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Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

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  • #91
    Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

    I have read a lot about Collison the past 24 hours, most of it in this forum. Honestly, the only thing that concerns me about him is whether he'll be injury prone because of his slight frame. I suppose any player can be injury prone and you never know until they try to play 82 games a year 35 minutes per game.


    here is his own website
    http://www.darrencollison.com/


    Draft express
    http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...Collison-1149/


    if you scroll down a little there aere several articles about his days at UCLA
    http://articles.latimes.com/keyword/...son/featured/2


    This is short but interesting
    http://images.si.com/vault/article/m...7626/index.htm


    Wait, I just realize Collison and Westbrook were in the same backcourt? wow


    here is an article right after the Hornets drafted him
    http://blog.nola.com/hornetsbeat/200...elieve_uc.html


    This is interesting, it diesucsses why he fell in the draft, and his final four matchup with Derrick Rose
    http://www.oberjuerge.com/http:/www....own-the-drain/
    Last edited by Unclebuck; 08-12-2010, 02:50 PM.

    Comment


    • #92
      Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

      Originally posted by Unclebuck View Post
      I have read a lot about Collison the past 24 hours, mopst of it in this forum. Honetly, the only think that concerns me about him is whether he'll be injury prone because of his slight frame. I suppose any player can be injury prone and you never know until they try to play 82 games a year 35 minutes per game.


      here is his own wedsite
      http://www.darrencollison.com/

      Draft express
      http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...Collison-1149/

      if you scroll down a little there aere several articles about his days at UCLA
      http://articles.latimes.com/keyword/...son/featured/2
      The beat reporter from NO said he wore down late in the year, but that's not uncommon with rookies. Honestly, I think we should target 30 minutes a night, with Price & Stephenson getting the rest.

      If I haven't traded or bought out Ford by the time training camp starts, I cut him. **** whatever marginal (and it will be marginal) trade value he might possibly have if somebody gets hurt. I don't want him anywhere near this rotation.

      Comment


      • #93
        Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

        Still we have the dark rays shining through this thread. I'm seeing him placed under people who have never performed better than him. Look at his 34 games he started last year, and look at his stats, compared to others. The proof is in the pudding folks.

        Collison has proven he can be a top 5 PG in this league, and he did it in his rookie year. Damn near 20-10 as a rookie when he started, and a triple double on us to boot.

        I'm also not worried about Wall or the bigger PGs out there. That is why we have Lance IMO. I feel like the FO is confident Lance will be at long term contributor at PG/SG.

        Hell and now I won't be calling for O'Briens head if he plays Collison/Stephenson, or Price/Stephenson. Thats two PGs on the floor like Jimmy likes to do. Only it is light year ahead of Watson/Ford etc.

        So where are all these other PGs who are so capable of getting 20-10 as a rookie? While shooting a GREAT percentrage.

        Collison will be the best PG we ever had. Thank you for playing Mark Jackson. The end.

        Comment


        • #94
          Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

          Originally posted by McKeyFan View Post
          I think this is over thinking it. Reminds me of a MLB manager putting in a left handed batter at the end of the game because of a right handed pitcher, but he replaced your guy who is really clutch. Over analysis.

          Collison and Lance are both gamers (at least it seems that way). Lance looked phenomenal at seeing and understanding what was happening on the court and where people needed to be. He'll figure out how to work it best with Collison at point.

          They have the right mindset. They'll figure out who should get the ball and how the team should score. I'm sorry, but Brandon Rush does not have the same savvy, mental toughness, and creative abilities.
          I disagree.

          Basketball has a lot to do with on court chemsitry and versitility. Collison and Lance do pretty much the same things. And WANT to do the same things. Both need to dominate the ball in order to be successful. So it's tough to play them at the same time.

          Comment


          • #95
            Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

            Originally posted by McKeyFan View Post
            I think this is over thinking it. Reminds me of a MLB manager putting in a left handed batter at the end of the game because of a right handed pitcher, but he replaced your guy who is really clutch. Over analysis.

            Collison and Lance are both gamers (at least it seems that way). Lance looked phenomenal at seeing and understanding what was happening on the court and where people needed to be. He'll figure out how to work it best with Collison at point.

            They have the right mindset. They'll figure out who should get the ball and how the team should score. I'm sorry, but Brandon Rush does not have the same savvy, mental toughness, and creative abilities.
            I agree with this. Confidence is half the game and they both have that. Collison is a distributor and Lance is a consumer. Both can handle the rock. I can already see Collison and other players passing to Lance as he goes up in traffic. Brandon is going to have to beat out Lance and maybe Paul George to get minutes. If Dunleavy is healthy, all of these guys will be fighting for minutes.

            Comment


            • #96
              Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

              Originally posted by Pacers2012 View Post
              DC2 might be in the class of Star pg in 2yrs. If he can average 20 n 10 like he showed he is acapble of last year and defend the best pgs.
              I love the idea of a 20/10 PG as much as the next guy, but if you overhype the kid that much you're going to be sorely disappointed.

              I'll be thrilled if he can run the team well, defend his position, and put up 12/6. 20/10 gets him an All-Star appearance.
              This space for rent.

              Comment


              • #97
                Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

                Originally posted by Anthem View Post

                I'll be thrilled if he can run the team well, defend his position, and put up 12/6. 20/10 gets him an All-Star appearance.
                I'm hoping for 16/6 with some insane 50/45/90 shooting going on.

                I'm hoping for way too much on the shooting side of things.

                I don't care though.
                "man, PG has been really good."

                Comment


                • #98
                  Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

                  "Still we have the dark rays shining through this thread."

                  I may be coming off as pessimistic in this thread, but I'm actually posting potential negative things (from sources) to temper my own expectations, which were initially we are getting another Chris Paul. I don't see how any Pacers fan is not excited by the future, while acknowledging that our very young team is not necessarily "good" right now.

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

                    Originally posted by Anthem View Post
                    I love the idea of a 20/10 PG as much as the next guy, but if you overhype the kid that much you're going to be sorely disappointed.

                    I'll be thrilled if he can run the team well, defend his position, and put up 12/6. 20/10 gets him an All-Star appearance.
                    It's fun new toy syndrom :P

                    Comment


                    • Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

                      Originally posted by count55 View Post
                      The beat reporter from NO said he wore down late in the year, but that's not uncommon with rookies.
                      I disagree with their beat reporter. I never got that impression by watching him throughout the season. Plus, look at these stats, sorted by month.

                      FG%
                      Nov.- .419
                      Dec.- .387
                      Jan.- .434
                      Feb.- .496
                      Mar.- .509
                      Apr.- .529

                      3 PT FG%
                      Nov.- .333
                      Dec.- .200
                      Jan.- .429
                      Feb.- .378
                      Mar.- .485
                      Apr.- .545

                      A/TO
                      Nov.- 2.42
                      Dec.- 1.50
                      Jan.- 2.15
                      Feb.- 1.73
                      Mar.- 2.52
                      Apr.- 2.57

                      A player that wears down is not shooting better from the field/three point-line as the season progresses while improving their assist-to-turnover ratio, especially while logging increasing minutes.

                      Comment


                      • Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

                        Originally posted by cordobes View Post
                        Heh, those guys didn't fail for their ball-hogging - at least it wasn't the primary factor, even if it was a contributing one. For some it wasn't a factor at all.

                        Allen Iverson was the prototypical ball-dominant guard and he had one of the best years of his career under O'Brien. Lead the league in PPG, had his career high in APG and assist rate, and an above average efficiency (relatively to his career average). Pierce had All-NBA seasons under O'Brien wasting lots of possessions all by himself and combining insanely high usage rates with good scoring efficiency. Of course, if a guy like Jones who suffers from severe tunnel vision is going to stop the ball every time he touches it and go for a clearout when he's not even a scorer, or a guy like Ford will nonchalantly bounce it around for 10 seconds with everybody standing and watching O'Brien won't like it. Neither would I or anyone else.

                        Anyway more to the point, I don't think O'Brien will give Collison the same type of freedom those guys had or allow him to play the same way he was used in New Orleans (and, to a certain extent, in college). And that's probably good for Collison, he'll be used more in cuts and take more standstill 3s, something he does very efficiently. But he'll give him plenty of opportunities to create plays for his teammates to finish. If the bigs do a good job as screeners, he'll have plenty of screenball action. The Pacers don't really have many quality screeners, but he's used to New Orleans lousy screeners, who would take an eternity to set the pick and more often than not wouldn't even bother to finalize the movement and get wide, forcing their guards to play the pick with no proper pick there, so it'll always be an improvement for him.

                        Difficult to say how well he'll fit without seeing it (and Collison is still a work in progress as a player), but I wouldn't say it's a bad fit a priori.

                        There are two major differences in the above examples and the Pacers situation, which I'm sure you'd agree with:

                        1) O'Brien ran the pick and roll MUCH more frequently with Philadelphia than he does with the Pacers (hence the assists and extra penetration)

                        2) Both Allen Iverson and Paul Pierce were the star players on their respective teams. Darren Collison is not.

                        Of the many common threads in all of Jim O'Brien's offenses, one of them is that the star players, the focus of the offense, are the ones allowed to dribble until the clock runs out. Pierce did it (and Walker to an extent), Iverson did it, and Granger does it.

                        Other than that, there are very few rules/disciplines to O'Brien's offense, especially with his point guards (other than looking for the shot first and shooting lots of threes). I disagree with Count's notion in another thread that O'Brien had a different plan for each of our point guards. He doesn't have much of a plan..what we saw from Earl last season is exactly the way he played last year while Scott Brooks was early in his tenure as a coach. What we saw from T.J. and A.J. was non-disciplined play.

                        IF we play the same style of offense this season as we have in the past, we're going to see the same Darren Collison that we saw at UCLA under Ben Howland's non-disciplined offense. And that's a lot of dribbling.

                        A lot of this sounds negative, and I understand why. I like Collison and I've been one to suggest getting him over the other options. Read my past posts. I just think people should temper their expectations on what Collison will do this year. Maybe he'll surprise me and show me I'm wrong, but point guard is not a position where a player will flourish in O'Brien's current system.
                        Last edited by imawhat; 08-12-2010, 10:43 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Damn good.

                          Originally posted by Unclebuck View Post
                          he was a pass first point guard in college. I heard a sportscaster out of NO last night say that Collison is a pure point guard, always looking to get his teammates involved.

                          I guess we'll see
                          If you look at points who played at least 40 games and at least 25 minutes per, he was eighth in assists per 40 minutes (Nawlins played a medium tempo); that puts him between Calderon and Devin Harris.

                          What shots is he getting his teammates? (Bearing in mind that the Hornets shoot a lot of midrange jumpers.) Assists at the rim, he was 11th in the league, again per 40 minutes; under 10 feet, 15th; 10 to 15 feet, 4th; 16 to 23 feet, 10th.

                          Of course, to get an assist you have to not just get a guy a good pass; he's got to be able to make the shot, too. So it's worth tracking him against Chris Paul, his teammate in the same offense and with a similar mix of players. NO was fifth in the league in attempts from 10-15, and you can see from comparing their two point guards how this is reflected in their assists. It's interesting to see how his assists show the same peaks and valleys as his teammate:

                          Chris Paul at the rim, 5th; under 10, 12th; 10-15, 3rd; 16 to 23 feet, 2nd.

                          Collison was a turnover-prone rookie, and by far the biggest share of those was passing turnovers.

                          The age of the "pass first" point guard is long gone; you've got to have guys who can make shots at every position - the scouting is too good and the defenses are too sophisticated. But it's plainly apparent that Darren Collison is looking to get the ball to his teammates.

                          Larry called him a "complete player" - well, he needs to cut down the turnovers in a big way, and get to the line more; but Legend wasn't talking through his hat.
                          :
                          :

                          "Defense doesn't break down on the help, it breaks down on the recovery." - Chuck Daly

                          "The first shot does not beat you." - Chuck Daly

                          "To play defense and not foul is an art that must be mastered if you are going to be successful." - Chuck Daly

                          Comment


                          • Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

                            Adding to imawhat's post about Collison's stamina:


                            Basketball Reference shows Collison had 20 games in a row during February and March (when he was starting in place of Chris Paul) of playing more than 40 minutes a game. This includes a game of 48 minutes against the Clippers on 3/15 after running with the Suns for 41 minutes the night before.

                            Who wouldn't look winded, playing at that pace?
                            And I won't be here to see the day
                            It all dries up and blows away
                            I'd hang around just to see
                            But they never had much use for me
                            In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

                            Comment


                            • Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

                              Originally posted by imawhat View Post
                              Perfect? He's a ball dominant guard: the worst trait any O'Brien player can have. Ball dominance has never worked in O'Brien's system; look at the list of casualties: Tinsley, Ford, Dahntay, Luther Head, Diogu, Stephen Graham, etc. etc. etc.
                              1) Collison is not a "ball dominant guard";

                              2) In fact, ball dominance doesn't work in any system, depending on how you're defining that nebulous phrase. Paul Pierce, Allen Iverson, and Danny Granger certainly have had the ball in their hands quite a bit in O'Brien's systems; you might not be ready to put Darren Collison in the same class as those players - if you're not, you'd have a point there - but he has the same triple-threat capability as they do;

                              3) The players you list are a surprising group if you're claiming that they didn't work out because they dominated the ball. Tinsley, for example, left for other reasons, of course, but the problem with his play was not so much that he had the ball so much as that what he did with the ball was so grossly unproductive (terrible shooter, turns it over, busts plays). We could put Ford in the same little leaking boat, and then go down your list (lingering for a moment to enjoy the spectacle of Ike Diogu banished from O'Brienland for his ball-dominant ways; fortunately for him he went on to realize his true potential on the... what team was it, again, where he became a big star?).

                              :
                              :

                              "Defense doesn't break down on the help, it breaks down on the recovery." - Chuck Daly

                              "The first shot does not beat you." - Chuck Daly

                              "To play defense and not foul is an art that must be mastered if you are going to be successful." - Chuck Daly

                              Comment


                              • Re: Prediction time: How good will Collison be in two years

                                Originally posted by imawhat View Post
                                Both Allen Iverson and Paul Pierce were the star players on their respective teams. Darren Collison is not.
                                Doesn't matter. But I think you'll find that Larry Bird, for one, thinks that Collison has star potential at least. Because he's very quick and has good handles, he can get anywhere he wants in the frontcourt, and then he shoots well from all angles and all ranges (including he's a AA free-throw shooter). That's a recipe for a clutch performer who can get you a lot of points, also known as a "star".

                                Originally posted by imawhat View Post
                                Of the many common threads in all of Jim O'Brien's offenses, one of them is that the star players, the focus of the offense, are the ones allowed to dribble until the clock runs out. Pierce did it (and Walker to an extent), Iverson did it, and Granger does it.
                                The players you mention all had healthy assist rates and FT attempts. It doesn't seem strange to set your star players up to use their skills, especially if they're also helping the other guys contribute. And this image of a player dribbling out the clock doesn't look like any of the Jim O'Brien offenses I've seen; Jim wants to attack early to make it easy to churn the defense and get a good shot before the defense gets organized.

                                Originally posted by imawhat View Post
                                Other than that, there are very few rules/disciplines to O'Brien's offense, especially with his point guards (other than looking for the shot first and shooting lots of threes).
                                Now I doubt that you understand the offense.

                                Originally posted by imawhat View Post
                                ... point guard is not a position where a player will flourish in O'Brien's current system.
                                Collison has all the tools to flourish in the Pacers' offense, the way that Granger has and Mike Dunleavy did before his surgery. I'm confident that he will. But it'll give us something to compare notes on during the long winter nights.

                                To be continued!
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                                Last edited by O'Bird; 08-13-2010, 04:26 PM. Reason: thought of something better
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