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As usual, a discussion worth having here on the original board, started by T-Bird.
http://www.pacersdigest.com/wordpress/?p=106
http://www.pacersdigest.com/wordpress/?p=106
Tbird topics: Discussion of the rotations available to the Pacers in 2010-2011
By thunderbird1245, on July 18th, 2010
The Pacers current roster is filled with role players and misfit parts that don’t always fit together or compliment each other very well. While that can potentially change with additional moves this summer and beyond, likely we will head into this 2010-2011 season with a roster that is pretty similar to what we already have. With that in mind, I wanted to go inside the mind of a coaching staff’s thinking on how to best use the chess pieces we have to choose from, and see if we can figure out a consensus on what both will and should happen come November.
———————————————— ———————————–
Let’s first name the current roster, in no particular order.
TJ Ford, AJ Price, Lance Stephenson, Danny Granger, Brandon Rush, Mike Dunleavy Jr, Dahntay Jones, Paul George, Tyler Hansbrough, Troy Murphy, Roy Hibbert, Solomon Jones, Jeff Foster, Magnum Rolle, and Josh McRoberts.
Like many recent seasons, the spots 11-15 on our roster are better than average. Unfortunately that doesn’t mean much when it comes to winning. Still, there are worse things than having decent depth with potential to grow and improve.
———————————————— ———————————–
One of the things that infuriates me with fans on here and elsewhere is the constant bickering about players not playing enough minutes that rank among your end of bench guys. The most important thing in NBA basketball (and sports in general) is to play your top guys as much as possible. Rarely do your roster spots 11-15 make a major difference in winning and losing long term.
A coach needs to decide first how many guys in a given game he is comfortable with playing, based on his own belief system and the roster he is given.
In general, it is extremely difficult to play more than 10 guys in a given game any meaningful minutes, and only rarely do coaches even feel comfortable playing that many. The best teams usually rotate 8 guys, or in some cases 9, on a regular basis. This only makes sense, as it gets your best overall players the vast majority of the minutes.
Let’s examine the details and patters than go into an 8 man rotation.
———————————————— ——————————–
An 8 man rotation is the norm for most coaches in playoff games or crucial times throughout a season. This can usually be done in 2 different ways:
Starting PG, Back up PG…..48 minutes split up between them.
Starting wing, starting wing, back up wing….96 minutes split up between all three of them.
Starting big, starting big, back up big…..96 minutes split up between all three of them.
This rotational plan means you need the elusive “player X” in your frontcourt, a player capable of playing WITH your biggest guy, and also being capable of actually BEING your biggest guy on the floor.
The only Pacers capable of that type of responsibility right now are young and raw Magnum Rolle, the inexperienced Josh McRoberts or the wily oft injured Jeff Foster. In other words, we have no one who can be relied on to play 30 minutes a night to fill this role by himself.
Basically, this traditional type of 8 man rotation doesn’t work for us this year. We still desperately need a “player X” who is a high quality player.
———————————————— ———————————–
Another 8 man rotation plan works like this:
Starting PG, starting SG, and combo guard who backs up both of them. 96 minutes of playing time for those 2 spots available.
Starting SF, starting PF, and a combo forward who can play either position. 96 minutes of playing time for those 2 spots available.
Starting C and a backup C, with 48 minutes available between them.
This style perhaps makes more sense for our current roster. We have a combo guard in Lance Stephenson, and we have the combo forward (in my opinion) in Danny Granger. But it doesn’t leave much time for our plethora of wing men, so we’d be leaving some decent players on the bench on a regular basis. It is hard to trade guys who never play, so if we want to try and package any of these guys at the deadline for future parts, they need to play some.
———————————————— ———————————–
The Pacers this year I think will have to be forced to go very oddly in how they rotate their players. Their roster imbalance combined with a lack of talent means they are going to need to be creative to get the maximum out of this divergent roster. Since this year needs to be a developmental year for our young guys more than it needs to be about winning, we need to rotate more players in and out of the lineup. Much like what Hubie Brown did with Memphis a few years ago, this will take out of the box thinking, and it will not be easy to do. Our staff will need to sub early and often, and be willing to make multiple substitutions at a time, subbing 3 and even 4 players at a time, thereby perhaps using our depth as an advantage rather than a nuisance.
Here is what I would personally do, though I am sure almost no one will agree with me on here, and I highly doubt the coaching staff or front office will agree either:
I’d rotate players like this:
PG: I’d start AJ Price, and play him about 24 minutes a night. I’d give TJ Ford about 16, and Lance Stephenson 8. I’d start AJ, bring Stephenson off the bench every game in the first quarter to finish it out, and, then always start TJ Ford at the beginning of the second quarter.
Ford would have a regular role that way, and can playing with bench guys at the beginning of the second quarter he can come in looking to be a scorer, which in reality is the best use of his talents anyway. Price would play the first 6 minutes of the game, get a long rest, then come in and finish the first half.
I’d use the same basic rotation in the second half…..start and finish with Price, use Lance in a short burst, the start TJ in the 4th quarter looking for offense.
———————————————— ———————————-
Now let’s skip the Center position.
Roy Hibbert obviously starts, and he desperately needs to learn to play more minutes somehow for us to be successful. Unrealistic to a point, because he never has played major minutes at this level or in college. Still, I think we need to force feed him to play more, getting him up to 30 minutes a night. Put Hibbert in for at least that amount.
Next you have a big gaping hole at back up C. For now, we have a decrepit Jeff Foster or a somewhat undersized Josh McRoberts, who seems to be thought of as perimeter guy by this staff.
To me, I give Josh McRoberts these 18 minutes a night and make Foster inactive or on the bench most nights, until McRoberts proves he can’t guard the opponents biggest guys.
This means that for me, I’d instruct Josh to try and get stronger and more physical, and be an above average athleticism “5″ than some sort of poor man’s version of Murphy.
Make no mistake, I think Foster is better and more useful as a player still than McRoberts, as I am not a big fan of McRoberts unlike many of you. Still, it makes no sense to rely on Foster to play every night, since his back and legs are so brittle at this point. It is time to move on from Foster for us.
Possibly, it might make a little sense early in the year to play Hibbert and McRoberts a bit less and carve out 8-10 minutes a game for Foster, just to showcase him a little and let everyone know he is healthy enough to trade for. But if we plan on keeping Jeff around, he likely will be inactive most of the time.
———————————————— ———————————–
So I’ve already gone unconventional and used 5 guys (at least) for 2 spots….let’s continue on:
Now we have 3 spots left. In the Pacers current system, those are really all 3 perimeter players, no matter how you categorize them or label them.
Who would I start?
If defense is really important to you, then you need to start your best defensive player. And if your first round pick has as much promise as I think he does, I’d start him too….no reason to wait!
So, I’d start Brandon Rush, Paul George, and Danny Granger.
That gives you:
PG: Price
SG: Rush
F: George
F: Granger
C: Hibbert
You’d have 144 minutes of available playing time for the 2, 3, and 4 spots available. You have the 3 guys I recommend starting, plus Murphy, Hansbrough, Dahntay Jones, Stephenson, Rolle, Dunleavy and Solomon Jones to account for.
Solomon Jones is easy…..I’d make him inactive.
I’d start Paul George at the beginning of each half, play him 6 minutes to get his feet wet, and then re evaluate after 20 games or so. Let’s give Paul George 12 useful minutes a night on average, though some nights he could come back in later if we were way ahead or behind.
Granger is our best player. Let’s give him 36 minutes per night, leaving us with 96 minutes to still divvy up.
Rush is our best defender and best percentage 3 point shooter….plus he is a good guy to use as tradebait, so he has to play. I’d give him about 26 minutes a night.
70 minutes to go. I want to give Lance another 8 minutes playing off the ball instead of at the PG, just to use him and develop him. That gives Lance 16 minutes of run per night, which is about the right number to work him in initially until we see what we have. That leaves 62 minutes left.
You can see the problems starting to develop. I have Murphy, Dunleavy, Rolle, Hansbrough, and D. Jones left, with only 62 minutes between them.
Murphy, despite being a player I don’t personally like, is clearly a player the organization thinks highly of. Until we deal him hopefully, he is going to play and we all know that. Let’s give him 30 minutes a night, leaving us with 32 left.
That means I am playing Dunleavy only 16 minutes per night, Hansbrough 16 minutes a night, benching D. Jones, and making Rolle inactive.
Tough choices, and perhaps somewhat unrealistic…..but that is how I see it right now from my point of view. Our roster is log jammed enough that somebody decent is going to be tied to the bench. The Pacers need to make a deal to thin the ranks out and save some money it would appear to me. As it is, I have a veteran useful player like Foster listed as inactive, along with a promising rookie in Magnum Rolle. Plus, I have a solid veteran in Jones tied to the bench. I personally would play Jones over Dunleavy, but I know that is unrealistic, as we need to showcase Dunleavy to show he is healthy.
———————————————— ————————————
So in summary, this is how I see it:
PG Price 24, Ford 16, Stephenson 8
Wings/flex 4: (3 at a time) Granger 36, Rush 26, George 12, Hansbrough 16, Dunleavy 16, Stephenson 8, Murphy 30
C: Hibbert 30, McRoberts 18
DNP: Coaches decision: Dahntay Jones
Inactive: Soloman Jones, Foster, Rolle
This means playing an 11 man rotation, almost unheard of in coaching circles. Expect unhappy players, strife among the coaching staff, and alot of grumbling from everyone if we keep trying to balance things this way. You can also expect quite a bit of losing unfortunately.
———————————————— ————————————
Bringing Murphy off the bench would be an outstanding move for us, as it would limit the amount of time he’d play next to Hibbert. A good goal for the Pacers to try and become more efficient would be to try and limit the amount those 2 are on the floor together to about 30% of the time or less. That is my reasoning, plus it makes sense for us to show other teams Murphy can be useful off the bench to a contender, as we shop him around the deadline.
Going forward, we need to think about how to best set our roster up so we can use a more conventional 8, 9, or 10 man rotation. Playing 11 is not the ideal scenario to be successful, yet I see that as our best chance as I type this on Sunday July 18, 2010.
———————————————— ———————————-
As always, the above is just my opinion.
Tbird
By thunderbird1245, on July 18th, 2010
The Pacers current roster is filled with role players and misfit parts that don’t always fit together or compliment each other very well. While that can potentially change with additional moves this summer and beyond, likely we will head into this 2010-2011 season with a roster that is pretty similar to what we already have. With that in mind, I wanted to go inside the mind of a coaching staff’s thinking on how to best use the chess pieces we have to choose from, and see if we can figure out a consensus on what both will and should happen come November.
———————————————— ———————————–
Let’s first name the current roster, in no particular order.
TJ Ford, AJ Price, Lance Stephenson, Danny Granger, Brandon Rush, Mike Dunleavy Jr, Dahntay Jones, Paul George, Tyler Hansbrough, Troy Murphy, Roy Hibbert, Solomon Jones, Jeff Foster, Magnum Rolle, and Josh McRoberts.
Like many recent seasons, the spots 11-15 on our roster are better than average. Unfortunately that doesn’t mean much when it comes to winning. Still, there are worse things than having decent depth with potential to grow and improve.
———————————————— ———————————–
One of the things that infuriates me with fans on here and elsewhere is the constant bickering about players not playing enough minutes that rank among your end of bench guys. The most important thing in NBA basketball (and sports in general) is to play your top guys as much as possible. Rarely do your roster spots 11-15 make a major difference in winning and losing long term.
A coach needs to decide first how many guys in a given game he is comfortable with playing, based on his own belief system and the roster he is given.
In general, it is extremely difficult to play more than 10 guys in a given game any meaningful minutes, and only rarely do coaches even feel comfortable playing that many. The best teams usually rotate 8 guys, or in some cases 9, on a regular basis. This only makes sense, as it gets your best overall players the vast majority of the minutes.
Let’s examine the details and patters than go into an 8 man rotation.
———————————————— ——————————–
An 8 man rotation is the norm for most coaches in playoff games or crucial times throughout a season. This can usually be done in 2 different ways:
Starting PG, Back up PG…..48 minutes split up between them.
Starting wing, starting wing, back up wing….96 minutes split up between all three of them.
Starting big, starting big, back up big…..96 minutes split up between all three of them.
This rotational plan means you need the elusive “player X” in your frontcourt, a player capable of playing WITH your biggest guy, and also being capable of actually BEING your biggest guy on the floor.
The only Pacers capable of that type of responsibility right now are young and raw Magnum Rolle, the inexperienced Josh McRoberts or the wily oft injured Jeff Foster. In other words, we have no one who can be relied on to play 30 minutes a night to fill this role by himself.
Basically, this traditional type of 8 man rotation doesn’t work for us this year. We still desperately need a “player X” who is a high quality player.
———————————————— ———————————–
Another 8 man rotation plan works like this:
Starting PG, starting SG, and combo guard who backs up both of them. 96 minutes of playing time for those 2 spots available.
Starting SF, starting PF, and a combo forward who can play either position. 96 minutes of playing time for those 2 spots available.
Starting C and a backup C, with 48 minutes available between them.
This style perhaps makes more sense for our current roster. We have a combo guard in Lance Stephenson, and we have the combo forward (in my opinion) in Danny Granger. But it doesn’t leave much time for our plethora of wing men, so we’d be leaving some decent players on the bench on a regular basis. It is hard to trade guys who never play, so if we want to try and package any of these guys at the deadline for future parts, they need to play some.
———————————————— ———————————–
The Pacers this year I think will have to be forced to go very oddly in how they rotate their players. Their roster imbalance combined with a lack of talent means they are going to need to be creative to get the maximum out of this divergent roster. Since this year needs to be a developmental year for our young guys more than it needs to be about winning, we need to rotate more players in and out of the lineup. Much like what Hubie Brown did with Memphis a few years ago, this will take out of the box thinking, and it will not be easy to do. Our staff will need to sub early and often, and be willing to make multiple substitutions at a time, subbing 3 and even 4 players at a time, thereby perhaps using our depth as an advantage rather than a nuisance.
Here is what I would personally do, though I am sure almost no one will agree with me on here, and I highly doubt the coaching staff or front office will agree either:
I’d rotate players like this:
PG: I’d start AJ Price, and play him about 24 minutes a night. I’d give TJ Ford about 16, and Lance Stephenson 8. I’d start AJ, bring Stephenson off the bench every game in the first quarter to finish it out, and, then always start TJ Ford at the beginning of the second quarter.
Ford would have a regular role that way, and can playing with bench guys at the beginning of the second quarter he can come in looking to be a scorer, which in reality is the best use of his talents anyway. Price would play the first 6 minutes of the game, get a long rest, then come in and finish the first half.
I’d use the same basic rotation in the second half…..start and finish with Price, use Lance in a short burst, the start TJ in the 4th quarter looking for offense.
———————————————— ———————————-
Now let’s skip the Center position.
Roy Hibbert obviously starts, and he desperately needs to learn to play more minutes somehow for us to be successful. Unrealistic to a point, because he never has played major minutes at this level or in college. Still, I think we need to force feed him to play more, getting him up to 30 minutes a night. Put Hibbert in for at least that amount.
Next you have a big gaping hole at back up C. For now, we have a decrepit Jeff Foster or a somewhat undersized Josh McRoberts, who seems to be thought of as perimeter guy by this staff.
To me, I give Josh McRoberts these 18 minutes a night and make Foster inactive or on the bench most nights, until McRoberts proves he can’t guard the opponents biggest guys.
This means that for me, I’d instruct Josh to try and get stronger and more physical, and be an above average athleticism “5″ than some sort of poor man’s version of Murphy.
Make no mistake, I think Foster is better and more useful as a player still than McRoberts, as I am not a big fan of McRoberts unlike many of you. Still, it makes no sense to rely on Foster to play every night, since his back and legs are so brittle at this point. It is time to move on from Foster for us.
Possibly, it might make a little sense early in the year to play Hibbert and McRoberts a bit less and carve out 8-10 minutes a game for Foster, just to showcase him a little and let everyone know he is healthy enough to trade for. But if we plan on keeping Jeff around, he likely will be inactive most of the time.
———————————————— ———————————–
So I’ve already gone unconventional and used 5 guys (at least) for 2 spots….let’s continue on:
Now we have 3 spots left. In the Pacers current system, those are really all 3 perimeter players, no matter how you categorize them or label them.
Who would I start?
If defense is really important to you, then you need to start your best defensive player. And if your first round pick has as much promise as I think he does, I’d start him too….no reason to wait!
So, I’d start Brandon Rush, Paul George, and Danny Granger.
That gives you:
PG: Price
SG: Rush
F: George
F: Granger
C: Hibbert
You’d have 144 minutes of available playing time for the 2, 3, and 4 spots available. You have the 3 guys I recommend starting, plus Murphy, Hansbrough, Dahntay Jones, Stephenson, Rolle, Dunleavy and Solomon Jones to account for.
Solomon Jones is easy…..I’d make him inactive.
I’d start Paul George at the beginning of each half, play him 6 minutes to get his feet wet, and then re evaluate after 20 games or so. Let’s give Paul George 12 useful minutes a night on average, though some nights he could come back in later if we were way ahead or behind.
Granger is our best player. Let’s give him 36 minutes per night, leaving us with 96 minutes to still divvy up.
Rush is our best defender and best percentage 3 point shooter….plus he is a good guy to use as tradebait, so he has to play. I’d give him about 26 minutes a night.
70 minutes to go. I want to give Lance another 8 minutes playing off the ball instead of at the PG, just to use him and develop him. That gives Lance 16 minutes of run per night, which is about the right number to work him in initially until we see what we have. That leaves 62 minutes left.
You can see the problems starting to develop. I have Murphy, Dunleavy, Rolle, Hansbrough, and D. Jones left, with only 62 minutes between them.
Murphy, despite being a player I don’t personally like, is clearly a player the organization thinks highly of. Until we deal him hopefully, he is going to play and we all know that. Let’s give him 30 minutes a night, leaving us with 32 left.
That means I am playing Dunleavy only 16 minutes per night, Hansbrough 16 minutes a night, benching D. Jones, and making Rolle inactive.
Tough choices, and perhaps somewhat unrealistic…..but that is how I see it right now from my point of view. Our roster is log jammed enough that somebody decent is going to be tied to the bench. The Pacers need to make a deal to thin the ranks out and save some money it would appear to me. As it is, I have a veteran useful player like Foster listed as inactive, along with a promising rookie in Magnum Rolle. Plus, I have a solid veteran in Jones tied to the bench. I personally would play Jones over Dunleavy, but I know that is unrealistic, as we need to showcase Dunleavy to show he is healthy.
———————————————— ————————————
So in summary, this is how I see it:
PG Price 24, Ford 16, Stephenson 8
Wings/flex 4: (3 at a time) Granger 36, Rush 26, George 12, Hansbrough 16, Dunleavy 16, Stephenson 8, Murphy 30
C: Hibbert 30, McRoberts 18
DNP: Coaches decision: Dahntay Jones
Inactive: Soloman Jones, Foster, Rolle
This means playing an 11 man rotation, almost unheard of in coaching circles. Expect unhappy players, strife among the coaching staff, and alot of grumbling from everyone if we keep trying to balance things this way. You can also expect quite a bit of losing unfortunately.
———————————————— ————————————
Bringing Murphy off the bench would be an outstanding move for us, as it would limit the amount of time he’d play next to Hibbert. A good goal for the Pacers to try and become more efficient would be to try and limit the amount those 2 are on the floor together to about 30% of the time or less. That is my reasoning, plus it makes sense for us to show other teams Murphy can be useful off the bench to a contender, as we shop him around the deadline.
Going forward, we need to think about how to best set our roster up so we can use a more conventional 8, 9, or 10 man rotation. Playing 11 is not the ideal scenario to be successful, yet I see that as our best chance as I type this on Sunday July 18, 2010.
———————————————— ———————————-
As always, the above is just my opinion.
Tbird
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