I think that's fair. And if you're a judge, or the gm, etc. then the more moderate view is the right one.
But, if you recall, this all happened right in the midst of Artestgage, Jacksongate and a couple of other gates. It was perfect fodder for a nice, old school over reaction.
Plus, I'm just a guy making amateurish prognostications on a message board. But, on that one, I happened to be right. Wished I had been wrong.