that we saw at UCLA under Ben Howland's non-disciplined offense. And that's a lot of dribbling.
    Yeah, I agree Collison has a natural tendency to overdribble. Not sure what was Count's point, but the way I see it, O'Brien will allow guys who make things happen to dominate the ball (like Iverson or Pierce, as you said), but he'll demand a player like Collison to move the ball more, and a player like the worst TJ Ford to do it even more. Ford is inept off-the-ball (size, no jump-shot, no cuts), but Collison, in spite of his size, should be able to do it. Ford was also inept on-the-ball with Indiana, but I'm expecting Collison to be more competent making things happen in terms of screenball action and penetration.

    Quote Originally Posted by imawhat View Post
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    A lot of this sounds negative, and I understand why. I like Collison and I've been one to suggest getting him over the other options. Read my past posts. I just think people should temper their expectations on what Collison will do this year. Maybe he'll surprise me and show me I'm wrong, but point guard is not a position where a player will flourish in O'Brien's current system.
    Fair enough, I also think it's wise to not expect Collison to put the numbers he had in New Orleans. Even if he progresses as a player, O'Brien won't run a PG-centric offense that allows those kind of numbers. But I think he can be an important player in the team - like Kenny Anderson in Boston but with a larger role in terms of playmaking due to the different type of roster.

  11. #108

    Default Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

    Quote Originally Posted by Really? View Post
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    Sorry I just asked this question in another thread but I should have asked it here... so here it is....

    Question....

    Out of all the PG's that came out of last years draft where would you rank him as far as....

    How good he is now...

    and

    How much potential he has...

    Just a quick look at the PG's selected in last years draft...

    Evans, Curry, Price, Jennings, Rubio, Flynn, Teague, Lawson, Holliday, Maynor, Beaubois, Douglass.....

    Just Curious...
    Top Tier
    1. Evans (not a PG though)
    2. Rubio
    3. Curry
    4. Jennings

    Second tier
    5. Beaubois (not a pure PG as well)

    Third tier
    6. Collison
    6. Holiday

    Fourth tier
    9.Lawson
    10.Teague
    11.Maynor
    12. Douglas
    13. Flynn

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