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Thread: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

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    White and Nerdy Anthem's Avatar
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    Default Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    This is kinda cool.

    http://ilevy.wordpress.com/2010/07/0...sh-an-apology/

    In my less than complimentary analysis, I looked at some numbers assessing Rush’s defensive production. The idea was that maybe his defensive production, which is not always captured accurately by PER, outweighed his sub-par production in other areas. In that initial analysis I looked at some numbers and found his defensive impact to be pretty minimal.

    I signed up for a MySynergy sports account last week, and one of the first things I did was look at Rush’s defensive stats, with the idea of revisiting this issue. What I found was quite surprising. The first thing that popped out at me was that he held his counterpart to a FG% under 40.0% in all seven possession categories tracked by Synergy. Impressed by these numbers I looked for some other players for comparison.
    He's got lotsa charts, but I figure posting them in the thread might drain his bandwidth to much. Head over and read the post, then let me know what you think.

    Short version: Of the players examined, only Ron Artest had a lower PPP (points per possession). Apparently not many people are scoring efficiently on Brandon.
    Last edited by Anthem; 07-03-2010 at 05:36 PM.
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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Could it be we are so weak defensively at other positions people just exploit them while not worrying about attacking Brandon? I realize there are many factors, and Brandon is a good defender, but I would think this has to be part of it.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quote Originally Posted by joew8302 View Post
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    Could it be we are so weak defensively at other positions people just exploit them while not worrying about attacking Brandon? I realize there are many factors, and Brandon is a good defender, but I would think this has to be part of it.
    That would only impact the frequency, I'd think, not the ratios.

    Actually you could make the case that if our other positions were stronger defensively, that Brandon's forced turnover ratio (his weakest area) would actually IMPROVE, since the player he's guarding wouldn't be able to easily pass to another player and reset the play.
    Last edited by Anthem; 07-03-2010 at 06:16 PM.
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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quote Originally Posted by joew8302 View Post
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    Could it be we are so weak defensively at other positions people just exploit them while not worrying about attacking Brandon? I realize there are many factors, and Brandon is a good defender, but I would think this has to be part of it.
    I suppose, but this takes into account # of possessions too, and he seems to have been worked at as often as the others on the list. Any way you look at it these are some impressive numbers.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Good points all. No doubt Brandon is a solid defender, even very good. His offense will probably never catch up to his defense.

    The main question is will Brandon ever be good enough to be a starting caliber two guard on a good team?

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    great post, im thrilled to see someone in support of Rush and not overlooking his defensive abilities. in regard to one question about him ever starting.. i look it like if Rush were on the Pacers sqaud when Miller was about 35, Rush would have been a great backup sg and replacement for when Miller retired.

    were wanting to get back to that level of play, Rush would nver have started on that team.. but he would have been Reggies replacement about 27 or 28, then you have an experienced shooting gaurd with solid defense.

    rush just isnt ready, some players are right off the get go.. everyone overlooks rush since he does not score a ton of pts.. but his defensive is underappreciated. he has the quickness, he just needs to work on his shooting. i wonder if JOB's system has not stunted some of his development as well.

    Rush could be a very solid player for us when/if we ever return to a championship level status.

    thats why i just dont understand why some on here want to see him traded to acquire a pg. then were going to need a shooting gaurd, b/c no one knows how George will do. Rush is not going to get any worse than he is right now.. might as well see how George comes along and let Rush's value only increase.

    trade the expirings, not young assets or draft picks!!!!

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quote Originally Posted by joew8302 View Post
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    The main question is will Brandon ever be good enough to be a starting caliber two guard on a good team?
    In other words, could he eventually become Bruce Bowen / Shane Battier?

    I think that's achievable.
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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    In other words, could he eventually become Bruce Bowen / Shane Battier?

    I think that's achievable.
    Battier's a bit different. His defensive abilities go further than his perimeter defense. Bowen's a decent comparison though.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quote Originally Posted by joew8302 View Post
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    Good points all. No doubt Brandon is a solid defender, even very good. His offense will probably never catch up to his defense.

    The main question is will Brandon ever be good enough to be a starting caliber two guard on a good team?
    Many seem to view how good of a player you are or how worthy you are of starting by looking at your ppg stat. I definitely disagree with that, and I believe Rush could be a starter on a good team as long as he was in the right situation. He'd probably need at least two really good scorers in the lineup at other positions. He needs to have a decent PG and bigmen who are decent at kicking it out. He's never going to be great at shot creation, so he needs teammates who can set him up. Lastly, he can't have other guys gunning perimeter shots, which eats into his offensive production. Brandon rarely turns over the ball and tends to take good shots, but if he doesn't have help from teammates setting him up, he can't create his own shots and shoots a crappy FG%. When he gets open for 3's, he can drain them, but he's not going to be able to score much in 1-on-1 situations. He's just not very good at that. An ideal situation for him is having a couple scorers draw attention away from him, giving him opportunities to catch and shoot outside. He can thrive at guarding the team's best wing on the other end. Actually, Bowen had a similar game in some ways, but I think Rush could end up being more versatile than Bowen.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Nice. This is pretty much what I requested from Hicks a few weeks ago, with a slightly different list of players. See below:

    http://www.pacersdigest.com/showpost...6&postcount=20


    There's no doubt that Brandon is an underrated defender that is consistently on his game. It's too bad that he doesn't get the recognition he deserves because he decides not to take bad shots (and therefore has a low scoring average).

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Brandon is already a great Defender and looks like these charts only back that up. I honestly dont understand why everyone is hating on Rush? He is not a star and never will be. If he was on a team with more talent, fans would love him. We would guard the other teams best player, knock down clutch 3's, and not make stupid mistakes.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    I believe that Rush is a pretty good defensive player. His misfortune is that he plays a position that typically (for most teams anyway) is needed to provide more offensive output than what Rush seems willing (or maybe capable) of providing.

    One way of getting around this problem is for his offensive play to become extremely efficient. Maybe he doesn't take as many shots, but perhaps begins to hit them at a very good rate for an SG. His turnover to assist ratio can improve. And, even though maybe he won't be the designated perimeter shooter, he finds ways to get to the free throw line.

    He has an opportunity to finally provide us with someone at the SG position who can be a fine defender. But he just has to solve his offensive puzzles. Either become a better scorer or become an extremely efficient offensive player, despite how many points he scores.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    the problem is that even though he is playing good defense, offense is still 4v5
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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quote Originally Posted by beast23 View Post
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    One way of getting around this problem is for his offensive play to become extremely efficient. Maybe he doesn't take as many shots, but perhaps begins to hit them at a very good rate for an SG. His turnover to assist ratio can improve. And, even though maybe he won't be the designated perimeter shooter, he finds ways to get to the free throw line.
    I think a key problem he's having here is that he's poor at shot creation. He can hit open shots; he actually has the highest 3-pt percentage on the team. But he needs help from his teammates setting him up or his shooting percentage bottoms out. I'm hopefully that the PG we get is a real floor general rather than a 3-pt specialist. Hibbert and Rush in particular would benefit from having a good floor general.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    I think if Brandon could learn to attack the basket and hit a high % of his free throws, a lot of the hate would (or at least should) go away.

    At this point, I'd prefer we simply view him as a 3rd wing and keep looking for an answer at the starting SG position (if we're lucky, that could be George) while not trading Brandon.

    But if Brandon is the key to acquiring a good starting PG, we may have to make that sacrifice.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quote Originally Posted by imawhat View Post
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    It's too bad that he doesn't get the recognition he deserves because he decides not to take bad shots (and therefore has a low scoring average).
    His FG% does not really support this assertion about his shot selection.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    I've been saying this for a while: Brandon Rush should focus all his energy on being a tenacious defender and a three point shooter. If he can play A defense and make open threes, then he's very valuable in the Bruce Bowen mold.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quote Originally Posted by BornReady View Post
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    the problem is that even though he is playing good defense, offense is still 4v5
    I'm not the biggest fan of Brandon by a long shot, but he at least draws attention (or should, anyway) from defenders with his ability to hit outside shots. Dude did shoot 41% from 3.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quote Originally Posted by BornReady View Post
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    the problem is that even though he is playing good defense, offense is still 4v5
    This is seriously a great post.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quote Originally Posted by OrganizedConfusion View Post
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    His FG% does not really support this assertion about his shot selection.
    He was 18th in the NBA last season in 3 point shooting. His FG% supports it.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quick someone e-mail that link to every GM in the league and see what we can get for him.

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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    What does "4v5" mean?
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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quote Originally Posted by Putnam View Post
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    What does "4v5" mean?
    Four versus Five.

    Which is ridiculous. I never saw a possession last year where Rush's man backed off and didn't guard him. I've seen it with Dale Davis and with Foster, but never with Rush.
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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    I wish the blogger had listed possessions as percent of all possessions rather than the raw number. I was trying to look at how the number of opportunities of each type affected the overall results for each player.

    How many pick and rolls did the Pacers' opponents run last year, compared to the NBA in general? And how did that affect Rush's results?
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    Default Re: Brandon Rush's Defense (statistical breakdown)

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    Four versus Five.

    Which is ridiculous. I never saw a possession last year where Rush's man backed off and didn't guard him. I've seen it with Dale Davis and with Foster, but never with Rush.

    Right. Rush wasn't assertive, but he wasn't invisible either.
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